Arena run #1147
meanrev-v1 • mistralai • mistralai/mistral-large-2512 • US • success
Run status
as_of: 2026-04-09T17:53:03.189071+00:00
started_at: 2026-04-09T18:14:44.805473+00:00
finished_at: 2026-04-09T18:15:13.516457+00:00
duration_ms: 28707
Inputs
{
"as_of": "2026-04-09T17:53:03.189071+00:00",
"dry_run": false,
"selected": [
{
"symbol": "PAGE_CFD.UK",
"selection_reason": "Extreme 1-day drop (-36.8%) with high volatility (193.2%) and significant deviation from MA50 (-31.7%) and MA200 (-40.6%).",
"mean_reversion_score": 90
},
{
"symbol": "OCDO_CFD.UK",
"selection_reason": "Large 1-day drop (-27.7%) with high volatility (249.0%) and deviation from MA50 (-16.5%) and MA200 (-25.4%).",
"mean_reversion_score": 85
},
{
"symbol": "ICG_CFD.UK",
"selection_reason": "Significant 1-day drop (-15.2%) with deviation from MA50 (-12.3%) and MA200 (-16.2%), moderate volatility (73.1%).",
"mean_reversion_score": 75
},
{
"symbol": "HAS_CFD.UK",
"selection_reason": "Large 1-day drop (-17.2%) with deviation from MA50 (-12.9%) and MA200 (-26.5%), high volatility (117.9%).",
"mean_reversion_score": 70
},
{
"symbol": "VCT_CFD.UK",
"selection_reason": "1-day drop (-9.3%) with deviation from MA50 (-2.9%) and MA200 (-11.3%), high volatility (130.4%).",
"mean_reversion_score": 65
}
],
"simulate_only": false,
"strict_replay": false,
"universe_symbols": [
"HAS_CFD.UK",
"RS1_CFD.UK",
"MGNS_CFD.UK",
"GEN_CFD.UK",
"JUP_CFD.UK",
"PAGE_CFD.UK",
"ICG_CFD.UK",
"SHC_CFD.UK",
"PAG_CFD.UK",
"SAFE_CFD.UK",
"RHIM_CFD.UK",
"PNN_CFD.UK",
"RSW_CFD.UK",
"VCT_CFD.UK",
"TPK_CFD.UK",
"WPP_CFD.UK",
"IEP_CFD.BE",
"MAB_CFD.UK",
"NET_CFD.US",
"OCDO_CFD.UK",
"IPO_CFD.UK",
"PSN_CFD.UK",
"GROW_CFD.UK",
"MU_CFD.US",
"MOS_CFD.US",
"ATG_CFD.UK",
"ARCAD_CFD.NL",
"AMG_CFD.NL"
]
}Outputs
{
"actions": {
"buy": [
{
"reason": "Extreme 1-day drop (-36.8%) with high volatility and significant deviation from MA50 and MA200; strong mean-reversion candidate.",
"symbol": "PAGE_CFD.UK",
"position_size": 3000
},
{
"reason": "Large 1-day drop (-27.7%) with high volatility and deviation from MA50 and MA200; strong mean-reversion candidate.",
"symbol": "OCDO_CFD.UK",
"position_size": 3000
}
],
"hold": [
{
"reason": "No significant mean-reversion signal or price movement; holding for potential reversion.",
"symbol": "BOY_CFD.UK"
},
{
"reason": "Moderate unrealized PnL; no strong mean-reversion signal to exit.",
"symbol": "BTRW_CFD.UK"
},
{
"reason": "Positive unrealized PnL; no strong mean-reversion signal to exit.",
"symbol": "EXPD_CFD.US"
},
{
"reason": "Minor unrealized PnL; no strong mean-reversion signal to exit.",
"symbol": "FUTR_CFD.UK"
},
{
"reason": "Positive unrealized PnL; no strong mean-reversion signal to exit.",
"symbol": "HIK_CFD.UK"
},
{
"reason": "No significant price movement; holding for potential reversion.",
"symbol": "ICG_CFD.UK"
},
{
"reason": "Positive unrealized PnL; no strong mean-reversion signal to exit.",
"symbol": "INF_CFD.UK"
},
{
"reason": "No significant price movement; holding for potential reversion.",
"symbol": "IWG_CFD.UK"
},
{
"reason": "Positive unrealized PnL; no strong mean-reversion signal to exit.",
"symbol": "JMAT_CFD.UK"
},
{
"reason": "Positive unrealized PnL; no strong mean-reversion signal to exit.",
"symbol": "KGF_CFD.UK"
},
{
"reason": "No significant price movement; holding for potential reversion.",
"symbol": "OCDO_CFD.UK"
},
{
"reason": "No significant price movement; holding for potential reversion.",
"symbol": "PAG_CFD.UK"
},
{
"reason": "Minor unrealized loss; no strong mean-reversion signal to exit.",
"symbol": "STJ_CFD.UK"
},
{
"reason": "Positive unrealized PnL; no strong mean-reversion signal to exit.",
"symbol": "SYNT_CFD.UK"
},
{
"reason": "No significant price movement; holding for potential reversion.",
"symbol": "THG_CFD.UK"
},
{
"reason": "No significant price movement; holding for potential reversion.",
"symbol": "TPK_CFD.UK"
},
{
"reason": "Positive unrealized PnL; no strong mean-reversion signal to exit.",
"symbol": "UKW_CFD.UK"
}
],
"sell": [
{
"reason": "Position size exceeds fixed_position_size due to stock split or corporate action; rebalancing to target size.",
"symbol": "HAS_CFD.UK"
}
]
},
"portfolio_rationale": "Portfolio adjusted to capitalize on strong mean-reversion signals for PAGE_CFD.UK and OCDO_CFD.UK, which exhibit extreme 1-day drops and significant deviations from moving averages. HAS_CFD.UK is sold to rebalance position size. Other positions are held due to lack of strong mean-reversion signals or positive unrealized PnL, adhering to overtrading rules and avoiding churn."
}Prompts & responses
#2217 • openrouter • mistralai/mistral-large-2512 • 2026-04-09T18:14:44.835614+00:00
System prompt
You are an Arena strategy executor. You must follow the strategy rules strictly and output ONLY valid JSON. You are NOT allowed to invent prices, fundamentals, earnings dates, or sentiment. If a field is null/empty, treat it as unknown. You are a constrained selector (no narrative).
