Arena run #940

meanrev-v1moonshotaimoonshotai/kimi-k2-thinkingEUsuccess
Arena
Run status
as_of: 2026-03-30T10:23:56.039732+00:00
started_at: 2026-03-30T12:38:17.293423+00:00
finished_at: 2026-03-30T12:42:31.010196+00:00
duration_ms: 253715
Inputs
{
  "as_of": "2026-03-30T10:23:56.039732+00:00",
  "dry_run": false,
  "selected": [],
  "simulate_only": false,
  "strict_replay": false,
  "universe_symbols": [
    "CRST_CFD.UK",
    "MCG_CFD.UK",
    "BOY_CFD.UK",
    "LMP_CFD.UK",
    "SPX_CFD.UK",
    "PAGE_CFD.UK",
    "FUTR_CFD.UK",
    "ESNT_CFD.UK",
    "SHC_CFD.UK",
    "PAG_CFD.UK",
    "SAFE_CFD.UK",
    "RHIM_CFD.UK",
    "UTG_CFD.UK",
    "CBG_CFD.UK",
    "RSW_CFD.UK",
    "DLN_CFD.UK",
    "EMG_CFD.UK",
    "PZC_CFD.UK",
    "DOM_CFD.UK",
    "OCDO_CFD.UK",
    "HWDN_CFD.UK",
    "LRE_CFD.UK",
    "STJ_CFD.UK",
    "ABDN_CFD.UK",
    "LIO_CFD.UK",
    "BBY_CFD.UK",
    "CPG_CFD.UK",
    "TRST_CFD.UK",
    "KGF_CFD.UK",
    "PSN_CFD.UK",
    "PNL_CFD.NL",
    "BIG_CFD.FR",
    "GROW_CFD.UK",
    "GRG_CFD.UK",
    "SRP_CFD.UK",
    "BYIT_CFD.UK",
    "OSB_CFD.UK",
    "WKP_CFD.UK",
    "HIK_CFD.UK",
    "KOF_CFD.FR",
    "ATG_CFD.UK",
    "ROR_CFD.UK",
    "COTY_CFD.US",
    "UKW_CFD.UK",
    "HMSO_CFD.UK",
    "ALLFG_CFD.NL",
    "NVAX_CFD.US",
    "SKB_CFD.DE",
    "SGRO_CFD.UK"
  ]
}
Outputs
{
  "actions": {
    "buy": [
      {
        "reason": "Strong mean-reversion signal: -8.96% from avg_price (38.22 vs 41.98)",
        "symbol": "AML_CFD.UK",
        "position_size": 3000
      },
      {
        "reason": "Strong mean-reversion signal: -7.17% from avg_price (25.25 vs 27.2)",
        "symbol": "SYNT_CFD.UK",
        "position_size": 3000
      }
    ],
    "hold": [
      {
        "reason": "Flat position, no clear mean-reversion signal",
        "symbol": "AUTO_CFD.UK"
      },
      {
        "reason": "Flat position, no clear mean-reversion signal",
        "symbol": "CBG_CFD.UK"
      },
      {
        "reason": "Flat position, no clear mean-reversion signal",
        "symbol": "LRE_CFD.UK"
      },
      {
        "reason": "Flat position, no clear mean-reversion signal",
        "symbol": "MSLH_CFD.UK"
      },
      {
        "reason": "Flat position, no clear mean-reversion signal",
        "symbol": "OCDO_CFD.UK"
      },
      {
        "reason": "Down -3.97%, holding for mean-reversion bounce",
        "symbol": "PSN_CFD.UK"
      },
      {
        "reason": "Down -8.67%, strong mean-reversion signal, already positioned",
        "symbol": "UTG_CFD.UK"
      },
      {
        "reason": "Flat position, no clear mean-reversion signal",
        "symbol": "VTY_CFD.UK"
      }
    ],
    "sell": [
      {
        "reason": "Flat position (0% change) held since 2026-02-28, freeing slot for better mean-reversion opportunity",
        "symbol": "PAGE_CFD.UK"
      },
      {
        "reason": "Flat position (0% change) held since 2026-03-01, freeing slot for better mean-reversion opportunity",
        "symbol": "BYIT_CFD.UK"
      }
    ]
  },
  "portfolio_rationale": "Rebalancing to capitalize on stronger mean-reversion signals: selling two oldest flat positions (PAGE, BYIT) to free slots for oversold opportunities (AML -8.96%, SYNT -7.17%). Maintaining PSN and UTG which are already showing losses and positioned for reversion. Portfolio remains at max 10 positions and 3.0x gross leverage."
}
Prompts & responses
#1836openroutermoonshotai/kimi-k2-thinking2026-03-30T12:38:17.338902+00:00
System prompt
You are an Arena strategy executor. You must follow the strategy rules strictly and output ONLY valid JSON. You are NOT allowed to invent prices, fundamentals, earnings dates, or sentiment. If a field is null/empty, treat it as unknown. You are a constrained selector (no narrative).
User prompt
{"task": "stage1_universe_scan", "region": "EU", "strategy": {"key": "meanrev-v1", "name": "Two-Stage LLM Mean-Reversion (Arena v1)", "rules": {"max_positions": 10, "max_buys_per_run": 2, "avoid_overtrading": true, "max_sells_per_run": 2, "max_gross_leverage": 3.0, "fixed_position_size": 3000.0, "universe_symbols_eu": [], "universe_symbols_us": []}}, "selection_rules": {"horizon": "2-10 trading days", "target": "short-term mean reversion in liquid equities", "constraints": ["Select exactly 5 candidates", "Avoid earnings within 5 trading days (if known)", "Avoid highly binary/event-driven moves (if known)", "Avoid sector concentration: max 1 per sector unless clearly justified (sector may be unknown)"]}, "universe": [{"symbol": "CRST_CFD.UK", "name": "CREST NICHOLSON HOLDINGS", "sector": "", "last_price": 167.8, "change_1d_pct": 24.85119047619049, "distance_from_ma200_pct": 1.2720261375977815, "distance_from_ma50_pct": 17.82963155418549, "volatility_20d_pct": 158.46878099582966, "market_cap_usd": null, "avg_daily_volume_usd": null, "days_to_next_earnings": null, "earnings_confirmed": null, "news_sentiment_score": null, "news_headlines_last_3": [], "data_quality_note": "snapshot_ok_prices_technicals_only"}, {"symbol": "MCG_CFD.UK", "name": "MOBICO GROUP PLC", "sector": "", "last_price": 23.88, "change_1d_pct": -4.250200481154776, "distance_from_ma200_pct": -13.633157923289751, "distance_from_ma50_pct": 0.9358119246278163, "volatility_20d_pct": 236.12122528317374, "market_cap_usd": null, "avg_daily_volume_usd": null, "days_to_next_earnings": null, "earnings_confirmed": null, "news_sentiment_score": null, "news_headlines_last_3": [], "data_quality_note": "snapshot_ok_prices_technicals_only"}, {"symbol": "BOY_CFD.UK", "name": "BODYCOTE PLC", "sector": "", "last_price": 775.4, "change_1d_pct": 24.163330664531625, "distance_from_ma200_pct": 28.652243313347768, "distance_from_ma50_pct": 18.63612217470385, "volatility_20d_pct": 103.46484337510964, "market_cap_usd": null, "avg_daily_volume_usd": null, "days_to_next_earnings": null, "earnings_confirmed": null, "news_sentiment_score": null, "news_headlines_last_3": [], "data_quality_note": "snapshot_ok_prices_technicals_only"}, {"symbol": "LMP_CFD.UK", "name": "LONDONMETRIC PROPERTY PLC", "sector": "", "last_price": 214.0, "change_1d_pct": 11.57455683003128, "distance_from_ma200_pct": 12.507879494597773, "distance_from_ma50_pct": 10.77384329331672, "volatility_20d_pct": 54.89150861607771, "market_cap_usd": null, "avg_daily_volume_usd": null, "days_to_next_earnings": null, "earnings_confirmed": null, "news_sentiment_score": null, "news_headlines_last_3": [], "data_quality_note": "snapshot_ok_prices_technicals_only"}, {"symbol": "SPX_CFD.UK", "name": "SPIRAX-SARCO ENGINEERING PLC", "sector": "", "last_price": 7608.71, "change_1d_pct": 10.91413994169097, "distance_from_ma200_pct": 15.905097055024719, "distance_from_ma50_pct": 8.459177525660632, "volatility_20d_pct": 84.71063298478786, "market_cap_usd": null, "avg_daily_volume_usd": null, "days_to_next_earnings": null, "earnings_confirmed": null, "news_sentiment_score": null, "news_headlines_last_3": [], "data_quality_note": "snapshot_ok_prices_technicals_only"}, {"symbol": "PAGE_CFD.UK", "name": "PAGEGROUP PLC", "sector": "", "last_price": 152.7, "change_1d_pct": -36.79635761589404, "distance_from_ma200_pct": -40.61156091058385, "distance_from_ma50_pct": -31.72721647345812, "volatility_20d_pct": 193.22753953431183, "market_cap_usd": null, "avg_daily_volume_usd": null, "days_to_next_earnings": null, "earnings_confirmed": null, "news_sentiment_score": null, "news_headlines_last_3": [], "data_quality_note": "snapshot_ok_prices_technicals_only"}, {"symbol": "FUTR_CFD.UK", "name": "FUTURE PLC", "sector": "", "last_price": 419.8, "change_1d_pct": -21.238273921200744, "distance_from_ma200_pct": -37.8057811437588, "distance_from_ma50_pct": -23.777028015845957, "volatility_20d_pct": 154.26286041137905, "market_cap_usd": null, "avg_daily_volume_usd": null, "days_to_next_earnings": null, "earnings_confirmed": null, "news_sentiment_score": null, "news_headlines_last_3": [], "data_quality_note": "snapshot_ok_prices_technicals_only"}, {"symbol": "ESNT_CFD.UK", "name": "ESSENTRA PLC", "sector": "", "last_price": 108.4, "change_1d_pct": 4.230769230769238, "distance_from_ma200_pct": 7.40452119530135, "distance_from_ma50_pct": 9.771484932749797, "volatility_20d_pct": 98.9832071461764, "market_cap_usd": null, "avg_daily_volume_usd": null, "days_to_next_earnings": null, "earnings_confirmed": null, "news_sentiment_score": null, "news_headlines_last_3": [], "data_quality_note": "snapshot_ok_prices_technicals_only"}, {"symbol": "SHC_CFD.UK", "name": "SHAFTESBURY CAPITAL PLC", "sector": "", "last_price": 140.4, "change_1d_pct": -2.9045643153526868, "distance_from_ma200_pct": 0.26963533347688085, "distance_from_ma50_pct": -0.771073778544229, "volatility_20d_pct": 63.75522821252001, "market_cap_usd": null, "avg_daily_volume_usd": null, "days_to_next_earnings": null, "earnings_confirmed": null, "news_sentiment_score": null, "news_headlines_last_3": [], "data_quality_note": "snapshot_ok_prices_technicals_only"}, {"symbol": "PAG_CFD.UK", "name": "PARAGON BANKING GROUP PLC", "sector": "", "last_price": 852.5, "change_1d_pct": -3.399433427762044, "distance_from_ma200_pct": -1.3404962254783492, "distance_from_ma50_pct": 0.699141440891915, "volatility_20d_pct": 71.52779356208148, "market_cap_usd": null, "avg_daily_volume_usd": null, "days_to_next_earnings": null, "earnings_confirmed": null, "news_sentiment_score": null, "news_headlines_last_3": [], "data_quality_note": "snapshot_ok_prices_technicals_only"}, {"symbol": "SAFE_CFD.UK", "name": "SAFESTORE HOLDINGS PLC", "sector": "", "last_price": 708.0, "change_1d_pct": 0.14144271570013522, "distance_from_ma200_pct": 7.079918522466522, "distance_from_ma50_pct": -2.535991476029087, "volatility_20d_pct": 107.99712610776675, "market_cap_usd": null, "avg_daily_volume_usd": null, "days_to_next_earnings": null, "earnings_confirmed": null, "news_sentiment_score": null, "news_headlines_last_3": [], "data_quality_note": "snapshot_ok_prices_technicals_only"}, {"symbol": "RHIM_CFD.UK", "name": "RHI