Arena run #966

meanrev-v1openaiopenai/gpt-5.2-proEUsuccess
Arena
Run status
as_of: 2026-03-31T10:31:52.715854+00:00
started_at: 2026-03-31T12:56:01.750202+00:00
finished_at: 2026-03-31T12:58:19.574540+00:00
duration_ms: 137817
Inputs
{
  "as_of": "2026-03-31T10:31:52.715854+00:00",
  "dry_run": false,
  "selected": [
    {
      "symbol": "FUTR_CFD.UK",
      "selection_reason": "1D -21.2%; deeply below MA200 (-37.8%) and MA50 (-23.8%) -> strong oversold setup for 2-10d rebound (earnings/news unknown).",
      "mean_reversion_score": 88
    },
    {
      "symbol": "CBG_CFD.UK",
      "selection_reason": "1D -26.6%; below MA50 (-22.1%) and below MA200 (-13.4%) -> sharp selloff with room for snapback (earnings/news unknown).",
      "mean_reversion_score": 84
    },
    {
      "symbol": "UTG_CFD.UK",
      "selection_reason": "1D -8.3%; far below MA200 (-32.1%) and below MA50 (-13.5%) -> persistent downtrend + recent dip for mean-reversion bounce (earnings/news unknown).",
      "mean_reversion_score": 80
    },
    {
      "symbol": "ICG_CFD.UK",
      "selection_reason": "1D -15.2%; below MA200 (-16.2%) and below MA50 (-12.3%) -> oversold vs key MAs, moderate vol vs other extremes (earnings/news unknown).",
      "mean_reversion_score": 74
    },
    {
      "symbol": "OCDO_CFD.UK",
      "selection_reason": "1D -21.1%; below MA200 (-15.8%) and slightly below MA50 (-5.5%) -> large down day with potential short-term retracement (earnings/news unknown).",
      "mean_reversion_score": 72
    }
  ],
  "simulate_only": false,
  "strict_replay": false,
  "universe_symbols": [
    "CRST_CFD.UK",
    "MSLH_CFD.UK",
    "BOY_CFD.UK",
    "LMP_CFD.UK",
    "PHP_CFD.UK",
    "PAGE_CFD.UK",
    "FUTR_CFD.UK",
    "ESNT_CFD.UK",
    "ICG_CFD.UK",
    "JDW_CFD.UK",
    "MCG_CFD.UK",
    "SHC_CFD.UK",
    "PAG_CFD.UK",
    "INVP_CFD.UK",
    "SYNT_CFD.UK",
    "LIO_CFD.UK",
    "RHIM_CFD.UK",
    "UTG_CFD.UK",
    "CBG_CFD.UK",
    "TPK_CFD.UK",
    "EMG_CFD.UK",
    "PZC_CFD.UK",
    "DOM_CFD.UK",
    "OCDO_CFD.UK",
    "HWDN_CFD.UK",
    "LRE_CFD.UK",
    "ABDN_CFD.UK",
    "BBY_CFD.UK",
    "CMCX_CFD.UK",
    "BYIT_CFD.UK",
    "CMBT_CFD.BE",
    "ATG_CFD.UK"
  ]
}
Outputs
{
  "actions": {
    "buy": [
      {
        "reason": "BUY: Top mean_reversion_score (88). Selection notes sharp 1D drop (-21.2%) and deep discounts vs MA200/MA50 (earnings/news unknown), fitting 2–10d rebound profile. Adds a new position without exceeding max_positions.",
        "symbol": "FUTR_CFD.UK",
        "position_size": 3000
      },
      {
        "reason": "BUY: High mean_reversion_score (84). Selection notes extreme 1D selloff (-26.6%) and below MA50/MA200 (earnings/news unknown), consistent with short-term mean-reversion. Uses remaining buy slot this run.",
        "symbol": "CBG_CFD.UK",
        "position_size": 3000
      }
    ],
    "hold": [
      {
        "reason": "HOLD: Existing position is moderately below avg_price (241.04 vs 249.47). No risk/news inputs provided and sell would be churn under the mean-reversion mandate.",
        "symbol": "ADBE_CFD.US"
      },
      {
        "reason": "HOLD: Small unrealized gain (~22) and position is near entry (2.02 vs 2.005). No strong reason to rotate given buy limits are better used for higher-scored oversold candidates.",
        "symbol": "COTY_CFD.US"
      },
      {
        "reason": "HOLD: Currently below avg_price (1050.725 vs 1127.41). No catalyst/risk data provided; maintain for potential mean-reversion rather than crystallizing losses.",
        "symbol": "FICO_CFD.US"
      },
      {
        "reason": "HOLD: Underwater (172.2 vs 185.0). No new information indicating thesis break; avoid overtrading.",
        "symbol": "IWG_CFD.UK"
      },
      {
        "reason": "HOLD: Underwater (1079.0 vs 1215.0). With no provided risk event, keep position to allow rebound/mean-reversion.",
        "symbol": "PSN_CFD.UK"
      },
      {
        "reason": "HOLD: Underwater (509.88 vs 535.2). No news/earnings info supplied; avoid unnecessary turnover.",
        "symbol": "ULTA_CFD.US"
      },
      {
        "reason": "HOLD: Already at ~fixed size (461.2 last_price; unrealized ~0). Candidate list flags oversold setup, but adding would be an incremental change; prefer HOLD to avoid overtrading.",
        "symbol": "UTG_CFD.UK"
      },
      {
        "reason": "HOLD: Largest unrealized loss in book (137.29 vs 159.76). No risk/catalyst inputs provided; retain for potential snapback rather than forced selling.",
        "symbol": "ZS_CFD.US"
      }
    ],
    "sell": []
  },
  "portfolio_rationale": "Maintain existing positions to avoid churn and allow mean-reversion to play out (no risk/news/earnings data provided to justify exits). Deploy the limited 2 buys into the highest-scored oversold candidates (FUTR, CBG) while staying within constraints: max_positions 10 (moving from 8 to 10) and gross leverage remains below 3.0 given fixed ~3,000 position sizing."