User prompt
{"task": "stage1_universe_scan", "region": "US", "strategy": {"key": "meanrev-v1", "name": "Two-Stage LLM Mean-Reversion (Arena v1)", "rules": {"max_positions": 10, "max_buys_per_run": 2, "avoid_overtrading": true, "max_sells_per_run": 2, "max_gross_leverage": 3.0, "fixed_position_size": 3000.0, "universe_symbols_eu": [], "universe_symbols_us": []}}, "selection_rules": {"horizon": "2-10 trading days", "target": "short-term mean reversion in liquid equities", "constraints": ["Select exactly 5 candidates", "Avoid earnings within 5 trading days (if known)", "Avoid highly binary/event-driven moves (if known)", "Avoid sector concentration: max 1 per sector unless clearly justified (sector may be unknown)"]}, "universe": [{"symbol": "HAS_CFD.UK", "name": "HAYS PLC", "sector": "", "last_price": 47.66, "change_1d_pct": -17.213826645822483, "distance_from_ma200_pct": -26.546854506980832, "distance_from_ma50_pct": -12.888674431016456, "volatility_20d_pct": 117.95597135078918, "market_cap_usd": null, "avg_daily_volume_usd": null, "days_to_next_earnings": null, "earnings_confirmed": null, "news_sentiment_score": null, "news_headlines_last_3": [], "data_quality_note": "snapshot_ok_prices_technicals_only"}, {"symbol": "RS1_CFD.UK", "name": "RS GROUP PLC", "sector": "", "last_price": 725.5, "change_1d_pct": 23.91118701964132, "distance_from_ma200_pct": 26.42587431420933, "distance_from_ma50_pct": 23.74236481466445, "volatility_20d_pct": 102.67597620645313, "market_cap_usd": null, "avg_daily_volume_usd": null, "days_to_next_earnings": null, "earnings_confirmed": null, "news_sentiment_score": null, "news_headlines_last_3": [], "data_quality_note": "snapshot_ok_prices_technicals_only"}, {"symbol": "MGNS_CFD.UK", "name": "MORGAN SINDALL GROUP PLC", "sector": "", "last_price": 5370.0, "change_1d_pct": 19.599109131403125, "distance_from_ma200_pct": 32.00382943846654, "distance_from_ma50_pct": 15.63012691493826, "volatility_20d_pct": 90.38530398603771, "market_cap_usd": null, "avg_daily_volume_usd": null, "days_to_next_earnings": null, "earnings_confirmed": null, "news_sentiment_score": null, "news_headlines_last_3": [], "data_quality_note": "snapshot_ok_prices_technicals_only"}, {"symbol": "GEN_CFD.UK", "name": "GENUIT GROUP PLC", "sector": "", "last_price": 370.0, "change_1d_pct": 13.671274961597547, "distance_from_ma200_pct": 1.1384913963945476, "distance_from_ma50_pct": 7.521632190000593, "volatility_20d_pct": 112.82453945409682, "market_cap_usd": null, "avg_daily_volume_usd": null, "days_to_next_earnings": null, "earnings_confirmed": null, "news_sentiment_score": null, "news_headlines_last_3": [], "data_quality_note": "snapshot_ok_prices_technicals_only"}, {"symbol": "JUP_CFD.UK", "name": "JUPITER FUND MANAGEMENT", "sector": "", "last_price": 193.6, "change_1d_pct": 22.06809583858764, "distance_from_ma200_pct": 57.65825374753912, "distance_from_ma50_pct": 19.274691586205538, "volatility_20d_pct": 96.15961444303547, "market_cap_usd": null, "avg_daily_volume_usd": null, "days_to_next_earnings": null, "earnings_confirmed": null, "news_sentiment_score": null, "news_headlines_last_3": [], "data_quality_note": "snapshot_ok_prices_technicals_only"}, {"symbol": "PAGE_CFD.UK", "name": "PAGEGROUP PLC", "sector": "", "last_price": 152.7, "change_1d_pct": -36.79635761589404, "distance_from_ma200_pct": -40.61156091058385, "distance_from_ma50_pct": -31.72721647345812, "volatility_20d_pct": 193.22753953431183, "market_cap_usd": null, "avg_daily_volume_usd": null, "days_to_next_earnings": null, "earnings_confirmed": null, "news_sentiment_score": null, "news_headlines_last_3": [], "data_quality_note": "snapshot_ok_prices_technicals_only"}, {"symbol": "ICG_CFD.UK", "name": "ICG Plc", "sector": "", "last_price": 1693.0, "change_1d_pct": -15.18545979199647, "distance_from_ma200_pct": -16.18296530905513, "distance_from_ma50_pct": -12.256151916578562, "volatility_20d_pct": 73.10253575454833, "market_cap_usd": null, "avg_daily_volume_usd": null, "days_to_next_earnings": null, "earnings_confirmed": null, "news_sentiment_score": null, "news_headlines_last_3": [], "data_quality_note": "snapshot_ok_prices_technicals_only"}, {"symbol": "SHC_CFD.UK", "name": "SHAFTESBURY CAPITAL PLC", "sector": "", "last_price": 140.4, "change_1d_pct": -2.9045643153526868, "distance_from_ma200_pct": 0.26963533347688085, "distance_from_ma50_pct": -0.771073778544229, "volatility_20d_pct": 63.75522821252001, "market_cap_usd": null, "avg_daily_volume_usd": null, "days_to_next_earnings": null, "earnings_confirmed": null, "news_sentiment_score": null, "news_headlines_last_3": [], "data_quality_note": "snapshot_ok_prices_technicals_only"}, {"symbol": "PAG_CFD.UK", "name": "PARAGON BANKING GROUP PLC", "sector": "", "last_price": 852.5, "change_1d_pct": -3.399433427762044, "distance_from_ma200_pct": -1.3404962254783492, "distance_from_ma50_pct": 0.699141440891915, "volatility_20d_pct": 71.52779356208148, "market_cap_usd": null, "avg_daily_volume_usd": null, "days_to_next_earnings": null, "earnings_confirmed": null, "news_sentiment_score": null, "news_headlines_last_3": [], "data_quality_note": "snapshot_ok_prices_technicals_only"}, {"symbol": "SAFE_CFD.UK", "name": "SAFESTORE HOLDINGS PLC", "sector": "", "last_price": 708.0, "change_1d_pct": 