Arena run #961

meanrev-v1amazonamazon/nova-premier-v1EUsuccess
Arena
Run status
as_of: 2026-03-31T10:31:52.715854+00:00
started_at: 2026-03-31T12:52:02.458216+00:00
finished_at: 2026-03-31T12:52:30.096991+00:00
duration_ms: 27637
Inputs
{
  "as_of": "2026-03-31T10:31:52.715854+00:00",
  "dry_run": false,
  "selected": [
    {
      "symbol": "PAGE_CFD.UK",
      "selection_reason": "Strong negative 1d change and large negative distance from MAs",
      "mean_reversion_score": 95
    },
    {
      "symbol": "FUTR_CFD.UK",
      "selection_reason": "Significant negative 1d change and substantial negative MA distance",
      "mean_reversion_score": 90
    },
    {
      "symbol": "CBG_CFD.UK",
      "selection_reason": "Extreme negative 1d move and large negative MA divergence",
      "mean_reversion_score": 85
    },
    {
      "symbol": "MCG_CFD.UK",
      "selection_reason": "Large negative 1d change and substantial negative MA gap",
      "mean_reversion_score": 82
    },
    {
      "symbol": "SHC_CFD.UK",
      "selection_reason": "Near-neutral MA positioning with moderate volatility",
      "mean_reversion_score": 78
    }
  ],
  "simulate_only": false,
  "strict_replay": false,
  "universe_symbols": [
    "CRST_CFD.UK",
    "MSLH_CFD.UK",
    "BOY_CFD.UK",
    "LMP_CFD.UK",
    "PHP_CFD.UK",
    "PAGE_CFD.UK",
    "FUTR_CFD.UK",
    "ESNT_CFD.UK",
    "ICG_CFD.UK",
    "JDW_CFD.UK",
    "MCG_CFD.UK",
    "SHC_CFD.UK",
    "PAG_CFD.UK",
    "INVP_CFD.UK",
    "SYNT_CFD.UK",
    "LIO_CFD.UK",
    "RHIM_CFD.UK",
    "UTG_CFD.UK",
    "CBG_CFD.UK",
    "TPK_CFD.UK",
    "EMG_CFD.UK",
    "PZC_CFD.UK",
    "DOM_CFD.UK",
    "OCDO_CFD.UK",
    "HWDN_CFD.UK",
    "LRE_CFD.UK",
    "ABDN_CFD.UK",
    "BBY_CFD.UK",
    "CMCX_CFD.UK",
    "BYIT_CFD.UK",
    "CMBT_CFD.BE",
    "ATG_CFD.UK"
  ]
}
Outputs
{
  "actions": {
    "buy": [
      {
        "reason": "High mean reversion score and oversold conditions",
        "symbol": "PAGE_CFD.UK",
        "position_size": 3000
      },
      {
        "reason": "Strong mean reversion indicators and negative MA divergence",
        "symbol": "FUTR_CFD.UK",
        "position_size": 3000
      }
    ],
    "hold": [
      {
        "reason": "Current price matches entry with no clear trend reversal",
        "symbol": "ABDN_CFD.UK"
      },
      {
        "reason": "No significant price movement detected",
        "symbol": "BBY_CFD.UK"
      },
      {
        "reason": "Price remains unchanged from entry",
        "symbol": "BYIT_CFD.UK"
      }
    ],
    "sell": [
      {
        "reason": "Clear negative divergence from moving averages and poor performance",
        "symbol": "MCG_CFD.UK"
      },
      {
        "reason": "Significant unrealized loss and negative trend indication",
        "symbol": "LIO_CFD.UK"
      }
    ]
  },
  "portfolio_rationale": "Reduced exposure to poorly performing assets (MCG/LIO) while adding high-conviction mean reversion candidates (PAGE/FUTR) based on technical indicators. Maintained stable positions showing no clear trend changes. Portfolio adjustments stay within 2 buy/sell limits and leverage constraints."
}
Prompts & responses
#1876openrouteramazon/nova-premier-v12026-03-31T12:52:02.500741+00:00
System prompt
You are an Arena strategy executor. You must follow the strategy rules strictly and output ONLY valid JSON. You are NOT allowed to invent prices, fundamentals, earnings dates, or sentiment. If a field is null/empty, treat it as unknown. You are a constrained selector (no narrative).