}
Prompts & responses
#1885openrouteropenai/gpt-5.2-pro2026-03-31T12:56:01.790476+00:00
System prompt
You are an Arena strategy executor. You must follow the strategy rules strictly and output ONLY valid JSON. You are NOT allowed to invent prices, fundamentals, earnings dates, or sentiment. If a field is null/empty, treat it as unknown. You are a constrained selector (no narrative).
User prompt
{"task": "stage1_universe_scan", "region": "EU", "strategy": {"key": "meanrev-v1", "name": "Two-Stage LLM Mean-Reversion (Arena v1)", "rules": {"max_positions": 10, "max_buys_per_run": 2, "avoid_overtrading": true, "max_sells_per_run": 2, "max_gross_leverage": 3.0, "fixed_position_size": 3000.0, "universe_symbols_eu": [], "universe_symbols_us": []}}, "selection_rules": {"horizon": "2-10 trading days", "target": "short-term mean reversion in liquid equities", "constraints": ["Select exactly 5 candidates", "Avoid earnings within 5 trading days (if known)", "Avoid highly binary/event-driven moves (if known)", "Avoid sector concentration: max 1 per sector unless clearly justified (sector may be unknown)"]}, "universe": [{"symbol": "CRST_CFD.UK", "name": "CREST NICHOLSON HOLDINGS", "sector": "", "last_price": 167.8, "change_1d_pct": 24.85119047619049, "distance_from_ma200_pct": 1.2720261375977815, "distance_from_ma50_pct": 17.82963155418549, "volatility_20d_pct": 158.46878099582966, "market_cap_usd": null, "avg_daily_volume_usd": null, "days_to_next_earnings": null, "earnings_confirmed": null, "news_sentiment_score": null, "news_headlines_last_3": [], "data_quality_note": "snapshot_ok_prices_technicals_only"}, {"symbol": "MSLH_CFD.UK", "name": "MARSHALLS PLC", "sector": "", "last_price": 179.0, "change_1d_pct": 2.052451539338662, "distance_from_ma200_pct": -18.41965657865713, "distance_from_ma50_pct": 4.539832012082234, "volatility_20d_pct": 102.90810964969117, "market_cap_usd": null, "avg_daily_volume_usd": null, "days_to_next_earnings": null, "earnings_confirmed": null, "news_sentiment_score": null, "news_headlines_last_3": [], "data_quality_note": "snapshot_ok_prices_technicals_only"}, {"symbol": "BOY_CFD.UK", "name": "BODYCOTE PLC", "sector": "", "last_price": 775.4, "change_1d_pct": 24.163330664531625, "distance_from_ma200_pct": 28.652243313347768, "distance_from_ma50_pct": 18.63612217470385, "volatility_20d_pct": 103.46484337510964, "market_cap_usd": null, "avg_daily_volume_usd": null, "days_to_next_earnings": null, "earnings_confirmed": null, "news_sentiment_score": null, "news_headlines_last_3": [], "data_quality_note": "snapshot_ok_prices_technicals_only"}, {"symbol": "LMP_CFD.UK", "name": "LONDONMETRIC PROPERTY PLC", "sector": "", "last_price": 214.0, "change_1d_pct": 11.57455683003128, "distance_from_ma200_pct": 12.507879494597773, "distance_from_ma50_pct": 10.77384329331672, "volatility_20d_pct": 54.89150861607771, "market_cap_usd": null, "avg_daily_volume_usd": null, "days_to_next_earnings": null, "earnings_confirmed": null, "news_sentiment_score": null, "news_headlines_last_3": [], "data_quality_note": "snapshot_ok_prices_technicals_only"}, {"symbol": "PHP_CFD.UK", "name": "PRIMARY HEALTH PROPERTIES", "sector": "", "last_price": 107.7, "change_1d_pct": 10.518214468958442, "distance_from_ma200_pct": 11.915056783642308, "distance_from_ma50_pct": 10.278080977082226, "volatility_20d_pct": 53.84238650296991, "market_cap_usd": null, "avg_daily_volume_usd": null, "days_to_next_earnings": null, "earnings_confirmed": null, "news_sentiment_score": null, "news_headlines_last_3": [], "data_quality_note": "snapshot_ok_prices_technicals_only"}, {"symbol": "PAGE_CFD.UK", "name": "PAGEGROUP PLC", "sector": "", "last_price": 152.7, "change_1d_pct": -36.79635761589404, "distance_from_ma200_pct": -40.61156091058385, "distance_from_ma50_pct": -31.72721647345812, "volatility_20d_pct": 193.22753953431183, "market_cap_usd": null, "avg_daily_volume_usd": null, "days_to_next_earnings": null, "earnings_confirmed": null, "news_sentiment_score": null, "news_headlines_last_3": [], "data_quality_note": "snapshot_ok_prices_technicals_only"}, {"symbol": "FUTR_CFD.UK", "name": "FUTURE PLC", "sector": "", "last_price": 419.8, "change_1d_pct": -21.238273921200744, "distance_from_ma200_pct": -37.8057811437588, "distance_from_ma50_pct": -23.777028015845957, "volatility_20d_pct": 154.26286041137905, "market_cap_usd": null, "avg_daily_volume_usd": null, "days_to_next_earnings": null, "earnings_confirmed": null, "news_sentiment_score": null, "news_headlines_last_3": [], "data_quality_note": "snapshot_ok_prices_technicals_only"}, {"symbol": "ESNT_CFD.UK", "name": "ESSENTRA PLC", "sector": "", "last_price": 108.4, "change_1d_pct": 4.230769230769238, "distance_from_ma200_pct": 7.40452119530135, "distance_from_ma50_pct": 