Arena run #1140

meanrev-v1moonshotaimoonshotai/kimi-k2-thinkingEUsuccess
Arena
Run status
as_of: 2026-04-09T10:04:16.483403+00:00
started_at: 2026-04-09T12:34:34.570943+00:00
finished_at: 2026-04-09T12:38:59.489246+00:00
duration_ms: 264916
Inputs
{
  "as_of": "2026-04-09T10:04:16.483403+00:00",
  "dry_run": false,
  "selected": [],
  "simulate_only": false,
  "strict_replay": false,
  "universe_symbols": [
    "HAS_CFD.UK",
    "MDM_CFD.FR",
    "MGNS_CFD.UK",
    "GEN_CFD.UK",
    "BOY_CFD.UK",
    "CRST_CFD.UK",
    "PAGE_CFD.UK",
    "FGP_CFD.UK",
    "ICG_CFD.UK",
    "SHC_CFD.UK",
    "PAG_CFD.UK",
    "CBG_CFD.UK",
    "VCT_CFD.UK",
    "DLN_CFD.UK",
    "DOM_CFD.UK",
    "ONTEX_CFD.BE",
    "DHER_CFD.DE",
    "IEP_CFD.BE",
    "BIG_CFD.FR",
    "OCDO_CFD.UK",
    "ESNT_CFD.UK",
    "CMCX_CFD.UK",
    "MC_CFD.FR",
    "GROW_CFD.UK",
    "CDI_CFD.FR",
    "AIXA_CFD.DE",
    "SPX_CFD.UK",
    "VIRI_CFD.FR",
    "WKP_CFD.UK",
    "CAP_CFD.FR",
    "BYW6_CFD.DE",
    "ZIL2_CFD.DE",
    "SMIN_CFD.UK",
    "BPOST_CFD.BE",
    "DOCS_CFD.UK",
    "VXXB_CFD.ETF",
    "CRDA_CFD.UK",
    "DEZ_CFD.DE",
    "HUBS_CFD.US",
    "ATG_CFD.UK",
    "BOSS_CFD.DE",
    "CLARI_CFD.FR",
    "COTY_CFD.US",
    "VTY_CFD.UK",
    "MDV_CFD.PL",
    "HMSO_CFD.UK",
    "SGL_CFD.DE",
    "WDAY_CFD.US",
    "OR_CFD.FR",
    "BRBY_CFD.UK"
  ]
}
Outputs
{
  "raw": {
    "id": "gen-1775738155-U2Dv9x0esbVLz7OSvL6F",
    "model": "moonshotai/kimi-k2-thinking-20251106",
    "usage": {
      "cost": 0.0112444,
      "is_byok": false,
      "cost_details": {
        "upstream_inference_cost": 0.0112444,
        "upstream_inference_prompt_cost": 0.0012444,
        "upstream_inference_completions_cost": 0.01
      },
      "total_tokens": 6074,
      "prompt_tokens": 2074,
      "completion_tokens": 4000,
      "prompt_tokens_details": {
        "audio_tokens": 0,
        "video_tokens": 0,
        "cached_tokens": 0,
        "cache_write_tokens": 0
      },
      "completion_tokens_details": {
        "audio_tokens": 0,
        "image_tokens": 0,
        "reasoning_tokens": 3142
      }
    },
    "object": "chat.completion",
    "choices": [
      {
        "index": 0,
        "message": {
          "role": "assistant",
          "content": null,
          "refusal": null,
          "reasoning": "  The user wants me to act as an Arena portfolio manager following the \"meanrev-v1\" strategy. I need to analyze the current portfolio and decide on actions (BUY, SELL, HOLD) based on mean-reversion principles.\n\nLet me first understand the strategy:\n- Max positions: 10\n- Max buys per run: 2\n- Max sells per run: 2\n- Avoid overtrading\n- Max gross leverage: 3.0\n- Fixed position size: 3000.0\n- Universe symbols: empty (so I need to work with what's provided)\n\nCurrent portfolio analysis:\nI have 21 symbols listed, but many have qty=0 (effectively not holding). Let me count actual positions:\n- AML_CFD.UK: 82.15 shares @ 36.52, last 40.5 (+11%)\n- AUTO_CFD.UK: 6.21 shares @ 482.8, last 482.8 (0%)\n- BTRW_CFD.UK: 0 shares\n- BYIT_CFD.UK: 0 shares\n- CBG_CFD.UK: 8.75 shares @ 342.92, last 342.92 (0%)\n- CRST_CFD.UK: 0 shares\n- FUTR_CFD.UK: 10.56 shares @ 284.2, last 297.6 (+4.7%)\n- ICG_CFD.UK: 0 shares\n- IWG_CFD.UK: 0 shares\n- LRE_CFD.UK: 0 shares\n- LSS_CFD.FR: 0 shares (but shows negative PnL - this is weird)\n- MCG_CFD.UK: 172.51 shares @ 17.39, last 20.14 (+15.8%)\n- MSLH_CFD.UK: 21.31 shares @ 140.8, last 137.2 (-2.6%)\n- OCDO_CFD.UK: 14.68 shares @ 204.3, last 186.0 (-9.0%)\n- PAGE_CFD.UK: 0 shares\n- PSN_CFD.UK: 2.65 shares @ 1134.0, last 1184.5 (+4.5%)\n- SYNT_CFD.UK: 0 shares\n- TRST_CFD.UK: 0 shares\n- UTG_CFD.UK: 0 shares\n- VTY_CFD.UK: 8.86 shares @ 338.75, last 330.2 (-2.5%)\n- WIZZ_CFD.UK: 0 shares\n- WPP_CFD.UK: 0 shares\n\nActual positions held: AML, AUTO, CBG, FUTR, MCG, MSLH, OCDO, PSN, VTY = 9 positions\n\nWait, let me recount: \n1. AML_CFD.UK (qty > 0)\n2. AUTO_CFD.UK (qty > 0)\n3. CBG_CFD.UK (qty > 0)\n4. FUTR_CFD.UK (qty > 0)\n5. MCG_CFD.UK (qty > 0)\n6. MSLH_CFD.UK (qty > 0)\n7. OCDO_CFD.UK (qty > 0)\n8. PSN_CFD.UK (qty > 0)\n9. VTY_CFD.UK (qty > 0)\n\nThat's 9 active positions. LSS_CFD.FR shows qty=0 but has unrealized_pnl which is inconsistent. I'll treat it as not held.\n\nFor mean-reversion strategy:\n- We want to SELL positions that have moved UP significantly (mean reversion suggests they'll come back down)\n- We want to BUY positions that have moved DOWN significantly (mean reversion suggests they'll bounce back)\n\nLet me calculate the percentage change for each held position:\n1. AML: (40.5 - 36.52) / 36.52 = +10.9%\n2. AUTO: (482.8 - 482.8) / 482.8 = 0%\n3. CBG: (342.92 - 342.92) / 342.92 = 0%\n4. FUTR: (297.6 - 284.2) / 284.2 = +4.7%\n5. MCG: (20.14 - 17.39) / 17.39 = +15.8%\n6. MSLH: (137.2 - 140.8) / 140.8 = -2.6%\n7. OCDO: (186.0 - 204.3) / 204.3 = -9.0%\n8. PSN: (1184.5 - 1134.0) / 1134.0 = +4.5%\n9. VTY: (330.2 - 338.75) / 338.75 = -2.5%\n\nFor mean reversion, the candidates for SELL are those that have moved up the most: MCG (+15.8%), AML (+10.9%), FUTR (+4.7%), PSN (+4.5%)\n\nThe candidates for BUY (or HOLD to wait for recovery) are those that have moved down: OCDO (-9.0%), MSLH (-2.6%), VTY (-2.5%)\n\nBut wait, the strategy says \"avoid_overtrading\" and \"if no clear improvement vs current holdings, output HOLD for everything\". Also, we have max 2 sells and max 2 buys per run.\n\nLet me think about the principles:\n1. We should SELL winners that have deviated significantly upward from mean\n2. We should BUY losers that have deviated significantly downward from mean\n3. But we need to be careful not to overtrade\n\nGiven the constraints:\n- Current positions: 9 (so we have room for 1 more position)\n- We can sell up to 2 positions\n- We can buy up to 2 positions\n\nBut the portfolio shows many symbols with qty=0. These could be candidates for BUY if they've dropped significantly. Let me check the ones not held:\n\nSymbols not held (qty=0):\n- BTRW_CFD.UK: last 263.2 vs avg 250.8 (+5.0%) - up, not a buy candidate\n- BYIT_CFD.UK: last 292.6 vs avg 292.6 (0%) - flat\n- CRST_CFD.UK: last 118.83 vs avg 118.83 (0%) - flat\n- ICG_CFD.UK: last 1693 vs avg 1700 (-0.4%) - slight down\n- IWG_CFD.UK: last 172.2 vs avg 177 (-2.7%) - down\n- LRE_CFD.UK: last 593 vs avg 576 (+2.9%) - up\n- LSS_CFD.FR: last 16.0 vs avg 17.72 (-9.7%) - down significantly\n- PAGE_CFD.UK: last 132.9 vs avg 132.9 (0%) - flat\n- SYNT_CFD.UK: last 45.0 vs avg 34.9 (+29.2%) - up significantly\n- TRST_CFD.UK: last 173.4 vs avg 151.8 (+14.3%) - up significantly\n- UTG_CFD.UK: last 461.2 vs avg 505 (-8.7%) - down\n- WIZZ_CFD.UK: last 976.5 vs avg 872 (+12.0%) - up\n- WPP_CFD.UK: last 262.8 vs avg 253.97 (+3.5%) - up\n\nFor mean reversion, BUY candidates would be those down significantly:\n- LSS_CFD.FR: -9.7%\n- UTG_CFD.UK: -8.7%\n- OCDO (already held): -9.0%\n- IWG_CFD.UK: -2.7%\n\nSELL candidates (those up significantly):\n- MCG: +15.8%\n- SYNT (not held but up 29% - not relevant for sell)\n- TRST (not held but up 14.3% - not relevant)\n- WIZZ (not held but up 12% - not relevant)\n- AML: +10.9%\n- WIZZ (if held): +12%\n\nNow, let me think about the current portfolio more carefully. The strategy is mean-reversion, so:\n\nFor positions we hold:\n- MCG: +15.8% - STRONG SELL candidate (biggest winner)\n- AML: +10.9% - SELL candidate\n- FUTR: +4.7% - moderate, could HOLD\n- PSN: +4.5% - moderate, could HOLD\n- AUTO: 0% - HOLD\n- CBG: 0% - HOLD\n- MSLH: -2.6% - HOLD (wait for recovery or BUY more)\n- OCDO: -9.0% - HOLD (wait for recovery or BUY more)\n- VTY: -2.5% - HOLD\n\nFor positions we don't hold:\n- LSS_CFD.FR: -9.7% - BUY candidate (biggest loser)\n- UTG_CFD.UK: -8.7% - BUY candidate\n- IWG_CFD.UK: -2.7% - moderate BUY candidate\n- ICG_CFD.UK: -0.4% - not significant\n\nGiven the constraints:\n- Max 2 sells: I should sell MCG and AML (the two biggest winners)\n- Max 2 buys: I should buy LSS and UTG (the two biggest losers not held)\n- But I need to check if buying these would exceed max positions\n\nCurrent positions: 9\nIf I sell 2: 7 positions\nIf I buy 2: 9 positions (within limit of 10)\n\nBut wait, I need to be careful about overtrading. The rule says \"If no clear improvement vs current holdings, output HOLD for everything\". \n\nLet me reconsider. Maybe I should only make the most obvious trades:\n- MCG at +15.8% is a clear SELL signal for mean reversion\n- AML at +10.9% is also a decent SELL signal\n- LSS at -9.7% is a clear BUY signal\n- UTG at -8.7% is also a decent BUY signal\n\nBut I should also consider that OCDO is already held at -9.0%. Maybe I should buy more OCDO instead of UTG? But the strategy says \"fixed_position_size\": 3000.0, so each position should be roughly 3000 currency units.\n\nLet me calculate current position values:\n- AML: 82.15 * 40.5 = 3329\n- AUTO: 6.21 * 482.8 = 2998\n- CBG: 8.75 * 342.92 = 3000\n- FUTR: 10.56 * 297.6 = 3143\n- MCG: 172.51 * 20.14 = 3470\n- MSLH: 21.31 * 137.2 = 2924\n- OCDO: 14.68 * 186.0 = 2730\n- PSN: 2.65 * 1184.5 = 3137\n- VTY: 8.86 * 330.2 = 2925\n\nThese are all roughly around 3000, which matches the fixed_position_size.\n\nSo if I buy a new position, it should be around 3000 value.\n\nNow, let me think about the mean-reversion rationale more carefully. The strategy is \"Two-Stage LLM Mean-Reversion\". This suggests we should:\n\n1. Identify extreme deviations from mean (both over and under)\n2. Take contrarian positions\n3. The \"two-stage\" might refer to some time period or some other factor\n\nGiven the data I have, I can only work with price deviations from entry price (as a proxy for mean).\n\nMy decisions:\nSELL:\n1. MCG_CFD.UK: +15.8% gain - strongest mean-reversion signal\n2. AML_CFD.UK: +10.9% gain - second strongest\n\nHOLD:\n- OCDO_CFD.UK: -9.0% - already a losing position, mean-reversion suggests it will recover, so HOLD\n- MSLH_CFD.UK: -2.6% - slight loss, HOLD\n- VTY_CFD.UK: -2.5% - slight loss, HOLD\n- FUTR_CFD.UK: +4.7% - moderate gain, but not extreme enough to trigger sell\n- PSN_CFD.UK: +4.5% - moderate gain, but not extreme enough to trigger sell\n- AUTO_CFD.UK: 0% - flat, HOLD\n- CBG_CFD.UK: 0% - flat, HOLD\n\nBUY:\n1. LSS_CFD.FR: -9.7% - biggest loser not held, strong BUY signal\n2. UTG_CFD.UK: -8.7% - second biggest loser not held, strong BUY signal\n\nBut wait, I need to check the \"avoid_overtrading\" rule. Is it worth making these trades? The deviations are significant (15.8%, 10.9% for sells; 9.7%, 8.7% for buys). I think yes, these are clear signals.\n\nHowever, I notice that LSS_CFD.FR is a French symbol (.FR) while the rest are UK (.UK). The region is specified as \"EU\", so this should be fine.\n\nLet me double-check the portfolio constraints:\n- initial_equity: 10000.0\n- max_positions: 10\n- fixed_position_size: 3000.0\n- max_gross_leverage: 3.0\n\nCurrent portfolio value: sum of all position values = approximately 9 * 3000 = 27000\nBut wait, this exceeds initial equity of 10000. This means we're using leverage. Let me calculate more precisely:\n\nSum of position values:\nAML: 3329.04\nAUTO: 2998.00\nCBG: 3000.00\nFUTR: 3143.43\nMCG: 3470.00\nMSLH: 2924.00\nOCDO: 2730.00\nPSN: 3137.00\nVTY: 2925.00\nTotal: 26556.47\n\nLeverage = 26556.47 / 10000 = 2.66x, which is within the 3.0 limit.\n\nIf I sell MCG and AML, I reduce exposure by ~6800\nIf I buy LSS and UTG, I add ~6000\nNet effect is small, leverage remains within limits.\n\nNow, let me structure the output JSON:\n\nFor SELL actions, I need to provide symbol and reason.\nFor BUY actions, I need to provide symbol, position_size (currency amount), and reason.\nFor HOLD actions, I need to provide symbol and reason.\n\nThe reasons should be concise and reference mean-reversion rationale.\n\nLet me calculate the exact position sizes for buys:\n- LSS_CFD.FR: last_price 16.0, so qty = 3000 / 16.0 = 187.5 shares\n- UTG_CFD.UK: last_price 461.2, so qty = 3000 / 461.2 = 6.5 shares\n\nBut the output schema just asks for position_size as \"currency amount\", so I should put 3000.\n\nWait, I need to be more careful. The schema says \"position_size\": \"number (currency amount)\". So I should put the monetary value, e.g., 3000.\n\nLet me finalize my decisions:\n\nSELL:\n1. MCG_CFD.UK: +15.8% above entry, strong mean-reversion signal\n2. AML_CFD.UK: +10.9% above entry, good mean-reversion signal\n\nBUY:\n1. LSS_CFD.FR: -9.7% below entry, strongest loser not held\n2. UTG_CFD.UK: -8.7% below entry, second strongest loser not held\n\nHOLD:\n- All other held positions (OCDO, MSLH, VTY, FUTR, PSN, AUTO, CBG) with appropriate reasons\n- All non-held positions that don't meet the threshold\n\nBut I need to be careful about the number of HOLD entries. The schema shows hold as an array. Should I include every single symbol? That would be a lot. Let me check the schema again.\n\nThe schema shows:\n\"hold\": [{\"symbol\": \"string\", \"reason\": \"string\"}]\n\nThis suggests it's an array of objects. I should include all symbols that I'm not buying or selling, with a brief reason.\n\nActually, looking at typical portfolio management outputs, usually we only list the symbols we're actively making decisions on. But the schema seems to require listing everything.\n\nLet me reconsider: maybe I should only list the symbols where there's an active decision. But the schema shows three separate arrays: sell, hold, buy. So I need to categorize every symbol into one of these three actions.\n\nGiven that, I need to list:\n- SELL: MCG, AML\n- BUY: LSS, UTG\n- HOLD: everything else (17 symbols)\n\nThat's a lot, but I can group reasons. For symbols not held and not being bought, the reason is simply \"No significant mean-reversion signal; not held\" or similar.\n\nLet me craft the final JSON:\n\n```json\n{\n  \"actions\": {\n    \"sell\": [\n      {\n        \"symbol\": \"MCG_CFD.UK\",\n        \"reason\": \"Up 15.8% from entry price - significant over-extension, mean-reversion signal to lock profits\"\n      },\n      {\n        \"symbol\": \"AML_CFD.UK\",\n        \"reason\": \"Up 10.9% from entry price - overbought condition, mean-reversion signal to take profits\"\n      }\n    ],\n    \"hold\": [\n      {\n        \"symbol\": \"OCDO_CFD.UK\",\n        \"reason\": \"Down 9.0% - significant under-extension, mean-reversion suggests holding for recovery\"\n      },\n      {\n        \"symbol\": \"MSLH_C",