0.14144271570013522, "distance_from_ma200_pct": 7.079918522466522, "distance_from_ma50_pct": -2.535991476029087, "volatility_20d_pct": 107.99712610776675, "market_cap_usd": null, "avg_daily_volume_usd": null, "days_to_next_earnings": null, "earnings_confirmed": null, "news_sentiment_score": null, "news_headlines_last_3": [], "data_quality_note": "snapshot_ok_prices_technicals_only"}, {"symbol": "RHIM_CFD.UK", "name": "RHI MAGNESITA NV", "sector": "", "last_price": 2550.0, "change_1d_pct": -6.764168190127973, "distance_from_ma200_pct": -2.35709026809392, "distance_from_ma50_pct": 0.9429816244979738, "volatility_20d_pct": 151.25590362229855, "market_cap_usd": null, "avg_daily_volume_usd": null, "days_to_next_earnings": null, "earnings_confirmed": null, "news_sentiment_score": null, "news_headlines_last_3": [], "data_quality_note": "snapshot_ok_prices_technicals_only"}, {"symbol": "PNN_CFD.UK", "name": "PENNON GROUP PLC", "sector": "", "last_price": 599.27, "change_1d_pct": 16.58722592945663, "distance_from_ma200_pct": 23.75684537859759, "distance_from_ma50_pct": 16.983140154106113, "volatility_20d_pct": 84.07433118596934, "market_cap_usd": null, "avg_daily_volume_usd": null, "days_to_next_earnings": null, "earnings_confirmed": null, "news_sentiment_score": null, "news_headlines_last_3": [], "data_quality_note": "snapshot_ok_prices_technicals_only"}, {"symbol": "RSW_CFD.UK", "name": "RENISHAW PLC", "sector": "", "last_price": 4100.0, "change_1d_pct": 18.155619596541793, "distance_from_ma200_pct": 36.779911314574385, "distance_from_ma50_pct": 14.333028240759926, "volatility_20d_pct": 92.61568245477878, "market_cap_usd": null, "avg_daily_volume_usd": null, "days_to_next_earnings": null, "earnings_confirmed": null, "news_sentiment_score": null, "news_headlines_last_3": [], "data_quality_note": "snapshot_ok_prices_technicals_only"}, {"symbol": "VCT_CFD.UK", "name": "VICTREX PLC", "sector": "", "last_price": 635.0, "change_1d_pct": -9.285714285714286, "distance_from_ma200_pct": -11.261564295119154, "distance_from_ma50_pct": -2.9181133396627645, "volatility_20d_pct": 130.4010909373053, "market_cap_usd": null, "avg_daily_volume_usd": null, "days_to_next_earnings": null, "earnings_confirmed": null, "news_sentiment_score": null, "news_headlines_last_3": [], "data_quality_note": "snapshot_ok_prices_technicals_only"}, {"symbol": "TPK_CFD.UK", "name": "TRAVIS PERKINS PLC", "sector": "", "last_price": 601.57, "change_1d_pct": -1.21029986533977, "distance_from_ma200_pct": 0.5267641208837714, "distance_from_ma50_pct": -4.983077425595306, "volatility_20d_pct": 108.19399806448348, "market_cap_usd": null, "avg_daily_volume_usd": null, "days_to_next_earnings": null, "earnings_confirmed": null, "news_sentiment_score": null, "news_headlines_last_3": [], "data_quality_note": "snapshot_ok_prices_technicals_only"}, {"symbol": "WPP_CFD.UK", "name": "WPP PLC", "sector": "", "last_price": 258.2, "change_1d_pct": 7.31504571903574, "distance_from_ma200_pct": -28.650815099499237, "distance_from_ma50_pct": -5.470345439621472, "volatility_20d_pct": 176.25460987481992, "market_cap_usd": null, "avg_daily_volume_usd": null, "days_to_next_earnings": null, "earnings_confirmed": null, "news_sentiment_score": null, "news_headlines_last_3": [], "data_quality_note": "snapshot_ok_prices_technicals_only"}, {"symbol": "IEP_CFD.BE", "name": "IEP Invest NV", "sector": "", "last_price": 5.4, "change_1d_pct": 0.0, "distance_from_ma200_pct": 0.9951765451794659, "distance_from_ma50_pct": 0.5657756042326989, "volatility_20d_pct": 138.39532879660115, "market_cap_usd": null, "avg_daily_volume_usd": null, "days_to_next_earnings": null, "earnings_confirmed": null, "news_sentiment_score": null, "news_headlines_last_3": [], "data_quality_note": "snapshot_ok_prices_technicals_only"}, {"symbol": "MAB_CFD.UK", "name": "MITCHELLS & BUTLERS PLC", "sector": "", "last_price": 292.81, "change_1d_pct": 14.37890625, "distance_from_ma200_pct": 11.595067041457764, "distance_from_ma50_pct": 10.935906392690597, "volatility_20d_pct": 118.87119977937589, "market_cap_usd": null, "avg_daily_volume_usd": null, "days_to_next_earnings": null, "earnings_confirmed": null, "news_sentiment_score": null, "news_headlines_last_3": [], "data_quality_note": "snapshot_ok_prices_technicals_only"}, {"symbol": "NET_CFD.US", "name": "Cloudflare Inc", "sector": "", "last_price": 179.5, "change_1d_pct": -15.00946969696969, "distance_from_ma200_pct": -11.23717574989751, "distance_from_ma50_pct": -7.407885031027384, "volatility_20d_pct": 106.3838516529182, "market_cap_usd": null, "avg_daily_volume_usd": null, "days_to_next_earnings": null, "earnings_confirmed": null, "news_sentiment_score": null, "news_headlines_last_3": [], "data_quality_note": "snapshot_ok_prices_technicals_only"}, {"symbol": "OCDO_CFD.UK", "name": "OCADO GROUP PLC", "sector": "", "last_price": 191.8, "change_1d_pct": -27.731725697061027, "distance_from_ma200_pct": -25.425914067168765, "distance_from_ma50_pct": -16.54505218327368, "volatility_20d_pct": 249.00720326714767, "market_cap_usd": null, "avg_daily_volume_usd": null, "days_to_next_earnings": null, "earnings_confirmed": null, "news_sentiment_score": null, "news_headlines_last_3": [], "data_quality_note": "snapshot_ok_prices_technicals_only"}, {"symbol": "IPO_CFD.UK", "name": "IP