9.771484932749797, "volatility_20d_pct": 98.9832071461764, "market_cap_usd": null, "avg_daily_volume_usd": null, "days_to_next_earnings": null, "earnings_confirmed": null, "news_sentiment_score": null, "news_headlines_last_3": [], "data_quality_note": "snapshot_ok_prices_technicals_only"}, {"symbol": "ICG_CFD.UK", "name": "ICG Plc", "sector": "", "last_price": 1693.0, "change_1d_pct": -15.18545979199647, "distance_from_ma200_pct": -16.18296530905513, "distance_from_ma50_pct": -12.256151916578562, "volatility_20d_pct": 73.10253575454833, "market_cap_usd": null, "avg_daily_volume_usd": null, "days_to_next_earnings": null, "earnings_confirmed": null, "news_sentiment_score": null, "news_headlines_last_3": [], "data_quality_note": "snapshot_ok_prices_technicals_only"}, {"symbol": "JDW_CFD.UK", "name": "WETHERSPOON (J.D.) PLC", "sector": "", "last_price": 748.5, "change_1d_pct": 9.750733137829904, "distance_from_ma200_pct": 6.242631058659898, "distance_from_ma50_pct": 5.290077328071208, "volatility_20d_pct": 98.2373545531062, "market_cap_usd": null, "avg_daily_volume_usd": null, "days_to_next_earnings": null, "earnings_confirmed": null, "news_sentiment_score": null, "news_headlines_last_3": [], "data_quality_note": "snapshot_ok_prices_technicals_only"}, {"symbol": "MCG_CFD.UK", "name": "MOBICO GROUP PLC", "sector": "", "last_price": 19.51, "change_1d_pct": -21.646586345381515, "distance_from_ma200_pct": -29.294942649537013, "distance_from_ma50_pct": -17.188746837807088, "volatility_20d_pct": 260.52106739031456, "market_cap_usd": null, "avg_daily_volume_usd": null, "days_to_next_earnings": null, "earnings_confirmed": null, "news_sentiment_score": null, "news_headlines_last_3": [], "data_quality_note": "snapshot_ok_prices_technicals_only"}, {"symbol": "SHC_CFD.UK", "name": "SHAFTESBURY CAPITAL PLC", "sector": "", "last_price": 140.4, "change_1d_pct": -2.9045643153526868, "distance_from_ma200_pct": 0.26963533347688085, "distance_from_ma50_pct": -0.771073778544229, "volatility_20d_pct": 63.75522821252001, "market_cap_usd": null, "avg_daily_volume_usd": null, "days_to_next_earnings": null, "earnings_confirmed": null, "news_sentiment_score": null, "news_headlines_last_3": [], "data_quality_note": "snapshot_ok_prices_technicals_only"}, {"symbol": "PAG_CFD.UK", "name": "PARAGON BANKING GROUP PLC", "sector": "", "last_price": 852.5, "change_1d_pct": -3.399433427762044, "distance_from_ma200_pct": -1.3404962254783492, "distance_from_ma50_pct": 0.699141440891915, "volatility_20d_pct": 71.52779356208148, "market_cap_usd": null, "avg_daily_volume_usd": null, "days_to_next_earnings": null, "earnings_confirmed": null, "news_sentiment_score": null, "news_headlines_last_3": [], "data_quality_note": "snapshot_ok_prices_technicals_only"}, {"symbol": "INVP_CFD.UK", "name": "INVESTEC PLC", "sector": "", "last_price": 623.5, "change_1d_pct": 8.529155787641418, "distance_from_ma200_pct": 17.34715626999408, "distance_from_ma50_pct": 9.569618971869698, "volatility_20d_pct": 76.97154585310399, "market_cap_usd": null, "avg_daily_volume_usd": null, "days_to_next_earnings": null, "earnings_confirmed": null, "news_sentiment_score": null, "news_headlines_last_3": [], "data_quality_note": "snapshot_ok_prices_technicals_only"}, {"symbol": "SYNT_CFD.UK", "name": "SYNTHOMER PLC", "sector": "", "last_price": 47.4, "change_1d_pct": 157.60869565217394, "distance_from_ma200_pct": -34.944933081805374, "distance_from_ma50_pct": -0.08600192239590632, "volatility_20d_pct": 591.5494599797711, "market_cap_usd": null, "avg_daily_volume_usd": null, "days_to_next_earnings": null, "earnings_confirmed": null, "news_sentiment_score": null, "news_headlines_last_3": [], "data_quality_note": "snapshot_ok_prices_technicals_only"}, {"symbol": "LIO_CFD.UK", "name": "LIONTRUST ASSET MANAGEMENT", "sector": "", "last_price": 257.5, "change_1d_pct": 3.8306451612903247, "distance_from_ma200_pct": -20.8874735683513, "distance_from_ma50_pct": 0.10846703807232405, "volatility_20d_pct": 141.21527367452939, "market_cap_usd": null, "avg_daily_volume_usd": null, "days_to_next_earnings": null, "earnings_confirmed": null, "news_sentiment_score": null, "news_headlines_last_3": [], "data_quality_note": "snapshot_ok_prices_technicals_only"}, {"symbol": "RHIM_CFD.UK", "name": "RHI MAGNESITA NV", "sector": "", "last_price": 2550.0, "change_1d_pct": -6.764168190127973, "distance_from_ma200_pct": -2.35709026809392, "distance_from_ma50_pct": 0.9429816244979738, "volatility_20d_pct": 151.25590362229855, "market_cap_usd": null, "avg_daily_volume_usd": null, "days_to_next_earnings": null, "earnings_confirmed": null, "news_sentiment_score": null, "news_headlines_last_3": [], "data_quality_note": "snapshot_ok_prices_technicals_only"}, {"symbol": "UTG_CFD.UK", "name": "UNITE