User prompt
{"task": "stage1_universe_scan", "region": "EU", "strategy": {"key": "meanrev-v1", "name": "Two-Stage LLM Mean-Reversion (Arena v1)", "rules": {"max_positions": 10, "max_buys_per_run": 2, "avoid_overtrading": true, "max_sells_per_run": 2, "max_gross_leverage": 3.0, "fixed_position_size": 3000.0, "universe_symbols_eu": [], "universe_symbols_us": []}}, "selection_rules": {"horizon": "2-10 trading days", "target": "short-term mean reversion in liquid equities", "constraints": ["Select exactly 5 candidates", "Avoid earnings within 5 trading days (if known)", "Avoid highly binary/event-driven moves (if known)", "Avoid sector concentration: max 1 per sector unless clearly justified (sector may be unknown)"]}, "universe": [{"symbol": "CRST_CFD.UK", "name": "CREST NICHOLSON HOLDINGS", "sector": "", "last_price": 167.8, "change_1d_pct": 24.85119047619049, "distance_from_ma200_pct": 1.2720261375977815, "distance_from_ma50_pct": 17.82963155418549, "volatility_20d_pct": 158.46878099582966, "market_cap_usd": null, "avg_daily_volume_usd": null, "days_to_next_earnings": null, "earnings_confirmed": null, "news_sentiment_score": null, "news_headlines_last_3": [], "data_quality_note": "snapshot_ok_prices_technicals_only"}, {"symbol": "MSLH_CFD.UK", "name": "MARSHALLS PLC", "sector": "", "last_price": 179.0, "change_1d_pct": 2.052451539338662, "distance_from_ma200_pct": -18.41965657865713, "distance_from_ma50_pct": 4.539832012082234, "volatility_20d_pct": 102.90810964969117, "market_cap_usd": null, "avg_daily_volume_usd": null, "days_to_next_earnings": null, "earnings_confirmed": null, "news_sentiment_score": null, "news_headlines_last_3": [], "data_quality_note": "snapshot_ok_prices_technicals_only"}, {"symbol": "BOY_CFD.UK", "name": "BODYCOTE PLC", "sector": "", "last_price": 775.4, "change_1d_pct": 24.163330664531625, "distance_from_ma200_pct": 28.652243313347768, "distance_from_ma50_pct": 18.63612217470385, "volatility_20d_pct": 103.46484337510964, "market_cap_usd": null, "avg_daily_volume_usd": null, "days_to_next_earnings": null, "earnings_confirmed": null, "news_sentiment_score": null, "news_headlines_last_3": [], "data_quality_note": "snapshot_ok_prices_technicals_only"}, {"symbol": "LMP_CFD.UK", "name": "LONDONMETRIC PROPERTY PLC", "sector": "", "last_price": 214.0, "change_1d_pct": 11.57455683003128, "distance_from_ma200_pct": 12.507879494597773, "distance_from_ma50_pct": 10.77384329331672, "volatility_20d_pct": 54.89150861607771, "market_cap_usd": null, "avg_daily_volume_usd": null, "days_to_next_earnings": null, "earnings_confirmed": null, "news_sentiment_score": null, "news_headlines_last_3": [], "data_quality_note": "snapshot_ok_prices_technicals_only"}, {"symbol": "PHP_CFD.UK", "name": "PRIMARY HEALTH PROPERTIES", "sector": "", "last_price": 107.7, "change_1d_pct": 10.518214468958442, "distance_from_ma200_pct": 11.915056783642308, "distance_from_ma50_pct": 10.278080977082226, "volatility_20d_pct": 53.84238650296991, "market_cap_usd": null, "avg_daily_volume_usd": null, "days_to_next_earnings": null, "earnings_confirmed": null, "news_sentiment_score": null, "news_headlines_last_3": [], "data_quality_note": "snapshot_ok_prices_technicals_only"}, {"symbol": "PAGE_CFD.UK", "name": "PAGEGROUP PLC", "sector": "", "last_price": 152.7, "change_1d_pct": -36.79635761589404, "distance_from_ma200_pct": -40.61156091058385, "distance_from_ma50_pct": -31.72721647345812, "volatility_20d_pct": 193.22753953431183, "market_cap_usd": null, "avg_daily_volume_usd": null, "days_to_next_earnings": null, "earnings_confirmed": null, "news_sentiment_score": null, "news_headlines_last_3": [], "data_quality_note": "snapshot_ok_prices_technicals_only"}, {"symbol": "FUTR_CFD.UK", "name": "FUTURE PLC", "sector": "", "last_price": 419.8, "change_1d_pct": -21.238273921200744, "distance_from_ma200_pct": -37.8057811437588, "distance_from_ma50_pct": -23.777028015845957, "volatility_20d_pct": 154.26286041137905, "market_cap_usd": null, "avg_daily_volume_usd": null, "days_to_next_earnings": null, "earnings_confirmed": null, "news_sentiment_score": null, "news_headlines_last_3": [], "data_quality_note": "snapshot_ok_prices_technicals_only"}, {"symbol": "ESNT_CFD.UK", "name": "ESSENTRA PLC", "sector": "", "last_price": 108.4, "change_1d_pct": 4.230769230769238, "distance_from_ma200_pct": 7.40452119530135, "distance_from_ma50_pct": 9.771484932749797, "volatility_20d_pct": 98.9832071461764, "market_cap_usd": null, "avg_daily_volume_usd": null, "days_to_next_earnings": null, "earnings_confirmed": null, "news_sentiment_score": null, "news_headlines_last_3": [], "data_quality_note": "snapshot_ok_prices_technicals_only"}, {"symbol": "ICG_CFD.UK", "name": "ICG Plc", "sector": "", "last_price": 1693.0, "change_1d_pct": -15.18545979199647, "distance_from_ma200_pct": -16.18296530905513, "distance_from_ma50_pct": -12.256151916578562, "volatility_20d_pct": 73.10253575454833, "market_cap_usd": null, "avg_daily_volume_usd": null, "days_to_next_earnings": null, "earnings_confirmed": null, "news_sentiment_score": null, "news_headlines_last_3": [], "data_quality_note": "snapshot_ok_prices_technicals_only"}, {"symbol": "JDW_CFD.UK", "name": "WETHERSPOON (J.D.) PLC", "sector": "", "last_price": 748.5, "change_1d_pct": 9.750733137829904, "distance_from_ma200_pct": 6.242631058659898, "distance_from_ma50_pct": 5.290077328071208, "volatility_20d_pct": 98.2373545531062, "market_cap_usd": null, "avg_daily_volume_usd": null, "days_to_next_earnings": null, "earnings_confirmed": null, "news_sentiment_score": null, "news_headlines_last_3": [], "data_quality_note": "snapshot_ok_prices_technicals_only"}, {"symbol": "MCG_CFD.UK", "name": "MOBICO GROUP PLC", "sector": "", "last_price": 19.51, "change_1d_pct": -21.646586345381515, "distance_from_ma200_pct": -29.294942649537013, "distance_from_ma50_pct": -17.188746837807088, "volatility_20d_pct": 