          "reasoning_details": [
            {
              "text": "  The user wants me to act as an Arena portfolio manager following the \"meanrev-v1\" strategy. I need to analyze the current portfolio and decide on actions (BUY, SELL, HOLD) based on mean-reversion principles.\n\nLet me first understand the strategy:\n- Max positions: 10\n- Max buys per run: 2\n- Max sells per run: 2\n- Avoid overtrading\n- Max gross leverage: 3.0\n- Fixed position size: 3000.0\n- Universe symbols: empty (so I need to work with what's provided)\n\nCurrent portfolio analysis:\nI have 21 symbols listed, but many have qty=0 (effectively not holding). Let me count actual positions:\n- AML_CFD.UK: 82.15 shares @ 36.52, last 40.5 (+11%)\n- AUTO_CFD.UK: 6.21 shares @ 482.8, last 482.8 (0%)\n- BTRW_CFD.UK: 0 shares\n- BYIT_CFD.UK: 0 shares\n- CBG_CFD.UK: 8.75 shares @ 342.92, last 342.92 (0%)\n- CRST_CFD.UK: 0 shares\n- FUTR_CFD.UK: 10.56 shares @ 284.2, last 297.6 (+4.7%)\n- ICG_CFD.UK: 0 shares\n- IWG_CFD.UK: 0 shares\n- LRE_CFD.UK: 0 shares\n- LSS_CFD.FR: 0 shares (but shows negative PnL - this is weird)\n- MCG_CFD.UK: 172.51 shares @ 17.39, last 20.14 (+15.8%)\n- MSLH_CFD.UK: 21.31 shares @ 140.8, last 137.2 (-2.6%)\n- OCDO_CFD.UK: 14.68 shares @ 204.3, last 186.0 (-9.0%)\n- PAGE_CFD.UK: 0 shares\n- PSN_CFD.UK: 2.65 shares @ 1134.0, last 1184.5 (+4.5%)\n- SYNT_CFD.UK: 0 shares\n- TRST_CFD.UK: 0 shares\n- UTG_CFD.UK: 0 shares\n- VTY_CFD.UK: 8.86 shares @ 338.75, last 330.2 (-2.5%)\n- WIZZ_CFD.UK: 0 shares\n- WPP_CFD.UK: 0 shares\n\nActual positions held: AML, AUTO, CBG, FUTR, MCG, MSLH, OCDO, PSN, VTY = 9 positions\n\nWait, let me recount: \n1. AML_CFD.UK (qty > 0)\n2. AUTO_CFD.UK (qty > 0)\n3. CBG_CFD.UK (qty > 0)\n4. FUTR_CFD.UK (qty > 0)\n5. MCG_CFD.UK (qty > 0)\n6. MSLH_CFD.UK (qty > 0)\n7. OCDO_CFD.UK (qty > 0)\n8. PSN_CFD.UK (qty > 0)\n9. VTY_CFD.UK (qty > 0)\n\nThat's 9 active positions. LSS_CFD.FR shows qty=0 but has unrealized_pnl which is inconsistent. I'll treat it as not held.\n\nFor mean-reversion strategy:\n- We want to SELL positions that have moved UP significantly (mean reversion suggests they'll come back down)\n- We want to BUY positions that have moved DOWN significantly (mean reversion suggests they'll bounce back)\n\nLet me calculate the percentage change for each held position:\n1. AML: (40.5 - 36.52) / 36.52 = +10.9%\n2. AUTO: (482.8 - 482.8) / 482.8 = 0%\n3. CBG: (342.92 - 342.92) / 342.92 = 0%\n4. FUTR: (297.6 - 284.2) / 284.2 = +4.7%\n5. MCG: (20.14 - 17.39) / 17.39 = +15.8%\n6. MSLH: (137.2 - 140.8) / 140.8 = -2.6%\n7. OCDO: (186.0 - 204.3) / 204.3 = -9.0%\n8. PSN: (1184.5 - 1134.0) / 1134.0 = +4.5%\n9. VTY: (330.2 - 338.75) / 338.75 = -2.5%\n\nFor mean reversion, the candidates for SELL are those that have moved up the most: MCG (+15.8%), AML (+10.9%), FUTR (+4.7%), PSN (+4.5%)\n\nThe candidates for BUY (or HOLD to wait for recovery) are those that have moved down: OCDO (-9.0%), MSLH (-2.6%), VTY (-2.5%)\n\nBut wait, the strategy says \"avoid_overtrading\" and \"if no clear improvement vs current holdings, output HOLD for everything\". Also, we have max 2 sells and max 2 buys per run.\n\nLet me think about the principles:\n1. We should SELL winners that have deviated significantly upward from mean\n2. We should BUY losers that have deviated significantly downward from mean\n3. But we need to be careful not to overtrade\n\nGiven the constraints:\n- Current positions: 9 (so we have room for 1 more position)\n- We can sell up to 2 positions\n- We can buy up to 2 positions\n\nBut the portfolio shows many symbols with qty=0. These could be candidates for BUY if they've dropped significantly. Let me check the ones not held:\n\nSymbols not held (qty=0):\n- BTRW_CFD.UK: last 263.2 vs avg 250.8 (+5.0%) - up, not a buy candidate\n- BYIT_CFD.UK: last 292.6 vs avg 292.6 (0%) - flat\n- CRST_CFD.UK: last 118.83 vs avg 118.83 (0%) - flat\n- ICG_CFD.UK: last 1693 vs avg 1700 (-0.4%) - slight down\n- IWG_CFD.UK: last 172.2 vs avg 177 (-2.7%) - down\n- LRE_CFD.UK: last 593 vs avg 576 (+2.9%) - up\n- LSS_CFD.FR: last 16.0 vs avg 17.72 (-9.7%) - down significantly\n- PAGE_CFD.UK: last 132.9 vs avg 132.9 (0%) - flat\n- SYNT_CFD.UK: last 45.0 vs avg 34.9 (+29.2%) - up significantly\n- TRST_CFD.UK: last 173.4 vs avg 151.8 (+14.3%) - up significantly\n- UTG_CFD.UK: last 461.2 vs avg 505 (-8.7%) - down\n- WIZZ_CFD.UK: last 976.5 vs avg 872 (+12.0%) - up\n- WPP_CFD.UK: last 262.8 vs avg 253.97 (+3.5%) - up\n\nFor mean reversion, BUY candidates would be those down significantly:\n- LSS_CFD.FR: -9.7%\n- UTG_CFD.UK: -8.7%\n- OCDO (already held): -9.0%\n- IWG_CFD.UK: -2.7%\n\nSELL candidates (those up significantly):\n- MCG: +15.8%\n- SYNT (not held but up 29% - not relevant for sell)\n- TRST (not held but up 14.3% - not relevant)\n- WIZZ (not held but up 12% - not relevant)\n- AML: +10.9%\n- WIZZ (if held): +12%\n\nNow, let me think about the current portfolio more carefully. The strategy is mean-reversion, so:\n\nFor positions we hold:\n- MCG: +15.8% - STRONG SELL candidate (biggest winner)\n- AML: +10.9% - SELL candidate\n- FUTR: +4.7% - moderate, could HOLD\n- PSN: +4.5% - moderate, could HOLD\n- AUTO: 0% - HOLD\n- CBG: 0% - HOLD\n- MSLH: -2.6% - HOLD (wait for recovery or BUY more)\n- OCDO: -9.0% - HOLD (wait for recovery or BUY more)\n- VTY: -2.5% - HOLD\n\nFor positions we don't hold:\n- LSS_CFD.FR: -9.7% - BUY candidate (biggest loser)\n- UTG_CFD.UK: -8.7% - BUY candidate\n- IWG_CFD.UK: -2.7% - moderate BUY candidate\n- ICG_CFD.UK: -0.4% - not significant\n\nGiven the constraints:\n- Max 2 sells: I should sell MCG and AML (the two biggest winners)\n- Max 2 buys: I should buy LSS and UTG (the two biggest losers not held)\n- But I need to check if buying these would exceed max positions\n\nCurrent positions: 9\nIf I sell 2: 7 positions\nIf I buy 2: 9 positions (within limit of 10)\n\nBut wait, I need to be careful about overtrading. The rule says \"If no clear improvement vs current holdings, output HOLD for everything\". \n\nLet me reconsider. Maybe I should only make the most obvious trades:\n- MCG at +15.8% is a clear SELL signal for mean reversion\n- AML at +10.9% is also a decent SELL signal\n- LSS at -9.7% is a clear BUY signal\n- UTG at -8.7% is also a decent BUY signal\n\nBut I should also consider that OCDO is already held at -9.0%. Maybe I should buy more OCDO instead of UTG? But the strategy says \"fixed_position_size\": 3000.0, so each position should be roughly 3000 currency units.\n\nLet me calculate current position values:\n- AML: 82.15 * 40.5 = 3329\n- AUTO: 6.21 * 482.8 = 2998\n- CBG: 8.75 * 342.92 = 3000\n- FUTR: 10.56 * 297.6 = 3143\n- MCG: 172.51 * 20.14 = 3470\n- MSLH: 21.31 * 137.2 = 2924\n- OCDO: 14.68 * 186.0 = 2730\n- PSN: 2.65 * 1184.5 = 3137\n- VTY: 8.86 * 330.2 = 2925\n\nThese are all roughly around 3000, which matches the fixed_position_size.\n\nSo if I buy a new position, it should be around 3000 value.\n\nNow, let me think about the mean-reversion rationale more carefully. The strategy is \"Two-Stage LLM Mean-Reversion\". This suggests we should:\n\n1. Identify extreme deviations from mean (both over and under)\n2. Take contrarian positions\n3. The \"two-stage\" might refer to some time period or some other factor\n\nGiven the data I have, I can only work with price deviations from entry price (as a proxy for mean).\n\nMy decisions:\nSELL:\n1. MCG_CFD.UK: +15.8% gain - strongest mean-reversion signal\n2. AML_CFD.UK: +10.9% gain - second strongest\n\nHOLD:\n- OCDO_CFD.UK: -9.0% - already a losing position, mean-reversion suggests it will recover, so HOLD\n- MSLH_CFD.UK: -2.6% - slight loss, HOLD\n- VTY_CFD.UK: -2.5% - slight loss, HOLD\n- FUTR_CFD.UK: +4.7% - moderate gain, but not extreme enough to trigger sell\n- PSN_CFD.UK: +4.5% - moderate gain, but not extreme enough to trigger sell\n- AUTO_CFD.UK: 0% - flat, HOLD\n- CBG_CFD.UK: 0% - flat, HOLD\n\nBUY:\n1. LSS_CFD.FR: -9.7% - biggest loser not held, strong BUY signal\n2. UTG_CFD.UK: -8.7% - second biggest loser not held, strong BUY signal\n\nBut wait, I need to check the \"avoid_overtrading\" rule. Is it worth making these trades? The deviations are significant (15.8%, 10.9% for sells; 9.7%, 8.7% for buys). I think yes, these are clear signals.\n\nHowever, I notice that LSS_CFD.FR is a French symbol (.FR) while the rest are UK (.UK). The region is specified as \"EU\", so this should be fine.\n\nLet me double-check the portfolio constraints:\n- initial_equity: 10000.0\n- max_positions: 10\n- fixed_position_size: 3000.0\n- max_gross_leverage: 3.0\n\nCurrent portfolio value: sum of all position values = approximately 9 * 3000 = 27000\nBut wait, this exceeds initial equity of 10000. This means we're using leverage. Let me calculate more precisely:\n\nSum of position values:\nAML: 3329.04\nAUTO: 2998.00\nCBG: 3000.00\nFUTR: 3143.43\nMCG: 3470.00\nMSLH: 2924.00\nOCDO: 2730.00\nPSN: 3137.00\nVTY: 2925.00\nTotal: 26556.47\n\nLeverage = 26556.47 / 10000 = 2.66x, which is within the 3.0 limit.\n\nIf I sell MCG and AML, I reduce exposure by ~6800\nIf I buy LSS and UTG, I add ~6000\nNet effect is small, leverage remains within limits.\n\nNow, let me structure the output JSON:\n\nFor SELL actions, I need to provide symbol and reason.\nFor BUY actions, I need to provide symbol, position_size (currency amount), and reason.\nFor HOLD actions, I need to provide symbol and reason.\n\nThe reasons should be concise and reference mean-reversion rationale.\n\nLet me calculate the exact position sizes for buys:\n- LSS_CFD.FR: last_price 16.0, so qty = 3000 / 16.0 = 187.5 shares\n- UTG_CFD.UK: last_price 461.2, so qty = 3000 / 461.2 = 6.5 shares\n\nBut the output schema just asks for position_size as \"currency amount\", so I should put 3000.\n\nWait, I need to be more careful. The schema says \"position_size\": \"number (currency amount)\". So I should put the monetary value, e.g., 3000.\n\nLet me finalize my decisions:\n\nSELL:\n1. MCG_CFD.UK: +15.8% above entry, strong mean-reversion signal\n2. AML_CFD.UK: +10.9% above entry, good mean-reversion signal\n\nBUY:\n1. LSS_CFD.FR: -9.7% below entry, strongest loser not held\n2. UTG_CFD.UK: -8.7% below entry, second strongest loser not held\n\nHOLD:\n- All other held positions (OCDO, MSLH, VTY, FUTR, PSN, AUTO, CBG) with appropriate reasons\n- All non-held positions that don't meet the threshold\n\nBut I need to be careful about the number of HOLD entries. The schema shows hold as an array. Should I include every single symbol? That would be a lot. Let me check the schema again.\n\nThe schema shows:\n\"hold\": [{\"symbol\": \"string\", \"reason\": \"string\"}]\n\nThis suggests it's an array of objects. I should include all symbols that I'm not buying or selling, with a brief reason.\n\nActually, looking at typical portfolio management outputs, usually we only list the symbols we're actively making decisions on. But the schema seems to require listing everything.\n\nLet me reconsider: maybe I should only list the symbols where there's an active decision. But the schema shows three separate arrays: sell, hold, buy. So I need to categorize every symbol into one of these three actions.\n\nGiven that, I need to list:\n- SELL: MCG, AML\n- BUY: LSS, UTG\n- HOLD: everything else (17 symbols)\n\nThat's a lot, but I can group reasons. For symbols not held and not being bought, the reason is simply \"No significant mean-reversion signal; not held\" or similar.\n\nLet me craft the final JSON:\n\n```json\n{\n  \"actions\": {\n    \"sell\": [\n      {\n        \"symbol\": \"MCG_CFD.UK\",\n        \"reason\": \"Up 15.8% from entry price - significant over-extension, mean-reversion signal to lock profits\"\n      },\n      {\n        \"symbol\": \"AML_CFD.UK\",\n        \"reason\": \"Up 10.9% from entry price - overbought condition, mean-reversion signal to take profits\"\n      }\n    ],\n    \"hold\": [\n      {\n        \"symbol\": \"OCDO_CFD.UK\",\n        \"reason\": \"Down 9.0% - significant under-extension, mean-reversion suggests holding for recovery\"\n      },\n      {\n        \"symbol\": \"MSLH_C",
              "type": "reasoning.text",
              "index": 0,
              "format": "unknown"
            }
          ]
        },
        "logprobs": null,
        "finish_reason": "length",
        "native_finish_reason": "length"
      }
    ],
    "created": 1775738155,
    "provider": "Google",
    "system_fingerprint": null
  }
}
Prompts & responses
#2204openroutermoonshotai/kimi-k2-thinking2026-04-09T12:34:34.622028+00:00
System prompt
You are an Arena strategy executor. You must follow the strategy rules strictly and output ONLY valid JSON. You are NOT allowed to invent prices, fundamentals, earnings dates, or sentiment. If a field is null/empty, treat it as unknown. You are a constrained selector (no narrative).