GROUP PLC/THE", "sector": "", "last_price": 505.0, "change_1d_pct": -8.265213442325159, "distance_from_ma200_pct": -32.12786599325862, "distance_from_ma50_pct": -13.548388422126267, "volatility_20d_pct": 98.87339279796446, "market_cap_usd": null, "avg_daily_volume_usd": null, "days_to_next_earnings": null, "earnings_confirmed": null, "news_sentiment_score": null, "news_headlines_last_3": [], "data_quality_note": "snapshot_ok_prices_technicals_only"}, {"symbol": "CBG_CFD.UK", "name": "CLOSE BROTHERS GROUP PLC", "sector": "", "last_price": 372.74, "change_1d_pct": -26.625984251968504, "distance_from_ma200_pct": -13.365429078084645, "distance_from_ma50_pct": -22.129222788055436, "volatility_20d_pct": 169.0552301316783, "market_cap_usd": null, "avg_daily_volume_usd": null, "days_to_next_earnings": null, "earnings_confirmed": null, "news_sentiment_score": null, "news_headlines_last_3": [], "data_quality_note": "snapshot_ok_prices_technicals_only"}, {"symbol": "TPK_CFD.UK", "name": "TRAVIS PERKINS PLC", "sector": "", "last_price": 562.96, "change_1d_pct": -6.418205695097834, "distance_from_ma200_pct": -5.9252503790203415, "distance_from_ma50_pct": -11.081458961572444, "volatility_20d_pct": 6395.392552138756, "market_cap_usd": null, "avg_daily_volume_usd": null, "days_to_next_earnings": null, "earnings_confirmed": null, "news_sentiment_score": null, "news_headlines_last_3": [], "data_quality_note": "snapshot_ok_prices_technicals_only"}, {"symbol": "EMG_CFD.UK", "name": "MAN GROUP PLC/JERSEY", "sector": "", "last_price": 269.6, "change_1d_pct": 2.353834472285521, "distance_from_ma200_pct": 41.85841362198575, "distance_from_ma50_pct": 15.090125472142745, "volatility_20d_pct": 86.92367167139048, "market_cap_usd": null, "avg_daily_volume_usd": null, "days_to_next_earnings": null, "earnings_confirmed": null, "news_sentiment_score": null, "news_headlines_last_3": [], "data_quality_note": "snapshot_ok_prices_technicals_only"}, {"symbol": "PZC_CFD.UK", "name": "PZ CUSSONS PLC", "sector": "", "last_price": 77.7, "change_1d_pct": -13.858093126385807, "distance_from_ma200_pct": 2.9808107121248817, "distance_from_ma50_pct": 2.5905093876257723, "volatility_20d_pct": 92.73478468401771, "market_cap_usd": null, "avg_daily_volume_usd": null, "days_to_next_earnings": null, "earnings_confirmed": null, "news_sentiment_score": null, "news_headlines_last_3": [], "data_quality_note": "snapshot_ok_prices_technicals_only"}, {"symbol": "DOM_CFD.UK", "name": "DOMINO'S PIZZA GROUP PLC", "sector": "", "last_price": 183.13, "change_1d_pct": -0.3102885138813294, "distance_from_ma200_pct": -15.070952368916624, "distance_from_ma50_pct": 1.0777282376278619, "volatility_20d_pct": 87.92203351330001, "market_cap_usd": null, "avg_daily_volume_usd": null, "days_to_next_earnings": null, "earnings_confirmed": null, "news_sentiment_score": null, "news_headlines_last_3": [], "data_quality_note": "snapshot_ok_prices_technicals_only"}, {"symbol": "OCDO_CFD.UK", "name": "OCADO GROUP PLC", "sector": "", "last_price": 217.0, "change_1d_pct": -21.148255813953487, "distance_from_ma200_pct": -15.81606625159202, "distance_from_ma50_pct": -5.48311196636071, "volatility_20d_pct": 241.3119670937803, "market_cap_usd": null, "avg_daily_volume_usd": null, "days_to_next_earnings": null, "earnings_confirmed": null, "news_sentiment_score": null, "news_headlines_last_3": [], "data_quality_note": "snapshot_ok_prices_technicals_only"}, {"symbol": "HWDN_CFD.UK", "name": "HOWDEN JOINERY GROUP PLC", "sector": "", "last_price": 843.0, "change_1d_pct": -2.686229466563539, "distance_from_ma200_pct": 2.9144756901175572, "distance_from_ma50_pct": 0.6796292983215046, "volatility_20d_pct": 44.16384759940265, "market_cap_usd": null, "avg_daily_volume_usd": null, "days_to_next_earnings": null, "earnings_confirmed": null, "news_sentiment_score": null, "news_headlines_last_3": [], "data_quality_note": "snapshot_ok_prices_technicals_only"}, {"symbol": "LRE_CFD.UK", "name": "LANCASHIRE HOLDINGS LTD", "sector": "", "last_price": 611.0, "change_1d_pct": -7.424242424242422, "distance_from_ma200_pct": 0.4068944205071867, "distance_from_ma50_pct": -6.396619125545266, "volatility_20d_pct": 86.32350801127552, "market_cap_usd": null, "avg_daily_volume_usd": null, "days_to_next_earnings": null, "earnings_confirmed": null, "news_sentiment_score": null, "news_headlines_last_3": [], "data_quality_note": "snapshot_ok_prices_technicals_only"}, {"symbol": "ABDN_CFD.UK", "name": "Aberdeen Group Plc", "sector": "", "last_price": 202.6, "change_1d_pct": -7.741347905282336, "distance_from_ma200_pct": 6.460345885775287, "distance_from_ma50_pct": -2.3285905331046353, "volatility_20d_pct": 