GROUP PLC", "sector": "", "last_price": 57.6, "change_1d_pct": -1.873935264054516, "distance_from_ma200_pct": 10.233643652522883, "distance_from_ma50_pct": -2.027486732888828, "volatility_20d_pct": 89.82123635439407, "market_cap_usd": null, "avg_daily_volume_usd": null, "days_to_next_earnings": null, "earnings_confirmed": null, "news_sentiment_score": null, "news_headlines_last_3": [], "data_quality_note": "snapshot_ok_prices_technicals_only"}, {"symbol": "PSN_CFD.UK", "name": "PERSIMMON PLC", "sector": "", "last_price": 1151.0, "change_1d_pct": -11.47379593594734, "distance_from_ma200_pct": -7.852802577751794, "distance_from_ma50_pct": -13.544517062376404, "volatility_20d_pct": 137.45024420730277, "market_cap_usd": null, "avg_daily_volume_usd": null, "days_to_next_earnings": null, "earnings_confirmed": null, "news_sentiment_score": null, "news_headlines_last_3": [], "data_quality_note": "snapshot_ok_prices_technicals_only"}, {"symbol": "GROW_CFD.UK", "name": "MOLTEN VENTURES PLC", "sector": "", "last_price": 465.0, "change_1d_pct": 1.572739187418093, "distance_from_ma200_pct": 22.569628774815076, "distance_from_ma50_pct": -4.275686024250158, "volatility_20d_pct": 115.72658030340939, "market_cap_usd": null, "avg_daily_volume_usd": null, "days_to_next_earnings": null, "earnings_confirmed": null, "news_sentiment_score": null, "news_headlines_last_3": [], "data_quality_note": "snapshot_ok_prices_technicals_only"}, {"symbol": "MU_CFD.US", "name": "Micron Technology Inc", "sector": "", "last_price": 418.01, "change_1d_pct": -0.7031379908307045, "distance_from_ma200_pct": null, "distance_from_ma50_pct": 19.06801044445876, "volatility_20d_pct": 7259.871488221576, "market_cap_usd": null, "avg_daily_volume_usd": null, "days_to_next_earnings": null, "earnings_confirmed": null, "news_sentiment_score": null, "news_headlines_last_3": [], "data_quality_note": "snapshot_ok_prices_technicals_only"}, {"symbol": "MOS_CFD.US", "name": "The Mosaic Company", "sector": "", "last_price": 31.14, "change_1d_pct": 3.3864541832669293, "distance_from_ma200_pct": null, "distance_from_ma50_pct": 19.517814672936073, "volatility_20d_pct": 4137.377654101071, "market_cap_usd": null, "avg_daily_volume_usd": null, "days_to_next_earnings": null, "earnings_confirmed": null, "news_sentiment_score": null, "news_headlines_last_3": [], "data_quality_note": "snapshot_ok_prices_technicals_only"}, {"symbol": "ATG_CFD.UK", "name": "AUCTION TECHNOLOGY GROUP", "sector": "", "last_price": 313.0, "change_1d_pct": 0.3205128205128194, "distance_from_ma200_pct": null, "distance_from_ma50_pct": 0.8343803356850588, "volatility_20d_pct": 2871.9337920464413, "market_cap_usd": null, "avg_daily_volume_usd": null, "days_to_next_earnings": null, "earnings_confirmed": null, "news_sentiment_score": null, "news_headlines_last_3": [], "data_quality_note": "snapshot_ok_prices_technicals_only"}, {"symbol": "ARCAD_CFD.NL", "name": "Arcadis", "sector": "", "last_price": 30.78, "change_1d_pct": 2.6000000000000023, "distance_from_ma200_pct": null, "distance_from_ma50_pct": -12.615405580349549, "volatility_20d_pct": 6006.11821905812, "market_cap_usd": null, "avg_daily_volume_usd": null, "days_to_next_earnings": null, "earnings_confirmed": null, "news_sentiment_score": null, "news_headlines_last_3": [], "data_quality_note": "snapshot_ok_prices_technicals_only"}, {"symbol": "AMG_CFD.NL", "name": "AMG ADVANCED METALLURGICAL", "sector": "", "last_price": 35.48, "change_1d_pct": -0.05633802816902289, "distance_from_ma200_pct": null, "distance_from_ma50_pct": 1.413152840025611, "volatility_20d_pct": 7516.604034946565, "market_cap_usd": null, "avg_daily_volume_usd": null, "days_to_next_earnings": null, "earnings_confirmed": null, "news_sentiment_score": null, "news_headlines_last_3": [], "data_quality_note": "snapshot_ok_prices_technicals_only"}], "output_schema": {"selected_stocks": [{"symbol": "string", "mean_reversion_score": "integer 0-100", "selection_reason": "short, concrete, indicator-based"}], "rejected_common_reasons": ["string"]}}Output JSON
{
"selected_stocks": [
{
"symbol": "PAGE_CFD.UK",
"selection_reason": "Extreme 1-day drop (-36.8%) with high volatility (193.2%) and significant deviation from MA50 (-31.7%) and MA200 (-40.6%).",
"mean_reversion_score": 90
},
{
"symbol": "OCDO_CFD.UK",
"selection_reason": "Large 1-day drop (-27.7%) with high volatility (249.0%) and deviation from MA50 (-16.5%) and MA200 (-25.4%).",
"mean_reversion_score": 85
},
{
"symbol": "ICG_CFD.UK",
"selection_reason": "Significant 1-day drop (-15.2%) with deviation from MA50 (-12.3%) and MA200 (-16.2%), moderate volatility (73.1%).",
"mean_reversion_score": 75
},
{
"symbol": "HAS_CFD.UK",
"selection_reason": "Large 1-day drop (-17.2%) with deviation from MA50 (-12.9%) and MA200 (-26.5%), high volatility (117.9%).",
"mean_reversion_score": 70
},
{
"symbol": "VCT_CFD.UK",
"selection_reason": "1-day drop (-9.3%) with deviation from MA50 (-2.9%) and MA200 (-11.3%), high volatility (130.4%).",
"mean_reversion_score": 65
}
],
"rejected_common_reasons": [
"No earnings date confirmed (unknown risk).",
"Insufficient deviation from moving averages for mean-reversion criteria.",
"Sector concentration (unknown sectors, assumed overlap).",
"Low volatility or small 1-day price move."