MAGNESITA NV", "sector": "", "last_price": 2550.0, "change_1d_pct": -6.764168190127973, "distance_from_ma200_pct": -2.35709026809392, "distance_from_ma50_pct": 0.9429816244979738, "volatility_20d_pct": 151.25590362229855, "market_cap_usd": null, "avg_daily_volume_usd": null, "days_to_next_earnings": null, "earnings_confirmed": null, "news_sentiment_score": null, "news_headlines_last_3": [], "data_quality_note": "snapshot_ok_prices_technicals_only"}, {"symbol": "UTG_CFD.UK", "name": "UNITE GROUP PLC/THE", "sector": "", "last_price": 505.0, "change_1d_pct": -8.265213442325159, "distance_from_ma200_pct": -32.12786599325862, "distance_from_ma50_pct": -13.548388422126267, "volatility_20d_pct": 98.87339279796446, "market_cap_usd": null, "avg_daily_volume_usd": null, "days_to_next_earnings": null, "earnings_confirmed": null, "news_sentiment_score": null, "news_headlines_last_3": [], "data_quality_note": "snapshot_ok_prices_technicals_only"}, {"symbol": "CBG_CFD.UK", "name": "CLOSE BROTHERS GROUP PLC", "sector": "", "last_price": 372.74, "change_1d_pct": -26.625984251968504, "distance_from_ma200_pct": -13.365429078084645, "distance_from_ma50_pct": -22.129222788055436, "volatility_20d_pct": 169.0552301316783, "market_cap_usd": null, "avg_daily_volume_usd": null, "days_to_next_earnings": null, "earnings_confirmed": null, "news_sentiment_score": null, "news_headlines_last_3": [], "data_quality_note": "snapshot_ok_prices_technicals_only"}, {"symbol": "RSW_CFD.UK", "name": "RENISHAW PLC", "sector": "", "last_price": 4100.0, "change_1d_pct": 18.155619596541793, "distance_from_ma200_pct": 36.779911314574385, "distance_from_ma50_pct": 14.333028240759926, "volatility_20d_pct": 92.61568245477878, "market_cap_usd": null, "avg_daily_volume_usd": null, "days_to_next_earnings": null, "earnings_confirmed": null, "news_sentiment_score": null, "news_headlines_last_3": [], "data_quality_note": "snapshot_ok_prices_technicals_only"}, {"symbol": "DLN_CFD.UK", "name": "DERWENT LONDON PLC", "sector": "", "last_price": 1953.0, "change_1d_pct": 10.401356698699837, "distance_from_ma200_pct": 5.069478604951705, "distance_from_ma50_pct": 12.150447212111025, "volatility_20d_pct": 115.39088732649292, "market_cap_usd": null, "avg_daily_volume_usd": null, "days_to_next_earnings": null, "earnings_confirmed": null, "news_sentiment_score": null, "news_headlines_last_3": [], "data_quality_note": "snapshot_ok_prices_technicals_only"}, {"symbol": "EMG_CFD.UK", "name": "MAN GROUP PLC/JERSEY", "sector": "", "last_price": 269.6, "change_1d_pct": 2.353834472285521, "distance_from_ma200_pct": 42.186331073171914, "distance_from_ma50_pct": 15.516783354614262, "volatility_20d_pct": 86.92367167139048, "market_cap_usd": null, "avg_daily_volume_usd": null, "days_to_next_earnings": null, "earnings_confirmed": null, "news_sentiment_score": null, "news_headlines_last_3": [], "data_quality_note": "snapshot_ok_prices_technicals_only"}, {"symbol": "PZC_CFD.UK", "name": "PZ CUSSONS PLC", "sector": "", "last_price": 77.7, "change_1d_pct": -13.858093126385807, "distance_from_ma200_pct": 2.9808107121248817, "distance_from_ma50_pct": 2.5905093876257723, "volatility_20d_pct": 92.73478468401771, "market_cap_usd": null, "avg_daily_volume_usd": null, "days_to_next_earnings": null, "earnings_confirmed": null, "news_sentiment_score": null, "news_headlines_last_3": [], "data_quality_note": "snapshot_ok_prices_technicals_only"}, {"symbol": "DOM_CFD.UK", "name": "DOMINO'S PIZZA GROUP PLC", "sector": "", "last_price": 183.13, "change_1d_pct": -0.3102885138813294, "distance_from_ma200_pct": -15.070952368916624, "distance_from_ma50_pct": 1.0777282376278619, "volatility_20d_pct": 87.92203351330001, "market_cap_usd": null, "avg_daily_volume_usd": null, "days_to_next_earnings": null, "earnings_confirmed": null, "news_sentiment_score": null, "news_headlines_last_3": [], "data_quality_note": "snapshot_ok_prices_technicals_only"}, {"symbol": "OCDO_CFD.UK", "name": "OCADO GROUP PLC", "sector": "", "last_price": 217.0, "change_1d_pct": -21.148255813953487, "distance_from_ma200_pct": -15.81606625159202, "distance_from_ma50_pct": -5.48311196636071, "volatility_20d_pct": 241.3119670937803, "market_cap_usd": null, "avg_daily_volume_usd": null, "days_to_next_earnings": null, "earnings_confirmed": null, "news_sentiment_score": null, "news_headlines_last_3": [], "data_quality_note": "snapshot_ok_prices_technicals_only"}, {"symbol": "HWDN_CFD.UK", "name": "HOWDEN JOINERY GROUP PLC", "sector": "", "last_price": 843.0, "change_1d_pct": -2.686229466563539, "distance_from_ma200_pct": 2.9144756901175572, "distance_from_ma50_pct": 0.6796292983215046, "volatility_20d_pct": 44.16384759940265, "market_cap_usd": null, "avg_daily_volume_usd": null, "days_to_next_earnings": null, "earnings_confirmed": null, "news_sentiment_score": null, "news_headlines_last_3": [], "data_quality_note": "snapshot_ok_prices_technicals_only"}, {"symbol": "LRE_CFD.UK", "name": "LANCASHIRE HOLDINGS LTD", "sector": "", "last_price": 611.0, "change_1d_pct": -7.424242424242422, "distance_from_ma200_pct": 0.4068944205071867, "distance_from_ma50_pct": -6.396619125545266, "volatility_20d_pct": 86.32350801127552, "market_cap_usd": null, "avg_daily_volume_usd": null, "days_to_next_earnings": null, "earnings_confirmed": null, "news_sentiment_score": null, "news_headlines_last_3": [], "data_quality_note": "snapshot_ok_prices_technicals_only"}, {"symbol": "STJ_CFD.UK", "name": "ST JAMES'S PLACE PLC", "sector": "", "last_price": 1280.0, "change_1d_pct": -14.836992681304062, "distance_from_ma200_pct": 4.633703562254432, "distance_from_ma50_pct": -6.669417974449299, "volatility_20d_pct": 125.87476157380789, "market_cap_usd": null, "avg_daily_volume_usd": null, "days_to_next_earnings": null, "earnings_confirmed": null, "news_sentiment_score": null, "news_headlines_last_3": [], "data_quality_note": "snapshot_ok_prices_technicals_only"}, {"symbol": "ABDN_CFD.UK", "name": "Aberdeen Group Plc", "sector": "", "last_price": 202.6, "change_1d_pct": -7.741347905282336, "distance_from_ma200_pct": 6.460345885775287, "distance_from_ma50_pct": -2.3285905331046353, "volatility_20d_pct": 82.55854119558269, "market_cap_usd": null, "avg_daily_volume_usd": null, "days_to_next_earnings": null, "earnings_confirmed": null, "news_sentiment_score": null, "news_headlines_last_3": [], "data_quality_note": "snapshot_ok_prices_technicals_only"}, {"symbol": "LIO_CFD.UK", "name": "LIONTRUST ASSET MANAGEMENT", "sector": "", "last_price": 257.5, "change_1d_pct": -4.629629629629628, "distance_from_ma200_pct": -20.98457818422561, "distance_from_ma50_pct": -0.39493890244891583, "volatility_20d_pct": 5544.13069622931, "market_cap_usd": null, "avg_daily_volume_usd": null, "days_to_next_earnings": null, "earnings_confirmed": null, "news_sentiment_score": null, "news_headlines_last_3": [], "data_quality_note": "snapshot_ok_prices_technicals_only"}, {"symbol": "BBY_CFD.UK", "name": "BALFOUR BEATTY PLC", "sector": "", "last_price": 722.5, "change_1d_pct": -1.0951403148528382, "distance_from_ma200_pct": null, "distance_from_ma50_pct": -1.628407265201648, "volatility_20d_pct": 2239.4661443465884, "market_cap_usd": null, "avg_daily_volume_usd": null, "days_to_next_earnings": null, "earnings_confirmed": null, "news_sentiment_score": null, "news_headlines_last_3": [], "data_quality_note": "snapshot_ok_prices_technicals_only"}, {"symbol": "CPG_CFD.UK", "name": "COMPASS GROUP PLC", "sector": "", "last_price": 2287.0, "change_1d_pct": -0.823937554206422, "distance_from_ma200_pct": null, "distance_from_ma50_pct": 2.8011537977172374, "volatility_20d_pct": 2808.1897930853006, "market_cap_usd": null, "avg_daily_volume_usd": null, "days_to_next_earnings": null, "earnings_confirmed": null, "news_sentiment_score": null, "news_headlines_last_3": [], "data_quality_note": "snapshot_ok_prices_technicals_only"}, {"symbol": "TRST_CFD.UK", "name": "TRUSTPILOT AS", "sector": "", "last_price": 193.5, "change_1d_pct": 44.080416976917334, "distance_from_ma200_pct": -9.566423578720663, "distance_from_ma50_pct": 7.968463165177786, "volatility_20d_pct": 306.1390586005606, "market_cap_usd": null, "avg_daily_volume_usd": null, "days_to_next_earnings": null, "earnings_confirmed": null, "news_sentiment_score": null, "news_headlines_last_3": [], "data_quality_note": "snapshot_ok_prices_technicals_only"}, {"symbol": "KGF_CFD.UK", "name": "KINGFISHER PLC", "sector": "", "last_price": 298.6, "change_1d_pct": -16.592178770949715, "distance_from_ma200_pct": 1.7661505198389493, "distance_from_ma50_pct": -8.10124743477527, "volatility_20d_pct": 106.76236046208503, "market_cap_usd": null, "avg_daily_volume_usd": null, "days_to_next_earnings": null, "earnings_confirmed": null, "news_sentiment_score": null, "news_headlines_last_3": [], "data_quality_note": "snapshot_ok_prices_technicals_only"}, {"symbol": "PSN_CFD.UK", "name": "PERSIMMON PLC", "sector": "", "last_price": 1125.0, "change_1d_pct": -18.181818181818176, "distance_from_ma200_pct": -10.441765693528215, "distance_from_ma50_pct": -17.60321899687448, "volatility_20d_pct": 125.39714948121237, "market_cap_usd": null, "avg_daily_volume_usd": null, "days_to_next_earnings": null, "earnings_confirmed": null, "news_sentiment_score": null, "news_headlines_last_3": [], "data_quality_note": "snapshot_ok_prices_technicals_only"}, {"symbol": "PNL_CFD.NL", "name": "PostNL", "sector": "", "last_price": 1.072, "change_1d_pct": -4.541406945681203, "distance_from_ma200_pct": 4.171221728251107, "distance_from_ma50_pct": -6.07366908491922, "volatility_20d_pct": 61.366406422263864, "market_cap_usd": null, "avg_daily_volume_usd": null, "days_to_next_earnings": null, "earnings_confirmed": null, "news_sentiment_score": null, "news_headlines_last_3": [], "data_quality_note": "snapshot_ok_prices_technicals_only"}, {"symbol": "BIG_CFD.FR", "name": "Bigben Interactive", "sector": "", "last_price": 