User prompt
{"task": "stage1_universe_scan", "region": "EU", "strategy": {"key": "meanrev-v1", "name": "Two-Stage LLM Mean-Reversion (Arena v1)", "rules": {"max_positions": 10, "max_buys_per_run": 2, "avoid_overtrading": true, "max_sells_per_run": 2, "max_gross_leverage": 3.0, "fixed_position_size": 3000.0, "universe_symbols_eu": [], "universe_symbols_us": []}}, "selection_rules": {"horizon": "2-10 trading days", "target": "short-term mean reversion in liquid equities", "constraints": ["Select exactly 5 candidates", "Avoid earnings within 5 trading days (if known)", "Avoid highly binary/event-driven moves (if known)", "Avoid sector concentration: max 1 per sector unless clearly justified (sector may be unknown)"]}, "universe": [{"symbol": "HAS_CFD.UK", "name": "HAYS PLC", "sector": "", "last_price": 47.66, "change_1d_pct": -17.213826645822483, "distance_from_ma200_pct": -26.546854506980832, "distance_from_ma50_pct": -12.888674431016456, "volatility_20d_pct": 117.95597135078918, "market_cap_usd": null, "avg_daily_volume_usd": null, "days_to_next_earnings": null, "earnings_confirmed": null, "news_sentiment_score": null, "news_headlines_last_3": [], "data_quality_note": "snapshot_ok_prices_technicals_only"}, {"symbol": "MDM_CFD.FR", "name": "Maisons Du Monde", "sector": "", "last_price": 0.881, "change_1d_pct": -23.788927335640132, "distance_from_ma200_pct": -52.221224948004654, "distance_from_ma50_pct": -33.44312824851928, "volatility_20d_pct": 18104.93330731392, "market_cap_usd": null, "avg_daily_volume_usd": null, "days_to_next_earnings": null, "earnings_confirmed": null, "news_sentiment_score": null, "news_headlines_last_3": [], "data_quality_note": "snapshot_ok_prices_technicals_only"}, {"symbol": "MGNS_CFD.UK", "name": "MORGAN SINDALL GROUP PLC", "sector": "", "last_price": 5370.0, "change_1d_pct": 19.599109131403125, "distance_from_ma200_pct": 32.00382943846654, "distance_from_ma50_pct": 15.63012691493826, "volatility_20d_pct": 90.38530398603771, "market_cap_usd": null, "avg_daily_volume_usd": null, "days_to_next_earnings": null, "earnings_confirmed": null, "news_sentiment_score": null, "news_headlines_last_3": [], "data_quality_note": "snapshot_ok_prices_technicals_only"}, {"symbol": "GEN_CFD.UK", "name": "GENUIT GROUP PLC", "sector": "", "last_price": 370.0, "change_1d_pct": 13.671274961597547, "distance_from_ma200_pct": 1.1384913963945476, "distance_from_ma50_pct": 7.521632190000593, "volatility_20d_pct": 112.82453945409682, "market_cap_usd": null, "avg_daily_volume_usd": null, "days_to_next_earnings": null, "earnings_confirmed": null, "news_sentiment_score": null, "news_headlines_last_3": [], "data_quality_note": "snapshot_ok_prices_technicals_only"}, {"symbol": "BOY_CFD.UK", "name": "BODYCOTE PLC", "sector": "", "last_price": 775.4, "change_1d_pct": 24.163330664531625, "distance_from_ma200_pct": 28.652243313347768, "distance_from_ma50_pct": 18.63612217470385, "volatility_20d_pct": 103.46484337510964, "market_cap_usd": null, "avg_daily_volume_usd": null, "days_to_next_earnings": null, "earnings_confirmed": null, "news_sentiment_score": null, "news_headlines_last_3": [], "data_quality_note": "snapshot_ok_prices_technicals_only"}, {"symbol": "CRST_CFD.UK", "name": "CREST NICHOLSON HOLDINGS", "sector": "", "last_price": 118.83, "change_1d_pct": -12.817314746881891, "distance_from_ma200_pct": -28.150055914529826, "distance_from_ma50_pct": -15.848139991077058, "volatility_20d_pct": 236.5351415372937, "market_cap_usd": null, "avg_daily_volume_usd": null, "days_to_next_earnings": null, "earnings_confirmed": null, "news_sentiment_score": null, "news_headlines_last_3": [], "data_quality_note": "snapshot_ok_prices_technicals_only"}, {"symbol": "PAGE_CFD.UK", "name": "PAGEGROUP PLC", "sector": "", "last_price": 152.7, "change_1d_pct": -36.79635761589404, "distance_from_ma200_pct": -40.61156091058385, "distance_from_ma50_pct": -31.72721647345812, "volatility_20d_pct": 193.22753953431183, "market_cap_usd": null, "avg_daily_volume_usd": null, "days_to_next_earnings": null, "earnings_confirmed": null, "news_sentiment_score": null, "news_headlines_last_3": [], "data_quality_note": "snapshot_ok_prices_technicals_only"}, {"symbol": "FGP_CFD.UK", "name": "FIRSTGROUP PLC", "sector": "", "last_price": 193.2, "change_1d_pct": 1.3109596224436304, "distance_from_ma200_pct": -4.044842646206826, "distance_from_ma50_pct": 1.7250076083144883, "volatility_20d_pct": 88.3516119820011, "market_cap_usd": null, "avg_daily_volume_usd": null, "days_to_next_earnings": null, "earnings_confirmed": null, "news_sentiment_score": null, "news_headlines_last_3": [], "data_quality_note": "snapshot_ok_prices_technicals_only"}, {"symbol": "ICG_CFD.UK", "name": "ICG Plc", "sector": "", "last_price": 1693.0, "change_1d_pct": -15.18545979199647, "distance_from_ma200_pct": -16.18296530905513, "distance_from_ma50_pct": -12.256151916578562, "volatility_20d_pct": 73.10253575454833, "market_cap_usd": null, "avg_daily_volume_usd": null, "days_to_next_earnings": null, "earnings_confirmed": null, "news_sentiment_score": null, "news_headlines_last_3": [], "data_quality_note": "snapshot_ok_prices_technicals_only"}, {"symbol": "SHC_CFD.UK", "name": "SHAFTESBURY CAPITAL PLC", "sector": "", "last_price": 140.4, "change_1d_pct": -2.9045643153526868, "distance_from_ma200_pct": 0.26963533347688085, "distance_from_ma50_pct": -0.771073778544229, "volatility_20d_pct": 63.75522821252001, "market_cap_usd": null, "avg_daily_volume_usd": null, "days_to_next_earnings": null, "earnings_confirmed": null, "news_sentiment_score": null, "news_headlines_last_3": [], "data_quality_note": "snapshot_ok_prices_technicals_only"}, {"symbol": "PAG_CFD.UK", "name": "PARAGON BANKING GROUP PLC", "sector": "", "last_price": 852.5, "change_1d_pct": -3.399433427762044, "distance_from_ma200_pct": -1.3404962254783492, "distance_from_ma50_pct": 0.699141440891915, "volatility_20d_pct": 71.52779356208148, "market_cap_usd": null, "avg_daily_volume_usd": null, "days_to_next_earnings": null, "earnings_confirmed": null, "news_sentiment_score": null, "news_headlines_last_3": [], "data_quality_note": "snapshot_ok_prices_technicals_only"}, {"symbol": "CBG_CFD.UK", "name": "CLOSE BROTHERS GROUP PLC", "sector": "", "last_price": 372.74, "change_1d_pct": -26.625984251968504, "distance_from_ma200_pct": -13.365429078084645, "distance_from_ma50_pct": -22.129222788055436, "volatility_20d_pct": 169.0552301316783, "market_cap_usd": null, "avg_daily_volume_usd": null, "days_to_next_earnings": null, "earnings_confirmed": null, "news_sentiment_score": null, "news_headlines_last_3": [], "data_quality_note": "snapshot_ok_prices_technicals_only"}, {"symbol": "VCT_CFD.UK", "name": "VICTREX PLC", "sector": "", "last_price": 635.0, "change_1d_pct": -9.285714285714286, "distance_from_ma200_pct": -11.261564295119154, "distance_from_ma50_pct": -2.9181133396627645, "volatility_20d_pct": 130.4010909373053, "market_cap_usd": null, "avg_daily_volume_usd": null, "days_to_next_earnings": null, "earnings_confirmed": null, "news_sentiment_score": null, "news_headlines_last_3": [], "data_quality_note": "snapshot_ok_prices_technicals_only"}, {"symbol": "DLN_CFD.UK", "name": "DERWENT LONDON PLC", "sector": "", "last_price": 1953.0, "change_1d_pct": 10.401356698699837, "distance_from_ma200_pct": 5.069478604951705, "distance_from_ma50_pct": 12.150447212111025, "volatility_20d_pct": 115.39088732649292, "market_cap_usd": null, "avg_daily_volume_usd": null, "days_to_next_earnings": null, "earnings_confirmed": null, "news_sentiment_score": null, "news_headlines_last_3": [], "data_quality_note": "snapshot_ok_prices_technicals_only"}, {"symbol": "DOM_CFD.UK", "name": "DOMINO'S PIZZA GROUP PLC", "sector": "", "last_price": 183.13, "change_1d_pct": -0.3102885138813294, "distance_from_ma200_pct": -15.070952368916624, "distance_from_ma50_pct": 1.0777282376278619, "volatility_20d_pct": 87.92203351330001, "market_cap_usd": null, "avg_daily_volume_usd": null, "days_to_next_earnings": null, "earnings_confirmed": null, "news_sentiment_score": null, "news_headlines_last_3": [], "data_quality_note": "snapshot_ok_prices_technicals_only"}, {"symbol": "ONTEX_CFD.BE", "name": "Ontex Group NV", "sector": "", "last_price": 3.095, "change_1d_pct": -8.970588235294109, "distance_from_ma200_pct": -45.776050709466496, "distance_from_ma50_pct": -29.82368626312829, "volatility_20d_pct": 108.69637170664194, "market_cap_usd": null, "avg_daily_volume_usd": null, "days_to_next_earnings": null, "earnings_confirmed": null, "news_sentiment_score": null, "news_headlines_last_3": [], "data_quality_note": "snapshot_ok_prices_technicals_only"}, {"symbol": "DHER_CFD.DE", "name": "DELIVERY HERO SE", "sector": "", "last_price": 16.289, "change_1d_pct": 0.10447394296952961, "distance_from_ma200_pct": -26.599410956780655, "distance_from_ma50_pct": -15.23633290593308, "volatility_20d_pct": 143.60854945931146, "market_cap_usd": null, "avg_daily_volume_usd": null, "days_to_next_earnings": null, "earnings_confirmed": null, "news_sentiment_score": null, "news_headlines_last_3": [], "data_quality_note": "snapshot_ok_prices_technicals_only"}, {"symbol": "IEP_CFD.BE", "name": "IEP Invest NV", "sector": "", "last_price": 5.4, "change_1d_pct": 0.0, "distance_from_ma200_pct": 0.9951765451794659, "distance_from_ma50_pct": 0.5657756042326989, "volatility_20d_pct": 138.39532879660115, "market_cap_usd": null, "avg_daily_volume_usd": null, "days_to_next_earnings": null, "earnings_confirmed": null, "news_sentiment_score": null, "news_headlines_last_3": [], "data_quality_note": "snapshot_ok_prices_technicals_only"}, {"symbol": "BIG_CFD.FR", "name": "Bigben Interactive", "sector": "", "last_price": 0.29, "change_1d_pct": 7.011070110701101, "distance_from_ma200_pct": -71.8461635543733, "distance_from_ma50_pct": -47.19976695069551, "volatility_20d_pct": 208.2394066644476, "market_cap_usd": null, "avg_daily_volume_usd": null, "days_to_next_earnings": null, "earnings_confirmed": null, "news_sentiment_score": null, "news_headlines_last_3": [], "data_quality_note": "snapshot_ok_prices_technicals_only"}, {"symbol": "OCDO_CFD.UK", "name": "OCADO GROUP PLC", "sector": "", "last_price": 191.8, "change_1d_pct": -27.731725697061027, "distance_from_ma200_pct": -25.425914067168765, "distance_from_ma50_pct": -16.54505218327368, "volatility_20d_pct": 249.00720326714767, "market_cap_usd": null, "avg_daily_volume_usd": null, "days_to_next_earnings": null, "earnings_confirmed": null, "news_sentiment_score": null, "news_headlines_last_3": [], "data_quality_note": "snapshot_ok_prices_technicals_only"}, {"symbol": "ESNT_CFD.UK", "name": "ESSENTRA PLC", "sector": "", "last_price": 90.1, "change_1d_pct": -10.61507936507937, "distance_from_ma200_pct": -10.657490467074904, "distance_from_ma50_pct": -8.545188421272742, "volatility_20d_pct": 126.22890829663649, "market_cap_usd": null, "avg_daily_volume_usd": null, "days_to_next_earnings": null, "earnings_confirmed": null, "news_sentiment_score": null, "news_headlines_last_3": [], "data_quality_note": "snapshot_ok_prices_technicals_only"}, {"symbol": "CMCX_CFD.UK", "name": "CMC MARKETS PLC", "sector": "", "last_price": 336.5, "change_1d_pct": 6.487341772151889, "distance_from_ma200_pct": 33.727269096422944, "distance_from_ma50_pct": 13.399699398122245, "volatility_20d_pct": 207.2492443353413, "market_cap_usd": null, "avg_daily_volume_usd": null, "days_to_next_earnings": null, "earnings_confirmed": null, "news_sentiment_score": null, "news_headlines_last_3": [], "data_quality_note": "snapshot_ok_prices_technicals_only"}, {"symbol": "MC_CFD.FR", "name": "LVMH Moet Hennessy Louis Vuitton", "sector": "", "last_price": 499.65, "change_1d_pct": 6.89987163029524, "distance_from_ma200_pct": -8.075237598557983, "distance_from_ma50_pct": -1.441139046521478, "volatility_20d_pct": 62.212159342265885, "market_cap_usd": null, "avg_daily_volume_usd": null, "days_to_next_earnings": null, "earnings_confirmed": null, "news_sentiment_score": null, "news_headlines_last_3": [], "data_quality_note": "snapshot_ok_prices_technicals_only"}, {"symbol": "GROW_CFD.UK", "name": "MOLTEN VENTURES PLC", "sector": "", "last_price": 465.0, "change_1d_pct": 1.572739187418093, "distance_from_ma200_pct": 22.569628774815076, "distance_from_ma50_pct": -4.275686024250158, "volatility_20d_pct": 115.72658030340939, "market_cap_usd": null, "avg_daily_volume_usd": null, "days_to_next_earnings": null, "earnings_confirmed": null, "news_sentiment_score": null, "news_headlines_last_3": [], "data_quality_note": "snapshot_ok_prices_technicals_only"}, {"symbol": "CDI_CFD.FR", "name": "Christian Dior SE", "sector": "", "last_price": 456.8, "change_1d_pct": 2.8828828828828756, "distance_from_ma200_pct": -10.829294200979934, "distance_from_ma50_pct": -5.120025037678855, "volatility_20d_pct": 63.182632135450476, "market_cap_usd": null, "avg_daily_volume_usd": null, "days_to_next_earnings": null, 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"earnings_confirmed": null, "news_sentiment_score": null, "news_headlines_last_3": [], "data_quality_note": "snapshot_ok_prices_technicals_only"}, {"symbol": "VIRI_CFD.FR", "name": "VIRIDIEN", "sector": "", "last_price": 127.1, "change_1d_pct": 32.258064516129025, "distance_from_ma200_pct": 86.88026988392838, "distance_from_ma50_pct": 29.097132641971314, "volatility_20d_pct": 297.97668648307325, "market_cap_usd": null, "avg_daily_volume_usd": null, "days_to_next_earnings": null, "earnings_confirmed": null, "news_sentiment_score": null, "news_headlines_last_3": [], "data_quality_note": "snapshot_ok_prices_technicals_only"}, {"symbol": "WKP_CFD.UK", "name": "WORKSPACE GROUP PLC", "sector": "", "last_price": 423.0, "change_1d_pct": 3.6764705882353033, "distance_from_ma200_pct": 1.8640028868691871, "distance_from_ma50_pct": 5.808194506978848, "volatility_20d_pct": 70.2233148398582, "market_cap_usd": null, "avg_daily_volume_usd": null, "days_to_next_earnings": null, "earnings_confirmed": null, "news_sentiment_score": null, "news_headlines_last_3": [], "data_quality_note": "snapshot_ok_prices_technicals_only"}, {"symbol": "CAP_CFD.FR", "name": "Capgemini", "sector": "", "last_price": 100.8, "change_1d_pct": -0.4444444444444473, "distance_from_ma200_pct": -20.008491162148466, "distance_from_ma50_pct": -5.819812372137334, "volatility_20d_pct": 63.88001546108049, "market_cap_usd": null, "avg_daily_volume_usd": null, "days_to_next_earnings": null, "earnings_confirmed": null, "news_sentiment_score": null, "news_headlines_last_3": [], "data_quality_note": "snapshot_ok_prices_technicals_only"}, {"symbol": "BYW6_CFD.DE", "name": "BayWa AG vNa", "sector": "", "last_price": 2.701, "change_1d_pct": 1.9245283018868076, "distance_from_ma200_pct": -53.425855116646595, "distance_from_ma50_pct": -9.078056202620266, "volatility_20d_pct": 156.3034682583357, "market_cap_usd": null, "avg_daily_volume_usd": null, "days_to_next_earnings": null, "earnings_confirmed": null, "news_sentiment_score": null, "news_headlines_last_3": [], "data_quality_note": "snapshot_ok_prices_technicals_only"}, {"symbol": "ZIL2_CFD.DE", "name": "ELRINGKLINGER AG", "sector": "", "last_price": 5.47, "change_1d_pct": -0.30982321851650285, "distance_from_ma200_pct": 25.153725153725137, "distance_from_ma50_pct": 21.93925775328589, "volatility_20d_pct": 5416.880074540502, "market_cap_usd": null, "avg_daily_volume_usd": null, "days_to_next_earnings": null, "earnings_confirmed": null, "news_sentiment_score": null, "news_headlines_last_3": [], "data_quality_note": "snapshot_ok_prices_technicals_only"}, {"symbol": "SMIN_CFD.UK", "name": "SMITHS GROUP PLC", "sector": "", "last_price": 2410.0, "change_1d_pct": -2.900886381950041, "distance_from_ma200_pct": 8.724723729236384, "distance_from_ma50_pct": -1.2150629239554345, "volatility_20d_pct": 88.62035790812207, "market_cap_usd": null, "avg_daily_volume_usd": null, "days_to_next_earnings": null, "earnings_confirmed": null, "news_sentiment_score": null, "news_headlines_last_3": [], "data_quality_note": "snapshot_ok_prices_technicals_only"}, {"symbol": "BPOST_CFD.BE", "name": "Bpost", "sector": "", "last_price": 2.245, "change_1d_pct": 0.0, "distance_from_ma200_pct": null, "distance_from_ma50_pct": 7.002592846793276, "volatility_20d_pct": 2622.8624681176075, "market_cap_usd": null, "avg_daily_volume_usd": null, "days_to_next_earnings": null, "earnings_confirmed": null, "news_sentiment_score": null, "news_headlines_last_3": [], "data_quality_note": "snapshot_ok_prices_technicals_only"}, {"symbol": "DOCS_CFD.UK", "name": "DR. MARTENS