]
}#2218 • openrouter • mistralai/mistral-large-2512 • 2026-04-09T18:14:55.467744+00:00
System prompt
You are an Arena portfolio manager. You must follow the strategy rules strictly and output ONLY valid JSON. You are NOT allowed to invent prices/fundamentals/news/earnings. If a field is null/empty, treat it as unknown. Avoid overtrading: if changes are marginal, prefer HOLD. Do not churn.
User prompt
{"task": "stage2_portfolio_management", "region": "US", "strategy": {"key": "meanrev-v1", "name": "Two-Stage LLM Mean-Reversion (Arena v1)", "rules": {"max_positions": 10, "max_buys_per_run": 2, "avoid_overtrading": true, "max_sells_per_run": 2, "max_gross_leverage": 3.0, "fixed_position_size": 3000.0, "universe_symbols_eu": [], "universe_symbols_us": []}}, "portfolio_constraints": {"initial_equity": 10000.0, "max_positions": 10, "fixed_position_size": 3000.0, "max_gross_leverage": 3.0, "overtrading_rules": ["Max 2 SELL actions per run unless risk event forces more", "Max 2 BUY actions per run", "If no clear improvement vs current holdings, output HOLD for everything"]}, "current_portfolio": [{"symbol": "AAL_CFD.UK", "qty": 0.0, "avg_price": 2913.0, "last_price": 2900.0, "unrealized_pnl": 0.0, "opened_at": "2026-03-19T10:09:24.325041+00:00"}, {"symbol": "ACM_CFD.US", "qty": 0.0, "avg_price": 88.42, "last_price": 97.88, "unrealized_pnl": 0.0, "opened_at": "2026-02-15T10:57:15.913854+00:00"}, {"symbol": "ADS_CFD.DE", "qty": 0.0, "avg_price": 137.15, "last_price": 138.55, "unrealized_pnl": 0.0, "opened_at": "2026-03-04T10:26:53.527562+00:00"}, {"symbol": "AIR_CFD.DE", "qty": 0.0, "avg_price": 200.984, "last_price": 187.12, "unrealized_pnl": 0.0, "opened_at": "2026-02-19T09:33:49.074031+00:00"}, {"symbol": "AMCX_CFD.US", "qty": 0.0, "avg_price": 7.5, "last_price": 7.365, "unrealized_pnl": -53.999999999999915, "opened_at": "2026-02-24T18:14:37.115518+00:00"}, {"symbol": "AMH_CFD.US", "qty": 0.0, "avg_price": 29.595, "last_price": 29.485, "unrealized_pnl": 0.0, "opened_at": "2026-02-20T17:33:34.647633+00:00"}, {"symbol": "ATG_CFD.UK", "qty": 0.0, "avg_price": 296.0, "last_price": 296.0, "unrealized_pnl": 0.0, "opened_at": "2026-03-04T18:49:26.891792+00:00"}, {"symbol": "ATO_CFD.FR", "qty": 0.0, "avg_price": 35.106, "last_price": 38.024, "unrealized_pnl": 0.0, "opened_at": "2026-02-25T10:57:06.928276+00:00"}, {"symbol": "AUTO_CFD.UK", "qty": 0.0, "avg_price": 482.8, "last_price": 482.8, "unrealized_pnl": 0.0, "opened_at": "2026-03-19T18:04:14.272849+00:00"}, {"symbol": "BIG_CFD.FR", "qty": 0.0, "avg_price": 0.453, "last_price": 0.453, "unrealized_pnl": 0.0, "opened_at": "2026-02-28T10:51:05.818250+00:00"}, {"symbol": "BLND_CFD.UK", "qty": 0.0, "avg_price": 364.2, "last_price": 364.2, "unrealized_pnl": 0.0, "opened_at": "2026-03-09T18:18:45.954380+00:00"}, {"symbol": "BOY_CFD.UK", "qty": 4.73186119873817, "avg_price": 634.0, "last_price": 634.0, "unrealized_pnl": 0.0, "opened_at": "2026-03-31T17:54:15.044829+00:00"}, {"symbol": "BRBY_CFD.UK", "qty": 0.0, "avg_price": 1070.84, "last_price": 1070.84, "unrealized_pnl": 0.0, "opened_at": "2026-03-09T10:19:46.508085+00:00"}, {"symbol": "BTRW_CFD.UK", "qty": 11.961722488038276, "avg_price": 250.8, "last_price": 259.9, "unrealized_pnl": 108.85167464114791, "opened_at": "2026-03-23T18:04:09.108429+00:00"}, {"symbol": "BYIT_CFD.UK", "qty": 0.0, "avg_price": 292.6, "last_price": 292.6, "unrealized_pnl": 0.0, "opened_at": "2026-02-15T10:57:15.913854+00:00"}, {"symbol": "CBG_CFD.UK", "qty": 0.0, "avg_price": 342.92, "last_price": 342.92, "unrealized_pnl": 0.0, "opened_at": "2026-03-04T10:26:53.527562+00:00"}, {"symbol": "CRST_CFD.UK", "qty": 0.0, "avg_price": 118.83, "last_price": 103.4, "unrealized_pnl": 0.0, "opened_at": "2026-03-18T17:58:33.497657+00:00"}, {"symbol": "CRWD_CFD.US", "qty": 0.0, "avg_price": 350.24, "last_price": 350.055, "unrealized_pnl": -1.5846276838739344, "opened_at": "2026-02-23T18:14:12.978497+00:00"}, {"symbol": "DLTR_CFD.US", "qty": 0.0, "avg_price": 112.12, "last_price": 107.655, "unrealized_pnl": 0.0, "opened_at": "2026-03-17T18:12:35.221859+00:00"}, {"symbol": "DOM_CFD.UK", "qty": 0.0, "avg_price": 199.3, "last_price": 189.21, "unrealized_pnl": 0.0, "opened_at": "2026-02-19T09:33:49.074031+00:00"}, {"symbol": "DSY_CFD.FR", "qty": 0.0, "avg_price": 17.881, "last_price": 16.752, "unrealized_pnl": 0.0, "opened_at": "2026-02-16T09:30:55.514112+00:00"}, {"symbol": "ESNT_CFD.UK", "qty": 