260.52106739031456, "market_cap_usd": null, "avg_daily_volume_usd": null, "days_to_next_earnings": null, "earnings_confirmed": null, "news_sentiment_score": null, "news_headlines_last_3": [], "data_quality_note": "snapshot_ok_prices_technicals_only"}, {"symbol": "SHC_CFD.UK", "name": "SHAFTESBURY CAPITAL PLC", "sector": "", "last_price": 140.4, "change_1d_pct": -2.9045643153526868, "distance_from_ma200_pct": 0.26963533347688085, "distance_from_ma50_pct": -0.771073778544229, "volatility_20d_pct": 63.75522821252001, "market_cap_usd": null, "avg_daily_volume_usd": null, "days_to_next_earnings": null, "earnings_confirmed": null, "news_sentiment_score": null, "news_headlines_last_3": [], "data_quality_note": "snapshot_ok_prices_technicals_only"}, {"symbol": "PAG_CFD.UK", "name": "PARAGON BANKING GROUP PLC", "sector": "", "last_price": 852.5, "change_1d_pct": -3.399433427762044, "distance_from_ma200_pct": -1.3404962254783492, "distance_from_ma50_pct": 0.699141440891915, "volatility_20d_pct": 71.52779356208148, "market_cap_usd": null, "avg_daily_volume_usd": null, "days_to_next_earnings": null, "earnings_confirmed": null, "news_sentiment_score": null, "news_headlines_last_3": [], "data_quality_note": "snapshot_ok_prices_technicals_only"}, {"symbol": "INVP_CFD.UK", "name": "INVESTEC PLC", "sector": "", "last_price": 623.5, "change_1d_pct": 8.529155787641418, "distance_from_ma200_pct": 17.34715626999408, "distance_from_ma50_pct": 9.569618971869698, "volatility_20d_pct": 76.97154585310399, "market_cap_usd": null, "avg_daily_volume_usd": null, "days_to_next_earnings": null, "earnings_confirmed": null, "news_sentiment_score": null, "news_headlines_last_3": [], "data_quality_note": "snapshot_ok_prices_technicals_only"}, {"symbol": "SYNT_CFD.UK", "name": "SYNTHOMER PLC", "sector": "", "last_price": 47.4, "change_1d_pct": 157.60869565217394, "distance_from_ma200_pct": -34.944933081805374, "distance_from_ma50_pct": -0.08600192239590632, "volatility_20d_pct": 591.5494599797711, "market_cap_usd": null, "avg_daily_volume_usd": null, "days_to_next_earnings": null, "earnings_confirmed": null, "news_sentiment_score": null, "news_headlines_last_3": [], "data_quality_note": "snapshot_ok_prices_technicals_only"}, {"symbol": "LIO_CFD.UK", "name": "LIONTRUST ASSET MANAGEMENT", "sector": "", "last_price": 257.5, "change_1d_pct": 3.8306451612903247, "distance_from_ma200_pct": -20.8874735683513, "distance_from_ma50_pct": 0.10846703807232405, "volatility_20d_pct": 141.21527367452939, "market_cap_usd": null, "avg_daily_volume_usd": null, "days_to_next_earnings": null, "earnings_confirmed": null, "news_sentiment_score": null, "news_headlines_last_3": [], "data_quality_note": "snapshot_ok_prices_technicals_only"}, {"symbol": "RHIM_CFD.UK", "name": "RHI MAGNESITA NV", "sector": "", "last_price": 2550.0, "change_1d_pct": -6.764168190127973, "distance_from_ma200_pct": -2.35709026809392, "distance_from_ma50_pct": 0.9429816244979738, "volatility_20d_pct": 151.25590362229855, "market_cap_usd": null, "avg_daily_volume_usd": null, "days_to_next_earnings": null, "earnings_confirmed": null, "news_sentiment_score": null, "news_headlines_last_3": [], "data_quality_note": "snapshot_ok_prices_technicals_only"}, {"symbol": "UTG_CFD.UK", "name": "UNITE GROUP PLC/THE", "sector": "", "last_price": 505.0, "change_1d_pct": -8.265213442325159, "distance_from_ma200_pct": -32.12786599325862, "distance_from_ma50_pct": -13.548388422126267, "volatility_20d_pct": 98.87339279796446, "market_cap_usd": null, "avg_daily_volume_usd": null, "days_to_next_earnings": null, "earnings_confirmed": null, "news_sentiment_score": null, "news_headlines_last_3": [], "data_quality_note": "snapshot_ok_prices_technicals_only"}, {"symbol": "CBG_CFD.UK", "name": "CLOSE BROTHERS GROUP PLC", "sector": "", "last_price": 372.74, "change_1d_pct": -26.625984251968504, "distance_from_ma200_pct": -13.365429078084645, "distance_from_ma50_pct": -22.129222788055436, "volatility_20d_pct": 169.0552301316783, "market_cap_usd": null, "avg_daily_volume_usd": null, "days_to_next_earnings": null, "earnings_confirmed": null, "news_sentiment_score": null, "news_headlines_last_3": [], "data_quality_note": "snapshot_ok_prices_technicals_only"}, {"symbol": "TPK_CFD.UK", "name": "TRAVIS PERKINS PLC", "sector": "", "last_price": 562.96, "change_1d_pct": -6.418205695097834, "distance_from_ma200_pct": -5.9252503790203415, "distance_from_ma50_pct": -11.081458961572444, "volatility_20d_pct": 6395.392552138756, "market_cap_usd": null, "avg_daily_volume_usd": null, "days_to_next_earnings": null, "earnings_confirmed": null, "news_sentiment_score": null, "news_headlines_last_3": [], "data_quality_note": "snapshot_ok_prices_technicals_only"}, {"symbol": "EMG_CFD.UK", "name": "MAN GROUP PLC/JERSEY", "sector": "", "last_price": 269.6, "change_1d_pct": 2.353834472285521, "distance_from_ma200_pct": 41.85841362198575, "distance_from_ma50_pct": 15.090125472142745, "volatility_20d_pct": 86.92367167139048, "market_cap_usd": null, "avg_daily_volume_usd": null, "days_to_next_earnings": null, "earnings_confirmed": null, "news_sentiment_score": null, "news_headlines_last_3": [], "data_quality_note": "snapshot_ok_prices_technicals_only"}, {"symbol": "PZC_CFD.UK", "name": "PZ CUSSONS PLC", "sector": "", "last_price": 77.7, "change_1d_pct": -13.858093126385807, "distance_from_ma200_pct": 2.9808107121248817, "distance_from_ma50_pct": 2.5905093876257723, "volatility_20d_pct": 92.73478468401771, "market_cap_usd": null, "avg_daily_volume_usd": null, "days_to_next_earnings": null, "earnings_confirmed": null, "news_sentiment_score": null, "news_headlines_last_3": [], "data_quality_note": "snapshot_ok_prices_technicals_only"}, {"symbol": "DOM_CFD.UK", "name": "DOMINO'S PIZZA GROUP PLC", "sector": "", "last_price": 183.13, "change_1d_pct": -0.3102885138813294, "distance_from_ma200_pct": -15.070952368916624, "distance_from_ma50_pct": 1.0777282376278619, "volatility_20d_pct": 87.92203351330001, "market_cap_usd": null, "avg_daily_volume_usd": null, "days_to_next_earnings": null, "earnings_confirmed": null, "news_sentiment_score": null, "news_headlines_last_3": [], "data_quality_note": "snapshot_ok_prices_technicals_only"}, {"symbol": "OCDO_CFD.UK", "name": "OCADO