82.55854119558269, "market_cap_usd": null, "avg_daily_volume_usd": null, "days_to_next_earnings": null, "earnings_confirmed": null, "news_sentiment_score": null, "news_headlines_last_3": [], "data_quality_note": "snapshot_ok_prices_technicals_only"}, {"symbol": "BBY_CFD.UK", "name": "BALFOUR BEATTY PLC", "sector": "", "last_price": 722.5, "change_1d_pct": -1.0951403148528382, "distance_from_ma200_pct": null, "distance_from_ma50_pct": -1.628407265201648, "volatility_20d_pct": 2239.4661443465884, "market_cap_usd": null, "avg_daily_volume_usd": null, "days_to_next_earnings": null, "earnings_confirmed": null, "news_sentiment_score": null, "news_headlines_last_3": [], "data_quality_note": "snapshot_ok_prices_technicals_only"}, {"symbol": "CMCX_CFD.UK", "name": "CMC MARKETS PLC", "sector": "", "last_price": 325.0, "change_1d_pct": 0.0, "distance_from_ma200_pct": null, "distance_from_ma50_pct": 2.8513560555713857, "volatility_20d_pct": 3004.223066122388, "market_cap_usd": null, "avg_daily_volume_usd": null, "days_to_next_earnings": null, "earnings_confirmed": null, "news_sentiment_score": null, "news_headlines_last_3": [], "data_quality_note": "snapshot_ok_prices_technicals_only"}, {"symbol": "BYIT_CFD.UK", "name": "BYTES TECHNOLOGY GROUP PLC", "sector": "", "last_price": 316.4, "change_1d_pct": 1.9329896907216426, "distance_from_ma200_pct": null, "distance_from_ma50_pct": -3.036395062333752, "volatility_20d_pct": 3610.9502328075146, "market_cap_usd": null, "avg_daily_volume_usd": null, "days_to_next_earnings": null, "earnings_confirmed": null, "news_sentiment_score": null, "news_headlines_last_3": [], "data_quality_note": "snapshot_ok_prices_technicals_only"}, {"symbol": "CMBT_CFD.BE", "name": "Euronav", "sector": "", "last_price": 12.04, "change_1d_pct": -3.2154340836012874, "distance_from_ma200_pct": null, "distance_from_ma50_pct": 17.20286979598327, "volatility_20d_pct": 3662.2062333013014, "market_cap_usd": null, "avg_daily_volume_usd": null, "days_to_next_earnings": null, "earnings_confirmed": null, "news_sentiment_score": null, "news_headlines_last_3": [], "data_quality_note": "snapshot_ok_prices_technicals_only"}, {"symbol": "ATG_CFD.UK", "name": "AUCTION TECHNOLOGY GROUP", "sector": "", "last_price": 313.0, "change_1d_pct": 0.3205128205128194, "distance_from_ma200_pct": null, "distance_from_ma50_pct": 0.8343803356850588, "volatility_20d_pct": 2871.9337920464413, "market_cap_usd": null, "avg_daily_volume_usd": null, "days_to_next_earnings": null, "earnings_confirmed": null, "news_sentiment_score": null, "news_headlines_last_3": [], "data_quality_note": "snapshot_ok_prices_technicals_only"}], "output_schema": {"selected_stocks": [{"symbol": "string", "mean_reversion_score": "integer 0-100", "selection_reason": "short, concrete, indicator-based"}], "rejected_common_reasons": ["string"]}}
Output JSON
{
  "selected_stocks": [
    {
      "symbol": "FUTR_CFD.UK",
      "selection_reason": "1D -21.2%; deeply below MA200 (-37.8%) and MA50 (-23.8%) -> strong oversold setup for 2-10d rebound (earnings/news unknown).",
      "mean_reversion_score": 88
    },
    {
      "symbol": "CBG_CFD.UK",
      "selection_reason": "1D -26.6%; below MA50 (-22.1%) and below MA200 (-13.4%) -> sharp selloff with room for snapback (earnings/news unknown).",
      "mean_reversion_score": 84
    },
    {
      "symbol": "UTG_CFD.UK",
      "selection_reason": "1D -8.3%; far below MA200 (-32.1%) and below MA50 (-13.5%) -> persistent downtrend + recent dip for mean-reversion bounce (earnings/news unknown).",
      "mean_reversion_score": 80
    },
    {
      "symbol": "ICG_CFD.UK",
      "selection_reason": "1D -15.2%; below MA200 (-16.2%) and below MA50 (-12.3%) -> oversold vs key MAs, moderate vol vs other extremes (earnings/news unknown).",
      "mean_reversion_score": 74
    },
    {
      "symbol": "OCDO_CFD.UK",
      "selection_reason": "1D -21.1%; below MA200 (-15.8%) and slightly below MA50 (-5.5%) -> large down day with potential short-term retracement (earnings/news unknown).",
      "mean_reversion_score": 72
    }
  ],
  "rejected_common_reasons": [
    "Not a mean-reversion dip: large positive 1D spikes and/or trading well above MA50/MA200 (more suited to fade/short, direction not specified here).",
    "Potentially binary/event-driven based on extreme 1D moves (earnings/news data unavailable to confirm).",
    "Volatility metrics appear as extreme outliers (possible data-quality/illiquidity issues), making signals unreliable for a 2-10 day mean-reversion setup.",
    "Insufficient MA data (e.g., MA200 missing), reducing confidence in oversold/overbought assessment.",
    "Sector diversification constraint cannot be validated because sector fields are missing; avoided adding multiple similar UK names when equally strong alternatives existed."