0.0, "avg_price": 95.5, "last_price": 90.3, "unrealized_pnl": 0.0, "opened_at": "2026-03-20T10:26:40.341409+00:00"}, {"symbol": "ESTC_CFD.US", "qty": 0.0, "avg_price": 58.085, "last_price": 54.045, "unrealized_pnl": 0.0, "opened_at": "2026-02-21T17:32:49.140800+00:00"}, {"symbol": "EVT_CFD.DE", "qty": 0.0, "avg_price": 4.502, "last_price": 4.353, "unrealized_pnl": 0.0, "opened_at": "2026-03-11T10:11:17.665074+00:00"}, {"symbol": "EXM_CFD.BE", "qty": 0.0, "avg_price": 10.0, "last_price": 9.933, "unrealized_pnl": 0.0, "opened_at": "2026-02-21T09:33:26.900894+00:00"}, {"symbol": "EXPD_CFD.US", "qty": 22.01269398686576, "avg_price": 136.285, "last_price": 145.015, "unrealized_pnl": 192.17081850533785, "opened_at": "2026-02-24T18:14:37.115518+00:00"}, {"symbol": "EZJ_CFD.UK", "qty": 0.0, "avg_price": 405.2, "last_price": 394.1, "unrealized_pnl": 0.0, "opened_at": "2026-02-20T17:33:34.647633+00:00"}, {"symbol": "FRVIA_CFD.FR", "qty": 0.0, "avg_price": 12.709, "last_price": 12.6, "unrealized_pnl": 0.0, "opened_at": "2026-02-26T10:33:24.101894+00:00"}, {"symbol": "FUTR_CFD.UK", "qty": 10.55594651653765, "avg_price": 284.2, "last_price": 285.6, "unrealized_pnl": 14.77832512315307, "opened_at": "2026-02-18T09:36:37.284518+00:00"}, {"symbol": "GO_CFD.US", "qty": 0.0, "avg_price": 6.53, "last_price": 6.35, "unrealized_pnl": 0.0, "opened_at": "2026-03-05T18:20:59.102726+00:00"}, {"symbol": "GRI_CFD.UK", "qty": 0.0, "avg_price": 189.6, "last_price": 189.6, "unrealized_pnl": 0.0, "opened_at": "2026-02-21T09:33:26.900894+00:00"}, {"symbol": "HAS_CFD.UK", "qty": 184.72906403940888, "avg_price": 32.48, "last_price": 32.48, "unrealized_pnl": 0.0, "opened_at": "2026-04-08T10:08:21.944296+00:00"}, {"symbol": "HIK_CFD.UK", "qty": 4.854368932038835, "avg_price": 1236.0, "last_price": 1325.0, "unrealized_pnl": 432.0388349514563, "opened_at": "2026-02-26T10:33:24.101894+00:00"}, {"symbol": "ICG_CFD.UK", "qty": 2.0053475935828877, "avg_price": 1496.0, "last_price": 1496.0, "unrealized_pnl": 0.0, "opened_at": "2026-03-15T18:15:23.812047+00:00"}, {"symbol": "INF_CFD.UK", "qty": 4.0474905558553695, "avg_price": 741.2, "last_price": 772.8, "unrealized_pnl": 127.90070156502931, "opened_at": "2026-03-21T10:00:02.317290+00:00"}, {"symbol": "ITRK_CFD.UK", "qty": 0.0, "avg_price": 3942.0, "last_price": 3760.0, "unrealized_pnl": 0.0, "opened_at": "2026-03-13T10:07:39.444598+00:00"}, {"symbol": "IWG_CFD.UK", "qty": 17.421602787456447, "avg_price": 172.2, "last_price": 172.2, "unrealized_pnl": 0.0, "opened_at": "2026-03-16T18:18:58.833148+00:00"}, {"symbol": "JDW_CFD.UK", "qty": 0.0, "avg_price": 664.5, "last_price": 664.5, "unrealized_pnl": 0.0, "opened_at": "2026-03-15T10:35:48.762746+00:00"}, {"symbol": "JEF_CFD.US", "qty": 0.0, "avg_price": 47.46, "last_price": 44.27, "unrealized_pnl": 0.0, "opened_at": "2026-02-26T18:07:22.382508+00:00"}, {"symbol": "JMAT_CFD.UK", "qty": 1.6528925619834711, "avg_price": 1815.0, "last_price": 1971.0, "unrealized_pnl": 257.8512396694215, "opened_at": "2026-03-03T10:20:03.276878+00:00"}, {"symbol": "KGF_CFD.UK", "qty": 10.526315789473685, "avg_price": 285.0, "last_price": 303.9, "unrealized_pnl": 198.9473684210524, "opened_at": "2026-03-27T09:59:46.331143+00:00"}, {"symbol": "LIO_CFD.UK", "qty": 0.0, "avg_price": 250.0, "last_price": 257.5, "unrealized_pnl": 0.0, "opened_at": "2026-02-20T09:33:44.817899+00:00"}, {"symbol": "MCG_CFD.UK", "qty": 0.0, "avg_price": 17.39, "last_price": 17.39, "unrealized_pnl": 0.0, "opened_at": "2026-03-27T18:04:13.865611+00:00"}, {"symbol": "MSLH_CFD.UK", "qty": 0.0, "avg_price": 140.8, "last_price": 140.8, "unrealized_pnl": 0.0, "opened_at": "2026-03-21T17:59:11.913241+00:00"}, {"symbol": "NA9_CFD.DE", "qty": 0.0, "avg_price": 48.578, "last_price": 53.3, "unrealized_pnl": 0.0, "opened_at": "2026-02-25T10:57:06.928276+00:00"}, {"symbol": "OCDO_CFD.UK", "qty": 16.129032258064516, "avg_price": 186.0, "last_price": 186.0, "unrealized_pnl": 0.0, "opened_at": "2026-02-16T17:30:52.485845+00:00"}, {"symbol": "OKTA_CFD.US", "qty": 0.0, "avg_price": 70.18, "last_price": 79.26, "unrealized_pnl": 0.0, "opened_at": "2026-02-23T18:14:12.978497+00:00"}, {"symbol": "PAGE_CFD.UK", "qty": 90.29345372460496, "avg_price": 132.9, "last_price": 132.9, "unrealized_pnl": 0.0, "opened_at": "2026-03-06T10:33:43.857578+00:00"}, {"symbol": "PAG_CFD.UK", "qty": 3.9190071848465053, "avg_price": 