GROUP PLC", "sector": "", "last_price": 217.0, "change_1d_pct": -21.148255813953487, "distance_from_ma200_pct": -15.81606625159202, "distance_from_ma50_pct": -5.48311196636071, "volatility_20d_pct": 241.3119670937803, "market_cap_usd": null, "avg_daily_volume_usd": null, "days_to_next_earnings": null, "earnings_confirmed": null, "news_sentiment_score": null, "news_headlines_last_3": [], "data_quality_note": "snapshot_ok_prices_technicals_only"}, {"symbol": "HWDN_CFD.UK", "name": "HOWDEN JOINERY GROUP PLC", "sector": "", "last_price": 843.0, "change_1d_pct": -2.686229466563539, "distance_from_ma200_pct": 2.9144756901175572, "distance_from_ma50_pct": 0.6796292983215046, "volatility_20d_pct": 44.16384759940265, "market_cap_usd": null, "avg_daily_volume_usd": null, "days_to_next_earnings": null, "earnings_confirmed": null, "news_sentiment_score": null, "news_headlines_last_3": [], "data_quality_note": "snapshot_ok_prices_technicals_only"}, {"symbol": "LRE_CFD.UK", "name": "LANCASHIRE HOLDINGS LTD", "sector": "", "last_price": 611.0, "change_1d_pct": -7.424242424242422, "distance_from_ma200_pct": 0.4068944205071867, "distance_from_ma50_pct": -6.396619125545266, "volatility_20d_pct": 86.32350801127552, "market_cap_usd": null, "avg_daily_volume_usd": null, "days_to_next_earnings": null, "earnings_confirmed": null, "news_sentiment_score": null, "news_headlines_last_3": [], "data_quality_note": "snapshot_ok_prices_technicals_only"}, {"symbol": "ABDN_CFD.UK", "name": "Aberdeen Group Plc", "sector": "", "last_price": 202.6, "change_1d_pct": -7.741347905282336, "distance_from_ma200_pct": 6.460345885775287, "distance_from_ma50_pct": -2.3285905331046353, "volatility_20d_pct": 82.55854119558269, "market_cap_usd": null, "avg_daily_volume_usd": null, "days_to_next_earnings": null, "earnings_confirmed": null, "news_sentiment_score": null, "news_headlines_last_3": [], "data_quality_note": "snapshot_ok_prices_technicals_only"}, {"symbol": "BBY_CFD.UK", "name": "BALFOUR BEATTY PLC", "sector": "", "last_price": 722.5, "change_1d_pct": -1.0951403148528382, "distance_from_ma200_pct": null, "distance_from_ma50_pct": -1.628407265201648, "volatility_20d_pct": 2239.4661443465884, "market_cap_usd": null, "avg_daily_volume_usd": null, "days_to_next_earnings": null, "earnings_confirmed": null, "news_sentiment_score": null, "news_headlines_last_3": [], "data_quality_note": "snapshot_ok_prices_technicals_only"}, {"symbol": "CMCX_CFD.UK", "name": "CMC MARKETS PLC", "sector": "", "last_price": 325.0, "change_1d_pct": 0.0, "distance_from_ma200_pct": null, "distance_from_ma50_pct": 2.8513560555713857, "volatility_20d_pct": 3004.223066122388, "market_cap_usd": null, "avg_daily_volume_usd": null, "days_to_next_earnings": null, "earnings_confirmed": null, "news_sentiment_score": null, "news_headlines_last_3": [], "data_quality_note": "snapshot_ok_prices_technicals_only"}, {"symbol": "BYIT_CFD.UK", "name": "BYTES TECHNOLOGY GROUP PLC", "sector": "", "last_price": 316.4, "change_1d_pct": 1.9329896907216426, "distance_from_ma200_pct": null, "distance_from_ma50_pct": -3.036395062333752, "volatility_20d_pct": 3610.9502328075146, "market_cap_usd": null, "avg_daily_volume_usd": null, "days_to_next_earnings": null, "earnings_confirmed": null, "news_sentiment_score": null, "news_headlines_last_3": [], "data_quality_note": "snapshot_ok_prices_technicals_only"}, {"symbol": "CMBT_CFD.BE", "name": "Euronav", "sector": "", "last_price": 12.04, "change_1d_pct": -3.2154340836012874, "distance_from_ma200_pct": null, "distance_from_ma50_pct": 17.20286979598327, "volatility_20d_pct": 3662.2062333013014, "market_cap_usd": null, "avg_daily_volume_usd": null, "days_to_next_earnings": null, "earnings_confirmed": null, "news_sentiment_score": null, "news_headlines_last_3": [], "data_quality_note": "snapshot_ok_prices_technicals_only"}, {"symbol": "ATG_CFD.UK", "name": "AUCTION TECHNOLOGY GROUP", "sector": "", "last_price": 313.0, "change_1d_pct": 0.3205128205128194, "distance_from_ma200_pct": null, "distance_from_ma50_pct": 0.8343803356850588, "volatility_20d_pct": 2871.9337920464413, "market_cap_usd": null, "avg_daily_volume_usd": null, "days_to_next_earnings": null, "earnings_confirmed": null, "news_sentiment_score": null, "news_headlines_last_3": [], "data_quality_note": "snapshot_ok_prices_technicals_only"}], "output_schema": {"selected_stocks": [{"symbol": "string", "mean_reversion_score": "integer 0-100", "selection_reason": "short, concrete, indicator-based"}], "rejected_common_reasons": ["string"]}}
Output JSON
{
  "selected_stocks": [
    {
      "symbol": "PAGE_CFD.UK",
      "selection_reason": "Strong negative 1d change and large negative distance from MAs",
      "mean_reversion_score": 95
    },
    {
      "symbol": "FUTR_CFD.UK",
      "selection_reason": "Significant negative 1d change and substantial negative MA distance",
      "mean_reversion_score": 90
    },
    {
      "symbol": "CBG_CFD.UK",
      "selection_reason": "Extreme negative 1d move and large negative MA divergence",
      "mean_reversion_score": 85
    },
    {
      "symbol": "MCG_CFD.UK",
      "selection_reason": "Large negative 1d change and substantial negative MA gap",
      "mean_reversion_score": 82
    },
    {
      "symbol": "SHC_CFD.UK",
      "selection_reason": "Near-neutral MA positioning with moderate volatility",
      "mean_reversion_score": 78
    }
  ],
  "rejected_common_reasons": [
    "Extreme 1-day outliers (>+100% or <-50%)",
    "Missing technical indicators",
    "Insufficient mean-reversion potential"
  ]
}
#1877openrouteramazon/nova-premier-v12026-03-31T12:52:20.126079+00:00
System prompt
You are an Arena portfolio manager. You must follow the strategy rules strictly and output ONLY valid JSON. You are NOT allowed to invent prices/fundamentals/news/earnings. If a field is null/empty, treat it as unknown. Avoid overtrading: if changes are marginal, prefer HOLD. Do not churn.