0.277, "change_1d_pct": -5.782312925170052, "distance_from_ma200_pct": -73.73013163385305, "distance_from_ma50_pct": -55.795991318779514, "volatility_20d_pct": 291.9059308593785, "market_cap_usd": null, "avg_daily_volume_usd": null, "days_to_next_earnings": null, "earnings_confirmed": null, "news_sentiment_score": null, "news_headlines_last_3": [], "data_quality_note": "snapshot_ok_prices_technicals_only"}, {"symbol": "GROW_CFD.UK", "name": "MOLTEN VENTURES PLC", "sector": "", "last_price": 465.0, "change_1d_pct": 1.572739187418093, "distance_from_ma200_pct": 22.569628774815076, "distance_from_ma50_pct": -4.275686024250158, "volatility_20d_pct": 115.72658030340939, "market_cap_usd": null, "avg_daily_volume_usd": null, "days_to_next_earnings": null, "earnings_confirmed": null, "news_sentiment_score": null, "news_headlines_last_3": [], "data_quality_note": "snapshot_ok_prices_technicals_only"}, {"symbol": "GRG_CFD.UK", "name": "GREGGS PLC", "sector": "", "last_price": 1529.0, "change_1d_pct": -2.9206349206349236, "distance_from_ma200_pct": -8.939548634961259, "distance_from_ma50_pct": -6.2632574039152455, "volatility_20d_pct": 114.30891013276798, "market_cap_usd": null, "avg_daily_volume_usd": null, "days_to_next_earnings": null, "earnings_confirmed": null, "news_sentiment_score": null, "news_headlines_last_3": [], "data_quality_note": "snapshot_ok_prices_technicals_only"}, {"symbol": "SRP_CFD.UK", "name": "SERCO GROUP PLC", "sector": "", "last_price": 300.0, "change_1d_pct": -0.3984063745019917, "distance_from_ma200_pct": 34.11120814305375, "distance_from_ma50_pct": 6.89280433272168, "volatility_20d_pct": 77.89780733903845, "market_cap_usd": null, "avg_daily_volume_usd": null, "days_to_next_earnings": null, "earnings_confirmed": null, "news_sentiment_score": null, "news_headlines_last_3": [], "data_quality_note": "snapshot_ok_prices_technicals_only"}, {"symbol": "BYIT_CFD.UK", "name": "BYTES TECHNOLOGY GROUP PLC", "sector": "", "last_price": 316.4, "change_1d_pct": 1.9329896907216426, "distance_from_ma200_pct": null, "distance_from_ma50_pct": -3.036395062333752, "volatility_20d_pct": 3610.9502328075146, "market_cap_usd": null, "avg_daily_volume_usd": null, "days_to_next_earnings": null, "earnings_confirmed": null, "news_sentiment_score": null, "news_headlines_last_3": [], "data_quality_note": "snapshot_ok_prices_technicals_only"}, {"symbol": "OSB_CFD.UK", "name": "OSB GROUP PLC", "sector": "", "last_price": 528.5, "change_1d_pct": -16.244057052297943, "distance_from_ma200_pct": -1.8378243844316744, "distance_from_ma50_pct": -10.974869814433564, "volatility_20d_pct": 90.32554714918702, "market_cap_usd": null, "avg_daily_volume_usd": null, "days_to_next_earnings": null, "earnings_confirmed": null, "news_sentiment_score": null, "news_headlines_last_3": [], "data_quality_note": "snapshot_ok_prices_technicals_only"}, {"symbol": "WKP_CFD.UK", "name": "WORKSPACE GROUP PLC", "sector": "", "last_price": 423.0, "change_1d_pct": 3.6764705882353033, "distance_from_ma200_pct": 1.8640028868691871, "distance_from_ma50_pct": 5.808194506978848, "volatility_20d_pct": 70.2233148398582, "market_cap_usd": null, "avg_daily_volume_usd": null, "days_to_next_earnings": null, "earnings_confirmed": null, "news_sentiment_score": null, "news_headlines_last_3": [], "data_quality_note": "snapshot_ok_prices_technicals_only"}, {"symbol": "HIK_CFD.UK", "name": "HIKMA PHARMACEUTICALS PLC", "sector": "", "last_price": 1267.0, "change_1d_pct": -19.55555555555556, "distance_from_ma200_pct": -28.881851790845626, "distance_from_ma50_pct": -15.711709832205766, "volatility_20d_pct": 155.5956600941246, "market_cap_usd": null, "avg_daily_volume_usd": null, "days_to_next_earnings": null, "earnings_confirmed": null, "news_sentiment_score": null, "news_headlines_last_3": [], "data_quality_note": "snapshot_ok_prices_technicals_only"}, {"symbol": "KOF_CFD.FR", "name": "Kaufman & Broad", "sector": "", "last_price": 28.7, "change_1d_pct": -2.876480541455162, "distance_from_ma200_pct": -4.956737929795485, "distance_from_ma50_pct": -6.483831152158304, "volatility_20d_pct": 56.36298173666459, "market_cap_usd": null, "avg_daily_volume_usd": null, "days_to_next_earnings": null, "earnings_confirmed": null, "news_sentiment_score": null, "news_headlines_last_3": [], "data_quality_note": "snapshot_ok_prices_technicals_only"}, {"symbol": "ATG_CFD.UK", "name": "AUCTION TECHNOLOGY GROUP", "sector": "", "last_price": 326.5, "change_1d_pct": 12.006861063464846, "distance_from_ma200_pct": -24.987260470422935, "distance_from_ma50_pct": 5.84429056770146, "volatility_20d_pct": 172.45012969704524, "market_cap_usd": null, "avg_daily_volume_usd": null, "days_to_next_earnings": null, "earnings_confirmed": null, "news_sentiment_score": null, "news_headlines_last_3": [], "data_quality_note": "snapshot_ok_prices_technicals_only"}, {"symbol": "ROR_CFD.UK", "name": "ROTORK PLC", "sector": "", "last_price": 315.64, "change_1d_pct": -7.815420560747666, "distance_from_ma200_pct": -3.440121571713639, "distance_from_ma50_pct": -7.465605958975752, "volatility_20d_pct": 114.53961834922319, "market_cap_usd": null, "avg_daily_volume_usd": null, "days_to_next_earnings": null, "earnings_confirmed": null, "news_sentiment_score": null, "news_headlines_last_3": [], "data_quality_note": "snapshot_ok_prices_technicals_only"}, {"symbol": "COTY_CFD.US", "name": "Coty Inc", "sector": "", "last_price": 2.05, "change_1d_pct": -3.7558685446009377, "distance_from_ma200_pct": -45.233292814875185, "distance_from_ma50_pct": -22.100623195014435, "volatility_20d_pct": 76.36828551252826, "market_cap_usd": null, "avg_daily_volume_usd": null, "days_to_next_earnings": null, "earnings_confirmed": null, "news_sentiment_score": null, "news_headlines_last_3": [], "data_quality_note": "snapshot_ok_prices_technicals_only"}, {"symbol": "UKW_CFD.UK", "name": "GREENCOAT UK WIND PLC", "sector": "", "last_price": 100.7, "change_1d_pct": 1.6658253407370038, "distance_from_ma200_pct": -9.705655680854775, "distance_from_ma50_pct": -2.946868470357833, "volatility_20d_pct": 63.21786303082545, "market_cap_usd": null, "avg_daily_volume_usd": null, "days_to_next_earnings": null, "earnings_confirmed": null, "news_sentiment_score": null, "news_headlines_last_3": [], "data_quality_note": "snapshot_ok_prices_technicals_only"}, {"symbol": "HMSO_CFD.UK", "name": "HAMMERSON PLC", "sector": "", "last_price": 355.4, "change_1d_pct": 14.129736673089276, "distance_from_ma200_pct": 22.516025502913806, "distance_from_ma50_pct": 10.006914897239172, "volatility_20d_pct": 87.54938293511039, "market_cap_usd": null, "avg_daily_volume_usd": null, "days_to_next_earnings": null, "earnings_confirmed": null, "news_sentiment_score": null, "news_headlines_last_3": [], "data_quality_note": "snapshot_ok_prices_technicals_only"}, {"symbol": "ALLFG_CFD.NL", "name": "ALLFUNDS GROUP PLC", "sector": "", "last_price": 8.405, "change_1d_pct": -0.8844339622641639, "distance_from_ma200_pct": 30.92501914028758, "distance_from_ma50_pct": 5.137936469416782, "volatility_20d_pct": 204.89479947101123, "market_cap_usd": null, "avg_daily_volume_usd": null, "days_to_next_earnings": null, "earnings_confirmed": null, "news_sentiment_score": null, "news_headlines_last_3": [], "data_quality_note": "snapshot_ok_prices_technicals_only"}, {"symbol": "NVAX_CFD.US", "name": "NOVAVAX INC", "sector": "", "last_price": 8.61, "change_1d_pct": -10.68464730290457, "distance_from_ma200_pct": 7.390753918016313, "distance_from_ma50_pct": -8.001025772534954, "volatility_20d_pct": 178.31142153329148, "market_cap_usd": null, "avg_daily_volume_usd": null, "days_to_next_earnings": null, "earnings_confirmed": null, "news_sentiment_score": null, "news_headlines_last_3": [], "data_quality_note": "snapshot_ok_prices_technicals_only"}, {"symbol": "SKB_CFD.DE", "name": "Koenig & Bauer AG", "sector": "", "last_price": 7.98, "change_1d_pct": -7.20930232558139, "distance_from_ma200_pct": -32.93599169011385, "distance_from_ma50_pct": -12.28436573242555, "volatility_20d_pct": 98.22908386605988, "market_cap_usd": null, "avg_daily_volume_usd": null, "days_to_next_earnings": null, "earnings_confirmed": null, "news_sentiment_score": null, "news_headlines_last_3": [], "data_quality_note": "snapshot_ok_prices_technicals_only"}, {"symbol": "SGRO_CFD.UK", "name": "SEGRO PLC", "sector": "", "last_price": 735.4, "change_1d_pct": -2.051145444858815, "distance_from_ma200_pct": 8.121221031738735, "distance_from_ma50_pct": 0.6415109419246168, "volatility_20d_pct": 82.62107653630062, "market_cap_usd": null, "avg_daily_volume_usd": null, "days_to_next_earnings": null, "earnings_confirmed": null, "news_sentiment_score": null, "news_headlines_last_3": [], "data_quality_note": "snapshot_ok_prices_technicals_only"}], "output_schema": {"selected_stocks": [{"symbol": "string", "mean_reversion_score": "integer 0-100", "selection_reason": "short, concrete, indicator-based"}], "rejected_common_reasons": ["string"]}}
Output JSON
{
  "raw": {
    "id": "gen-1774874297-QfouCmCK0h6h3nHhb7AK",
    "model": "moonshotai/kimi-k2-thinking-20251106",
    "usage": {
      "cost": 0.011977234,
      "is_byok": false,
      "cost_details": {
        "upstream_inference_cost": 0.011977234,
        "upstream_inference_prompt_cost": 0.003977234,
        "upstream_inference_completions_cost": 0.008
      },
      "total_tokens": 12507,
      "prompt_tokens": 8507,
      "completion_tokens": 4000,
      "prompt_tokens_details": {
        "audio_tokens": 0,
        "video_tokens": 0,
        "cached_tokens": 64,
        "cache_write_tokens": 0
      },
      "completion_tokens_details": {
        "audio_tokens": 0,
        "image_tokens": 0,
        "reasoning_tokens": 2485
      }
    },
    "object": "chat.completion",
    "choices": [
      {
        "index": 0,
        "message": {
          "role": "assistant",
          "content": null,
          "refusal": null,