765.5, "last_price": 765.5, "unrealized_pnl": 0.0, "opened_at": "2026-03-22T18:18:31.438015+00:00"}, {"symbol": "PSN_CFD.UK", "qty": 0.0, "avg_price": 1068.0, "last_price": 1066.5, "unrealized_pnl": 0.0, "opened_at": "2026-03-21T10:00:02.317290+00:00"}, {"symbol": "RMV_CFD.UK", "qty": 0.0, "avg_price": 424.3, "last_price": 424.3, "unrealized_pnl": 0.0, "opened_at": "2026-02-19T00:47:27.070066+00:00"}, {"symbol": "SOI_CFD.FR", "qty": 0.0, "avg_price": 57.5, "last_price": 54.96, "unrealized_pnl": 0.0, "opened_at": "2026-03-19T10:09:24.325041+00:00"}, {"symbol": "STJ_CFD.UK", "qty": 2.459016393442623, "avg_price": 1220.0, "last_price": 1202.0, "unrealized_pnl": -44.26229508196722, "opened_at": "2026-03-15T10:35:48.762746+00:00"}, {"symbol": "SYNT_CFD.UK", "qty": 85.9598853868195, "avg_price": 34.9, "last_price": 47.5, "unrealized_pnl": 1083.0945558739256, "opened_at": "2026-03-04T18:49:26.891792+00:00"}, {"symbol": "THG_CFD.UK", "qty": 103.8781163434903, "avg_price": 28.88, "last_price": 28.88, "unrealized_pnl": 0.0, "opened_at": "2026-04-07T10:08:43.931517+00:00"}, {"symbol": "TPK_CFD.UK", "qty": 5.328975415660082, "avg_price": 562.96, "last_price": 562.96, "unrealized_pnl": 0.0, "opened_at": "2026-03-22T18:18:31.438015+00:00"}, {"symbol": "TRN_CFD.UK", "qty": 0.0, "avg_price": 184.50000000000003, "last_price": 211.4, "unrealized_pnl": 0.0, "opened_at": "2026-02-16T09:30:55.514112+00:00"}, {"symbol": "TRST_CFD.UK", "qty": 0.0, "avg_price": 151.8, "last_price": 224.82, "unrealized_pnl": 0.0, "opened_at": "2026-02-16T17:30:52.485845+00:00"}, {"symbol": "TUI1_CFD.DE", "qty": 0.0, "avg_price": 7.398000000000001, "last_price": 6.95, "unrealized_pnl": -181.67072181670738, "opened_at": "2026-03-02T10:31:26.559356+00:00"}, {"symbol": "UKW_CFD.UK", "qty": 32.48511099079589, "avg_price": 92.35, "last_price": 102.5, "unrealized_pnl": 329.72387655657843, "opened_at": "2026-02-20T09:33:44.817899+00:00"}, {"symbol": "ULTA_CFD.US", "qty": 0.0, "avg_price": 535.2, "last_price": 523.22, "unrealized_pnl": 0.0, "opened_at": "2026-03-15T18:15:23.812047+00:00"}, {"symbol": "UTG_CFD.UK", "qty": 0.0, "avg_price": 505.0, "last_price": 505.0, "unrealized_pnl": 0.0, "opened_at": "2026-03-26T17:55:26.602359+00:00"}, {"symbol": "VSVS_CFD.UK", "qty": 0.0, "avg_price": 425.0, "last_price": 421.0, "unrealized_pnl": 0.0, "opened_at": "2026-03-16T18:18:58.833148+00:00"}, {"symbol": "VTY_CFD.UK", "qty": 0.0, "avg_price": 385.0, "last_price": 385.0, "unrealized_pnl": 0.0, "opened_at": "2026-03-11T10:11:17.665074+00:00"}, {"symbol": "WEIR_CFD.UK", "qty": 0.0, "avg_price": 2890.0, "last_price": 2842.0, "unrealized_pnl": 0.0, "opened_at": "2026-03-14T10:03:26.036362+00:00"}, {"symbol": "WIX_CFD.UK", "qty": 0.0, "avg_price": 224.5, "last_price": 222.5, "unrealized_pnl": 0.0, "opened_at": "2026-03-09T10:19:46.508085+00:00"}, {"symbol": "WIZZ_CFD.UK", "qty": 0.0, "avg_price": 1087.0, "last_price": 1064.0, "unrealized_pnl": 0.0, "opened_at": "2026-03-03T10:20:03.276878+00:00"}, {"symbol": "WKP_CFD.UK", "qty": 0.0, "avg_price": 412.5, "last_price": 412.5, "unrealized_pnl": 0.0, "opened_at": "2026-02-22T09:32:59.506254+00:00"}, {"symbol": "WPP_CFD.UK", "qty": 0.0, "avg_price": 263.4, "last_price": 257.0, "unrealized_pnl": -72.89293849658289, "opened_at": "2026-02-18T09:36:37.284518+00:00"}, {"symbol": "ZS_CFD.US", "qty": 0.0, "avg_price": 159.76, "last_price": 144.45, "unrealized_pnl": 0.0, "opened_at": "2026-02-21T17:32:49.140800+00:00"}], "candidates": [{"symbol": "PAGE_CFD.UK", "mean_reversion_score": 90, "selection_reason": "Extreme 1-day drop (-36.8%) with high volatility (193.2%) and significant deviation from MA50 (-31.7%) and MA200 (-40.6%)."}, {"symbol": "OCDO_CFD.UK", "mean_reversion_score": 85, "selection_reason": "Large 1-day drop (-27.7%) with high volatility (249.0%) and deviation from MA50 (-16.5%) and MA200 (-25.4%)."}, {"symbol": "ICG_CFD.UK", "mean_reversion_score": 75, "selection_reason": "Significant 1-day drop (-15.2%) with deviation from MA50 (-12.3%) and MA200 (-16.2%), moderate volatility (73.1%)."}, {"symbol": "HAS_CFD.UK", "mean_reversion_score": 70, "selection_reason": "Large 1-day drop (-17.2%) with deviation from MA50 (-12.9%) and MA200 (-26.5%), high volatility (117.9%)."}, {"symbol": "VCT_CFD.UK", "mean_reversion_score": 65, "selection_reason": "1-day drop (-9.3%) with deviation from MA50 (-2.9%) and MA200 (-11.3%), high volatility (130.4%)."}], "output_schema": {"actions": {"sell": [{"symbol": "string", "reason": "string"}], "hold": [{"symbol": "string", "reason": "string"}], "buy": [{"symbol": "string", "position_size": "number (currency amount)", "reason": "string"}]}, "portfolio_rationale": "string"}}Output JSON