PLC", "sector": "", "last_price": 64.5, "change_1d_pct": -3.5153328347045543, "distance_from_ma200_pct": -14.829841246785492, "distance_from_ma50_pct": -11.320702834987761, "volatility_20d_pct": 128.30568371469687, "market_cap_usd": null, "avg_daily_volume_usd": null, "days_to_next_earnings": null, "earnings_confirmed": null, "news_sentiment_score": null, "news_headlines_last_3": [], "data_quality_note": "snapshot_ok_prices_technicals_only"}, {"symbol": "VXXB_CFD.ETF", "name": "IPATH SERIES B S&P 500 VIX", "sector": "", "last_price": 32.36, "change_1d_pct": -9.024458813606973, "distance_from_ma200_pct": -6.246921735301103, "distance_from_ma50_pct": 3.784477228992933, "volatility_20d_pct": 180.71815564662478, "market_cap_usd": null, "avg_daily_volume_usd": null, "days_to_next_earnings": null, "earnings_confirmed": null, "news_sentiment_score": null, "news_headlines_last_3": [], "data_quality_note": "snapshot_ok_prices_technicals_only"}, {"symbol": "CRDA_CFD.UK", "name": "CRODA INTERNATIONAL PLC", "sector": "", "last_price": 2839.0, "change_1d_pct": -0.28099754127151044, "distance_from_ma200_pct": null, "distance_from_ma50_pct": -0.572261096752058, "volatility_20d_pct": 5232.645582727379, "market_cap_usd": null, "avg_daily_volume_usd": null, "days_to_next_earnings": null, "earnings_confirmed": null, "news_sentiment_score": null, "news_headlines_last_3": [], "data_quality_note": "snapshot_ok_prices_technicals_only"}, {"symbol": "DEZ_CFD.DE", "name": "Deutz AG", "sector": "", "last_price": 9.345, "change_1d_pct": 7.0079010649261475, "distance_from_ma200_pct": 2.2851901552283227, "distance_from_ma50_pct": -11.038465273110464, "volatility_20d_pct": 124.59838290952874, "market_cap_usd": null, "avg_daily_volume_usd": null, "days_to_next_earnings": null, "earnings_confirmed": null, "news_sentiment_score": null, "news_headlines_last_3": [], "data_quality_note": "snapshot_ok_prices_technicals_only"}, {"symbol": "HUBS_CFD.US", "name": "HubSpot Inc", "sector": "", "last_price": 221.6, "change_1d_pct": -9.606363450948407, "distance_from_ma200_pct": -44.79525916832166, "distance_from_ma50_pct": -12.659211694206352, "volatility_20d_pct": 129.34490404762084, "market_cap_usd": null, "avg_daily_volume_usd": null, "days_to_next_earnings": null, "earnings_confirmed": null, "news_sentiment_score": null, "news_headlines_last_3": [], "data_quality_note": "snapshot_ok_prices_technicals_only"}, {"symbol": "ATG_CFD.UK", "name": "AUCTION TECHNOLOGY GROUP", "sector": "", "last_price": 313.0, "change_1d_pct": 0.3205128205128194, "distance_from_ma200_pct": null, "distance_from_ma50_pct": 0.8343803356850588, "volatility_20d_pct": 2871.9337920464413, "market_cap_usd": null, "avg_daily_volume_usd": null, "days_to_next_earnings": null, "earnings_confirmed": null, "news_sentiment_score": null, "news_headlines_last_3": [], "data_quality_note": "snapshot_ok_prices_technicals_only"}, {"symbol": "BOSS_CFD.DE", "name": "Hugo Boss AG", "sector": "", "last_price": 36.365, "change_1d_pct": 0.9858372674257154, "distance_from_ma200_pct": -5.824458759322382, "distance_from_ma50_pct": 0.09126980631866122, "volatility_20d_pct": 44.082244703993894, "market_cap_usd": null, "avg_daily_volume_usd": null, "days_to_next_earnings": null, "earnings_confirmed": null, "news_sentiment_score": null, "news_headlines_last_3": [], "data_quality_note": "snapshot_ok_prices_technicals_only"}, {"symbol": "CLARI_CFD.FR", "name": "Clariane SE", "sector": "", "last_price": 3.874, "change_1d_pct": -2.4181360201511404, "distance_from_ma200_pct": null, "distance_from_ma50_pct": 0.9358846089711603, "volatility_20d_pct": 3109.006288666479, "market_cap_usd": null, "avg_daily_volume_usd": null, "days_to_next_earnings": null, "earnings_confirmed": null, "news_sentiment_score": null, "news_headlines_last_3": [], "data_quality_note": "snapshot_ok_prices_technicals_only"}, {"symbol": "COTY_CFD.US", "name": "Coty Inc", "sector": "", "last_price": 2.65, "change_1d_pct": -0.7490636704119868, "distance_from_ma200_pct": null, "distance_from_ma50_pct": -12.425644415069403, "volatility_20d_pct": 7661.46272234243, "market_cap_usd": null, "avg_daily_volume_usd": null, "days_to_next_earnings": null, "earnings_confirmed": null, "news_sentiment_score": null, "news_headlines_last_3": [], "data_quality_note": "snapshot_ok_prices_technicals_only"}, {"symbol": "VTY_CFD.UK", "name": "VISTRY GROUP PLC", "sector": "", "last_price": 336.5, "change_1d_pct": -52.24240703945502, "distance_from_ma200_pct": -45.76092188057602, "distance_from_ma50_pct": -43.644091924608695, "volatility_20d_pct": 220.52645545975528, "market_cap_usd": null, "avg_daily_volume_usd": null, "days_to_next_earnings": null, "earnings_confirmed": null, "news_sentiment_score": null, "news_headlines_last_3": [], "data_quality_note": "snapshot_ok_prices_technicals_only"}, {"symbol": "MDV_CFD.PL", "name": "Modivo S.A.", "sector": "", "last_price": 86.3, "change_1d_pct": -5.621172353455817, "distance_from_ma200_pct": -41.47482094889456, "distance_from_ma50_pct": -17.96468774299278, "volatility_20d_pct": 81.26543963924402, "market_cap_usd": null, "avg_daily_volume_usd": null, "days_to_next_earnings": null, "earnings_confirmed": null, "news_sentiment_score": null, "news_headlines_last_3": [], "data_quality_note": "snapshot_ok_prices_technicals_only"}, {"symbol": "HMSO_CFD.UK", "name": "HAMMERSON PLC", "sector": "", "last_price": 355.4, "change_1d_pct": 14.129736673089276, "distance_from_ma200_pct": 22.516025502913806, "distance_from_ma50_pct": 10.006914897239172, "volatility_20d_pct": 87.54938293511039, "market_cap_usd": null, "avg_daily_volume_usd": null, "days_to_next_earnings": null, "earnings_confirmed": null, "news_sentiment_score": null, "news_headlines_last_3": [], "data_quality_note": "snapshot_ok_prices_technicals_only"}, {"symbol": "SGL_CFD.DE", "name": "SGL Carbon SE", "sector": "", "last_price": 3.545, "change_1d_pct": 5.663189269746649, "distance_from_ma200_pct": 3.398741422935836, "distance_from_ma50_pct": -9.100699501528242, "volatility_20d_pct": 92.29220096966039, "market_cap_usd": null, "avg_daily_volume_usd": null, "days_to_next_earnings": null, "earnings_confirmed": null, "news_sentiment_score": null, "news_headlines_last_3": [], "data_quality_note": "snapshot_ok_prices_technicals_only"}, {"symbol": "WDAY_CFD.US", "name": "", "sector": "", "last_price": 121.19, "change_1d_pct": -7.3612597462161755, "distance_from_ma200_pct": -41.004888430649224, "distance_from_ma50_pct": -15.258385357230765, "volatility_20d_pct": 85.7260973003909, "market_cap_usd": null, "avg_daily_volume_usd": null, "days_to_next_earnings": null, "earnings_confirmed": null, "news_sentiment_score": null, "news_headlines_last_3": [], "data_quality_note": "snapshot_ok_prices_technicals_only"}, {"symbol": "OR_CFD.FR", "name": "", "sector": "", "last_price": 358.961, "change_1d_pct": 0.8742447660531116, "distance_from_ma200_pct": -4.312852384046395, "distance_from_ma50_pct": -3.76420945799798, "volatility_20d_pct": 47.03890159793636, "market_cap_usd": null, "avg_daily_volume_usd": null, "days_to_next_earnings": null, "earnings_confirmed": null, "news_sentiment_score": null, "news_headlines_last_3": [], "data_quality_note": "snapshot_ok_prices_technicals_only"}, {"symbol": "BRBY_CFD.UK", "name": "BURBERRY GROUP PLC", "sector": "", "last_price": 1090.0, "change_1d_pct": 1.5370284117373068, "distance_from_ma200_pct": null, "distance_from_ma50_pct": -10.223781637880636, "volatility_20d_pct": 3625.500236594713, "market_cap_usd": null, "avg_daily_volume_usd": null, "days_to_next_earnings": null, "earnings_confirmed": null, "news_sentiment_score": null, "news_headlines_last_3": [], "data_quality_note": "snapshot_ok_prices_technicals_only"}], "output_schema": {"selected_stocks": [{"symbol": "string", "mean_reversion_score": "integer 0-100", "selection_reason": "short, concrete, indicator-based"}], "rejected_common_reasons": ["string"]}}
Output JSON
{
  "raw": {
    "id": "gen-1775738074-rMn4Q10c2SNM4SL8hBiP",
    "model": "moonshotai/kimi-k2-thinking-20251106",
    "usage": {
      "cost": 0.015163,
      "is_byok": false,
      "cost_details": {
        "upstream_inference_cost": 0.015163,
        "upstream_inference_prompt_cost": 0.005163,
        "upstream_inference_completions_cost": 0.01
      },
      "total_tokens": 12605,
      "prompt_tokens": 8605,
      "completion_tokens": 4000,
      "prompt_tokens_details": {
        "audio_tokens": 0,
        "video_tokens": 0,
        "cached_tokens": 0,
        "cache_write_tokens": 0
      },
      "completion_tokens_details": {
        "audio_tokens": 0,
        "image_tokens": 0,
        "reasoning_tokens": 2965
      }
    },
    "object": "chat.completion",
    "choices": [
      {
        "index": 0,
        "message": {
          "role": "assistant",
          "content": null,
          "refusal": null,
          "reasoning": "  The user wants me to perform a stage 1 universe scan for the EU region using the \"meanrev-v1\" strategy. I need to select exactly 5 candidates for short-term mean reversion trading (2-10 trading days horizon).\n\nLet me analyze the constraints and rules:\n1. Select exactly 5 candidates\n2. Avoid earnings within 5 trading days (if known) - but all earnings data is null, so this constraint doesn't apply\n3. Avoid highly binary/event-driven moves (if known) - no news data available, so I have to infer from price action\n4. Avoid sector concentration: max 1 per sector unless clearly justified - but sector data is empty for all stocks, so I cannot apply this constraint meaningfully\n5. Focus on liquid equities - but avg_daily_volume_usd is null for all, so I have to infer from price and volatility\n6. Short-term mean reversion target - looking for oversold/overbought conditions that might snap back\n\nKey metrics to consider for mean reversion:\n- Large 1-day change (both positive and negative can be candidates)\n- Distance from moving averages (MA50 and MA200)\n- Volatility (20d)\n- We want stocks that have moved significantly and might revert\n\nLet me evaluate each stock:\n\n1. **HAS_CFD.UK (HAYS PLC)**: -17.2% down, -26.5% from MA200, -12.9% from MA50, high vol 118%. Looks oversold, good candidate.\n\n2. **MDM_CFD.FR (Maisons Du Monde)**: -23.8% down, -52.2% from MA200, -33.4% from MA50, EXTREMELY high vol 18104% (likely data error or very low price). Price is 0.881, very low. Might be too illiquid or problematic.\n\n3. **MGNS_CFD.UK (MORGAN SINDALL)**: +19.6% up, +32% from MA200, +15.6% from MA50, vol 90%. Overbought, potential short candidate, but strategy might be long-only? The description says \"mean reversion\" but doesn't specify direction. Looking at typical mean reversion strategies, they often look for oversold conditions to buy. But it can be both ways. Let me check the strategy name: \"Two-Stage LLM Mean-Reversion\" - likely looking for both long and short opportunities. However, given the constraints and typical implementation, I'll focus on oversold candidates first.\n\n4. **GEN_CFD.UK (GENUIT GROUP)**: +13.7% up, +1.1% from MA200, +7.5% from MA50, vol 113%. Mildly overbought.\n\n5. **BOY_CFD.UK (BODYCOTE)**: +24.2% up, +28.7% from MA200, +18.6% from MA50, vol 103%. Strongly overbought.\n\n6. **CRST_CFD.UK (CREST NICHOLSON)**: -12.8% down, -28.2% from MA200, -15.8% from MA50, vol 236%. Oversold, good candidate.\n\n7. **PAGE_CFD.UK (PAGEGROUP)**: -36.8% down, -40.6% from MA200, -31.7% from MA50, vol 193%. Very oversold, good candidate.\n\n8. **FGP_CFD.UK (FIRSTGROUP)**: +1.3% up, -4% from MA200, +1.7% from MA50, vol 88%. Not a significant move.\n\n9. **ICG_CFD.UK**: -15.2% down, -16.2% from MA200, -12.3% from MA50, vol 73%. Oversold, decent candidate.\n\n10. **SHC_CFD.UK**: -2.9% down, +0.3% from MA200, -0.8% from MA50, vol 64%. Not significant.\n\n11. **PAG_CFD.UK**: -3.4% down, -1.3% from MA200, +0.7% from MA50, vol 72%. Not significant.\n\n12. **CBG_CFD.UK**: -26.6% down, -13.4% from MA200, -22.1% from MA50, vol 169%. Very oversold, good candidate.\n\n13. **VCT_CFD.UK**: -9.3% down, -11.3% from MA200, -2.9% from MA50, vol 130%. Oversold.\n\n14. **DLN_CFD.UK**: +10.4% up, +5.1% from MA200, +12.2% from MA50, vol 115%. Overbought.\n\n15. **DOM_CFD.UK**: -0.3% down, -15.1% from MA200, +1.1% from MA50, vol 88%. Mildly oversold on longer term.\n\n16. **ONTEX_CFD.BE**: -9% down, -45.8% from MA200, -29.8% from MA50, vol 109%. Very oversold, but low price 3.095 might indicate liquidity issues.\n\n17. **DHER_CFD.DE**: +0.1% up, -26.6% from MA200, -15.2% from MA50, vol 144%. Oversold on longer timeframe but flat today.\n\n18. **IEP_CFD.BE**: 0% change, +1% from MA200, +0.6% from MA50, vol 138%. No movement.\n\n19. **BIG_CFD.FR**: +7% up, -71.8% from MA200, -47.2% from MA50, vol 208%. Price 0.29 - extremely low, likely illiquid.\n\n20. **OCDO_CFD.UK**: -27.7% down, -25.4% from MA200, -16.5% from MA50, vol 249%. Very oversold, good candidate.\n\n21. **ESNT_CFD.UK**: -10.6% down, -10.7% from MA200, -8.5% from MA50, vol 126%. Oversold.\n\n22. **CMCX_CFD.UK**: +6.5% up, +33.7% from MA200, +13.4% from MA50, vol 207%. Overbought.\n\n23. **MC_CFD.FR**: +6.9% up, -8.1% from MA200, -1.4% from MA50, vol 62%. Mixed signals.\n\n24. **GROW_CFD.UK**: +1.6% up, +22.6% from MA200, -4.3% from MA50, vol 116%. Mixed.\n\n25. **CDI_CFD.FR**: +2.9% up, -10.8% from MA200, -5.1% from MA50, vol 63%. Mixed.\n\n26. **AIXA_CFD.DE**: +12.3% up, +94.3% from MA200, +30.4% from MA50, vol 121%. Strongly overbought.\n\n27. **SPX_CFD.UK**: -0.3% down, +4.6% from MA200, -2.2% from MA50, vol 124%. Not significant.\n\n28. **VIRI_CFD.FR**: +32.3% up, +86.9% from MA200, +29.1% from MA50, vol 298%. Extremely overbought.\n\n29. **WKP_CFD.UK**: +3.7% up, +1.9% from MA200, +5.8% from MA50, vol 70%. Mild.\n\n30. **CAP_CFD.FR**: -0.4% down, -20% from MA200, -5.8% from MA50, vol 64%. Oversold on longer term.\n\n31. **BYW6_CFD.DE**: +1.9% up, -53.4% from MA200, -9.1% from MA50, vol 156%. Oversold on longer term.\n\n32. **ZIL2_CFD.DE**: -0.3% down, +25.2% from MA200, +21.9% from MA50, EXTREME vol 5416% (data issue). Price 5.47.\n\n33. **SMIN_CFD.UK**: -2.9% down, +8.7% from MA200, -1.2% from MA50, vol 89%. Mixed.\n\n34. **BPOST_CFD.BE**: 0% change, +7% from MA50, vol 2622% (data issue). Price 2.245.\n\n35. **DOCS_CFD.UK**: -3.5% down, -14.8% from MA200, -11.3% from MA50, vol 128%. Oversold.\n\n36. **VXXB_CFD.ETF**: -9% down, -6.2% from MA200, +3.8% from MA50, vol 181%. This is a VIX ETF, not a stock. Should avoid ETFs for equity mean reversion.\n\n37. **CRDA_CFD.UK**: -0.3% down, null from MA200, -0.6% from MA50, EXTREME vol 5232% (data issue). Price 2839.\n\n38. **DEZ_CFD.DE**: +7% up, +2.3% from MA200, -11% from MA50, vol 124%. Mixed.\n\n39. **HUBS_CFD.US**: -9.6% down, -44.8% from MA200, -12.7% from MA50, vol 129%. Very oversold, but it's a US stock in EU scan? Symbol says .US. Should probably avoid as region is EU.\n\n40. **ATG_CFD.UK**: +0.3% up, null from MA200, +0.8% from MA50, EXTREME vol 2871% (data issue).\n\n41. **BOSS_CFD.DE**: +1% up, -5.8% from MA200, +0.1% from MA50, vol 44%. Low vol, not significant.\n\n42. **CLARI_CFD.FR**: -2.4% down, null from MA200, +0.9% from MA50, EXTREME vol 3109% (data issue). Price 3.874.\n\n43. **COTY_CFD.US**: -0.7% down, null from MA200, -12.4% from MA50, EXTREME vol 7661% (data issue). US stock.\n\n44. **VTY_CFD.UK**: -52.2% down, -45.8% from MA200, -43.6% from MA50, vol 220%. EXTREMELY oversold but huge drop might be event-driven. Price 336.5.\n\n45. **MDV_CFD.PL**: -5.6% down, -41.5% from MA200, -18% from MA50, vol 81%. Oversold. Polish stock.\n\n46. **HMSO_CFD.UK**: +14.1% up, +22.5% from MA200, +10% from MA50, vol 87%. Overbought.\n\n47. **SGL_CFD.DE**: +5.7% up, +3.4% from MA200, -9.1% from MA50, vol 92%. Mixed.\n\n48. **WDAY_CFD.US**: -7.4% down, -41% from MA200, -15.3% from MA50, vol 86%. Oversold but US stock.\n\n49. **OR_CFD.FR**: +0.9% up, -4.3% from MA200, -3.8% from MA50, vol 47%. Not significant.\n\n50. **BRBY_CFD.UK**: +1.5% up, null from MA200, -10.2% from MA50, EXTREME vol 3625% (data issue).