          "reasoning": " The user wants me to act as an \"Arena strategy executor\" for a mean-reversion strategy. I must:\n1. Follow the strategy rules strictly\n2. Output ONLY valid JSON\n3. NOT invent any data (prices, fundamentals, earnings, sentiment)\n4. Treat null/empty fields as unknown\n5. Be a \"constrained selector\" (no narrative)\n6. Select exactly 5 candidates from the EU universe provided\n7. Avoid earnings within 5 days (unknown in data, so this constraint is moot)\n8. Avoid binary/event-driven moves (unknown in data, so moot)\n9. Avoid sector concentration (max 1 per sector unless justified - but sectors are all empty strings, so this is also moot)\n10. The strategy is \"Two-Stage LLM Mean-Reversion (Arena v1)\" targeting short-term mean reversion in liquid equities over 2-10 trading days\n\nKey indicators I have for each stock:\n- symbol\n- name\n- sector (all empty)\n- last_price\n- change_1d_pct (daily change)\n- distance_from_ma200_pct (distance from 200-day moving average)\n- distance_from_ma50_pct (distance from 50-day moving average)\n- volatility_20d_pct (20-day volatility)\n- market_cap_usd (all null)\n- avg_daily_volume_usd (all null)\n- days_to_next_earnings (all null)\n- earnings_confirmed (all null)\n- news_sentiment_score (all null)\n- news_headlines_last_3 (all empty arrays)\n- data_quality_note\n\nFor mean reversion, I should look for:\n- Stocks that have moved significantly in one direction (large positive or negative change_1d_pct)\n- Stocks that are extended far from their moving averages (high absolute distance_from_ma50_pct or distance_from_ma200_pct)\n- Reasonable volatility (not too low, not excessively high)\n- Liquid stocks (but volume data is missing, so I have to infer from price levels and general characteristics)\n\nSince sectors are all empty, I cannot enforce sector diversification. Since earnings data is null, I cannot enforce the earnings avoidance rule. I must work with what I have.\n\nLet me analyze the candidates:\n\n**Large positive movers (potential short candidates for mean reversion):**\n1. **CRST_CFD.UK**: +24.85%, +17.83% from MA50, +1.27% from MA200, vol 158%\n2. **BOY_CFD.UK**: +24.16%, +18.64% from MA50, +28.65% from MA200, vol 103%\n3. **RSW_CFD.UK**: +18.16%, +14.33% from MA50, +36.78% from MA200, vol 92.6%\n4. **LMP_CFD.UK**: +11.57%, +10.77% from MA50, +12.51% from MA200, vol 54.9%\n5. **SPX_CFD.UK**: +10.91%, +8.46% from MA50, +15.91% from MA200, vol 84.7%\n6. **DLN_CFD.UK**: +10.40%, +12.15% from MA50, +5.07% from MA200, vol 115.4%\n7. **EMG_CFD.UK**: +2.35%, +15.52% from MA50, +42.19% from MA200, vol 86.9%\n8. **ATG_CFD.UK**: +12.01%, +5.84% from MA50, -24.99% from MA200, vol 172.5%\n9. **HMSO_CFD.UK**: +14.13%, +10.01% from MA50, +22.52% from MA200, vol 87.5%\n\n**Large negative movers (potential long candidates for mean reversion):**\n1. **PAGE_CFD.UK**: -36.80%, -31.73% from MA50, -40.61% from MA200, vol 193.2%\n2. **CBG_CFD.UK**: -26.63%, -22.13% from MA50, -13.37% from MA200, vol 169.1%\n3. **FUTR_CFD.UK**: -21.24%, -23.78% from MA50, -37.81% from MA200, vol 154.3%\n4. **OCDO_CFD.UK**: -21.15%, -5.48% from MA50, -15.82% from MA200, vol 241.3%\n5. **PSN_CFD.UK**: -18.18%, -17.60% from MA50, -10.44% from MA200, vol 125.4%\n6. **KGF_CFD.UK**: -16.59%, -8.10% from MA50, +1.77% from MA200, vol 106.8%\n7. **OSB_CFD.UK**: -16.24%, -10.97% from MA50, -1.84% from MA200, vol 90.3%\n8. **HIK_CFD.UK**: -19.56%, -15.71% from MA50, -28.88% from MA200, vol 155.6%\n9. **STJ_CFD.UK**: -14.84%, -6.67% from MA50, +4.63% from MA200, vol 125.9%\n10. **PZC_CFD.UK**: -13.86%, +2.59% from MA50, +2.98% from MA200, vol 92.7%\n11. **MCG_CFD.UK**: -4.25%, +0.94% from MA50, -13.63% from MA200, vol 236.1%\n12. **RHIM_CFD.UK**: -6.76%, +0.94% from MA50, -2.36% from MA200, vol 151.3%\n13. **UTG_CFD.UK**: -8.27%, -13.55% from MA50, -32.13% from MA200, vol 98.9%\n14. **ROR_CFD.UK**: -7.82%, -7.47% from MA50, -3.44% from MA200, vol 114.5%\n15. **LIO_CFD.UK**: -4.63%, -0.39% from MA50, -20.98% from MA200, vol 5544% (extremely high!)\n16. **ABDN_CFD.UK**: -7.74%, -2.33% from MA50, +6.46% from MA200, vol 82.6%\n17. **DOM_CFD.UK**: -0.31%, +1.08% from MA50, -15.07% from MA200, vol 87.9%\n18. **PAG_CFD.UK**: -3.40%, +0.70% from MA50, -1.34% from MA200, vol 71.5%\n19. **SAFE_CFD.UK**: +0.14%, -2.54% from MA50, +7.08% from MA200, vol 108%\n20. **SHC_CFD.UK**: -2.90%, -0.77% from MA50, +0.27% from MA200, vol 63.8%\n21. **WKP_CFD.UK**: +3.68%, +5.81% from MA50, +1.86% from MA200, vol 70.2%\n22. **BBY_CFD.UK**: -1.10%, -1.63% from MA50, null for MA200, vol 2239% (extremely high!)\n23. **CPG_CFD.UK**: -0.82%, +2.80% from MA50, null for MA200, vol 2808% (extremely high!)\n24. **TRST_CFD.UK**: +44.08%, +7.97% from MA50, -9.57% from MA200, vol 306% (very high!)\n25. **GROW_CFD.UK**: +1.57%, -4.28% from MA50, +22.57% from MA200, vol 115.7%\n26. **GRG_CFD.UK**: -2.92%, -6.26% from MA50, -8.94% from MA200, vol 114.3%\n27. **SRP_CFD.UK**: -0.40%, +6.89% from MA50, +34.11% from MA200, vol 77.9%\n28. **BYIT_CFD.UK**: +1.93%, -3.04% from MA50, null for MA200, vol 3611% (extremely high!)\n29. **SGRO_CFD.UK**: -2.05%, +0.64% from MA50, +8.12% from MA200, vol 82.6%\n\n**Extreme volatility stocks to potentially avoid:**\n- LIO_CFD.UK: 5544% volatility (crazy high)\n- BBY_CFD.UK: 2239% volatility (crazy high)\n- CPG_CFD.UK: 2808% volatility (crazy high)\n- BYIT_CFD.UK: 3611% volatility (crazy high)\n- TRST_CFD.UK: 306% volatility (very high)\n\nFor mean reversion, I want stocks that have:\n1. Made a significant move today (large absolute change_1d_pct)\n2. Are extended from their moving averages (large absolute distance_from_ma50_pct)\n3. Have reasonable volatility (not extremely high, as that suggests binary events or data issues)\n4. Show clear mean reversion potential\n\nLet me calculate a simple mean reversion score based on:\n- Magnitude of daily move (absolute change_1d_pct) - higher is better for mean reversion setup\n- Distance from MA50 (absolute distance_from_ma50_pct) - higher is better\n- Distance from MA200 (absolute distance_from_ma200_pct) - higher is better\n- Volatility adjustment - penalize extremely high volatility\n\nI'll create a scoring system:\n- Score = (abs(change_1d_pct) * 2) + (abs(distance_from_ma50_pct) * 1.5) + (abs(distance_from_ma200_pct) * 1) - (volatility_penalty)\n\nVolatility penalty:\n- >500%: -50 points\n- >300%: -30 points\n- >200%: -20 points\n- >150%: -10 points\n\nLet me evaluate top candidates:\n\n**Potential Longs (oversold):**\n1. **PAGE_CFD.UK**: -36.80% daily, -31.73% from MA50, -40.61% from MA200, vol 193.2%\n   Score: (36.8*2) + (31.73*1.5) + (40.61*1) - 10 = 73.6 + 47.6 + 40.6 - 10 = 151.8\n\n2. **CBG_CFD.UK**: -26.63% daily, -22.13% from MA50, -13.37% from MA200, vol 169.1%\n   Score: (26.63*2) + (22.13*1.5) + (13.37*1) - 10 = 53.3 + 33.2 + 13.4 - 10 = 89.9\n\n3. **FUTR_CFD.UK**: -21.24% daily, -23.78% from MA50, -37.81% from MA200, vol 154.3%\n   Score: (21.24*2) + (23.78*1.5) + (37.81*1) - 10 = 42.5 + 35.7 + 37.8 - 10 = 106.0\n\n4. **OCDO_CFD.UK**: -21.15% daily, -5.48% from MA50, -15.82% from MA200, vol 241.3%\n   Score: (21.15*2) + (5.48*1.5) + (15.82*1) - 20 = 42.3 + 8.2 + 15.8 - 20 = 46.3\n\n5. **HIK_CFD.UK**: -19.56% daily, -15.71% from MA50, -28.88% from MA200, vol 155.6%\n   Score: (19.56*2) + (15.71*1.5) + (28.88*1) - 10 = 39.1 + 23.6 + 28.9 - 10 = 81.6\n\n6. **PSN_CFD.UK**: -18.18% daily, -17.60% from MA50, -10.44% from MA200, vol 125.4%\n   Score: (18.18*2) + (17.60*1.5) + (10.44*1) - 0 = 36.4 + 26.4 + 10.4 = 73.2\n\n7. **KGF_CFD.UK**: -16.59% daily, -8.10% from MA50, +1.77% from MA200, vol 106.8%\n   Score: (16.59*2) + (8.10*1.5) + (1.77*1) - 0 = 33.2 + 12.2 + 1.8 = 47.2\n\n8. **OSB_CFD.UK**: -16.24% daily, -10.97% from MA50, -1.84% from MA200, vol 90.3%\n   Score: (16.24*2) + (10.97*1.5) + (1.84*1) - 0 = 32.5 + 16.5 + 1.8 = 50.8\n\n**Potential Shorts (overbought):**\n1. **CRST_CFD.UK**: +24.85% daily, +17.83% from MA50, +1.27% from MA200, vol 158.5%\n   Score: (24.85*2) + (17.83*1.5) + (1.27*1) - 10 = 49.7 + 26.7 + 1.3 - 10 = 67.7\n\n2. **BOY_CFD.UK**: +24.16% daily, +18.64% from MA50, +28.65% from MA200, vol 103.5%\n   Score: (24.16*2) + (18.64*1.5) + (28.65*1) - 0 = 48.3 + 27.9 + 28.7 = 104.9\n\n3. **RSW_CFD.UK**: +18.16% daily, +14.33% from MA50, +36.78% from MA200, vol 92.6%\n   Score: (18.16*2) + (14.33*1.5) + (36.78*1) - 0 = 36.3 + 21.5 + 36.8 = 94.6\n\n4. **TRST_CFD.UK**: +44.08% daily, +7.97% from MA50, -9.57% from MA200, vol 306.1%\n   Score: (44.08*2) + (7.97*1.5) + (9.57*1) - 30 = 88.2 + 11.9 + 9.6 - 30 = 79.7\n\n5. **HMSO_CFD.UK**: +14.13% daily, +10.01% from MA50, +22.52% from MA200, vol 87.5%\n   Score: (14.13*2) + (10.01*1.5) + (22.52*1) - 0 = 28.3 + 15.0 + 22.5 = 65.8\n\n6. **SPX_CFD.UK**: +10.91% daily, +8.46% from MA50, +15.91% from MA200, vol 84.7%\n   Score: (10.91*2) + (8.46*1.5) + (15.91*1) - 0 = 21.8 + 12.7 + 15.9 = 50.4\n\n7. **DLN_CFD.UK**: +10.40% daily, +12.15% from MA50, +5.07% from MA200, vol 115.4%\n   Score: (10.40*2) + (12.15*1.5) + (5.07*1) - 0 = 20.8 + 18.2 + 5.1 = 44.1\n\n8. **EMG_CFD.UK**: +2.35% daily, +15.52% from MA50, +42.19% from MA200, vol 86.9%\n   Score: (2.35*2) + (15.52*1.5) + (42.19*1) - 0 = 4.7 + 23.3 + 42.2 = 70.2\n\nNow I need to select exactly 5 candidates. I should aim for a mix of longs and shorts if possible, but the strategy doesn't explicitly require that. The key is selecting the best mean reversion setups.\n\nTop scoring candidates:\n1. PAGE_CFD.UK: 151.8 (long)\n2. FUTR_CFD.UK: 106.0 (long)\n3. BOY_CFD.UK: 104.9 (short)\n4. RSW_CFD.UK: 94.6 (short)\n5. CBG_CFD.UK: 89.9 (long)\n6. HIK_CFD.UK: 81.6 (long)\n7. TR",
          "reasoning_details": [
            {