User prompt
{"task": "stage2_portfolio_management", "region": "EU", "strategy": {"key": "meanrev-v1", "name": "Two-Stage LLM Mean-Reversion (Arena v1)", "rules": {"max_positions": 10, "max_buys_per_run": 2, "avoid_overtrading": true, "max_sells_per_run": 2, "max_gross_leverage": 3.0, "fixed_position_size": 3000.0, "universe_symbols_eu": [], "universe_symbols_us": []}}, "portfolio_constraints": {"initial_equity": 10000.0, "max_positions": 10, "fixed_position_size": 3000.0, "max_gross_leverage": 3.0, "overtrading_rules": ["Max 2 SELL actions per run unless risk event forces more", "Max 2 BUY actions per run", "If no clear improvement vs current holdings, output HOLD for everything"]}, "current_portfolio": [{"symbol": "ABDN_CFD.UK", "qty": 15.527950310559007, "avg_price": 193.2, "last_price": 193.2, "unrealized_pnl": 0.0, "opened_at": "2026-03-19T10:09:24.325041+00:00"}, {"symbol": "ADBE_CFD.US", "qty": 0.0, "avg_price": 249.47, "last_price": 248.05, "unrealized_pnl": 0.0, "opened_at": "2026-03-14T18:06:47.909233+00:00"}, {"symbol": "ADP_CFD.FR", "qty": 0.0, "avg_price": 117.5, "last_price": 115.1, "unrealized_pnl": -61.276595744680996, "opened_at": "2026-02-25T10:57:06.928276+00:00"}, {"symbol": "AKAM_CFD.US", "qty": 0.0, "avg_price": 97.455, "last_price": 107.67, "unrealized_pnl": 0.0, "opened_at": "2026-02-23T18:14:12.978497+00:00"}, {"symbol": "BBY_CFD.UK", "qty": 4.129387474191328, "avg_price": 726.5, "last_price": 726.5, "unrealized_pnl": 0.0, "opened_at": "2026-03-20T18:25:08.105367+00:00"}, {"symbol": "BIG_CFD.FR", "qty": 0.0, "avg_price": 0.453, "last_price": 0.296, "unrealized_pnl": 0.0, "opened_at": "2026-02-21T17:32:49.140800+00:00"}, {"symbol": "BRBY_CFD.UK", "qty": 0.0, "avg_price": 1119.08, "last_price": 1067.5, "unrealized_pnl": 0.0, "opened_at": "2026-03-02T10:31:26.559356+00:00"}, {"symbol": "BRNL_CFD.NL", "qty": 0.0, "avg_price": 7.05, "last_price": 6.68, "unrealized_pnl": 0.0, "opened_at": "2026-02-23T10:32:09.961595+00:00"}, {"symbol": "BTRW_CFD.UK", "qty": 0.0, "avg_price": 257.9, "last_price": 250.8, "unrealized_pnl": -82.59015122140326, "opened_at": "2026-03-02T18:21:09.503139+00:00"}, {"symbol": "BT_CFD.UK", "qty": 0.0, "avg_price": 202.8, "last_price": 203.6, "unrealized_pnl": 0.0, "opened_at": "2026-03-03T10:20:03.276878+00:00"}, {"symbol": "BYIT_CFD.UK", "qty": 20.505809979494188, "avg_price": 292.6, "last_price": 292.6, "unrealized_pnl": 0.0, "opened_at": "2026-02-16T09:30:55.514112+00:00"}, {"symbol": "CABO_CFD.US", "qty": 0.0, "avg_price": 94.6, "last_price": 111.495, "unrealized_pnl": 535.7822410147995, "opened_at": "2026-02-27T18:23:55.960577+00:00"}, {"symbol": "CBG_CFD.UK", "qty": 8.748396127376648, "avg_price": 342.92, "last_price": 342.92, "unrealized_pnl": 0.0, "opened_at": "2026-03-04T10:26:53.527562+00:00"}, {"symbol": "CCL_CFD.UK", "qty": 0.0, "avg_price": 1945.9999999999998, "last_price": 1842.0, "unrealized_pnl": 0.0, "opened_at": "2026-03-06T18:02:13.212382+00:00"}, {"symbol": "CO_CFD.FR", "qty": 0.0, "avg_price": 0.171, "last_price": 0.165, "unrealized_pnl": 0.0, "opened_at": "2026-03-06T10:33:43.857578+00:00"}, {"symbol": "CRST_CFD.UK", "qty": 25.246149962130776, "avg_price": 118.83, "last_price": 118.83, "unrealized_pnl": 0.0, "opened_at": "2026-03-19T10:09:24.325041+00:00"}, {"symbol": "DCC_CFD.UK", "qty": 0.6651884700665188, "avg_price": 4510.0, "last_price": 4638.0, "unrealized_pnl": 85.14412416851441, "opened_at": "2026-03-23T10:03:51.599067+00:00"}, {"symbol": "DLN_CFD.UK", "qty": 4.966887417218543, "avg_price": 1812.0, "last_price": 1812.0, "unrealized_pnl": 0.0, "opened_at": "2026-03-12T18:01:52.554929+00:00"}, {"symbol": "DSY_CFD.FR", "qty": 0.0, "avg_price": 17.881, "last_price": 16.752, "unrealized_pnl": 0.0, "opened_at": "2026-02-16T09:30:55.514112+00:00"}, {"symbol": "EMG_CFD.UK", "qty": 11.857707509881424, "avg_price": 252.99999999999997, "last_price": 253.0, "unrealized_pnl": 3.370163173565693e-13, "opened_at": "2026-03-24T18:12:08.252730+00:00"}, {"symbol": "ERA_CFD.FR", "qty": 0.0, "avg_price": 47.4, "last_price": 46.329, "unrealized_pnl": 0.0, "opened_at": "2026-02-19T17:33:27.020111+00:00"}, {"symbol": "ESNT_CFD.UK", "qty": 