\n\nNow I need to select exactly 5 candidates. I should focus on:\n- Significant 1-day moves (large absolute change)\n- Significant distance from moving averages\n- Reasonable volatility (not extreme data errors)\n- Avoid extremely low-priced stocks (liquidity concerns)\n- Avoid ETFs and non-EU stocks\n- Avoid stocks with extreme volatility readings that look like data errors\n\nGood candidates for oversold (potential long):\n- HAS_CFD.UK: -17.2%, solid price level\n- PAGE_CFD.UK: -36.8%, very strong signal\n- CBG_CFD.UK: -26.6%, strong signal\n- OCDO_CFD.UK: -27.7%, strong signal\n- CRST_CFD.UK: -12.8%, decent signal\n- ICG_CFD.UK: -15.2%, decent signal\n- VCT_CFD.UK: -9.3%, moderate\n\nGood candidates for overbought (potential short):\n- MGNS_CFD.UK: +19.6%\n- BOY_CFD.UK: +24.2%\n- VIRI_CFD.FR: +32.3% (but vol 298% is high)\n- AIXA_CFD.DE: +12.3% (but +94% from MA200 seems extended)\n\nGiven the strategy is \"mean-reversion\" and typically these strategies focus on oversold conditions for long positions, I'll prioritize the most oversold candidates with:\n1. Large negative 1-day change\n2. Large negative distance from MAs\n3. Reasonable price level (not too low)\n4. Volatility not indicating data errors\n\nLet me filter out problematic stocks:\n- MDM_CFD.FR: price 0.881, vol 18104% - reject (illiquid, data issues)\n- BIG_CFD.FR: price 0.29 - reject (illiquid)\n- ONTEX_CFD.BE: price 3.095 - borderline but might be ok\n- ZIL2_CFD.DE: vol 5416% - reject (data issue)\n- BPOST_CFD.BE: vol 2622% - reject (data issue)\n- ATG_CFD.UK: vol 2871% - reject (data issue)\n- CLARI_CFD.FR: vol 3109% - reject (data issue)\n- COTY_CFD.US: vol 7661%, US stock - reject\n- CRDA_CFD.UK: vol 5232% - reject (data issue)\n- BRBY_CFD.UK: vol 3625% - reject (data issue)\n- VXXB_CFD.ETF: ETF - reject\n- HUBS_CFD.US: US stock - reject\n- WDAY_CFD.US: US stock - reject\n\nRemaining strong oversold candidates:\n1. **PAGE_CFD.UK**: -36.8% change, -40.6% from MA200, -31.7% from MA50, vol 193%, price 152.7 - EXCELLENT\n2. **OCDO_CFD.UK**: -27.7% change, -25.4% from MA200, -16.5% from MA50, vol 249%, price 191.8 - EXCELLENT\n3. **CBG_CFD.UK**: -26.6% change, -13.4% from MA200, -22.1% from MA50, vol 169%, price 372.74 - EXCELLENT\n4. **HAS_CFD.UK**: -17.2% change, -26.5% from MA200, -12.9% from MA50, vol 118%, price 47.66 - Good\n5. **CRST_CFD.UK**: -12.8% change, -28.2% from MA200, -15.8% from MA50, vol 236%, price 118.83 - Good\n6. **ICG_CFD.UK**: -15.2% change, -16.2% from MA200, -12.3% from MA50, vol 73%, price 1693 - Good but higher price\n7. **VTY_CFD.UK**: -52.2% change, -45.8% from MA200, -43.6% from MA50, vol 220%, price 336.5 - EXTREME but might be event-driven\n\nI need to select exactly 5. Let me rank them by strength of signal:\n\nTop 5 oversold:\n1. PAGE_CFD.UK (strongest 1-day drop, far from MAs)\n2. OCDO_CFD.UK (strong drop, far from MAs)\n3. CBG_CFD.UK (strong drop, far from MAs)\n4. HAS_CFD.UK (solid drop, far from MAs)\n5. CRST_CFD.UK (good drop, far from MAs)\n\nVTY_CFD.UK has an extreme -52% drop which might be event-driven/binary risk, so I'll avoid it despite the strong technical signal.\n\nI should also consider if I need any overbought candidates for balance. But the strategy doesn't explicitly require both sides, and given the selection rules focus on \"short-term mean reversion in liquid equities\", I can select all oversold candidates expecting a bounce.\n\nLet me double-check for any constraints I might have missed:\n- Sector concentration: Cannot apply as all sectors are empty\n- Earnings: All null, so no constraint\n- Event-driven: I'm avoiding VTY due to extreme move that looks event-driven\n- Liquidity: I'm avoiding very low-priced stocks\n\nThe 5 selected are all UK stocks. Is that a problem? The region is EU which includes UK. There's no explicit constraint against having multiple from same country. Since sectors are unknown, I cannot diversify by sector, so selecting the strongest signals regardless of country seems appropriate.\n\nLet me assign mean_reversion_scores based on:\n- Magnitude of 1-day change (absolute)\n- Distance from MA50 (absolute)\n- Distance from MA200 (absolute)\n- Volatility level (higher vol gets slightly higher score for mean reversion opportunity)\n\nScoring framework (0-100):\n- 1-day change: >20% = 30 points, 15-20%",
          "reasoning_details": [
            {
              "text": "  The user wants me to perform a stage 1 universe scan for the EU region using the \"meanrev-v1\" strategy. I need to select exactly 5 candidates for short-term mean reversion trading (2-10 trading days horizon).\n\nLet me analyze the constraints and rules:\n1. Select exactly 5 candidates\n2. Avoid earnings within 5 trading days (if known) - but all earnings data is null, so this constraint doesn't apply\n3. Avoid highly binary/event-driven moves (if known) - no news data available, so I have to infer from price action\n4. Avoid sector concentration: max 1 per sector unless clearly justified - but sector data is empty for all stocks, so I cannot apply this constraint meaningfully\n5. Focus on liquid equities - but avg_daily_volume_usd is null for all, so I have to infer from price and volatility\n6. Short-term mean reversion target - looking for oversold/overbought conditions that might snap back\n\nKey metrics to consider for mean reversion:\n- Large 1-day change (both positive and negative can be candidates)\n- Distance from moving averages (MA50 and MA200)\n- Volatility (20d)\n- We want stocks that have moved significantly and might revert\n\nLet me evaluate each stock:\n\n1. **HAS_CFD.UK (HAYS PLC)**: -17.2% down, -26.5% from MA200, -12.9% from MA50, high vol 118%. Looks oversold, good candidate.\n\n2. **MDM_CFD.FR (Maisons Du Monde)**: -23.8% down, -52.2% from MA200, -33.4% from MA50, EXTREMELY high vol 18104% (likely data error or very low price). Price is 0.881, very low. Might be too illiquid or problematic.\n\n3. **MGNS_CFD.UK (MORGAN SINDALL)**: +19.6% up, +32% from MA200, +15.6% from MA50, vol 90%. Overbought, potential short candidate, but strategy might be long-only? The description says \"mean reversion\" but doesn't specify direction. Looking at typical mean reversion strategies, they often look for oversold conditions to buy. But it can be both ways. Let me check the strategy name: \"Two-Stage LLM Mean-Reversion\" - likely looking for both long and short opportunities. However, given the constraints and typical implementation, I'll focus on oversold candidates first.\n\n4. **GEN_CFD.UK (GENUIT GROUP)**: +13.7% up, +1.1% from MA200, +7.5% from MA50, vol 113%. Mildly overbought.\n\n5. **BOY_CFD.UK (BODYCOTE)**: +24.2% up, +28.7% from MA200, +18.6% from MA50, vol 103%. Strongly overbought.\n\n6. **CRST_CFD.UK (CREST NICHOLSON)**: -12.8% down, -28.2% from MA200, -15.8% from MA50, vol 236%. Oversold, good candidate.\n\n7. **PAGE_CFD.UK (PAGEGROUP)**: -36.8% down, -40.6% from MA200, -31.7% from MA50, vol 193%. Very oversold, good candidate.\n\n8. **FGP_CFD.UK (FIRSTGROUP)**: +1.3% up, -4% from MA200, +1.7% from MA50, vol 88%. Not a significant move.\n\n9. **ICG_CFD.UK**: -15.2% down, -16.2% from MA200, -12.3% from MA50, vol 73%. Oversold, decent candidate.\n\n10. **SHC_CFD.UK**: -2.9% down, +0.3% from MA200, -0.8% from MA50, vol 64%. Not significant.\n\n11. **PAG_CFD.UK**: -3.4% down, -1.3% from MA200, +0.7% from MA50, vol 72%. Not significant.\n\n12. **CBG_CFD.UK**: -26.6% down, -13.4% from MA200, -22.1% from MA50, vol 169%. Very oversold, good candidate.\n\n13. **VCT_CFD.UK**: -9.3% down, -11.3% from MA200, -2.9% from MA50, vol 130%. Oversold.\n\n14. **DLN_CFD.UK**: +10.4% up, +5.1% from MA200, +12.2% from MA50, vol 115%. Overbought.\n\n15. **DOM_CFD.UK**: -0.3% down, -15.1% from MA200, +1.1% from MA50, vol 88%. Mildly oversold on longer term.\n\n16. **ONTEX_CFD.BE**: -9% down, -45.8% from MA200, -29.8% from MA50, vol 109%. Very oversold, but low price 3.095 might indicate liquidity issues.\n\n17. **DHER_CFD.DE**: +0.1% up, -26.6% from MA200, -15.2% from MA50, vol 144%. Oversold on longer timeframe but flat today.\n\n18. **IEP_CFD.BE**: 0% change, +1% from MA200, +0.6% from MA50, vol 138%. No movement.\n\n19. **BIG_CFD.FR**: +7% up, -71.8% from MA200, -47.2% from MA50, vol 208%. Price 0.29 - extremely low, likely illiquid.\n\n20. **OCDO_CFD.UK**: -27.7% down, -25.4% from MA200, -16.5% from MA50, vol 249%. Very oversold, good candidate.\n\n21. **ESNT_CFD.UK**: -10.6% down, -10.7% from MA200, -8.5% from MA50, vol 126%. Oversold.\n\n22. **CMCX_CFD.UK**: +6.5% up, +33.7% from MA200, +13.4% from MA50, vol 207%. Overbought.\n\n23. **MC_CFD.FR**: +6.9% up, -8.1% from MA200, -1.4% from MA50, vol 62%. Mixed signals.\n\n24. **GROW_CFD.UK**: +1.6% up, +22.6% from MA200, -4.3% from MA50, vol 116%. Mixed.\n\n25. **CDI_CFD.FR**: +2.9% up, -10.8% from MA200, -5.1% from MA50, vol 63%. Mixed.\n\n26. **AIXA_CFD.DE**: +12.3% up, +94.3% from MA200, +30.4% from MA50, vol 121%. Strongly overbought.\n\n27. **SPX_CFD.UK**: -0.3% down, +4.6% from MA200, -2.2% from MA50, vol 124%. Not significant.\n\n28. **VIRI_CFD.FR**: +32.3% up, +86.9% from MA200, +29.1% from MA50, vol 298%. Extremely overbought.\n\n29. **WKP_CFD.UK**: +3.7% up, +1.9% from MA200, +5.8% from MA50, vol 70%. Mild.\n\n30. **CAP_CFD.FR**: -0.4% down, -20% from MA200, -5.8% from MA50, vol 64%. Oversold on longer term.\n\n31. **BYW6_CFD.DE**: +1.9% up, -53.4% from MA200, -9.1% from MA50, vol 156%. Oversold on longer term.\n\n32. **ZIL2_CFD.DE**: -0.3% down, +25.2% from MA200, +21.9% from MA50, EXTREME vol 5416% (data issue). Price 5.47.\n\n33. **SMIN_CFD.UK**: -2.9% down, +8.7% from MA200, -1.2% from MA50, vol 89%. Mixed.\n\n34. **BPOST_CFD.BE**: 0% change, +7% from MA50, vol 2622% (data issue). Price 2.245.\n\n35. **DOCS_CFD.UK**: -3.5% down, -14.8% from MA200, -11.3% from MA50, vol 128%. Oversold.\n\n36. **VXXB_CFD.ETF**: -9% down, -6.2% from MA200, +3.8% from MA50, vol 181%. This is a VIX ETF, not a stock. Should avoid ETFs for equity mean reversion.\n\n37. **CRDA_CFD.UK**: -0.3% down, null from MA200, -0.6% from MA50, EXTREME vol 5232% (data issue). Price 2839.\n\n38. **DEZ_CFD.DE**: +7% up, +2.3% from MA200, -11% from MA50, vol 124%. Mixed.\n\n39. **HUBS_CFD.US**: -9.6% down, -44.8% from MA200, -12.7% from MA50, vol 129%. Very oversold, but it's a US stock in EU scan? Symbol says .US. Should probably avoid as region is EU.\n\n40. **ATG_CFD.UK**: +0.3% up, null from MA200, +0.8% from MA50, EXTREME vol 2871% (data issue).\n\n41. **BOSS_CFD.DE**: +1% up, -5.8% from MA200, +0.1% from MA50, vol 44%. Low vol, not significant.\n\n42. **CLARI_CFD.FR**: -2.4% down, null from MA200, +0.9% from MA50, EXTREME vol 3109% (data issue). Price 3.874.\n\n43. **COTY_CFD.US**: -0.7% down, null from MA200, -12.4% from MA50, EXTREME vol 7661% (data issue). US stock.\n\n44. **VTY_CFD.UK**: -52.2% down, -45.8% from MA200, -43.6% from MA50, vol 220%. EXTREMELY oversold but huge drop might be event-driven. Price 336.5.\n\n45. **MDV_CFD.PL**: -5.6% down, -41.5% from MA200, -18% from MA50, vol 81%. Oversold. Polish stock.\n\n46. **HMSO_CFD.UK**: +14.1% up, +22.5% from MA200, +10% from MA50, vol 87%. Overbought.\n\n47. **SGL_CFD.DE**: +5.7% up, +3.4% from MA200, -9.1% from MA50, vol 92%. Mixed.\n\n48. **WDAY_CFD.US**: -7.4% down, -41% from MA200, -15.3% from MA50, vol 86%. Oversold but US stock.\n\n49. **OR_CFD.FR**: +0.9% up, -4.3% from MA200, -3.8% from MA50, vol 47%. Not significant.\n\n50. **BRBY_CFD.UK**: +1.5% up, null from MA200, -10.2% from MA50, EXTREME vol 3625% (data issue).\n\nNow I need to select exactly 5 candidates. I should focus on:\n- Significant 1-day moves (large absolute change)\n- Significant distance from moving averages\n- Reasonable volatility (not extreme data errors)\n- Avoid extremely low-priced stocks (liquidity concerns)\n- Avoid ETFs and non-EU stocks\n- Avoid stocks with extreme volatility readings that look like data errors\n\nGood candidates for oversold (potential long):\n- HAS_CFD.UK: -17.2%, solid price level\n- PAGE_CFD.UK: -36.8%, very strong signal\n- CBG_CFD.UK: -26.6%, strong signal\n- OCDO_CFD.UK: -27.7%, strong signal\n- CRST_CFD.UK: -12.8%, decent signal\n- ICG_CFD.UK: -15.2%, decent signal\n- VCT_CFD.UK: -9.3%, moderate\n\nGood candidates for overbought (potential short):\n- MGNS_CFD.UK: +19.6%\n- BOY_CFD.UK: +24.2%\n- VIRI_CFD.FR: +32.3% (but vol 298% is high)\n- AIXA_CFD.DE: +12.3% (but +94% from MA200 seems extended)\n\nGiven the strategy is \"mean-reversion\" and typically these strategies focus on oversold conditions for long positions, I'll prioritize the most oversold candidates with:\n1. Large negative 1-day change\n2. Large negative distance from MAs\n3. Reasonable price level (not too low)\n4. Volatility not indicating data errors\n\nLet me filter out problematic stocks:\n- MDM_CFD.FR: price 0.881, vol 18104% - reject (illiquid, data issues)\n- BIG_CFD.FR: price 0.29 - reject (illiquid)\n- ONTEX_CFD.BE: price 3.095 - borderline but might be ok\n- ZIL2_CFD.DE: vol 5416% - reject (data issue)\n- BPOST_CFD.BE: vol 2622% - reject (data issue)\n- ATG_CFD.UK: vol 2871% - reject (data issue)\n- CLARI_CFD.FR: vol 3109% - reject (data issue)\n- COTY_CFD.US: vol 7661%, US stock - reject\n- CRDA_CFD.UK: vol 5232% - reject (data issue)\n- BRBY_CFD.UK: vol 3625% - reject (data issue)\n- VXXB_CFD.ETF: ETF - reject\n- HUBS_CFD.US: US stock - reject\n- WDAY_CFD.US: US stock - reject\n\nRemaining strong oversold candidates:\n1. **PAGE_CFD.UK**: -36.8% change, -40.6% from MA200, -31.7% from MA50, vol 193%, price 152.7 - EXCELLENT\n2. **OCDO_CFD.UK**: -27.7% change, -25.4% from MA200, -16.5% from MA50, vol 249%, price 191.8 - EXCELLENT\n3. **CBG_CFD.UK**: -26.6% change, -13.4% from MA200, -22.1% from MA50, vol 169%, price 372.74 - EXCELLENT\n4. **HAS_CFD.UK**: -17.2% change, -26.5% from MA200, -12.9% from MA50, vol 118%, price 47.66 - Good\n5. **CRST_CFD.UK**: -12.8% change, -28.2% from MA200, -15.8% from MA50, vol 236%, price 118.83 - Good\n6. **ICG_CFD.UK**: -15.2% change, -16.2% from MA200, -12.3% from MA50, vol 73%, price 1693 - Good but higher price\n7. **VTY_CFD.UK**: -52.2% change, -45.8% from MA200, -43.6% from MA50, vol 220%, price 336.5 - EXTREME but might be event-driven\n\nI need to select exactly 5. Let me rank them by strength of signal:\n\nTop 5 oversold:\n1. PAGE_CFD.UK (strongest 1-day drop, far from MAs)\n2. OCDO_CFD.UK (strong drop, far from MAs)\n3. CBG_CFD.UK (strong drop, far from MAs)\n4. HAS_CFD.UK (solid drop, far from MAs)\n5. CRST_CFD.UK (good drop, far from MAs)\n\nVTY_CFD.UK has an extreme -52% drop which might be event-driven/binary risk, so I'll avoid it despite the strong technical signal.\n\nI should also consider if I need any overbought candidates for balance. But the strategy doesn't explicitly require both sides, and given the selection rules focus on \"short-term mean reversion in liquid equities\", I can select all oversold candidates expecting a bounce.\n\nLet me double-check for any constraints I might have missed:\n- Sector concentration: Cannot apply as all sectors are empty\n- Earnings: All null, so no constraint\n- Event-driven: I'm avoiding VTY due to extreme move that looks event-driven\n- Liquidity: I'm avoiding very low-priced stocks\n\nThe 5 selected are all UK stocks. Is that a problem? The region is EU which includes UK. There's no explicit constraint against having multiple from same country. Since sectors are unknown, I cannot diversify by sector, so selecting the strongest signals regardless of country seems appropriate.\n\nLet me assign mean_reversion_scores based on:\n- Magnitude of 1-day change (absolute)\n- Distance from MA50 (absolute)\n- Distance from MA200 (absolute)\n- Volatility level (higher vol gets slightly higher score for mean reversion opportunity)\n\nScoring framework (0-100):\n- 1-day change: >20% = 30 points, 15-20%",
              "type": "reasoning.text",
              "index": 0,
              "format": "unknown"
            }
          ]
        },
        "logprobs": null,
        "finish_reason": "length",
        "native_finish_reason": "length"
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    "created": 1775738074,
    "provider": "Google",
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}
#2205openroutermoonshotai/kimi-k2-thinking2026-04-09T12:35:55.486282+00:00
System prompt
You are an Arena portfolio manager. You must follow the strategy rules strictly and output ONLY valid JSON. You are NOT allowed to invent prices/fundamentals/news/earnings. If a field is null/empty, treat it as unknown. Avoid overtrading: if changes are marginal, prefer HOLD. Do not churn.