              "text": " The user wants me to act as an \"Arena strategy executor\" for a mean-reversion strategy. I must:\n1. Follow the strategy rules strictly\n2. Output ONLY valid JSON\n3. NOT invent any data (prices, fundamentals, earnings, sentiment)\n4. Treat null/empty fields as unknown\n5. Be a \"constrained selector\" (no narrative)\n6. Select exactly 5 candidates from the EU universe provided\n7. Avoid earnings within 5 days (unknown in data, so this constraint is moot)\n8. Avoid binary/event-driven moves (unknown in data, so moot)\n9. Avoid sector concentration (max 1 per sector unless justified - but sectors are all empty strings, so this is also moot)\n10. The strategy is \"Two-Stage LLM Mean-Reversion (Arena v1)\" targeting short-term mean reversion in liquid equities over 2-10 trading days\n\nKey indicators I have for each stock:\n- symbol\n- name\n- sector (all empty)\n- last_price\n- change_1d_pct (daily change)\n- distance_from_ma200_pct (distance from 200-day moving average)\n- distance_from_ma50_pct (distance from 50-day moving average)\n- volatility_20d_pct (20-day volatility)\n- market_cap_usd (all null)\n- avg_daily_volume_usd (all null)\n- days_to_next_earnings (all null)\n- earnings_confirmed (all null)\n- news_sentiment_score (all null)\n- news_headlines_last_3 (all empty arrays)\n- data_quality_note\n\nFor mean reversion, I should look for:\n- Stocks that have moved significantly in one direction (large positive or negative change_1d_pct)\n- Stocks that are extended far from their moving averages (high absolute distance_from_ma50_pct or distance_from_ma200_pct)\n- Reasonable volatility (not too low, not excessively high)\n- Liquid stocks (but volume data is missing, so I have to infer from price levels and general characteristics)\n\nSince sectors are all empty, I cannot enforce sector diversification. Since earnings data is null, I cannot enforce the earnings avoidance rule. I must work with what I have.\n\nLet me analyze the candidates:\n\n**Large positive movers (potential short candidates for mean reversion):**\n1. **CRST_CFD.UK**: +24.85%, +17.83% from MA50, +1.27% from MA200, vol 158%\n2. **BOY_CFD.UK**: +24.16%, +18.64% from MA50, +28.65% from MA200, vol 103%\n3. **RSW_CFD.UK**: +18.16%, +14.33% from MA50, +36.78% from MA200, vol 92.6%\n4. **LMP_CFD.UK**: +11.57%, +10.77% from MA50, +12.51% from MA200, vol 54.9%\n5. **SPX_CFD.UK**: +10.91%, +8.46% from MA50, +15.91% from MA200, vol 84.7%\n6. **DLN_CFD.UK**: +10.40%, +12.15% from MA50, +5.07% from MA200, vol 115.4%\n7. **EMG_CFD.UK**: +2.35%, +15.52% from MA50, +42.19% from MA200, vol 86.9%\n8. **ATG_CFD.UK**: +12.01%, +5.84% from MA50, -24.99% from MA200, vol 172.5%\n9. **HMSO_CFD.UK**: +14.13%, +10.01% from MA50, +22.52% from MA200, vol 87.5%\n\n**Large negative movers (potential long candidates for mean reversion):**\n1. **PAGE_CFD.UK**: -36.80%, -31.73% from MA50, -40.61% from MA200, vol 193.2%\n2. **CBG_CFD.UK**: -26.63%, -22.13% from MA50, -13.37% from MA200, vol 169.1%\n3. **FUTR_CFD.UK**: -21.24%, -23.78% from MA50, -37.81% from MA200, vol 154.3%\n4. **OCDO_CFD.UK**: -21.15%, -5.48% from MA50, -15.82% from MA200, vol 241.3%\n5. **PSN_CFD.UK**: -18.18%, -17.60% from MA50, -10.44% from MA200, vol 125.4%\n6. **KGF_CFD.UK**: -16.59%, -8.10% from MA50, +1.77% from MA200, vol 106.8%\n7. **OSB_CFD.UK**: -16.24%, -10.97% from MA50, -1.84% from MA200, vol 90.3%\n8. **HIK_CFD.UK**: -19.56%, -15.71% from MA50, -28.88% from MA200, vol 155.6%\n9. **STJ_CFD.UK**: -14.84%, -6.67% from MA50, +4.63% from MA200, vol 125.9%\n10. **PZC_CFD.UK**: -13.86%, +2.59% from MA50, +2.98% from MA200, vol 92.7%\n11. **MCG_CFD.UK**: -4.25%, +0.94% from MA50, -13.63% from MA200, vol 236.1%\n12. **RHIM_CFD.UK**: -6.76%, +0.94% from MA50, -2.36% from MA200, vol 151.3%\n13. **UTG_CFD.UK**: -8.27%, -13.55% from MA50, -32.13% from MA200, vol 98.9%\n14. **ROR_CFD.UK**: -7.82%, -7.47% from MA50, -3.44% from MA200, vol 114.5%\n15. **LIO_CFD.UK**: -4.63%, -0.39% from MA50, -20.98% from MA200, vol 5544% (extremely high!)\n16. **ABDN_CFD.UK**: -7.74%, -2.33% from MA50, +6.46% from MA200, vol 82.6%\n17. **DOM_CFD.UK**: -0.31%, +1.08% from MA50, -15.07% from MA200, vol 87.9%\n18. **PAG_CFD.UK**: -3.40%, +0.70% from MA50, -1.34% from MA200, vol 71.5%\n19. **SAFE_CFD.UK**: +0.14%, -2.54% from MA50, +7.08% from MA200, vol 108%\n20. **SHC_CFD.UK**: -2.90%, -0.77% from MA50, +0.27% from MA200, vol 63.8%\n21. **WKP_CFD.UK**: +3.68%, +5.81% from MA50, +1.86% from MA200, vol 70.2%\n22. **BBY_CFD.UK**: -1.10%, -1.63% from MA50, null for MA200, vol 2239% (extremely high!)\n23. **CPG_CFD.UK**: -0.82%, +2.80% from MA50, null for MA200, vol 2808% (extremely high!)\n24. **TRST_CFD.UK**: +44.08%, +7.97% from MA50, -9.57% from MA200, vol 306% (very high!)\n25. **GROW_CFD.UK**: +1.57%, -4.28% from MA50, +22.57% from MA200, vol 115.7%\n26. **GRG_CFD.UK**: -2.92%, -6.26% from MA50, -8.94% from MA200, vol 114.3%\n27. **SRP_CFD.UK**: -0.40%, +6.89% from MA50, +34.11% from MA200, vol 77.9%\n28. **BYIT_CFD.UK**: +1.93%, -3.04% from MA50, null for MA200, vol 3611% (extremely high!)\n29. **SGRO_CFD.UK**: -2.05%, +0.64% from MA50, +8.12% from MA200, vol 82.6%\n\n**Extreme volatility stocks to potentially avoid:**\n- LIO_CFD.UK: 5544% volatility (crazy high)\n- BBY_CFD.UK: 2239% volatility (crazy high)\n- CPG_CFD.UK: 2808% volatility (crazy high)\n- BYIT_CFD.UK: 3611% volatility (crazy high)\n- TRST_CFD.UK: 306% volatility (very high)\n\nFor mean reversion, I want stocks that have:\n1. Made a significant move today (large absolute change_1d_pct)\n2. Are extended from their moving averages (large absolute distance_from_ma50_pct)\n3. Have reasonable volatility (not extremely high, as that suggests binary events or data issues)\n4. Show clear mean reversion potential\n\nLet me calculate a simple mean reversion score based on:\n- Magnitude of daily move (absolute change_1d_pct) - higher is better for mean reversion setup\n- Distance from MA50 (absolute distance_from_ma50_pct) - higher is better\n- Distance from MA200 (absolute distance_from_ma200_pct) - higher is better\n- Volatility adjustment - penalize extremely high volatility\n\nI'll create a scoring system:\n- Score = (abs(change_1d_pct) * 2) + (abs(distance_from_ma50_pct) * 1.5) + (abs(distance_from_ma200_pct) * 1) - (volatility_penalty)\n\nVolatility penalty:\n- >500%: -50 points\n- >300%: -30 points\n- >200%: -20 points\n- >150%: -10 points\n\nLet me evaluate top candidates:\n\n**Potential Longs (oversold):**\n1. **PAGE_CFD.UK**: -36.80% daily, -31.73% from MA50, -40.61% from MA200, vol 193.2%\n   Score: (36.8*2) + (31.73*1.5) + (40.61*1) - 10 = 73.6 + 47.6 + 40.6 - 10 = 151.8\n\n2. **CBG_CFD.UK**: -26.63% daily, -22.13% from MA50, -13.37% from MA200, vol 169.1%\n   Score: (26.63*2) + (22.13*1.5) + (13.37*1) - 10 = 53.3 + 33.2 + 13.4 - 10 = 89.9\n\n3. **FUTR_CFD.UK**: -21.24% daily, -23.78% from MA50, -37.81% from MA200, vol 154.3%\n   Score: (21.24*2) + (23.78*1.5) + (37.81*1) - 10 = 42.5 + 35.7 + 37.8 - 10 = 106.0\n\n4. **OCDO_CFD.UK**: -21.15% daily, -5.48% from MA50, -15.82% from MA200, vol 241.3%\n   Score: (21.15*2) + (5.48*1.5) + (15.82*1) - 20 = 42.3 + 8.2 + 15.8 - 20 = 46.3\n\n5. **HIK_CFD.UK**: -19.56% daily, -15.71% from MA50, -28.88% from MA200, vol 155.6%\n   Score: (19.56*2) + (15.71*1.5) + (28.88*1) - 10 = 39.1 + 23.6 + 28.9 - 10 = 81.6\n\n6. **PSN_CFD.UK**: -18.18% daily, -17.60% from MA50, -10.44% from MA200, vol 125.4%\n   Score: (18.18*2) + (17.60*1.5) + (10.44*1) - 0 = 36.4 + 26.4 + 10.4 = 73.2\n\n7. **KGF_CFD.UK**: -16.59% daily, -8.10% from MA50, +1.77% from MA200, vol 106.8%\n   Score: (16.59*2) + (8.10*1.5) + (1.77*1) - 0 = 33.2 + 12.2 + 1.8 = 47.2\n\n8. **OSB_CFD.UK**: -16.24% daily, -10.97% from MA50, -1.84% from MA200, vol 90.3%\n   Score: (16.24*2) + (10.97*1.5) + (1.84*1) - 0 = 32.5 + 16.5 + 1.8 = 50.8\n\n**Potential Shorts (overbought):**\n1. **CRST_CFD.UK**: +24.85% daily, +17.83% from MA50, +1.27% from MA200, vol 158.5%\n   Score: (24.85*2) + (17.83*1.5) + (1.27*1) - 10 = 49.7 + 26.7 + 1.3 - 10 = 67.7\n\n2. **BOY_CFD.UK**: +24.16% daily, +18.64% from MA50, +28.65% from MA200, vol 103.5%\n   Score: (24.16*2) + (18.64*1.5) + (28.65*1) - 0 = 48.3 + 27.9 + 28.7 = 104.9\n\n3. **RSW_CFD.UK**: +18.16% daily, +14.33% from MA50, +36.78% from MA200, vol 92.6%\n   Score: (18.16*2) + (14.33*1.5) + (36.78*1) - 0 = 36.3 + 21.5 + 36.8 = 94.6\n\n4. **TRST_CFD.UK**: +44.08% daily, +7.97% from MA50, -9.57% from MA200, vol 306.1%\n   Score: (44.08*2) + (7.97*1.5) + (9.57*1) - 30 = 88.2 + 11.9 + 9.6 - 30 = 79.7\n\n5. **HMSO_CFD.UK**: +14.13% daily, +10.01% from MA50, +22.52% from MA200, vol 87.5%\n   Score: (14.13*2) + (10.01*1.5) + (22.52*1) - 0 = 28.3 + 15.0 + 22.5 = 65.8\n\n6. **SPX_CFD.UK**: +10.91% daily, +8.46% from MA50, +15.91% from MA200, vol 84.7%\n   Score: (10.91*2) + (8.46*1.5) + (15.91*1) - 0 = 21.8 + 12.7 + 15.9 = 50.4\n\n7. **DLN_CFD.UK**: +10.40% daily, +12.15% from MA50, +5.07% from MA200, vol 115.4%\n   Score: (10.40*2) + (12.15*1.5) + (5.07*1) - 0 = 20.8 + 18.2 + 5.1 = 44.1\n\n8. **EMG_CFD.UK**: +2.35% daily, +15.52% from MA50, +42.19% from MA200, vol 86.9%\n   Score: (2.35*2) + (15.52*1.5) + (42.19*1) - 0 = 4.7 + 23.3 + 42.2 = 70.2\n\nNow I need to select exactly 5 candidates. I should aim for a mix of longs and shorts if possible, but the strategy doesn't explicitly require that. The key is selecting the best mean reversion setups.\n\nTop scoring candidates:\n1. PAGE_CFD.UK: 151.8 (long)\n2. FUTR_CFD.UK: 106.0 (long)\n3. BOY_CFD.UK: 104.9 (short)\n4. RSW_CFD.UK: 94.6 (short)\n5. CBG_CFD.UK: 89.9 (long)\n6. HIK_CFD.UK: 81.6 (long)\n7. TR",
              "type": "reasoning.text",
              "index": 0,
              "format": "unknown"
            }
          ]
        },
        "logprobs": null,
        "finish_reason": "length",
        "native_finish_reason": "length"
      }
    ],
    "created": 1774874297,
    "provider": "DeepInfra",
    "system_fingerprint": null
  }
}
#1837openroutermoonshotai/kimi-k2-thinking2026-03-30T12:38:56.276308+00:00
System prompt
You are an Arena portfolio manager. You must follow the strategy rules strictly and output ONLY valid JSON. You are NOT allowed to invent prices/fundamentals/news/earnings. If a field is null/empty, treat it as unknown. Avoid overtrading: if changes are marginal, prefer HOLD. Do not churn.