  ]
}
#1886openrouteropenai/gpt-5.2-pro2026-03-31T12:57:11.542066+00:00
System prompt
You are an Arena portfolio manager. You must follow the strategy rules strictly and output ONLY valid JSON. You are NOT allowed to invent prices/fundamentals/news/earnings. If a field is null/empty, treat it as unknown. Avoid overtrading: if changes are marginal, prefer HOLD. Do not churn.
User prompt
{"task": "stage2_portfolio_management", "region": "EU", "strategy": {"key": "meanrev-v1", "name": "Two-Stage LLM Mean-Reversion (Arena v1)", "rules": {"max_positions": 10, "max_buys_per_run": 2, "avoid_overtrading": true, "max_sells_per_run": 2, "max_gross_leverage": 3.0, "fixed_position_size": 3000.0, "universe_symbols_eu": [], "universe_symbols_us": []}}, "portfolio_constraints": {"initial_equity": 10000.0, "max_positions": 10, "fixed_position_size": 3000.0, "max_gross_leverage": 3.0, "overtrading_rules": ["Max 2 SELL actions per run unless risk event forces more", "Max 2 BUY actions per run", "If no clear improvement vs current holdings, output HOLD for everything"]}, "current_portfolio": [{"symbol": "ADBE_CFD.US", "qty": 12.025494047380446, "avg_price": 249.47, "last_price": 241.04, "unrealized_pnl": -101.37491481941724, "opened_at": "2026-03-14T18:06:47.909233+00:00"}, {"symbol": "AMH_CFD.US", "qty": 0.0, "avg_price": 29.674999999999997, "last_price": 28.435000000000002, "unrealized_pnl": 0.0, "opened_at": "2026-02-20T17:33:34.647633+00:00"}, {"symbol": "ARCAD_CFD.NL", "qty": 0.0, "avg_price": 28.6, "last_price": 30.0, "unrealized_pnl": 146.8531468531467, "opened_at": "2026-02-23T10:32:09.961595+00:00"}, {"symbol": "BYIT_CFD.UK", "qty": 0.0, "avg_price": 292.6, "last_price": 292.6, "unrealized_pnl": 0.0, "opened_at": "2026-02-16T09:30:55.514112+00:00"}, {"symbol": "CABO_CFD.US", "qty": 0.0, "avg_price": 94.325, "last_price": 108.6, "unrealized_pnl": 0.0, "opened_at": "2026-02-27T18:23:55.960577+00:00"}, {"symbol": "CBG_CFD.UK", "qty": 0.0, "avg_price": 342.92, "last_price": 342.92, "unrealized_pnl": 0.0, "opened_at": "2026-03-20T10:26:40.341409+00:00"}, {"symbol": "COTY_CFD.US", "qty": 1496.2593516209477, "avg_price": 2.005, "last_price": 2.0199999999999996, "unrealized_pnl": 22.443890274313738, "opened_at": "2026-03-29T18:14:52.152268+00:00"}, {"symbol": "CRWD_CFD.US", "qty": 0.0, "avg_price": 350.45000000000005, "last_price": 382.96500000000003, "unrealized_pnl": 0.0, "opened_at": "2026-02-23T18:14:12.978497+00:00"}, {"symbol": "CSGP_CFD.US", "qty": 0.0, "avg_price": 47.235, "last_price": 40.870000000000005, "unrealized_pnl": 0.0, "opened_at": "2026-03-03T18:03:34.247734+00:00"}, {"symbol": "DSY_CFD.FR", "qty": 0.0, "avg_price": 17.881, "last_price": 17.45, "unrealized_pnl": 0.0, "opened_at": "2026-02-16T09:30:55.514112+00:00"}, {"symbol": "ETSY_CFD.US", "qty": 0.0, "avg_price": 44.13, "last_price": 50.769999999999996, "unrealized_pnl": 0.0, "opened_at": "2026-02-19T00:47:27.070066+00:00"}, {"symbol": "EZJ_CFD.UK", "qty": 0.0, "avg_price": 437.5, "last_price": 348.5, "unrealized_pnl": 0.0, "opened_at": "2026-03-03T10:20:03.276878+00:00"}, {"symbol": "FBIN_CFD.US", "qty": 0.0, "avg_price": 50.974999999999994, "last_price": 54.185, "unrealized_pnl": 0.0, "opened_at": "2026-02-16T17:30:52.485845+00:00"}, {"symbol": "FICO_CFD.US", "qty": 2.6609662855571625, "avg_price": 1127.4099999999999, "last_price": 1050.725, "unrealized_pnl": -204.05619960795087, "opened_at": "2026-03-14T18:06:47.909233+00:00"}, {"symbol": "FLO_CFD.US", "qty": 0.0, "avg_price": 9.875, "last_price": 9.885000000000002, "unrealized_pnl": 0.0, "opened_at": "2026-02-19T00:47:27.070066+00:00"}, {"symbol": "FUTR_CFD.UK", "qty": 0.0, "avg_price": 414.2, "last_price": 414.2, "unrealized_pnl": 0.0, "opened_at": "2026-02-18T09:36:37.284518+00:00"}, {"symbol": "HIK_CFD.UK", "qty": 0.0, "avg_price": 1236.0, "last_price": 1236.0, "unrealized_pnl": 0.0, "opened_at": "2026-03-28T10:05:22.022266+00:00"}, {"symbol": "ITRK_CFD.UK", "qty": 0.0, "avg_price": 3620.0, "last_price": 3620.0, "unrealized_pnl": 0.0, "opened_at": "2026-03-28T10:05:22.022266+00:00"}, {"symbol": "IWG_CFD.UK", "qty": 16.216216216216218, "avg_price": 185.0, "last_price": 