31.413612565445025, "avg_price": 95.5, "last_price": 95.5, "unrealized_pnl": 0.0, "opened_at": "2026-03-20T10:26:40.341409+00:00"}, {"symbol": "ESTC_CFD.US", "qty": 0.0, "avg_price": 58.085, "last_price": 55.355000000000004, "unrealized_pnl": 0.0, "opened_at": "2026-02-20T17:33:34.647633+00:00"}, {"symbol": "EVD_CFD.DE", "qty": 0.0, "avg_price": 54.1, "last_price": 49.68, "unrealized_pnl": 0.0, "opened_at": "2026-03-27T09:59:46.331143+00:00"}, {"symbol": "EXE_CFD.FR", "qty": 0.0, "avg_price": 37.303, "last_price": 35.843, "unrealized_pnl": 0.0, "opened_at": "2026-02-24T18:14:37.115518+00:00"}, {"symbol": "EZJ_CFD.UK", "qty": 0.0, "avg_price": 405.2, "last_price": 394.1, "unrealized_pnl": 0.0, "opened_at": "2026-02-21T09:33:26.900894+00:00"}, {"symbol": "FBIN_CFD.US", "qty": 0.0, "avg_price": 42.790000000000006, "last_price": 41.445, "unrealized_pnl": 0.0, "opened_at": "2026-03-05T18:20:59.102726+00:00"}, {"symbol": "FICO_CFD.US", "qty": 0.0, "avg_price": 1127.4099999999999, "last_price": 993.365, "unrealized_pnl": 0.0, "opened_at": "2026-03-14T18:06:47.909233+00:00"}, {"symbol": "FII_CFD.FR", "qty": 0.0, "avg_price": 50.5, "last_price": 49.8, "unrealized_pnl": 0.0, "opened_at": "2026-03-29T10:09:56.528041+00:00"}, {"symbol": "FUTR_CFD.UK", "qty": 0.0, "avg_price": 403.9155793573515, "last_price": 368.42, "unrealized_pnl": 0.0, "opened_at": "2026-02-18T09:36:37.284518+00:00"}, {"symbol": "GNRC_CFD.US", "qty": 0.0, "avg_price": 200.66, "last_price": 198.98, "unrealized_pnl": 0.0, "opened_at": "2026-03-09T18:18:45.954380+00:00"}, {"symbol": "GO_CFD.US", "qty": 0.0, "avg_price": 6.53, "last_price": 6.35, "unrealized_pnl": 0.0, "opened_at": "2026-03-05T18:20:59.102726+00:00"}, {"symbol": "HAIN_CFD.US", "qty": 0.0, "avg_price": 0.8, "last_price": 0.8, "unrealized_pnl": 0.0, "opened_at": "2026-02-27T18:23:55.960577+00:00"}, {"symbol": "HELE_CFD.US", "qty": 0.0, "avg_price": 15.94, "last_price": 15.78, "unrealized_pnl": 0.0, "opened_at": "2026-03-16T18:18:58.833148+00:00"}, {"symbol": "HHFA_CFD.DE", "qty": 0.0, "avg_price": 22.4, "last_price": 21.947, "unrealized_pnl": 0.0, "opened_at": "2026-03-24T18:12:08.252730+00:00"}, {"symbol": "HIK_CFD.UK", "qty": 0.0, "avg_price": 1409.0, "last_price": 1342.0, "unrealized_pnl": -142.65436479772887, "opened_at": "2026-02-26T10:33:24.101894+00:00"}, {"symbol": "HMSO_CFD.UK", "qty": 8.600917431192661, "avg_price": 348.8, "last_price": 348.8, "unrealized_pnl": 0.0, "opened_at": "2026-02-23T18:14:12.978497+00:00"}, {"symbol": "HWDN_CFD.UK", "qty": 3.7783375314861463, "avg_price": 794.0, "last_price": 794.0, "unrealized_pnl": 0.0, "opened_at": "2026-03-20T10:26:40.341409+00:00"}, {"symbol": "IPO_CFD.UK", "qty": 0.0, "avg_price": 57.7, "last_price": 57.6, "unrealized_pnl": 0.0, "opened_at": "2026-02-20T09:33:44.817899+00:00"}, {"symbol": "ITV_CFD.UK", "qty": 0.0, "avg_price": 82.85, "last_price": 78.75, "unrealized_pnl": 0.0, "opened_at": "2026-03-13T10:07:39.444598+00:00"}, {"symbol": "IWG_CFD.UK", "qty": 0.0, "avg_price": 177.0, "last_price": 172.2, "unrealized_pnl": 0.0, "opened_at": "2026-03-19T18:04:14.272849+00:00"}, {"symbol": "JDW_CFD.UK", "qty": 4.514672686230249, "avg_price": 664.5, "last_price": 664.5, "unrealized_pnl": 0.0, "opened_at": "2026-03-15T10:35:48.762746+00:00"}, {"symbol": "KBCA_CFD.BE", "qty": 0.0, "avg_price": 75.3, "last_price": 75.1, "unrealized_pnl": 0.0, "opened_at": "2026-02-25T10:57:06.928276+00:00"}, {"symbol": "KEX_CFD.US", "qty": 24.390243902439025, "avg_price": 123.0, "last_price": 134.2, "unrealized_pnl": 273.1707317073168, "opened_at": "2026-03-09T18:18:45.954380+00:00"}, {"symbol": "KGF_CFD.UK", "qty": 0.0, "avg_price": 315.6, "last_price": 298.6, "unrealized_pnl": 0.0, "opened_at": "2026-03-14T10:03:26.036362+00:00"}, {"symbol": "LIO_CFD.UK", "qty": 23.300970873786408, "avg_price": 257.5, "last_price": 234.5, "unrealized_pnl": -535.9223300970874, "opened_at": "2026-02-21T09:33:26.900894+00:00"}, {"symbol": "LRE_CFD.UK", "qty": 5.208333333333333, "avg_price": 576.0, "last_price": 576.0, "unrealized_pnl": 0.0, "opened_at": "2026-03-30T17:49:05.858690+00:00"}, {"symbol": "LXS_CFD.DE", "qty": 0.0, "avg_price": 13.14, "last_price": 