User prompt
{"task": "stage2_portfolio_management", "region": "EU", "strategy": {"key": "meanrev-v1", "name": "Two-Stage LLM Mean-Reversion (Arena v1)", "rules": {"max_positions": 10, "max_buys_per_run": 2, "avoid_overtrading": true, "max_sells_per_run": 2, "max_gross_leverage": 3.0, "fixed_position_size": 3000.0, "universe_symbols_eu": [], "universe_symbols_us": []}}, "portfolio_constraints": {"initial_equity": 10000.0, "max_positions": 10, "fixed_position_size": 3000.0, "max_gross_leverage": 3.0, "overtrading_rules": ["Max 2 SELL actions per run unless risk event forces more", "Max 2 BUY actions per run", "If no clear improvement vs current holdings, output HOLD for everything"]}, "current_portfolio": [{"symbol": "AML_CFD.UK", "qty": 0.0, "avg_price": 41.98, "last_price": 38.22, "unrealized_pnl": 0.0, "opened_at": "2026-03-09T10:19:46.508085+00:00"}, {"symbol": "AUTO_CFD.UK", "qty": 6.2137531068765535, "avg_price": 482.8, "last_price": 482.8, "unrealized_pnl": 0.0, "opened_at": "2026-03-19T18:04:14.272849+00:00"}, {"symbol": "BTRW_CFD.UK", "qty": 0.0, "avg_price": 250.8, "last_price": 263.2, "unrealized_pnl": 0.0, "opened_at": "2026-03-23T18:04:09.108429+00:00"}, {"symbol": "BYIT_CFD.UK", "qty": 10.252904989747094, "avg_price": 292.6, "last_price": 292.6, "unrealized_pnl": 0.0, "opened_at": "2026-03-01T10:30:13.622938+00:00"}, {"symbol": "CBG_CFD.UK", "qty": 8.748396127376648, "avg_price": 342.92, "last_price": 342.92, "unrealized_pnl": 0.0, "opened_at": "2026-03-18T17:58:33.497657+00:00"}, {"symbol": "CRST_CFD.UK", "qty": 0.0, "avg_price": 118.83, "last_price": 118.83, "unrealized_pnl": 0.0, "opened_at": "2026-03-23T10:03:51.599067+00:00"}, {"symbol": "FUTR_CFD.UK", "qty": 0.0, "avg_price": 414.2, "last_price": 419.8, "unrealized_pnl": 0.0, "opened_at": "2026-03-12T10:21:39.078796+00:00"}, {"symbol": "ICG_CFD.UK", "qty": 0.0, "avg_price": 1700.0, "last_price": 1693.0, "unrealized_pnl": 0.0, "opened_at": "2026-02-16T09:30:55.514112+00:00"}, {"symbol": "IWG_CFD.UK", "qty": 0.0, "avg_price": 177.0, "last_price": 172.2, "unrealized_pnl": 0.0, "opened_at": "2026-03-19T18:04:14.272849+00:00"}, {"symbol": "LRE_CFD.UK", "qty": 5.208333333333333, "avg_price": 576.0, "last_price": 576.0, "unrealized_pnl": 0.0, "opened_at": "2026-03-20T10:26:40.341409+00:00"}, {"symbol": "LSS_CFD.FR", "qty": 0.0, "avg_price": 17.72, "last_price": 16.0, "unrealized_pnl": -291.19638826185087, "opened_at": "2026-02-16T09:30:55.514112+00:00"}, {"symbol": "MSLH_CFD.UK", "qty": 21.30681818181818, "avg_price": 140.8, "last_price": 140.8, "unrealized_pnl": 0.0, "opened_at": "2026-03-26T17:55:26.602359+00:00"}, {"symbol": "OCDO_CFD.UK", "qty": 14.684287812041115, "avg_price": 204.3, "last_price": 204.3, "unrealized_pnl": 0.0, "opened_at": "2026-03-12T18:01:52.554929+00:00"}, {"symbol": "PAGE_CFD.UK", "qty": 22.57336343115124, "avg_price": 132.9, "last_price": 132.9, "unrealized_pnl": 0.0, "opened_at": "2026-02-28T10:51:05.818250+00:00"}, {"symbol": "PSN_CFD.UK", "qty": 2.6455026455026456, "avg_price": 1134.0, "last_price": 1089.0, "unrealized_pnl": -119.04761904761905, "opened_at": "2026-03-12T18:01:52.554929+00:00"}, {"symbol": "SYNT_CFD.UK", "qty": 0.0, "avg_price": 27.2, "last_price": 25.25, "unrealized_pnl": 0.0, "opened_at": "2026-03-23T10:03:51.599067+00:00"}, {"symbol": "TRST_CFD.UK", "qty": 0.0, "avg_price": 151.8, "last_price": 173.4, "unrealized_pnl": 0.0, "opened_at": "2026-03-14T10:03:26.036362+00:00"}, {"symbol": "UTG_CFD.UK", "qty": 5.9405940594059405, "avg_price": 505.0, "last_price": 461.2, "unrealized_pnl": -260.19801980198025, "opened_at": "2026-03-26T17:55:26.602359+00:00"}, {"symbol": "VTY_CFD.UK", "qty": 8.85608856088561, "avg_price": 338.75, "last_price": 338.75, "unrealized_pnl": 0.0, "opened_at": "2026-03-12T10:21:39.078796+00:00"}, {"symbol": "WIZZ_CFD.UK", "qty": 0.0, "avg_price": 872.0, "last_price": 976.5, "unrealized_pnl": 0.0, "opened_at": "2026-03-09T10:19:46.508085+00:00"}, {"symbol": "WPP_CFD.UK", "qty": 0.0, "avg_price": 253.97436099095557, "last_price": 262.8, "unrealized_pnl": 0.0, "opened_at": "2026-02-28T10:51:05.818250+00:00"}], "candidates": [], "output_schema": {"actions": {"sell": [{"symbol": "string", "reason": "string"}], "hold": [{"symbol": "string", "reason": "string"}], "buy": [{"symbol": "string", "position_size": "number (currency amount)", "reason": "string"}]}, "portfolio_rationale": "string"}}
Output JSON
{
  "actions": {
    "buy": [
      {
        "reason": "Strong mean-reversion signal: -8.96% from avg_price (38.22 vs 41.98)",
        "symbol": "AML_CFD.UK",
        "position_size": 3000
      },
      {
        "reason": "Strong mean-reversion signal: -7.17% from avg_price (25.25 vs 27.2)",
        "symbol": "SYNT_CFD.UK",
        "position_size": 3000
      }
    ],
    "hold": [
      {
        "reason": "Flat position, no clear mean-reversion signal",
        "symbol": "AUTO_CFD.UK"
      },
      {
        "reason": "Flat position, no clear mean-reversion signal",
        "symbol": "CBG_CFD.UK"
      },
      {
        "reason": "Flat position, no clear mean-reversion signal",
        "symbol": "LRE_CFD.UK"
      },
      {
        "reason": "Flat position, no clear mean-reversion signal",
        "symbol": "MSLH_CFD.UK"
      },
      {
        "reason": "Flat position, no clear mean-reversion signal",
        "symbol": "OCDO_CFD.UK"
      },
      {
        "reason": "Down -3.97%, holding for mean-reversion bounce",
        "symbol": "PSN_CFD.UK"
      },
      {
        "reason": "Down -8.67%, strong mean-reversion signal, already positioned",
        "symbol": "UTG_CFD.UK"
      },
      {
        "reason": "Flat position, no clear mean-reversion signal",
        "symbol": "VTY_CFD.UK"
      }
    ],
    "sell": [
      {
        "reason": "Flat position (0% change) held since 2026-02-28, freeing slot for better mean-reversion opportunity",
        "symbol": "PAGE_CFD.UK"
      },
      {
        "reason": "Flat position (0% change) held since 2026-03-01, freeing slot for better mean-reversion opportunity",
        "symbol": "BYIT_CFD.UK"
      }
    ]
  },
  "portfolio_rationale": "Rebalancing to capitalize on stronger mean-reversion signals: selling two oldest flat positions (PAGE, BYIT) to free slots for oversold opportunities (AML -8.96%, SYNT -7.17%). Maintaining PSN and UTG which are already showing losses and positioned for reversion. Portfolio remains at max 10 positions and 3.0x gross leverage."