User prompt
{"task": "stage2_portfolio_management", "region": "EU", "strategy": {"key": "meanrev-v1", "name": "Two-Stage LLM Mean-Reversion (Arena v1)", "rules": {"max_positions": 10, "max_buys_per_run": 2, "avoid_overtrading": true, "max_sells_per_run": 2, "max_gross_leverage": 3.0, "fixed_position_size": 3000.0, "universe_symbols_eu": [], "universe_symbols_us": []}}, "portfolio_constraints": {"initial_equity": 10000.0, "max_positions": 10, "fixed_position_size": 3000.0, "max_gross_leverage": 3.0, "overtrading_rules": ["Max 2 SELL actions per run unless risk event forces more", "Max 2 BUY actions per run", "If no clear improvement vs current holdings, output HOLD for everything"]}, "current_portfolio": [{"symbol": "AML_CFD.UK", "qty": 82.14676889375684, "avg_price": 36.52, "last_price": 40.5, "unrealized_pnl": 326.94414019715197, "opened_at": "2026-03-09T10:19:46.508085+00:00"}, {"symbol": "AUTO_CFD.UK", "qty": 6.2137531068765535, "avg_price": 482.8, "last_price": 482.8, "unrealized_pnl": 0.0, "opened_at": "2026-03-19T18:04:14.272849+00:00"}, {"symbol": "BTRW_CFD.UK", "qty": 0.0, "avg_price": 250.8, "last_price": 263.2, "unrealized_pnl": 0.0, "opened_at": "2026-03-23T18:04:09.108429+00:00"}, {"symbol": "BYIT_CFD.UK", "qty": 0.0, "avg_price": 292.6, "last_price": 292.6, "unrealized_pnl": 0.0, "opened_at": "2026-03-01T10:30:13.622938+00:00"}, {"symbol": "CBG_CFD.UK", "qty": 8.748396127376648, "avg_price": 342.92, "last_price": 342.92, "unrealized_pnl": 0.0, "opened_at": "2026-03-18T17:58:33.497657+00:00"}, {"symbol": "CRST_CFD.UK", "qty": 0.0, "avg_price": 118.83, "last_price": 118.83, "unrealized_pnl": 0.0, "opened_at": "2026-03-23T10:03:51.599067+00:00"}, {"symbol": "FUTR_CFD.UK", "qty": 10.55594651653765, "avg_price": 284.2, "last_price": 297.6, "unrealized_pnl": 141.44968332160488, "opened_at": "2026-03-12T10:21:39.078796+00:00"}, {"symbol": "ICG_CFD.UK", "qty": 0.0, "avg_price": 1700.0, "last_price": 1693.0, "unrealized_pnl": 0.0, "opened_at": "2026-02-16T09:30:55.514112+00:00"}, {"symbol": "IWG_CFD.UK", "qty": 0.0, "avg_price": 177.0, "last_price": 172.2, "unrealized_pnl": 0.0, "opened_at": "2026-03-19T18:04:14.272849+00:00"}, {"symbol": "LRE_CFD.UK", "qty": 0.0, "avg_price": 576.0, "last_price": 593.0, "unrealized_pnl": 0.0, "opened_at": "2026-03-20T10:26:40.341409+00:00"}, {"symbol": "LSS_CFD.FR", "qty": 0.0, "avg_price": 17.72, "last_price": 16.0, "unrealized_pnl": -291.19638826185087, "opened_at": "2026-02-16T09:30:55.514112+00:00"}, {"symbol": "MCG_CFD.UK", "qty": 172.51293847038528, "avg_price": 17.39, "last_price": 20.14, "unrealized_pnl": 474.4105807935595, "opened_at": "2026-04-02T10:01:24.938009+00:00"}, {"symbol": "MSLH_CFD.UK", "qty": 21.30681818181818, "avg_price": 140.8, "last_price": 137.2, "unrealized_pnl": -76.70454545454594, "opened_at": "2026-03-26T17:55:26.602359+00:00"}, {"symbol": "OCDO_CFD.UK", "qty": 14.684287812041115, "avg_price": 204.3, "last_price": 186.0, "unrealized_pnl": -268.72246696035256, "opened_at": "2026-03-12T18:01:52.554929+00:00"}, {"symbol": "PAGE_CFD.UK", "qty": 0.0, "avg_price": 132.9, "last_price": 132.9, "unrealized_pnl": 0.0, "opened_at": "2026-02-28T10:51:05.818250+00:00"}, {"symbol": "PSN_CFD.UK", "qty": 2.6455026455026456, "avg_price": 1134.0, "last_price": 1184.5, "unrealized_pnl": 133.5978835978836, "opened_at": "2026-03-12T18:01:52.554929+00:00"}, {"symbol": "SYNT_CFD.UK", "qty": 0.0, "avg_price": 34.9, "last_price": 45.0, "unrealized_pnl": 0.0, "opened_at": "2026-03-23T10:03:51.599067+00:00"}, {"symbol": "TRST_CFD.UK", "qty": 0.0, "avg_price": 151.8, "last_price": 173.4, "unrealized_pnl": 0.0, "opened_at": "2026-03-14T10:03:26.036362+00:00"}, {"symbol": "UTG_CFD.UK", "qty": 0.0, "avg_price": 505.0, "last_price": 461.2, "unrealized_pnl": 0.0, "opened_at": "2026-03-26T17:55:26.602359+00:00"}, {"symbol": "VTY_CFD.UK", "qty": 8.85608856088561, "avg_price": 338.75, "last_price": 330.2, "unrealized_pnl": -75.71955719557207, "opened_at": "2026-03-12T10:21:39.078796+00:00"}, {"symbol": "WIZZ_CFD.UK", "qty": 0.0, "avg_price": 872.0, "last_price": 976.5, "unrealized_pnl": 0.0, "opened_at": "2026-03-09T10:19:46.508085+00:00"}, {"symbol": "WPP_CFD.UK", "qty": 0.0, "avg_price": 253.97436099095557, "last_price": 262.8, "unrealized_pnl": 0.0, "opened_at": "2026-02-28T10:51:05.818250+00:00"}], "candidates": [], "output_schema": {"actions": {"sell": [{"symbol": "string", "reason": "string"}], "hold": [{"symbol": "string", "reason": "string"}], "buy": [{"symbol": "string", "position_size": "number (currency amount)", "reason": "string"}]}, "portfolio_rationale": "string"}}
Output JSON
{
  "raw": {
    "id": "gen-1775738155-U2Dv9x0esbVLz7OSvL6F",
    "model": "moonshotai/kimi-k2-thinking-20251106",
    "usage": {
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      "is_byok": false,
      "cost_details": {
        "upstream_inference_cost": 0.0112444,
        "upstream_inference_prompt_cost": 0.0012444,
        "upstream_inference_completions_cost": 0.01
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      "total_tokens": 6074,
      "prompt_tokens": 2074,
      "completion_tokens": 4000,
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        "reasoning_tokens": 3142
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    "object": "chat.completion",
    "choices": [
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        "message": {
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          "refusal": null,
          "reasoning": "  The user wants me to act as an Arena portfolio manager following the \"meanrev-v1\" strategy. I need to analyze the current portfolio and decide on actions (BUY, SELL, HOLD) based on mean-reversion principles.\n\nLet me first understand the strategy:\n- Max positions: 10\n- Max buys per run: 2\n- Max sells per run: 2\n- Avoid overtrading\n- Max gross leverage: 3.0\n- Fixed position size: 3000.0\n- Universe symbols: empty (so I need to work with what's provided)\n\nCurrent portfolio analysis:\nI have 21 symbols listed, but many have qty=0 (effectively not holding). Let me count actual positions:\n- AML_CFD.UK: 82.15 shares @ 36.52, last 40.5 (+11%)\n- AUTO_CFD.UK: 6.21 shares @ 482.8, last 482.8 (0%)\n- BTRW_CFD.UK: 0 shares\n- BYIT_CFD.UK: 0 shares\n- CBG_CFD.UK: 8.75 shares @ 342.92, last 342.92 (0%)\n- CRST_CFD.UK: 0 shares\n- FUTR_CFD.UK: 10.56 shares @ 284.2, last 297.6 (+4.7%)\n- ICG_CFD.UK: 0 shares\n- IWG_CFD.UK: 0 shares\n- LRE_CFD.UK: 0 shares\n- LSS_CFD.FR: 0 shares (but shows negative PnL - this is weird)\n- MCG_CFD.UK: 172.51 shares @ 17.39, last 20.14 (+15.8%)\n- MSLH_CFD.UK: 21.31 shares @ 140.8, last 137.2 (-2.6%)\n- OCDO_CFD.UK: 14.68 shares @ 204.3, last 186.0 (-9.0%)\n- PAGE_CFD.UK: 0 shares\n- PSN_CFD.UK: 2.65 shares @ 1134.0, last 1184.5 (+4.5%)\n- SYNT_CFD.UK: 0 shares\n- TRST_CFD.UK: 0 shares\n- UTG_CFD.UK: 0 shares\n- VTY_CFD.UK: 8.86 shares @ 338.75, last 330.2 (-2.5%)\n- WIZZ_CFD.UK: 0 shares\n- WPP_CFD.UK: 0 shares\n\nActual positions held: AML, AUTO, CBG, FUTR, MCG, MSLH, OCDO, PSN, VTY = 9 positions\n\nWait, let me recount: \n1. AML_CFD.UK (qty > 0)\n2. AUTO_CFD.UK (qty > 0)\n3. CBG_CFD.UK (qty > 0)\n4. FUTR_CFD.UK (qty > 0)\n5. MCG_CFD.UK (qty > 0)\n6. MSLH_CFD.UK (qty > 0)\n7. OCDO_CFD.UK (qty > 0)\n8. PSN_CFD.UK (qty > 0)\n9. VTY_CFD.UK (qty > 0)\n\nThat's 9 active positions. LSS_CFD.FR shows qty=0 but has unrealized_pnl which is inconsistent. I'll treat it as not held.\n\nFor mean-reversion strategy:\n- We want to SELL positions that have moved UP significantly (mean reversion suggests they'll come back down)\n- We want to BUY positions that have moved DOWN significantly (mean reversion suggests they'll bounce back)\n\nLet me calculate the percentage change for each held position:\n1. AML: (40.5 - 36.52) / 36.52 = +10.9%\n2. AUTO: (482.8 - 482.8) / 482.8 = 0%\n3. CBG: (342.92 - 342.92) / 342.92 = 0%\n4. FUTR: (297.6 - 284.2) / 284.2 = +4.7%\n5. MCG: (20.14 - 17.39) / 17.39 = +15.8%\n6. MSLH: (137.2 - 140.8) / 140.8 = -2.6%\n7. OCDO: (186.0 - 204.3) / 204.3 = -9.0%\n8. PSN: (1184.5 - 1134.0) / 1134.0 = +4.5%\n9. VTY: (330.2 - 338.75) / 338.75 = -2.5%\n\nFor mean reversion, the candidates for SELL are those that have moved up the most: MCG (+15.8%), AML (+10.9%), FUTR (+4.7%), PSN (+4.5%)\n\nThe candidates for BUY (or HOLD to wait for recovery) are those that have moved down: OCDO (-9.0%), MSLH (-2.6%), VTY (-2.5%)\n\nBut wait, the strategy says \"avoid_overtrading\" and \"if no clear improvement vs current holdings, output HOLD for everything\". Also, we have max 2 sells and max 2 buys per run.\n\nLet me think about the principles:\n1. We should SELL winners that have deviated significantly upward from mean\n2. We should BUY losers that have deviated significantly downward from mean\n3. But we need to be careful not to overtrade\n\nGiven the constraints:\n- Current positions: 9 (so we have room for 1 more position)\n- We can sell up to 2 positions\n- We can buy up to 2 positions\n\nBut the portfolio shows many symbols with qty=0. These could be candidates for BUY if they've dropped significantly. Let me check the ones not held:\n\nSymbols not held (qty=0):\n- BTRW_CFD.UK: last 263.2 vs avg 250.8 (+5.0%) - up, not a buy candidate\n- BYIT_CFD.UK: last 292.6 vs avg 292.6 (0%) - flat\n- CRST_CFD.UK: last 118.83 vs avg 118.83 (0%) - flat\n- ICG_CFD.UK: last 1693 vs avg 1700 (-0.4%) - slight down\n- IWG_CFD.UK: last 172.2 vs avg 177 (-2.7%) - down\n- LRE_CFD.UK: last 593 vs avg 576 (+2.9%) - up\n- LSS_CFD.FR: last 16.0 vs avg 17.72 (-9.7%) - down significantly\n- PAGE_CFD.UK: last 132.9 vs avg 132.9 (0%) - flat\n- SYNT_CFD.UK: last 45.0 vs avg 34.9 (+29.2%) - up significantly\n- TRST_CFD.UK: last 173.4 vs avg 151.8 (+14.3%) - up significantly\n- UTG_CFD.UK: last 461.2 vs avg 505 (-8.7%) - down\n- WIZZ_CFD.UK: last 976.5 vs avg 872 (+12.0%) - up\n- WPP_CFD.UK: last 262.8 vs avg 253.97 (+3.5%) - up\n\nFor mean reversion, BUY candidates would be those down significantly:\n- LSS_CFD.FR: -9.7%\n- UTG_CFD.UK: -8.7%\n- OCDO (already held): -9.0%\n- IWG_CFD.UK: -2.7%\n\nSELL candidates (those up significantly):\n- MCG: +15.8%\n- SYNT (not held but up 29% - not relevant for sell)\n- TRST (not held but up 14.3% - not relevant)\n- WIZZ (not held but up 12% - not relevant)\n- AML: +10.9%\n- WIZZ (if held): +12%\n\nNow, let me think about the current portfolio more carefully. The strategy is mean-reversion, so:\n\nFor positions we hold:\n- MCG: +15.8% - STRONG SELL candidate (biggest winner)\n- AML: +10.9% - SELL candidate\n- FUTR: +4.7% - moderate, could HOLD\n- PSN: +4.5% - moderate, could HOLD\n- AUTO: 0% - HOLD\n- CBG: 0% - HOLD\n- MSLH: -2.6% - HOLD (wait for recovery or BUY more)\n- OCDO: -9.0% - HOLD (wait for recovery or BUY more)\n- VTY: -2.5% - HOLD\n\nFor positions we don't hold:\n- LSS_CFD.FR: -9.7% - BUY candidate (biggest loser)\n- UTG_CFD.UK: -8.7% - BUY candidate\n- IWG_CFD.UK: -2.7% - moderate BUY candidate\n- ICG_CFD.UK: -0.4% - not significant\n\nGiven the constraints:\n- Max 2 sells: I should sell MCG and AML (the two biggest winners)\n- Max 2 buys: I should buy LSS and UTG (the two biggest losers not held)\n- But I need to check if buying these would exceed max positions\n\nCurrent positions: 9\nIf I sell 2: 7 positions\nIf I buy 2: 9 positions (within limit of 10)\n\nBut wait, I need to be careful about overtrading. The rule says \"If no clear improvement vs current holdings, output HOLD for everything\". \n\nLet me reconsider. Maybe I should only make the most obvious trades:\n- MCG at +15.8% is a clear SELL signal for mean reversion\n- AML at +10.9% is also a decent SELL signal\n- LSS at -9.7% is a clear BUY signal\n- UTG at -8.7% is also a decent BUY signal\n\nBut I should also consider that OCDO is already held at -9.0%. Maybe I should buy more OCDO instead of UTG? But the strategy says \"fixed_position_size\": 3000.0, so each position should be roughly 3000 currency units.\n\nLet me calculate current position values:\n- AML: 82.15 * 40.5 = 3329\n- AUTO: 6.21 * 482.8 = 2998\n- CBG: 8.75 * 342.92 = 3000\n- FUTR: 10.56 * 297.6 = 3143\n- MCG: 172.51 * 20.14 = 3470\n- MSLH: 21.31 * 137.2 = 2924\n- OCDO: 14.68 * 186.0 = 2730\n- PSN: 2.65 * 1184.5 = 3137\n- VTY: 8.86 * 330.2 = 2925\n\nThese are all roughly around 3000, which matches the fixed_position_size.\n\nSo if I buy a new position, it should be around 3000 value.\n\nNow, let me think about the mean-reversion rationale more carefully. The strategy is \"Two-Stage LLM Mean-Reversion\". This suggests we should:\n\n1. Identify extreme deviations from mean (both over and under)\n2. Take contrarian positions\n3. The \"two-stage\" might refer to some time period or some other factor\n\nGiven the data I have, I can only work with price deviations from entry price (as a proxy for mean).\n\nMy decisions:\nSELL:\n1. MCG_CFD.UK: +15.8% gain - strongest mean-reversion signal\n2. AML_CFD.UK: +10.9% gain - second strongest\n\nHOLD:\n- OCDO_CFD.UK: -9.0% - already a losing position, mean-reversion suggests it will recover, so HOLD\n- MSLH_CFD.UK: -2.6% - slight loss, HOLD\n- VTY_CFD.UK: -2.5% - slight loss, HOLD\n- FUTR_CFD.UK: +4.7% - moderate gain, but not extreme enough to trigger sell\n- PSN_CFD.UK: +4.5% - moderate gain, but not extreme enough to trigger sell\n- AUTO_CFD.UK: 0% - flat, HOLD\n- CBG_CFD.UK: 0% - flat, HOLD\n\nBUY:\n1. LSS_CFD.FR: -9.7% - biggest loser not held, strong BUY signal\n2. UTG_CFD.UK: -8.7% - second biggest loser not held, strong BUY signal\n\nBut wait, I need to check the \"avoid_overtrading\" rule. Is it worth making these trades? The deviations are significant (15.8%, 10.9% for sells; 9.7%, 8.7% for buys). I think yes, these are clear signals.\n\nHowever, I notice that LSS_CFD.FR is a French symbol (.FR) while the rest are UK (.UK). The region is specified as \"EU\", so this should be fine.\n\nLet me double-check the portfolio constraints:\n- initial_equity: 10000.0\n- max_positions: 10\n- fixed_position_size: 3000.0\n- max_gross_leverage: 3.0\n\nCurrent portfolio value: sum of all position values = approximately 9 * 3000 = 27000\nBut wait, this exceeds initial equity of 10000. This means we're using leverage. Let me calculate more precisely:\n\nSum of position values:\nAML: 3329.04\nAUTO: 2998.00\nCBG: 3000.00\nFUTR: 3143.43\nMCG: 3470.00\nMSLH: 2924.00\nOCDO: 2730.00\nPSN: 3137.00\nVTY: 2925.00\nTotal: 26556.47\n\nLeverage = 26556.47 / 10000 = 2.66x, which is within the 3.0 limit.\n\nIf I sell MCG and AML, I reduce exposure by ~6800\nIf I buy LSS and UTG, I add ~6000\nNet effect is small, leverage remains within limits.\n\nNow, let me structure the output JSON:\n\nFor SELL actions, I need to provide symbol and reason.\nFor BUY actions, I need to provide symbol, position_size (currency amount), and reason.\nFor HOLD actions, I need to provide symbol and reason.\n\nThe reasons should be concise and reference mean-reversion rationale.