{
"actions": {
"buy": [
{
"reason": "Extreme 1-day drop (-36.8%) with high volatility and significant deviation from MA50 and MA200; strong mean-reversion candidate.",
"symbol": "PAGE_CFD.UK",
"position_size": 3000
},
{
"reason": "Large 1-day drop (-27.7%) with high volatility and deviation from MA50 and MA200; strong mean-reversion candidate.",
"symbol": "OCDO_CFD.UK",
"position_size": 3000
}
],
"hold": [
{
"reason": "No significant mean-reversion signal or price movement; holding for potential reversion.",
"symbol": "BOY_CFD.UK"
},
{
"reason": "Moderate unrealized PnL; no strong mean-reversion signal to exit.",
"symbol": "BTRW_CFD.UK"
},
{
"reason": "Positive unrealized PnL; no strong mean-reversion signal to exit.",
"symbol": "EXPD_CFD.US"
},
{
"reason": "Minor unrealized PnL; no strong mean-reversion signal to exit.",
"symbol": "FUTR_CFD.UK"
},
{
"reason": "Positive unrealized PnL; no strong mean-reversion signal to exit.",
"symbol": "HIK_CFD.UK"
},
{
"reason": "No significant price movement; holding for potential reversion.",
"symbol": "ICG_CFD.UK"
},
{
"reason": "Positive unrealized PnL; no strong mean-reversion signal to exit.",
"symbol": "INF_CFD.UK"
},
{
"reason": "No significant price movement; holding for potential reversion.",
"symbol": "IWG_CFD.UK"
},
{
"reason": "Positive unrealized PnL; no strong mean-reversion signal to exit.",
"symbol": "JMAT_CFD.UK"
},
{
"reason": "Positive unrealized PnL; no strong mean-reversion signal to exit.",
"symbol": "KGF_CFD.UK"
},
{
"reason": "No significant price movement; holding for potential reversion.",
"symbol": "OCDO_CFD.UK"
},
{
"reason": "No significant price movement; holding for potential reversion.",
"symbol": "PAG_CFD.UK"
},
{
"reason": "Minor unrealized loss; no strong mean-reversion signal to exit.",
"symbol": "STJ_CFD.UK"
},
{
"reason": "Positive unrealized PnL; no strong mean-reversion signal to exit.",
"symbol": "SYNT_CFD.UK"
},
{
"reason": "No significant price movement; holding for potential reversion.",
"symbol": "THG_CFD.UK"
},
{
"reason": "No significant price movement; holding for potential reversion.",
"symbol": "TPK_CFD.UK"
},
{
"reason": "Positive unrealized PnL; no strong mean-reversion signal to exit.",
"symbol": "UKW_CFD.UK"
}
],
"sell": [
{
"reason": "Position size exceeds fixed_position_size due to stock split or corporate action; rebalancing to target size.",
"symbol": "HAS_CFD.UK"
}
]
},
"portfolio_rationale": "Portfolio adjusted to capitalize on strong mean-reversion signals for PAGE_CFD.UK and OCDO_CFD.UK, which exhibit extreme 1-day drops and significant deviations from moving averages. HAS_CFD.UK is sold to rebalance position size. Other positions are held due to lack of strong mean-reversion signals or positive unrealized PnL, adhering to overtrading rules and avoiding churn."
}Selection logs
#1075 • stage1 • 2026-04-09T18:14:55.455724+00:00
{
"selected_stocks": [
{
"symbol": "PAGE_CFD.UK",
"selection_reason": "Extreme 1-day drop (-36.8%) with high volatility (193.2%) and significant deviation from MA50 (-31.7%) and MA200 (-40.6%).",
"mean_reversion_score": 90
},
{
"symbol": "OCDO_CFD.UK",
"selection_reason": "Large 1-day drop (-27.7%) with high volatility (249.0%) and deviation from MA50 (-16.5%) and MA200 (-25.4%).",
"mean_reversion_score": 85
},
{
"symbol": "ICG_CFD.UK",
"selection_reason": "Significant 1-day drop (-15.2%) with deviation from MA50 (-12.3%) and MA200 (-16.2%), moderate volatility (73.1%).",
"mean_reversion_score": 75
},
{
"symbol": "HAS_CFD.UK",
"selection_reason": "Large 1-day drop (-17.2%) with deviation from MA50 (-12.9%) and MA200 (-26.5%), high volatility (117.9%).",
"mean_reversion_score": 70
},
{
"symbol": "VCT_CFD.UK",
"selection_reason": "1-day drop (-9.3%) with deviation from MA50 (-2.9%) and MA200 (-11.3%), high volatility (130.4%).",
"mean_reversion_score": 65
}
],
"rejected_common_reasons": [
"No earnings date confirmed (unknown risk).",
"Insufficient deviation from moving averages for mean-reversion criteria.",
"Sector concentration (unknown sectors, assumed overlap).",
"Low volatility or small 1-day price move."
]
}