}
Selection logs
#901stage12026-03-30T12:38:56.273330+00:00
{
  "raw": {
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    "model": "moonshotai/kimi-k2-thinking-20251106",
    "usage": {
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      "total_tokens": 12507,
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    "object": "chat.completion",
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        "message": {
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          "reasoning": " The user wants me to act as an \"Arena strategy executor\" for a mean-reversion strategy. I must:\n1. Follow the strategy rules strictly\n2. Output ONLY valid JSON\n3. NOT invent any data (prices, fundamentals, earnings, sentiment)\n4. Treat null/empty fields as unknown\n5. Be a \"constrained selector\" (no narrative)\n6. Select exactly 5 candidates from the EU universe provided\n7. Avoid earnings within 5 days (unknown in data, so this constraint is moot)\n8. Avoid binary/event-driven moves (unknown in data, so moot)\n9. Avoid sector concentration (max 1 per sector unless justified - but sectors are all empty strings, so this is also moot)\n10. The strategy is \"Two-Stage LLM Mean-Reversion (Arena v1)\" targeting short-term mean reversion in liquid equities over 2-10 trading days\n\nKey indicators I have for each stock:\n- symbol\n- name\n- sector (all empty)\n- last_price\n- change_1d_pct (daily change)\n- distance_from_ma200_pct (distance from 200-day moving average)\n- distance_from_ma50_pct (distance from 50-day moving average)\n- volatility_20d_pct (20-day volatility)\n- market_cap_usd (all null)\n- avg_daily_volume_usd (all null)\n- days_to_next_earnings (all null)\n- earnings_confirmed (all null)\n- news_sentiment_score (all null)\n- news_headlines_last_3 (all empty arrays)\n- data_quality_note\n\nFor mean reversion, I should look for:\n- Stocks that have moved significantly in one direction (large positive or negative change_1d_pct)\n- Stocks that are extended far from their moving averages (high absolute distance_from_ma50_pct or distance_from_ma200_pct)\n- Reasonable volatility (not too low, not excessively high)\n- Liquid stocks (but volume data is missing, so I have to infer from price levels and general characteristics)\n\nSince sectors are all empty, I cannot enforce sector diversification. Since earnings data is null, I cannot enforce the earnings avoidance rule. I must work with what I have.\n\nLet me analyze the candidates:\n\n**Large positive movers (potential short candidates for mean reversion):**\n1. **CRST_CFD.UK**: +24.85%, +17.83% from MA50, +1.27% from MA200, vol 158%\n2. **BOY_CFD.UK**: +24.16%, +18.64% from MA50, +28.65% from MA200, vol 103%\n3. **RSW_CFD.UK**: +18.16%, +14.33% from MA50, +36.78% from MA200, vol 92.6%\n4. **LMP_CFD.UK**: +11.57%, +10.77% from MA50, +12.51% from MA200, vol 54.9%\n5. **SPX_CFD.UK**: +10.91%, +8.46% from MA50, +15.91% from MA200, vol 84.7%\n6. **DLN_CFD.UK**: +10.40%, +12.15% from MA50, +5.07% from MA200, vol 115.4%\n7. **EMG_CFD.UK**: +2.35%, +15.52% from MA50, +42.19% from MA200, vol 86.9%\n8. **ATG_CFD.UK**: +12.01%, +5.84% from MA50, -24.99% from MA200, vol 172.5%\n9. **HMSO_CFD.UK**: +14.13%, +10.01% from MA50, +22.52% from MA200, vol 87.5%\n\n**Large negative movers (potential long candidates for mean reversion):**\n1. **PAGE_CFD.UK**: -36.80%, -31.73% from MA50, -40.61% from MA200, vol 193.2%\n2. **CBG_CFD.UK**: -26.63%, -22.13% from MA50, -13.37% from MA200, vol 169.1%\n3. **FUTR_CFD.UK**: -21.24%, -23.78% from MA50, -37.81% from MA200, vol 154.3%\n4. **OCDO_CFD.UK**: -21.15%, -5.48% from MA50, -15.82% from MA200, vol 241.3%\n5. **PSN_CFD.UK**: -18.18%, -17.60% from MA50, -10.44% from MA200, vol 125.4%\n6. **KGF_CFD.UK**: -16.59%, -8.10% from MA50, +1.77% from MA200, vol 106.8%\n7. **OSB_CFD.UK**: -16.24%, -10.97% from MA50, -1.84% from MA200, vol 90.3%\n8. **HIK_CFD.UK**: -19.56%, -15.71% from MA50, -28.88% from MA200, vol 155.6%\n9. **STJ_CFD.UK**: -14.84%, -6.67% from MA50, +4.63% from MA200, vol 125.9%\n10. **PZC_CFD.UK**: -13.86%, +2.59% from MA50, +2.98% from MA200, vol 92.7%\n11. **MCG_CFD.UK**: -4.25%, +0.94% from MA50, -13.63% from MA200, vol 236.1%\n12. **RHIM_CFD.UK**: -6.76%, +0.94% from MA50, -2.36% from MA200, vol 151.3%\n13. **UTG_CFD.UK**: -8.27%, -13.55% from MA50, -32.13% from MA200, vol 98.9%\n14. **ROR_CFD.UK**: -7.82%, -7.47% from MA50, -3.44% from MA200, vol 114.5%\n15. **LIO_CFD.UK**: -4.63%, -0.39% from MA50, -20.98% from MA200, vol 5544% (extremely high!)\n16. **ABDN_CFD.UK**: -7.74%, -2.33% from MA50, +6.46% from MA200, vol 82.6%\n17. **DOM_CFD.UK**: -0.31%, +1.08% from MA50, -15.07% from MA200, vol 87.9%\n18. **PAG_CFD.UK**: -3.40%, +0.70% from MA50, -1.34% from MA200, vol 71.5%\n19. **SAFE_CFD.UK**: +0.14%, -2.54% from MA50, +7.08% from MA200, vol 108%\n20. **SHC_CFD.UK**: -2.90%, -0.77% from MA50, +0.27% from MA200, vol 63.8%\n21. **WKP_CFD.UK**: +3.68%, +5.81% from MA50, +1.86% from MA200, vol 70.2%\n22. **BBY_CFD.UK**: -1.10%, -1.63% from MA50, null for MA200, vol 2239% (extremely high!)\n23. **CPG_CFD.UK**: -0.82%, +2.80% from MA50, null for MA200, vol 2808% (extremely high!)\n24. **TRST_CFD.UK**: +44.08%, +7.97% from MA50, -9.57% from MA200, vol 306% (very high!)\n25. **GROW_CFD.UK**: +1.57%, -4.28% from MA50, +22.57% from MA200, vol 115.7%\n26. **GRG_CFD.UK**: -2.92%, -6.26% from MA50, -8.94% from MA200, vol 114.3%\n27. **SRP_CFD.UK**: -0.40%, +6.89% from MA50, +34.11% from MA200, vol 77.9%\n28. **BYIT_CFD.UK**: +1.93%, -3.04% from MA50, null for MA200, vol 3611% (extremely high!)\n29. **SGRO_CFD.UK**: -2.05%, +0.64% from MA50, +8.12% from MA200, vol 82.6%\n\n**Extreme volatility stocks to potentially avoid:**\n- LIO_CFD.UK: 5544% volatility (crazy high)\n- BBY_CFD.UK: 2239% volatility (crazy high)\n- CPG_CFD.UK: 2808% volatility (crazy high)\n- BYIT_CFD.UK: 3611% volatility (crazy high)\n- TRST_CFD.UK: 306% volatility (very high)\n\nFor mean reversion, I want stocks that have:\n1. Made a significant move today (large absolute change_1d_pct)\n2. Are extended from their moving averages (large absolute distance_from_ma50_pct)\n3. Have reasonable volatility (not extremely high, as that suggests binary events or data issues)\n4. Show clear mean reversion potential\n\nLet me calculate a simple mean reversion score based on:\n- Magnitude of daily move (absolute change_1d_pct) - higher is better for mean reversion setup\n- Distance from MA50 (absolute distance_from_ma50_pct) - higher is better\n- Distance from MA200 (absolute distance_from_ma200_pct) - higher is better\n- Volatility adjustment - penalize extremely high volatility\n\nI'll create a scoring system:\n- Score = (abs(change_1d_pct) * 2) + (abs(distance_from_ma50_pct) * 1.5) + (abs(distance_from_ma200_pct) * 1) - (volatility_penalty)\n\nVolatility penalty:\n- >500%: -50 points\n- >300%: -30 points\n- >200%: -20 points\n- >150%: -10 points\n\nLet me evaluate top candidates:\n\n**Potential Longs (oversold):**\n1. **PAGE_CFD.UK**: -36.80% daily, -31.73% from MA50, -40.61% from MA200, vol 193.2%\n   Score: (36.8*2) + (31.73*1.5) + (40.61*1) - 10 = 73.6 + 47.6 + 40.6 - 10 = 151.8\n\n2. **CBG_CFD.UK**: -26.63% daily, -22.13% from MA50, -13.37% from MA200, vol 169.1%\n   Score: (26.63*2) + (22.13*1.5) + (13.37*1) - 10 = 53.3 + 33.2 + 13.4 - 10 = 89.9\n\n3. **FUTR_CFD.UK**: -21.24% daily, -23.78% from MA50, -37.81% from MA200, vol 154.3%\n   Score: (21.24*2) + (23.78*1.5) + (37.81*1) - 10 = 42.5 + 35.7 + 37.8 - 10 = 106.0\n\n4. **OCDO_CFD.UK**: -21.15% daily, -5.48% from MA50, -15.82% from MA200, vol 241.3%\n   Score: (21.15*2) + (5.48*1.5) + (15.82*1) - 20 = 42.3 + 8.2 + 15.8 - 20 = 46.3\n\n5. **HIK_CFD.UK**: -19.56% daily, -15.71% from MA50, -28.88% from MA200, vol 155.6%\n   Score: (19.56*2) + (15.71*1.5) + (28.88*1) - 10 = 39.1 + 23.6 + 28.9 - 10 = 81.6\n\n6. **PSN_CFD.UK**: -18.18% daily, -17.60% from MA50, -10.44% from MA200, vol 125.4%\n   Score: (18.18*2) + (17.60*1.5) + (10.44*1) - 0 = 36.4 + 26.4 + 10.4 = 73.2\n\n7. **KGF_CFD.UK**: -16.59% daily, -8.10% from MA50, +1.77% from MA200, vol 106.8%\n   Score: (16.59*2) + (8.10*1.5) + (1.77*1) - 0 = 33.2 + 12.2 + 1.8 = 47.2\n\n8. **OSB_CFD.UK**: -16.24% daily, -10.97% from MA50, -1.84% from MA200, vol 90.3%\n   Score: (16.24*2) + (10.97*1.5) + (1.84*1) - 0 = 32.5 + 16.5 + 1.8 = 50.8\n\n**Potential Shorts (overbought):**\n1. **CRST_CFD.UK**: +24.85% daily, +17.83% from MA50, +1.27% from MA200, vol 158.5%\n   Score: (24.85*2) + (17.83*1.5) + (1.27*1) - 10 = 49.7 + 26.7 + 1.3 - 10 = 67.7\n\n2. **BOY_CFD.UK**: +24.16% daily, +18.64% from MA50, +28.65% from MA200, vol 103.5%\n   Score: (24.16*2) + (18.64*1.5) + (28.65*1) - 0 = 48.3 + 27.9 + 28.7 = 104.9\n\n3. **RSW_CFD.UK**: +18.16% daily, +14.33% from MA50, +36.78% from MA200, vol 92.6%\n   Score: (18.16*2) + (14.33*1.5) + (36.78*1) - 0 = 36.3 + 21.5 + 36.8 = 94.6\n\n4. **TRST_CFD.UK**: +44.08% daily, +7.97% from MA50, -9.57% from MA200, vol 306.1%\n   Score: (44.08*2) + (7.97*1.5) + (9.57*1) - 30 = 88.2 + 11.9 + 9.6 - 30 = 79.7\n\n5. **HMSO_CFD.UK**: +14.13% daily, +10.01% from MA50, +22.52% from MA200, vol 87.5%\n   Score: (14.13*2) + (10.01*1.5) + (22.52*1) - 0 = 28.3 + 15.0 + 22.5 = 65.8\n\n6. **SPX_CFD.UK**: +10.91% daily, +8.46% from MA50, +15.91% from MA200, vol 84.7%\n   Score: (10.91*2) + (8.46*1.5) + (15.91*1) - 0 = 21.8 + 12.7 + 15.9 = 50.4\n\n7. **DLN_CFD.UK**: +10.40% daily, +12.15% from MA50, +5.07% from MA200, vol 115.4%\n   Score: (10.40*2) + (12.15*1.5) + (5.07*1) - 0 = 20.8 + 18.2 + 5.1 = 44.1\n\n8. **EMG_CFD.UK**: +2.35% daily, +15.52% from MA50, +42.19% from MA200, vol 86.9%\n   Score: (2.35*2) + (15.52*1.5) + (42.19*1) - 0 = 4.7 + 23.3 + 42.2 = 70.2\n\nNow I need to select exactly 5 candidates. I should aim for a mix of longs and shorts if possible, but the strategy doesn't explicitly require that. The key is selecting the best mean reversion setups.\n\nTop scoring candidates:\n1. PAGE_CFD.UK: 151.8 (long)\n2. FUTR_CFD.UK: 106.0 (long)\n3. BOY_CFD.UK: 104.9 (short)\n4. RSW_CFD.UK: 94.6 (short)\n5. CBG_CFD.UK: 89.9 (long)\n6. HIK_CFD.UK: 81.6 (long)\n7. TR",