\n\nLet me calculate the exact position sizes for buys:\n- LSS_CFD.FR: last_price 16.0, so qty = 3000 / 16.0 = 187.5 shares\n- UTG_CFD.UK: last_price 461.2, so qty = 3000 / 461.2 = 6.5 shares\n\nBut the output schema just asks for position_size as \"currency amount\", so I should put 3000.\n\nWait, I need to be more careful. The schema says \"position_size\": \"number (currency amount)\". So I should put the monetary value, e.g., 3000.\n\nLet me finalize my decisions:\n\nSELL:\n1. MCG_CFD.UK: +15.8% above entry, strong mean-reversion signal\n2. AML_CFD.UK: +10.9% above entry, good mean-reversion signal\n\nBUY:\n1. LSS_CFD.FR: -9.7% below entry, strongest loser not held\n2. UTG_CFD.UK: -8.7% below entry, second strongest loser not held\n\nHOLD:\n- All other held positions (OCDO, MSLH, VTY, FUTR, PSN, AUTO, CBG) with appropriate reasons\n- All non-held positions that don't meet the threshold\n\nBut I need to be careful about the number of HOLD entries. The schema shows hold as an array. Should I include every single symbol? That would be a lot. Let me check the schema again.\n\nThe schema shows:\n\"hold\": [{\"symbol\": \"string\", \"reason\": \"string\"}]\n\nThis suggests it's an array of objects. I should include all symbols that I'm not buying or selling, with a brief reason.\n\nActually, looking at typical portfolio management outputs, usually we only list the symbols we're actively making decisions on. But the schema seems to require listing everything.\n\nLet me reconsider: maybe I should only list the symbols where there's an active decision. But the schema shows three separate arrays: sell, hold, buy. So I need to categorize every symbol into one of these three actions.\n\nGiven that, I need to list:\n- SELL: MCG, AML\n- BUY: LSS, UTG\n- HOLD: everything else (17 symbols)\n\nThat's a lot, but I can group reasons. For symbols not held and not being bought, the reason is simply \"No significant mean-reversion signal; not held\" or similar.\n\nLet me craft the final JSON:\n\n```json\n{\n  \"actions\": {\n    \"sell\": [\n      {\n        \"symbol\": \"MCG_CFD.UK\",\n        \"reason\": \"Up 15.8% from entry price - significant over-extension, mean-reversion signal to lock profits\"\n      },\n      {\n        \"symbol\": \"AML_CFD.UK\",\n        \"reason\": \"Up 10.9% from entry price - overbought condition, mean-reversion signal to take profits\"\n      }\n    ],\n    \"hold\": [\n      {\n        \"symbol\": \"OCDO_CFD.UK\",\n        \"reason\": \"Down 9.0% - significant under-extension, mean-reversion suggests holding for recovery\"\n      },\n      {\n        \"symbol\": \"MSLH_C",
          "reasoning_details": [
            {
              "text": "  The user wants me to act as an Arena portfolio manager following the \"meanrev-v1\" strategy. I need to analyze the current portfolio and decide on actions (BUY, SELL, HOLD) based on mean-reversion principles.\n\nLet me first understand the strategy:\n- Max positions: 10\n- Max buys per run: 2\n- Max sells per run: 2\n- Avoid overtrading\n- Max gross leverage: 3.0\n- Fixed position size: 3000.0\n- Universe symbols: empty (so I need to work with what's provided)\n\nCurrent portfolio analysis:\nI have 21 symbols listed, but many have qty=0 (effectively not holding). Let me count actual positions:\n- AML_CFD.UK: 82.15 shares @ 36.52, last 40.5 (+11%)\n- AUTO_CFD.UK: 6.21 shares @ 482.8, last 482.8 (0%)\n- BTRW_CFD.UK: 0 shares\n- BYIT_CFD.UK: 0 shares\n- CBG_CFD.UK: 8.75 shares @ 342.92, last 342.92 (0%)\n- CRST_CFD.UK: 0 shares\n- FUTR_CFD.UK: 10.56 shares @ 284.2, last 297.6 (+4.7%)\n- ICG_CFD.UK: 0 shares\n- IWG_CFD.UK: 0 shares\n- LRE_CFD.UK: 0 shares\n- LSS_CFD.FR: 0 shares (but shows negative PnL - this is weird)\n- MCG_CFD.UK: 172.51 shares @ 17.39, last 20.14 (+15.8%)\n- MSLH_CFD.UK: 21.31 shares @ 140.8, last 137.2 (-2.6%)\n- OCDO_CFD.UK: 14.68 shares @ 204.3, last 186.0 (-9.0%)\n- PAGE_CFD.UK: 0 shares\n- PSN_CFD.UK: 2.65 shares @ 1134.0, last 1184.5 (+4.5%)\n- SYNT_CFD.UK: 0 shares\n- TRST_CFD.UK: 0 shares\n- UTG_CFD.UK: 0 shares\n- VTY_CFD.UK: 8.86 shares @ 338.75, last 330.2 (-2.5%)\n- WIZZ_CFD.UK: 0 shares\n- WPP_CFD.UK: 0 shares\n\nActual positions held: AML, AUTO, CBG, FUTR, MCG, MSLH, OCDO, PSN, VTY = 9 positions\n\nWait, let me recount: \n1. AML_CFD.UK (qty > 0)\n2. AUTO_CFD.UK (qty > 0)\n3. CBG_CFD.UK (qty > 0)\n4. FUTR_CFD.UK (qty > 0)\n5. MCG_CFD.UK (qty > 0)\n6. MSLH_CFD.UK (qty > 0)\n7. OCDO_CFD.UK (qty > 0)\n8. PSN_CFD.UK (qty > 0)\n9. VTY_CFD.UK (qty > 0)\n\nThat's 9 active positions. LSS_CFD.FR shows qty=0 but has unrealized_pnl which is inconsistent. I'll treat it as not held.\n\nFor mean-reversion strategy:\n- We want to SELL positions that have moved UP significantly (mean reversion suggests they'll come back down)\n- We want to BUY positions that have moved DOWN significantly (mean reversion suggests they'll bounce back)\n\nLet me calculate the percentage change for each held position:\n1. AML: (40.5 - 36.52) / 36.52 = +10.9%\n2. AUTO: (482.8 - 482.8) / 482.8 = 0%\n3. CBG: (342.92 - 342.92) / 342.92 = 0%\n4. FUTR: (297.6 - 284.2) / 284.2 = +4.7%\n5. MCG: (20.14 - 17.39) / 17.39 = +15.8%\n6. MSLH: (137.2 - 140.8) / 140.8 = -2.6%\n7. OCDO: (186.0 - 204.3) / 204.3 = -9.0%\n8. PSN: (1184.5 - 1134.0) / 1134.0 = +4.5%\n9. VTY: (330.2 - 338.75) / 338.75 = -2.5%\n\nFor mean reversion, the candidates for SELL are those that have moved up the most: MCG (+15.8%), AML (+10.9%), FUTR (+4.7%), PSN (+4.5%)\n\nThe candidates for BUY (or HOLD to wait for recovery) are those that have moved down: OCDO (-9.0%), MSLH (-2.6%), VTY (-2.5%)\n\nBut wait, the strategy says \"avoid_overtrading\" and \"if no clear improvement vs current holdings, output HOLD for everything\". Also, we have max 2 sells and max 2 buys per run.\n\nLet me think about the principles:\n1. We should SELL winners that have deviated significantly upward from mean\n2. We should BUY losers that have deviated significantly downward from mean\n3. But we need to be careful not to overtrade\n\nGiven the constraints:\n- Current positions: 9 (so we have room for 1 more position)\n- We can sell up to 2 positions\n- We can buy up to 2 positions\n\nBut the portfolio shows many symbols with qty=0. These could be candidates for BUY if they've dropped significantly. Let me check the ones not held:\n\nSymbols not held (qty=0):\n- BTRW_CFD.UK: last 263.2 vs avg 250.8 (+5.0%) - up, not a buy candidate\n- BYIT_CFD.UK: last 292.6 vs avg 292.6 (0%) - flat\n- CRST_CFD.UK: last 118.83 vs avg 118.83 (0%) - flat\n- ICG_CFD.UK: last 1693 vs avg 1700 (-0.4%) - slight down\n- IWG_CFD.UK: last 172.2 vs avg 177 (-2.7%) - down\n- LRE_CFD.UK: last 593 vs avg 576 (+2.9%) - up\n- LSS_CFD.FR: last 16.0 vs avg 17.72 (-9.7%) - down significantly\n- PAGE_CFD.UK: last 132.9 vs avg 132.9 (0%) - flat\n- SYNT_CFD.UK: last 45.0 vs avg 34.9 (+29.2%) - up significantly\n- TRST_CFD.UK: last 173.4 vs avg 151.8 (+14.3%) - up significantly\n- UTG_CFD.UK: last 461.2 vs avg 505 (-8.7%) - down\n- WIZZ_CFD.UK: last 976.5 vs avg 872 (+12.0%) - up\n- WPP_CFD.UK: last 262.8 vs avg 253.97 (+3.5%) - up\n\nFor mean reversion, BUY candidates would be those down significantly:\n- LSS_CFD.FR: -9.7%\n- UTG_CFD.UK: -8.7%\n- OCDO (already held): -9.0%\n- IWG_CFD.UK: -2.7%\n\nSELL candidates (those up significantly):\n- MCG: +15.8%\n- SYNT (not held but up 29% - not relevant for sell)\n- TRST (not held but up 14.3% - not relevant)\n- WIZZ (not held but up 12% - not relevant)\n- AML: +10.9%\n- WIZZ (if held): +12%\n\nNow, let me think about the current portfolio more carefully. The strategy is mean-reversion, so:\n\nFor positions we hold:\n- MCG: +15.8% - STRONG SELL candidate (biggest winner)\n- AML: +10.9% - SELL candidate\n- FUTR: +4.7% - moderate, could HOLD\n- PSN: +4.5% - moderate, could HOLD\n- AUTO: 0% - HOLD\n- CBG: 0% - HOLD\n- MSLH: -2.6% - HOLD (wait for recovery or BUY more)\n- OCDO: -9.0% - HOLD (wait for recovery or BUY more)\n- VTY: -2.5% - HOLD\n\nFor positions we don't hold:\n- LSS_CFD.FR: -9.7% - BUY candidate (biggest loser)\n- UTG_CFD.UK: -8.7% - BUY candidate\n- IWG_CFD.UK: -2.7% - moderate BUY candidate\n- ICG_CFD.UK: -0.4% - not significant\n\nGiven the constraints:\n- Max 2 sells: I should sell MCG and AML (the two biggest winners)\n- Max 2 buys: I should buy LSS and UTG (the two biggest losers not held)\n- But I need to check if buying these would exceed max positions\n\nCurrent positions: 9\nIf I sell 2: 7 positions\nIf I buy 2: 9 positions (within limit of 10)\n\nBut wait, I need to be careful about overtrading. The rule says \"If no clear improvement vs current holdings, output HOLD for everything\". \n\nLet me reconsider. Maybe I should only make the most obvious trades:\n- MCG at +15.8% is a clear SELL signal for mean reversion\n- AML at +10.9% is also a decent SELL signal\n- LSS at -9.7% is a clear BUY signal\n- UTG at -8.7% is also a decent BUY signal\n\nBut I should also consider that OCDO is already held at -9.0%. Maybe I should buy more OCDO instead of UTG? But the strategy says \"fixed_position_size\": 3000.0, so each position should be roughly 3000 currency units.\n\nLet me calculate current position values:\n- AML: 82.15 * 40.5 = 3329\n- AUTO: 6.21 * 482.8 = 2998\n- CBG: 8.75 * 342.92 = 3000\n- FUTR: 10.56 * 297.6 = 3143\n- MCG: 172.51 * 20.14 = 3470\n- MSLH: 21.31 * 137.2 = 2924\n- OCDO: 14.68 * 186.0 = 2730\n- PSN: 2.65 * 1184.5 = 3137\n- VTY: 8.86 * 330.2 = 2925\n\nThese are all roughly around 3000, which matches the fixed_position_size.\n\nSo if I buy a new position, it should be around 3000 value.\n\nNow, let me think about the mean-reversion rationale more carefully. The strategy is \"Two-Stage LLM Mean-Reversion\". This suggests we should:\n\n1. Identify extreme deviations from mean (both over and under)\n2. Take contrarian positions\n3. The \"two-stage\" might refer to some time period or some other factor\n\nGiven the data I have, I can only work with price deviations from entry price (as a proxy for mean).\n\nMy decisions:\nSELL:\n1. MCG_CFD.UK: +15.8% gain - strongest mean-reversion signal\n2. AML_CFD.UK: +10.9% gain - second strongest\n\nHOLD:\n- OCDO_CFD.UK: -9.0% - already a losing position, mean-reversion suggests it will recover, so HOLD\n- MSLH_CFD.UK: -2.6% - slight loss, HOLD\n- VTY_CFD.UK: -2.5% - slight loss, HOLD\n- FUTR_CFD.UK: +4.7% - moderate gain, but not extreme enough to trigger sell\n- PSN_CFD.UK: +4.5% - moderate gain, but not extreme enough to trigger sell\n- AUTO_CFD.UK: 0% - flat, HOLD\n- CBG_CFD.UK: 0% - flat, HOLD\n\nBUY:\n1. LSS_CFD.FR: -9.7% - biggest loser not held, strong BUY signal\n2. UTG_CFD.UK: -8.7% - second biggest loser not held, strong BUY signal\n\nBut wait, I need to check the \"avoid_overtrading\" rule. Is it worth making these trades? The deviations are significant (15.8%, 10.9% for sells; 9.7%, 8.7% for buys). I think yes, these are clear signals.\n\nHowever, I notice that LSS_CFD.FR is a French symbol (.FR) while the rest are UK (.UK). The region is specified as \"EU\", so this should be fine.\n\nLet me double-check the portfolio constraints:\n- initial_equity: 10000.0\n- max_positions: 10\n- fixed_position_size: 3000.0\n- max_gross_leverage: 3.0\n\nCurrent portfolio value: sum of all position values = approximately 9 * 3000 = 27000\nBut wait, this exceeds initial equity of 10000. This means we're using leverage. Let me calculate more precisely:\n\nSum of position values:\nAML: 3329.04\nAUTO: 2998.00\nCBG: 3000.00\nFUTR: 3143.43\nMCG: 3470.00\nMSLH: 2924.00\nOCDO: 2730.00\nPSN: 3137.00\nVTY: 2925.00\nTotal: 26556.47\n\nLeverage = 26556.47 / 10000 = 2.66x, which is within the 3.0 limit.\n\nIf I sell MCG and AML, I reduce exposure by ~6800\nIf I buy LSS and UTG, I add ~6000\nNet effect is small, leverage remains within limits.\n\nNow, let me structure the output JSON:\n\nFor SELL actions, I need to provide symbol and reason.\nFor BUY actions, I need to provide symbol, position_size (currency amount), and reason.\nFor HOLD actions, I need to provide symbol and reason.\n\nThe reasons should be concise and reference mean-reversion rationale.\n\nLet me calculate the exact position sizes for buys:\n- LSS_CFD.FR: last_price 16.0, so qty = 3000 / 16.0 = 187.5 shares\n- UTG_CFD.UK: last_price 461.2, so qty = 3000 / 461.2 = 6.5 shares\n\nBut the output schema just asks for position_size as \"currency amount\", so I should put 3000.\n\nWait, I need to be more careful. The schema says \"position_size\": \"number (currency amount)\". So I should put the monetary value, e.g., 3000.\n\nLet me finalize my decisions:\n\nSELL:\n1. MCG_CFD.UK: +15.8% above entry, strong mean-reversion signal\n2. AML_CFD.UK: +10.9% above entry, good mean-reversion signal\n\nBUY:\n1. LSS_CFD.FR: -9.7% below entry, strongest loser not held\n2. UTG_CFD.UK: -8.7% below entry, second strongest loser not held\n\nHOLD:\n- All other held positions (OCDO, MSLH, VTY, FUTR, PSN, AUTO, CBG) with appropriate reasons\n- All non-held positions that don't meet the threshold\n\nBut I need to be careful about the number of HOLD entries. The schema shows hold as an array. Should I include every single symbol? That would be a lot. Let me check the schema again.\n\nThe schema shows:\n\"hold\": [{\"symbol\": \"string\", \"reason\": \"string\"}]\n\nThis suggests it's an array of objects. I should include all symbols that I'm not buying or selling, with a brief reason.\n\nActually, looking at typical portfolio management outputs, usually we only list the symbols we're actively making decisions on. But the schema seems to require listing everything.\n\nLet me reconsider: maybe I should only list the symbols where there's an active decision. But the schema shows three separate arrays: sell, hold, buy. So I need to categorize every symbol into one of these three actions.\n\nGiven that, I need to list:\n- SELL: MCG, AML\n- BUY: LSS, UTG\n- HOLD: everything else (17 symbols)\n\nThat's a lot, but I can group reasons. For symbols not held and not being bought, the reason is simply \"No significant mean-reversion signal; not held\" or similar.\n\nLet me craft the final JSON:\n\n```json\n{\n  \"actions\": {\n    \"sell\": [\n      {\n        \"symbol\": \"MCG_CFD.UK\",\n        \"reason\": \"Up 15.8% from entry price - significant over-extension, mean-reversion signal to lock profits\"\n      },\n      {\n        \"symbol\": \"AML_CFD.UK\",\n        \"reason\": \"Up 10.9% from entry price - overbought condition, mean-reversion signal to take profits\"\n      }\n    ],\n    \"hold\": [\n      {\n        \"symbol\": \"OCDO_CFD.UK\",\n        \"reason\": \"Down 9.0% - significant under-extension, mean-reversion suggests holding for recovery\"\n      },\n      {\n        \"symbol\": \"MSLH_C",
              "type": "reasoning.text",
              "index": 0,
              "format": "unknown"
            }
          ]
        },
        "logprobs": null,
        "finish_reason": "length",
        "native_finish_reason": "length"
      }
    ],