11.929, "unrealized_pnl": 0.0, "opened_at": "2026-03-06T10:33:43.857578+00:00"}, {"symbol": "MAB_CFD.UK", "qty": 10.624734381640458, "avg_price": 282.36, "last_price": 282.36, "unrealized_pnl": 0.0, "opened_at": "2026-03-21T17:59:11.913241+00:00"}, {"symbol": "MCG_CFD.UK", "qty": 153.76729882111735, "avg_price": 19.51, "last_price": 17.39, "unrealized_pnl": -325.9866735007689, "opened_at": "2026-03-26T17:55:26.602359+00:00"}, {"symbol": "MSLH_CFD.UK", "qty": 21.30681818181818, "avg_price": 140.8, "last_price": 140.8, "unrealized_pnl": 0.0, "opened_at": "2026-03-26T10:11:44.579260+00:00"}, {"symbol": "NXST_CFD.US", "qty": 0.0, "avg_price": 233.02, "last_price": 226.38, "unrealized_pnl": -85.48622435842437, "opened_at": "2026-03-15T18:15:23.812047+00:00"}, {"symbol": "OCDO_CFD.UK", "qty": 14.684287812041115, "avg_price": 204.3, "last_price": 204.3, "unrealized_pnl": 0.0, "opened_at": "2026-03-01T10:30:13.622938+00:00"}, {"symbol": "OSB_CFD.UK", "qty": 0.0, "avg_price": 558.5, "last_price": 544.0, "unrealized_pnl": -155.7743957027753, "opened_at": "2026-03-13T10:07:39.444598+00:00"}, {"symbol": "PAGE_CFD.UK", "qty": 0.0, "avg_price": 152.3039755753258, "last_price": 132.9, "unrealized_pnl": 0.0, "opened_at": "2026-02-22T09:32:59.506254+00:00"}, {"symbol": "PAG_CFD.UK", "qty": 11.757021554539516, "avg_price": 765.5, "last_price": 765.5, "unrealized_pnl": 0.0, "opened_at": "2026-03-23T10:03:51.599067+00:00"}, {"symbol": "PZC_CFD.UK", "qty": 41.03967168262654, "avg_price": 73.1, "last_price": 73.1, "unrealized_pnl": 0.0, "opened_at": "2026-03-29T10:09:56.528041+00:00"}, {"symbol": "REC_CFD.BE", "qty": 0.0, "avg_price": 11.08, "last_price": 10.68, "unrealized_pnl": 0.0, "opened_at": "2026-03-02T18:21:09.503139+00:00"}, {"symbol": "RHIM_CFD.UK", "qty": 2.5806451612903225, "avg_price": 2325.0, "last_price": 2325.0, "unrealized_pnl": 0.0, "opened_at": "2026-03-03T10:20:03.276878+00:00"}, {"symbol": "RMV_CFD.UK", "qty": 0.0, "avg_price": 424.3, "last_price": 416.0, "unrealized_pnl": 0.0, "opened_at": "2026-02-19T00:47:27.070066+00:00"}, {"symbol": "ROR_CFD.UK", "qty": 0.0, "avg_price": 315.64, "last_price": 309.4, "unrealized_pnl": 0.0, "opened_at": "2026-03-14T10:03:26.036362+00:00"}, {"symbol": "SAFE_CFD.UK", "qty": 4.662004662004662, "avg_price": 643.5, "last_price": 643.5, "unrealized_pnl": 0.0, "opened_at": "2026-03-23T18:04:09.108429+00:00"}, {"symbol": "SGE_CFD.UK", "qty": 0.0, "avg_price": 795.4, "last_price": 813.4, "unrealized_pnl": 0.0, "opened_at": "2026-02-16T17:30:52.485845+00:00"}, {"symbol": "SGRO_CFD.UK", "qty": 0.0, "avg_price": 735.4, "last_price": 723.8, "unrealized_pnl": 0.0, "opened_at": "2026-03-16T10:12:30.296045+00:00"}, {"symbol": "SHC_CFD.UK", "qty": 47.69475357710652, "avg_price": 125.8, "last_price": 125.8, "unrealized_pnl": 0.0, "opened_at": "2026-03-28T10:05:22.022266+00:00"}, {"symbol": "SYNT_CFD.UK", "qty": 0.0, "avg_price": 18.4, "last_price": 27.2, "unrealized_pnl": 0.0, "opened_at": "2026-03-03T18:03:34.247734+00:00"}, {"symbol": "TPK_CFD.UK", "qty": 5.328975415660082, "avg_price": 562.96, "last_price": 562.96, "unrealized_pnl": 0.0, "opened_at": "2026-03-21T10:00:02.317290+00:00"}, {"symbol": "TRN_CFD.UK", "qty": 0.0, "avg_price": 184.5, "last_price": 211.4, "unrealized_pnl": 0.0, "opened_at": "2026-03-05T10:27:11.178069+00:00"}, {"symbol": "UKW_CFD.UK", "qty": 64.97022198159178, "avg_price": 92.35, "last_price": 96.43, "unrealized_pnl": 265.0785056848953, "opened_at": "2026-02-20T09:33:44.817899+00:00"}, {"symbol": "UMG_CFD.NL", "qty": 0.0, "avg_price": 19.085, "last_price": 18.665, "unrealized_pnl": 0.0, "opened_at": "2026-02-19T09:33:49.074031+00:00"}, {"symbol": "UTG_CFD.UK", "qty": 0.0, "avg_price": 504.99999999999994, "last_price": 461.2, "unrealized_pnl": 0.0, "opened_at": "2026-03-04T10:26:53.527562+00:00"}, {"symbol": "VTY_CFD.UK", "qty": 0.0, "avg_price": 427.6, "last_price": 406.1, "unrealized_pnl": 0.0, "opened_at": "2026-03-10T18:24:41.570614+00:00"}, {"symbol": "WIZZ_CFD.UK", "qty": 3.4403669724770642, "avg_price": 872.0, "last_price": 857.0, "unrealized_pnl": -51.60550458715596, "opened_at": "2026-02-25T17:57:28.313088+00:00"}, {"symbol": "WKP_CFD.UK", "qty": 