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              "text": " The user wants me to act as an \"Arena strategy executor\" for a mean-reversion strategy. I must:\n1. Follow the strategy rules strictly\n2. Output ONLY valid JSON\n3. NOT invent any data (prices, fundamentals, earnings, sentiment)\n4. Treat null/empty fields as unknown\n5. Be a \"constrained selector\" (no narrative)\n6. Select exactly 5 candidates from the EU universe provided\n7. Avoid earnings within 5 days (unknown in data, so this constraint is moot)\n8. Avoid binary/event-driven moves (unknown in data, so moot)\n9. Avoid sector concentration (max 1 per sector unless justified - but sectors are all empty strings, so this is also moot)\n10. The strategy is \"Two-Stage LLM Mean-Reversion (Arena v1)\" targeting short-term mean reversion in liquid equities over 2-10 trading days\n\nKey indicators I have for each stock:\n- symbol\n- name\n- sector (all empty)\n- last_price\n- change_1d_pct (daily change)\n- distance_from_ma200_pct (distance from 200-day moving average)\n- distance_from_ma50_pct (distance from 50-day moving average)\n- volatility_20d_pct (20-day volatility)\n- market_cap_usd (all null)\n- avg_daily_volume_usd (all null)\n- days_to_next_earnings (all null)\n- earnings_confirmed (all null)\n- news_sentiment_score (all null)\n- news_headlines_last_3 (all empty arrays)\n- data_quality_note\n\nFor mean reversion, I should look for:\n- Stocks that have moved significantly in one direction (large positive or negative change_1d_pct)\n- Stocks that are extended far from their moving averages (high absolute distance_from_ma50_pct or distance_from_ma200_pct)\n- Reasonable volatility (not too low, not excessively high)\n- Liquid stocks (but volume data is missing, so I have to infer from price levels and general characteristics)\n\nSince sectors are all empty, I cannot enforce sector diversification. Since earnings data is null, I cannot enforce the earnings avoidance rule. I must work with what I have.\n\nLet me analyze the candidates:\n\n**Large positive movers (potential short candidates for mean reversion):**\n1. **CRST_CFD.UK**: +24.85%, +17.83% from MA50, +1.27% from MA200, vol 158%\n2. **BOY_CFD.UK**: +24.16%, +18.64% from MA50, +28.65% from MA200, vol 103%\n3. **RSW_CFD.UK**: +18.16%, +14.33% from MA50, +36.78% from MA200, vol 92.6%\n4. **LMP_CFD.UK**: +11.57%, +10.77% from MA50, +12.51% from MA200, vol 54.9%\n5. **SPX_CFD.UK**: +10.91%, +8.46% from MA50, +15.91% from MA200, vol 84.7%\n6. **DLN_CFD.UK**: +10.40%, +12.15% from MA50, +5.07% from MA200, vol 115.4%\n7. **EMG_CFD.UK**: +2.35%, +15.52% from MA50, +42.19% from MA200, vol 86.9%\n8. **ATG_CFD.UK**: +12.01%, +5.84% from MA50, -24.99% from MA200, vol 172.5%\n9. **HMSO_CFD.UK**: +14.13%, +10.01% from MA50, +22.52% from MA200, vol 87.5%\n\n**Large negative movers (potential long candidates for mean reversion):**\n1. **PAGE_CFD.UK**: -36.80%, -31.73% from MA50, -40.61% from MA200, vol 193.2%\n2. **CBG_CFD.UK**: -26.63%, -22.13% from MA50, -13.37% from MA200, vol 169.1%\n3. **FUTR_CFD.UK**: -21.24%, -23.78% from MA50, -37.81% from MA200, vol 154.3%\n4. **OCDO_CFD.UK**: -21.15%, -5.48% from MA50, -15.82% from MA200, vol 241.3%\n5. **PSN_CFD.UK**: -18.18%, -17.60% from MA50, -10.44% from MA200, vol 125.4%\n6. **KGF_CFD.UK**: -16.59%, -8.10% from MA50, +1.77% from MA200, vol 106.8%\n7. **OSB_CFD.UK**: -16.24%, -10.97% from MA50, -1.84% from MA200, vol 90.3%\n8. **HIK_CFD.UK**: -19.56%, -15.71% from MA50, -28.88% from MA200, vol 155.6%\n9. **STJ_CFD.UK**: -14.84%, -6.67% from MA50, +4.63% from MA200, vol 125.9%\n10. **PZC_CFD.UK**: -13.86%, +2.59% from MA50, +2.98% from MA200, vol 92.7%\n11. **MCG_CFD.UK**: -4.25%, +0.94% from MA50, -13.63% from MA200, vol 236.1%\n12. **RHIM_CFD.UK**: -6.76%, +0.94% from MA50, -2.36% from MA200, vol 151.3%\n13. **UTG_CFD.UK**: -8.27%, -13.55% from MA50, -32.13% from MA200, vol 98.9%\n14. **ROR_CFD.UK**: -7.82%, -7.47% from MA50, -3.44% from MA200, vol 114.5%\n15. **LIO_CFD.UK**: -4.63%, -0.39% from MA50, -20.98% from MA200, vol 5544% (extremely high!)\n16. **ABDN_CFD.UK**: -7.74%, -2.33% from MA50, +6.46% from MA200, vol 82.6%\n17. **DOM_CFD.UK**: -0.31%, +1.08% from MA50, -15.07% from MA200, vol 87.9%\n18. **PAG_CFD.UK**: -3.40%, +0.70% from MA50, -1.34% from MA200, vol 71.5%\n19. **SAFE_CFD.UK**: +0.14%, -2.54% from MA50, +7.08% from MA200, vol 108%\n20. **SHC_CFD.UK**: -2.90%, -0.77% from MA50, +0.27% from MA200, vol 63.8%\n21. **WKP_CFD.UK**: +3.68%, +5.81% from MA50, +1.86% from MA200, vol 70.2%\n22. **BBY_CFD.UK**: -1.10%, -1.63% from MA50, null for MA200, vol 2239% (extremely high!)\n23. **CPG_CFD.UK**: -0.82%, +2.80% from MA50, null for MA200, vol 2808% (extremely high!)\n24. **TRST_CFD.UK**: +44.08%, +7.97% from MA50, -9.57% from MA200, vol 306% (very high!)\n25. **GROW_CFD.UK**: +1.57%, -4.28% from MA50, +22.57% from MA200, vol 115.7%\n26. **GRG_CFD.UK**: -2.92%, -6.26% from MA50, -8.94% from MA200, vol 114.3%\n27. **SRP_CFD.UK**: -0.40%, +6.89% from MA50, +34.11% from MA200, vol 77.9%\n28. **BYIT_CFD.UK**: +1.93%, -3.04% from MA50, null for MA200, vol 3611% (extremely high!)\n29. **SGRO_CFD.UK**: -2.05%, +0.64% from MA50, +8.12% from MA200, vol 82.6%\n\n**Extreme volatility stocks to potentially avoid:**\n- LIO_CFD.UK: 5544% volatility (crazy high)\n- BBY_CFD.UK: 2239% volatility (crazy high)\n- CPG_CFD.UK: 2808% volatility (crazy high)\n- BYIT_CFD.UK: 3611% volatility (crazy high)\n- TRST_CFD.UK: 306% volatility (very high)\n\nFor mean reversion, I want stocks that have:\n1. Made a significant move today (large absolute change_1d_pct)\n2. Are extended from their moving averages (large absolute distance_from_ma50_pct)\n3. Have reasonable volatility (not extremely high, as that suggests binary events or data issues)\n4. Show clear mean reversion potential\n\nLet me calculate a simple mean reversion score based on:\n- Magnitude of daily move (absolute change_1d_pct) - higher is better for mean reversion setup\n- Distance from MA50 (absolute distance_from_ma50_pct) - higher is better\n- Distance from MA200 (absolute distance_from_ma200_pct) - higher is better\n- Volatility adjustment - penalize extremely high volatility\n\nI'll create a scoring system:\n- Score = (abs(change_1d_pct) * 2) + (abs(distance_from_ma50_pct) * 1.5) + (abs(distance_from_ma200_pct) * 1) - (volatility_penalty)\n\nVolatility penalty:\n- >500%: -50 points\n- >300%: -30 points\n- >200%: -20 points\n- >150%: -10 points\n\nLet me evaluate top candidates:\n\n**Potential Longs (oversold):**\n1. **PAGE_CFD.UK**: -36.80% daily, -31.73% from MA50, -40.61% from MA200, vol 193.2%\n   Score: (36.8*2) + (31.73*1.5) + (40.61*1) - 10 = 73.6 + 47.6 + 40.6 - 10 = 151.8\n\n2. **CBG_CFD.UK**: -26.63% daily, -22.13% from MA50, -13.37% from MA200, vol 169.1%\n   Score: (26.63*2) + (22.13*1.5) + (13.37*1) - 10 = 53.3 + 33.2 + 13.4 - 10 = 89.9\n\n3. **FUTR_CFD.UK**: -21.24% daily, -23.78% from MA50, -37.81% from MA200, vol 154.3%\n   Score: (21.24*2) + (23.78*1.5) + (37.81*1) - 10 = 42.5 + 35.7 + 37.8 - 10 = 106.0\n\n4. **OCDO_CFD.UK**: -21.15% daily, -5.48% from MA50, -15.82% from MA200, vol 241.3%\n   Score: (21.15*2) + (5.48*1.5) + (15.82*1) - 20 = 42.3 + 8.2 + 15.8 - 20 = 46.3\n\n5. **HIK_CFD.UK**: -19.56% daily, -15.71% from MA50, -28.88% from MA200, vol 155.6%\n   Score: (19.56*2) + (15.71*1.5) + (28.88*1) - 10 = 39.1 + 23.6 + 28.9 - 10 = 81.6\n\n6. **PSN_CFD.UK**: -18.18% daily, -17.60% from MA50, -10.44% from MA200, vol 125.4%\n   Score: (18.18*2) + (17.60*1.5) + (10.44*1) - 0 = 36.4 + 26.4 + 10.4 = 73.2\n\n7. **KGF_CFD.UK**: -16.59% daily, -8.10% from MA50, +1.77% from MA200, vol 106.8%\n   Score: (16.59*2) + (8.10*1.5) + (1.77*1) - 0 = 33.2 + 12.2 + 1.8 = 47.2\n\n8. **OSB_CFD.UK**: -16.24% daily, -10.97% from MA50, -1.84% from MA200, vol 90.3%\n   Score: (16.24*2) + (10.97*1.5) + (1.84*1) - 0 = 32.5 + 16.5 + 1.8 = 50.8\n\n**Potential Shorts (overbought):**\n1. **CRST_CFD.UK**: +24.85% daily, +17.83% from MA50, +1.27% from MA200, vol 158.5%\n   Score: (24.85*2) + (17.83*1.5) + (1.27*1) - 10 = 49.7 + 26.7 + 1.3 - 10 = 67.7\n\n2. **BOY_CFD.UK**: +24.16% daily, +18.64% from MA50, +28.65% from MA200, vol 103.5%\n   Score: (24.16*2) + (18.64*1.5) + (28.65*1) - 0 = 48.3 + 27.9 + 28.7 = 104.9\n\n3. **RSW_CFD.UK**: +18.16% daily, +14.33% from MA50, +36.78% from MA200, vol 92.6%\n   Score: (18.16*2) + (14.33*1.5) + (36.78*1) - 0 = 36.3 + 21.5 + 36.8 = 94.6\n\n4. **TRST_CFD.UK**: +44.08% daily, +7.97% from MA50, -9.57% from MA200, vol 306.1%\n   Score: (44.08*2) + (7.97*1.5) + (9.57*1) - 30 = 88.2 + 11.9 + 9.6 - 30 = 79.7\n\n5. **HMSO_CFD.UK**: +14.13% daily, +10.01% from MA50, +22.52% from MA200, vol 87.5%\n   Score: (14.13*2) + (10.01*1.5) + (22.52*1) - 0 = 28.3 + 15.0 + 22.5 = 65.8\n\n6. **SPX_CFD.UK**: +10.91% daily, +8.46% from MA50, +15.91% from MA200, vol 84.7%\n   Score: (10.91*2) + (8.46*1.5) + (15.91*1) - 0 = 21.8 + 12.7 + 15.9 = 50.4\n\n7. **DLN_CFD.UK**: +10.40% daily, +12.15% from MA50, +5.07% from MA200, vol 115.4%\n   Score: (10.40*2) + (12.15*1.5) + (5.07*1) - 0 = 20.8 + 18.2 + 5.1 = 44.1\n\n8. **EMG_CFD.UK**: +2.35% daily, +15.52% from MA50, +42.19% from MA200, vol 86.9%\n   Score: (2.35*2) + (15.52*1.5) + (42.19*1) - 0 = 4.7 + 23.3 + 42.2 = 70.2\n\nNow I need to select exactly 5 candidates. I should aim for a mix of longs and shorts if possible, but the strategy doesn't explicitly require that. The key is selecting the best mean reversion setups.\n\nTop scoring candidates:\n1. PAGE_CFD.UK: 151.8 (long)\n2. FUTR_CFD.UK: 106.0 (long)\n3. BOY_CFD.UK: 104.9 (short)\n4. RSW_CFD.UK: 94.6 (short)\n5. CBG_CFD.UK: 89.9 (long)\n6. HIK_CFD.UK: 81.6 (long)\n7. TR",
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    "provider": "DeepInfra",
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