172.2, "unrealized_pnl": -207.56756756756778, "opened_at": "2026-03-17T10:04:29.123574+00:00"}, {"symbol": "MLCO_CFD.US", "qty": 0.0, "avg_price": 5.51, "last_price": 6.06, "unrealized_pnl": 0.0, "opened_at": "2026-02-16T17:30:52.485845+00:00"}, {"symbol": "OCDO_CFD.UK", "qty": 0.0, "avg_price": 204.3, "last_price": 204.3, "unrealized_pnl": 0.0, "opened_at": "2026-03-12T18:01:52.554929+00:00"}, {"symbol": "PAGE_CFD.UK", "qty": 0.0, "avg_price": 132.9, "last_price": 132.9, "unrealized_pnl": 0.0, "opened_at": "2026-03-05T10:27:11.178069+00:00"}, {"symbol": "PAYC_CFD.US", "qty": 0.0, "avg_price": 121.22, "last_price": 134.24, "unrealized_pnl": 322.2240554363969, "opened_at": "2026-02-19T17:33:27.020111+00:00"}, {"symbol": "PSN_CFD.UK", "qty": 2.4691358024691357, "avg_price": 1215.0, "last_price": 1079.0, "unrealized_pnl": -335.8024691358024, "opened_at": "2026-03-12T18:01:52.554929+00:00"}, {"symbol": "RMV_CFD.UK", "qty": 0.0, "avg_price": 424.3, "last_price": 424.3, "unrealized_pnl": 0.0, "opened_at": "2026-02-18T09:36:37.284518+00:00"}, {"symbol": "TMV_CFD.DE", "qty": 0.0, "avg_price": 4.781, "last_price": 4.467, "unrealized_pnl": 0.0, "opened_at": "2026-02-19T09:33:49.074031+00:00"}, {"symbol": "TRN_CFD.UK", "qty": 0.0, "avg_price": 184.5, "last_price": 204.2, "unrealized_pnl": 0.0, "opened_at": "2026-03-05T10:27:11.178069+00:00"}, {"symbol": "UKW_CFD.UK", "qty": 0.0, "avg_price": 92.35, "last_price": 92.35, "unrealized_pnl": 0.0, "opened_at": "2026-02-25T17:57:28.313088+00:00"}, {"symbol": "ULTA_CFD.US", "qty": 5.605381165919282, "avg_price": 535.2, "last_price": 509.88, "unrealized_pnl": -141.9282511210765, "opened_at": "2026-03-15T18:15:23.812047+00:00"}, {"symbol": "UTG_CFD.UK", "qty": 6.504770164787511, "avg_price": 461.2, "last_price": 461.2, "unrealized_pnl": 0.0, "opened_at": "2026-03-30T10:23:56.039732+00:00"}, {"symbol": "WPP_CFD.UK", "qty": 0.0, "avg_price": 232.09999999999997, "last_price": 232.0, "unrealized_pnl": 0.0, "opened_at": "2026-02-28T10:51:05.818250+00:00"}, {"symbol": "ZS_CFD.US", "qty": 18.778167250876315, "avg_price": 159.76, "last_price": 137.29, "unrealized_pnl": -421.9454181271908, "opened_at": "2026-02-21T17:32:49.140800+00:00"}], "candidates": [{"symbol": "FUTR_CFD.UK", "mean_reversion_score": 88, "selection_reason": "1D -21.2%; deeply below MA200 (-37.8%) and MA50 (-23.8%) -> strong oversold setup for 2-10d rebound (earnings/news unknown)."}, {"symbol": "CBG_CFD.UK", "mean_reversion_score": 84, "selection_reason": "1D -26.6%; below MA50 (-22.1%) and below MA200 (-13.4%) -> sharp selloff with room for snapback (earnings/news unknown)."}, {"symbol": "UTG_CFD.UK", "mean_reversion_score": 80, "selection_reason": "1D -8.3%; far below MA200 (-32.1%) and below MA50 (-13.5%) -> persistent downtrend + recent dip for mean-reversion bounce (earnings/news unknown)."}, {"symbol": "ICG_CFD.UK", "mean_reversion_score": 74, "selection_reason": "1D -15.2%; below MA200 (-16.2%) and below MA50 (-12.3%) -> oversold vs key MAs, moderate vol vs other extremes (earnings/news unknown)."}, {"symbol": "OCDO_CFD.UK", "mean_reversion_score": 72, "selection_reason": "1D -21.1%; below MA200 (-15.8%) and slightly below MA50 (-5.5%) -> large down day with potential short-term retracement (earnings/news unknown)."}], "output_schema": {"actions": {"sell": [{"symbol": "string", "reason": "string"}], "hold": [{"symbol": "string", "reason": "string"}], "buy": [{"symbol": "string", "position_size": "number (currency amount)", "reason": "string"}]}, "portfolio_rationale": "string"}}
Output JSON
{
  "actions": {
    "buy": [
      {
        "reason": "BUY: Top mean_reversion_score (88). Selection notes sharp 1D drop (-21.2%) and deep discounts vs MA200/MA50 (earnings/news unknown), fitting 2–10d rebound profile. Adds a new position without exceeding max_positions.",
        "symbol": "FUTR_CFD.UK",
        "position_size": 3000
      },
      {
        "reason": "BUY: High mean_reversion_score (84). Selection notes extreme 1D selloff (-26.6%) and below MA50/MA200 (earnings/news unknown), consistent with short-term mean-reversion. Uses remaining buy slot this run.",
        "symbol": "CBG_CFD.UK",
        "position_size": 3000