7.2727272727272725, "avg_price": 412.5, "last_price": 412.5, "unrealized_pnl": 0.0, "opened_at": "2026-03-30T10:23:56.039732+00:00"}, {"symbol": "WPP_CFD.UK", "qty": 0.0, "avg_price": 263.4, "last_price": 240.8, "unrealized_pnl": 0.0, "opened_at": "2026-02-16T17:30:52.485845+00:00"}, {"symbol": "WTB_CFD.UK", "qty": 1.279317697228145, "avg_price": 2345.0, "last_price": 2327.0, "unrealized_pnl": -23.02771855010661, "opened_at": "2026-03-13T18:17:31.188931+00:00"}, {"symbol": "XRX_CFD.US", "qty": 0.0, "avg_price": 1.56, "last_price": 1.52, "unrealized_pnl": 0.0, "opened_at": "2026-03-16T18:18:58.833148+00:00"}, {"symbol": "ZS_CFD.US", "qty": 0.0, "avg_price": 159.76, "last_price": 144.45, "unrealized_pnl": 0.0, "opened_at": "2026-02-21T17:32:49.140800+00:00"}], "candidates": [{"symbol": "PAGE_CFD.UK", "mean_reversion_score": 95, "selection_reason": "Strong negative 1d change and large negative distance from MAs"}, {"symbol": "FUTR_CFD.UK", "mean_reversion_score": 90, "selection_reason": "Significant negative 1d change and substantial negative MA distance"}, {"symbol": "CBG_CFD.UK", "mean_reversion_score": 85, "selection_reason": "Extreme negative 1d move and large negative MA divergence"}, {"symbol": "MCG_CFD.UK", "mean_reversion_score": 82, "selection_reason": "Large negative 1d change and substantial negative MA gap"}, {"symbol": "SHC_CFD.UK", "mean_reversion_score": 78, "selection_reason": "Near-neutral MA positioning with moderate volatility"}], "output_schema": {"actions": {"sell": [{"symbol": "string", "reason": "string"}], "hold": [{"symbol": "string", "reason": "string"}], "buy": [{"symbol": "string", "position_size": "number (currency amount)", "reason": "string"}]}, "portfolio_rationale": "string"}}
Output JSON
{
  "actions": {
    "buy": [
      {
        "reason": "High mean reversion score and oversold conditions",
        "symbol": "PAGE_CFD.UK",
        "position_size": 3000
      },
      {
        "reason": "Strong mean reversion indicators and negative MA divergence",
        "symbol": "FUTR_CFD.UK",
        "position_size": 3000
      }
    ],
    "hold": [
      {
        "reason": "Current price matches entry with no clear trend reversal",
        "symbol": "ABDN_CFD.UK"
      },
      {
        "reason": "No significant price movement detected",
        "symbol": "BBY_CFD.UK"
      },
      {
        "reason": "Price remains unchanged from entry",
        "symbol": "BYIT_CFD.UK"
      }
    ],
    "sell": [
      {
        "reason": "Clear negative divergence from moving averages and poor performance",
        "symbol": "MCG_CFD.UK"
      },
      {
        "reason": "Significant unrealized loss and negative trend indication",
        "symbol": "LIO_CFD.UK"
      }
    ]
  },
  "portfolio_rationale": "Reduced exposure to poorly performing assets (MCG/LIO) while adding high-conviction mean reversion candidates (PAGE/FUTR) based on technical indicators. Maintained stable positions showing no clear trend changes. Portfolio adjustments stay within 2 buy/sell limits and leverage constraints."
}
Selection logs
#920stage12026-03-31T12:52:20.123274+00:00
{
  "selected_stocks": [
    {
      "symbol": "PAGE_CFD.UK",
      "selection_reason": "Strong negative 1d change and large negative distance from MAs",
      "mean_reversion_score": 95
    },
    {
      "symbol": "FUTR_CFD.UK",
      "selection_reason": "Significant negative 1d change and substantial negative MA distance",
      "mean_reversion_score": 90
    },
    {
      "symbol": "CBG_CFD.UK",
      "selection_reason": "Extreme negative 1d move and large negative MA divergence",
      "mean_reversion_score": 85
    },
    {
      "symbol": "MCG_CFD.UK",
      "selection_reason": "Large negative 1d change and substantial negative MA gap",
      "mean_reversion_score": 82
    },
    {
      "symbol": "SHC_CFD.UK",
      "selection_reason": "Near-neutral MA positioning with moderate volatility",
      "mean_reversion_score": 78
    }
  ],
  "rejected_common_reasons": [
    "Extreme 1-day outliers (>+100% or <-50%)",
    "Missing technical indicators",
    "Insufficient mean-reversion potential"
  ]
}