      }
    ],
    "hold": [
      {
        "reason": "HOLD: Existing position is moderately below avg_price (241.04 vs 249.47). No risk/news inputs provided and sell would be churn under the mean-reversion mandate.",
        "symbol": "ADBE_CFD.US"
      },
      {
        "reason": "HOLD: Small unrealized gain (~22) and position is near entry (2.02 vs 2.005). No strong reason to rotate given buy limits are better used for higher-scored oversold candidates.",
        "symbol": "COTY_CFD.US"
      },
      {
        "reason": "HOLD: Currently below avg_price (1050.725 vs 1127.41). No catalyst/risk data provided; maintain for potential mean-reversion rather than crystallizing losses.",
        "symbol": "FICO_CFD.US"
      },
      {
        "reason": "HOLD: Underwater (172.2 vs 185.0). No new information indicating thesis break; avoid overtrading.",
        "symbol": "IWG_CFD.UK"
      },
      {
        "reason": "HOLD: Underwater (1079.0 vs 1215.0). With no provided risk event, keep position to allow rebound/mean-reversion.",
        "symbol": "PSN_CFD.UK"
      },
      {
        "reason": "HOLD: Underwater (509.88 vs 535.2). No news/earnings info supplied; avoid unnecessary turnover.",
        "symbol": "ULTA_CFD.US"
      },
      {
        "reason": "HOLD: Already at ~fixed size (461.2 last_price; unrealized ~0). Candidate list flags oversold setup, but adding would be an incremental change; prefer HOLD to avoid overtrading.",
        "symbol": "UTG_CFD.UK"
      },
      {
        "reason": "HOLD: Largest unrealized loss in book (137.29 vs 159.76). No risk/catalyst inputs provided; retain for potential snapback rather than forced selling.",
        "symbol": "ZS_CFD.US"
      }
    ],
    "sell": []
  },
  "portfolio_rationale": "Maintain existing positions to avoid churn and allow mean-reversion to play out (no risk/news/earnings data provided to justify exits). Deploy the limited 2 buys into the highest-scored oversold candidates (FUTR, CBG) while staying within constraints: max_positions 10 (moving from 8 to 10) and gross leverage remains below 3.0 given fixed ~3,000 position sizing."
}
Selection logs
#924stage12026-03-31T12:57:11.539616+00:00
{
  "selected_stocks": [
    {
      "symbol": "FUTR_CFD.UK",
      "selection_reason": "1D -21.2%; deeply below MA200 (-37.8%) and MA50 (-23.8%) -> strong oversold setup for 2-10d rebound (earnings/news unknown).",
      "mean_reversion_score": 88
    },
    {
      "symbol": "CBG_CFD.UK",
      "selection_reason": "1D -26.6%; below MA50 (-22.1%) and below MA200 (-13.4%) -> sharp selloff with room for snapback (earnings/news unknown).",
      "mean_reversion_score": 84
    },
    {
      "symbol": "UTG_CFD.UK",
      "selection_reason": "1D -8.3%; far below MA200 (-32.1%) and below MA50 (-13.5%) -> persistent downtrend + recent dip for mean-reversion bounce (earnings/news unknown).",
      "mean_reversion_score": 80
    },
    {
      "symbol": "ICG_CFD.UK",
      "selection_reason": "1D -15.2%; below MA200 (-16.2%) and below MA50 (-12.3%) -> oversold vs key MAs, moderate vol vs other extremes (earnings/news unknown).",
      "mean_reversion_score": 74
    },
    {
      "symbol": "OCDO_CFD.UK",
      "selection_reason": "1D -21.1%; below MA200 (-15.8%) and slightly below MA50 (-5.5%) -> large down day with potential short-term retracement (earnings/news unknown).",
      "mean_reversion_score": 72
    }
  ],
  "rejected_common_reasons": [
    "Not a mean-reversion dip: large positive 1D spikes and/or trading well above MA50/MA200 (more suited to fade/short, direction not specified here).",
    "Potentially binary/event-driven based on extreme 1D moves (earnings/news data unavailable to confirm).",
    "Volatility metrics appear as extreme outliers (possible data-quality/illiquidity issues), making signals unreliable for a 2-10 day mean-reversion setup.",
    "Insufficient MA data (e.g., MA200 missing), reducing confidence in oversold/overbought assessment.",
    "Sector diversification constraint cannot be validated because sector fields are missing; avoided adding multiple similar UK names when equally strong alternatives existed."
  ]
}