    "created": 1775738155,
    "provider": "Google",
    "system_fingerprint": null
  }
}
Selection logs
#1069stage12026-04-09T12:35:55.482724+00:00
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          "reasoning": "  The user wants me to perform a stage 1 universe scan for the EU region using the \"meanrev-v1\" strategy. I need to select exactly 5 candidates for short-term mean reversion trading (2-10 trading days horizon).\n\nLet me analyze the constraints and rules:\n1. Select exactly 5 candidates\n2. Avoid earnings within 5 trading days (if known) - but all earnings data is null, so this constraint doesn't apply\n3. Avoid highly binary/event-driven moves (if known) - no news data available, so I have to infer from price action\n4. Avoid sector concentration: max 1 per sector unless clearly justified - but sector data is empty for all stocks, so I cannot apply this constraint meaningfully\n5. Focus on liquid equities - but avg_daily_volume_usd is null for all, so I have to infer from price and volatility\n6. Short-term mean reversion target - looking for oversold/overbought conditions that might snap back\n\nKey metrics to consider for mean reversion:\n- Large 1-day change (both positive and negative can be candidates)\n- Distance from moving averages (MA50 and MA200)\n- Volatility (20d)\n- We want stocks that have moved significantly and might revert\n\nLet me evaluate each stock:\n\n1. **HAS_CFD.UK (HAYS PLC)**: -17.2% down, -26.5% from MA200, -12.9% from MA50, high vol 118%. Looks oversold, good candidate.\n\n2. **MDM_CFD.FR (Maisons Du Monde)**: -23.8% down, -52.2% from MA200, -33.4% from MA50, EXTREMELY high vol 18104% (likely data error or very low price). Price is 0.881, very low. Might be too illiquid or problematic.\n\n3. **MGNS_CFD.UK (MORGAN SINDALL)**: +19.6% up, +32% from MA200, +15.6% from MA50, vol 90%. Overbought, potential short candidate, but strategy might be long-only? The description says \"mean reversion\" but doesn't specify direction. Looking at typical mean reversion strategies, they often look for oversold conditions to buy. But it can be both ways. Let me check the strategy name: \"Two-Stage LLM Mean-Reversion\" - likely looking for both long and short opportunities. However, given the constraints and typical implementation, I'll focus on oversold candidates first.\n\n4. **GEN_CFD.UK (GENUIT GROUP)**: +13.7% up, +1.1% from MA200, +7.5% from MA50, vol 113%. Mildly overbought.\n\n5. **BOY_CFD.UK (BODYCOTE)**: +24.2% up, +28.7% from MA200, +18.6% from MA50, vol 103%. Strongly overbought.\n\n6. **CRST_CFD.UK (CREST NICHOLSON)**: -12.8% down, -28.2% from MA200, -15.8% from MA50, vol 236%. Oversold, good candidate.\n\n7. **PAGE_CFD.UK (PAGEGROUP)**: -36.8% down, -40.6% from MA200, -31.7% from MA50, vol 193%. Very oversold, good candidate.\n\n8. **FGP_CFD.UK (FIRSTGROUP)**: +1.3% up, -4% from MA200, +1.7% from MA50, vol 88%. Not a significant move.\n\n9. **ICG_CFD.UK**: -15.2% down, -16.2% from MA200, -12.3% from MA50, vol 73%. Oversold, decent candidate.\n\n10. **SHC_CFD.UK**: -2.9% down, +0.3% from MA200, -0.8% from MA50, vol 64%. Not significant.\n\n11. **PAG_CFD.UK**: -3.4% down, -1.3% from MA200, +0.7% from MA50, vol 72%. Not significant.\n\n12. **CBG_CFD.UK**: -26.6% down, -13.4% from MA200, -22.1% from MA50, vol 169%. Very oversold, good candidate.\n\n13. **VCT_CFD.UK**: -9.3% down, -11.3% from MA200, -2.9% from MA50, vol 130%. Oversold.\n\n14. **DLN_CFD.UK**: +10.4% up, +5.1% from MA200, +12.2% from MA50, vol 115%. Overbought.\n\n15. **DOM_CFD.UK**: -0.3% down, -15.1% from MA200, +1.1% from MA50, vol 88%. Mildly oversold on longer term.\n\n16. **ONTEX_CFD.BE**: -9% down, -45.8% from MA200, -29.8% from MA50, vol 109%. Very oversold, but low price 3.095 might indicate liquidity issues.\n\n17. **DHER_CFD.DE**: +0.1% up, -26.6% from MA200, -15.2% from MA50, vol 144%. Oversold on longer timeframe but flat today.\n\n18. **IEP_CFD.BE**: 0% change, +1% from MA200, +0.6% from MA50, vol 138%. No movement.\n\n19. **BIG_CFD.FR**: +7% up, -71.8% from MA200, -47.2% from MA50, vol 208%. Price 0.29 - extremely low, likely illiquid.\n\n20. **OCDO_CFD.UK**: -27.7% down, -25.4% from MA200, -16.5% from MA50, vol 249%. Very oversold, good candidate.\n\n21. **ESNT_CFD.UK**: -10.6% down, -10.7% from MA200, -8.5% from MA50, vol 126%. Oversold.\n\n22. **CMCX_CFD.UK**: +6.5% up, +33.7% from MA200, +13.4% from MA50, vol 207%. Overbought.\n\n23. **MC_CFD.FR**: +6.9% up, -8.1% from MA200, -1.4% from MA50, vol 62%. Mixed signals.\n\n24. **GROW_CFD.UK**: +1.6% up, +22.6% from MA200, -4.3% from MA50, vol 116%. Mixed.\n\n25. **CDI_CFD.FR**: +2.9% up, -10.8% from MA200, -5.1% from MA50, vol 63%. Mixed.\n\n26. **AIXA_CFD.DE**: +12.3% up, +94.3% from MA200, +30.4% from MA50, vol 121%. Strongly overbought.\n\n27. **SPX_CFD.UK**: -0.3% down, +4.6% from MA200, -2.2% from MA50, vol 124%. Not significant.\n\n28. **VIRI_CFD.FR**: +32.3% up, +86.9% from MA200, +29.1% from MA50, vol 298%. Extremely overbought.\n\n29. **WKP_CFD.UK**: +3.7% up, +1.9% from MA200, +5.8% from MA50, vol 70%. Mild.\n\n30. **CAP_CFD.FR**: -0.4% down, -20% from MA200, -5.8% from MA50, vol 64%. Oversold on longer term.\n\n31. **BYW6_CFD.DE**: +1.9% up, -53.4% from MA200, -9.1% from MA50, vol 156%. Oversold on longer term.\n\n32. **ZIL2_CFD.DE**: -0.3% down, +25.2% from MA200, +21.9% from MA50, EXTREME vol 5416% (data issue). Price 5.47.\n\n33. **SMIN_CFD.UK**: -2.9% down, +8.7% from MA200, -1.2% from MA50, vol 89%. Mixed.\n\n34. **BPOST_CFD.BE**: 0% change, +7% from MA50, vol 2622% (data issue). Price 2.245.\n\n35. **DOCS_CFD.UK**: -3.5% down, -14.8% from MA200, -11.3% from MA50, vol 128%. Oversold.\n\n36. **VXXB_CFD.ETF**: -9% down, -6.2% from MA200, +3.8% from MA50, vol 181%. This is a VIX ETF, not a stock. Should avoid ETFs for equity mean reversion.\n\n37. **CRDA_CFD.UK**: -0.3% down, null from MA200, -0.6% from MA50, EXTREME vol 5232% (data issue). Price 2839.\n\n38. **DEZ_CFD.DE**: +7% up, +2.3% from MA200, -11% from MA50, vol 124%. Mixed.\n\n39. **HUBS_CFD.US**: -9.6% down, -44.8% from MA200, -12.7% from MA50, vol 129%. Very oversold, but it's a US stock in EU scan? Symbol says .US. Should probably avoid as region is EU.\n\n40. **ATG_CFD.UK**: +0.3% up, null from MA200, +0.8% from MA50, EXTREME vol 2871% (data issue).\n\n41. **BOSS_CFD.DE**: +1% up, -5.8% from MA200, +0.1% from MA50, vol 44%. Low vol, not significant.\n\n42. **CLARI_CFD.FR**: -2.4% down, null from MA200, +0.9% from MA50, EXTREME vol 3109% (data issue). Price 3.874.\n\n43. **COTY_CFD.US**: -0.7% down, null from MA200, -12.4% from MA50, EXTREME vol 7661% (data issue). US stock.\n\n44. **VTY_CFD.UK**: -52.2% down, -45.8% from MA200, -43.6% from MA50, vol 220%. EXTREMELY oversold but huge drop might be event-driven. Price 336.5.\n\n45. **MDV_CFD.PL**: -5.6% down, -41.5% from MA200, -18% from MA50, vol 81%. Oversold. Polish stock.\n\n46. **HMSO_CFD.UK**: +14.1% up, +22.5% from MA200, +10% from MA50, vol 87%. Overbought.\n\n47. **SGL_CFD.DE**: +5.7% up, +3.4% from MA200, -9.1% from MA50, vol 92%. Mixed.\n\n48. **WDAY_CFD.US**: -7.4% down, -41% from MA200, -15.3% from MA50, vol 86%. Oversold but US stock.\n\n49. **OR_CFD.FR**: +0.9% up, -4.3% from MA200, -3.8% from MA50, vol 47%. Not significant.\n\n50. **BRBY_CFD.UK**: +1.5% up, null from MA200, -10.2% from MA50, EXTREME vol 3625% (data issue).\n\nNow I need to select exactly 5 candidates. I should focus on:\n- Significant 1-day moves (large absolute change)\n- Significant distance from moving averages\n- Reasonable volatility (not extreme data errors)\n- Avoid extremely low-priced stocks (liquidity concerns)\n- Avoid ETFs and non-EU stocks\n- Avoid stocks with extreme volatility readings that look like data errors\n\nGood candidates for oversold (potential long):\n- HAS_CFD.UK: -17.2%, solid price level\n- PAGE_CFD.UK: -36.8%, very strong signal\n- CBG_CFD.UK: -26.6%, strong signal\n- OCDO_CFD.UK: -27.7%, strong signal\n- CRST_CFD.UK: -12.8%, decent signal\n- ICG_CFD.UK: -15.2%, decent signal\n- VCT_CFD.UK: -9.3%, moderate\n\nGood candidates for overbought (potential short):\n- MGNS_CFD.UK: +19.6%\n- BOY_CFD.UK: +24.2%\n- VIRI_CFD.FR: +32.3% (but vol 298% is high)\n- AIXA_CFD.DE: +12.3% (but +94% from MA200 seems extended)\n\nGiven the strategy is \"mean-reversion\" and typically these strategies focus on oversold conditions for long positions, I'll prioritize the most oversold candidates with:\n1. Large negative 1-day change\n2. Large negative distance from MAs\n3. Reasonable price level (not too low)\n4. Volatility not indicating data errors\n\nLet me filter out problematic stocks:\n- MDM_CFD.FR: price 0.881, vol 18104% - reject (illiquid, data issues)\n- BIG_CFD.FR: price 0.29 - reject (illiquid)\n- ONTEX_CFD.BE: price 3.095 - borderline but might be ok\n- ZIL2_CFD.DE: vol 5416% - reject (data issue)\n- BPOST_CFD.BE: vol 2622% - reject (data issue)\n- ATG_CFD.UK: vol 2871% - reject (data issue)\n- CLARI_CFD.FR: vol 3109% - reject (data issue)\n- COTY_CFD.US: vol 7661%, US stock - reject\n- CRDA_CFD.UK: vol 5232% - reject (data issue)\n- BRBY_CFD.UK: vol 3625% - reject (data issue)\n- VXXB_CFD.ETF: ETF - reject\n- HUBS_CFD.US: US stock - reject\n- WDAY_CFD.US: US stock - reject\n\nRemaining strong oversold candidates:\n1. **PAGE_CFD.UK**: -36.8% change, -40.6% from MA200, -31.7% from MA50, vol 193%, price 152.7 - EXCELLENT\n2. **OCDO_CFD.UK**: -27.7% change, -25.4% from MA200, -16.5% from MA50, vol 249%, price 191.8 - EXCELLENT\n3. **CBG_CFD.UK**: -26.6% change, -13.4% from MA200, -22.1% from MA50, vol 169%, price 372.74 - EXCELLENT\n4. **HAS_CFD.UK**: -17.2% change, -26.5% from MA200, -12.9% from MA50, vol 118%, price 47.66 - Good\n5. **CRST_CFD.UK**: -12.8% change, -28.2% from MA200, -15.8% from MA50, vol 236%, price 118.83 - Good\n6. **ICG_CFD.UK**: -15.2% change, -16.2% from MA200, -12.3% from MA50, vol 73%, price 1693 - Good but higher price\n7. **VTY_CFD.UK**: -52.2% change, -45.8% from MA200, -43.6% from MA50, vol 220%, price 336.5 - EXTREME but might be event-driven\n\nI need to select exactly 5. Let me rank them by strength of signal:\n\nTop 5 oversold:\n1. PAGE_CFD.UK (strongest 1-day drop, far from MAs)\n2. OCDO_CFD.UK (strong drop, far from MAs)\n3. CBG_CFD.UK (strong drop, far from MAs)\n4. HAS_CFD.UK (solid drop, far from MAs)\n5. CRST_CFD.UK (good drop, far from MAs)\n\nVTY_CFD.UK has an extreme -52% drop which might be event-driven/binary risk, so I'll avoid it despite the strong technical signal.\n\nI should also consider if I need any overbought candidates for balance. But the strategy doesn't explicitly require both sides, and given the selection rules focus on \"short-term mean reversion in liquid equities\", I can select all oversold candidates expecting a bounce.\n\nLet me double-check for any constraints I might have missed:\n- Sector concentration: Cannot apply as all sectors are empty\n- Earnings: All null, so no constraint\n- Event-driven: I'm avoiding VTY due to extreme move that looks event-driven\n- Liquidity: I'm avoiding very low-priced stocks\n\nThe 5 selected are all UK stocks. Is that a problem? The region is EU which includes UK. There's no explicit constraint against having multiple from same country. Since sectors are unknown, I cannot diversify by sector, so selecting the strongest signals regardless of country seems appropriate.\n\nLet me assign mean_reversion_scores based on:\n- Magnitude of 1-day change (absolute)\n- Distance from MA50 (absolute)\n- Distance from MA200 (absolute)\n- Volatility level (higher vol gets slightly higher score for mean reversion opportunity)\n\nScoring framework (0-100):\n- 1-day change: >20% = 30 points, 15-20%",
          "reasoning_details": [
            {
              "text": "  The user wants me to perform a stage 1 universe scan for the EU region using the \"meanrev-v1\" strategy. I need to select exactly 5 candidates for short-term mean reversion trading (2-10 trading days horizon).\n\nLet me analyze the constraints and rules:\n1. Select exactly 5 candidates\n2. Avoid earnings within 5 trading days (if known) - but all earnings data is null, so this constraint doesn't apply\n3. Avoid highly binary/event-driven moves (if known) - no news data available, so I have to infer from price action\n4. Avoid sector concentration: max 1 per sector unless clearly justified - but sector data is empty for all stocks, so I cannot apply this constraint meaningfully\n5. Focus on liquid equities - but avg_daily_volume_usd is null for all, so I have to infer from price and volatility\n6. Short-term mean reversion target - looking for oversold/overbought conditions that might snap back\n\nKey metrics to consider for mean reversion:\n- Large 1-day change (both positive and negative can be candidates)\n- Distance from moving averages (MA50 and MA200)\n- Volatility (20d)\n- We want stocks that have moved significantly and might revert\n\nLet me evaluate each stock:\n\n1. **HAS_CFD.UK (HAYS PLC)**: -17.2% down, -26.5% from MA200, -12.9% from MA50, high vol 118%. Looks oversold, good candidate.\n\n2. **MDM_CFD.FR (Maisons Du Monde)**: -23.8% down, -52.2% from MA200, -33.4% from MA50, EXTREMELY high vol 18104% (likely data error or very low price). Price is 0.881, very low. Might be too illiquid or problematic.\n\n3. **MGNS_CFD.UK (MORGAN SINDALL)**: +19.6% up, +32% from MA200, +15.6% from MA50, vol 90%. Overbought, potential short candidate, but strategy might be long-only? The description says \"mean reversion\" but doesn't specify direction. Looking at typical mean reversion strategies, they often look for oversold conditions to buy. But it can be both ways. Let me check the strategy name: \"Two-Stage LLM Mean-Reversion\" - likely looking for both long and short opportunities. However, given the constraints and typical implementation, I'll focus on oversold candidates first.\n\n4. **GEN_CFD.UK (GENUIT GROUP)**: +13.7% up, +1.1% from MA200, +7.5% from MA50, vol 113%. Mildly overbought.\n\n5. **BOY_CFD.UK (BODYCOTE)**: +24.2% up, +28.7% from MA200, +18.6% from MA50, vol 103%. Strongly overbought.\n\n6. **CRST_CFD.UK (CREST NICHOLSON)**: -12.8% down, -28.2% from MA200, -15.8% from MA50, vol 236%. Oversold, good candidate.\n\n7. **PAGE_CFD.UK (PAGEGROUP)**: -36.8% down, -40.6% from MA200, -31.7% from MA50, vol 193%. Very oversold, good candidate.\n\n8. **FGP_CFD.UK (FIRSTGROUP)**: +1.3% up, -4% from MA200, +1.7% from MA50, vol 88%. Not a significant move.\n\n9. **ICG_CFD.UK**: -15.2% down, -16.2% from MA200, -12.3% from MA50, vol 73%. Oversold, decent candidate.\n\n10. **SHC_CFD.UK**: -2.9% down, +0.3% from MA200, -0.8% from MA50, vol 64%. Not significant.\n\n11. **PAG_CFD.UK**: -3.4% down, -1.3% from MA200, +0.7% from MA50, vol 72%. Not significant.\n\n12. **CBG_CFD.UK**: -26.6% down, -13.4% from MA200, -22.1% from MA50, vol 169%. Very oversold, good candidate.\n\n13. **VCT_CFD.UK**: -9.3% down, -11.3% from MA200, -2.9% from MA50, vol 130%. Oversold.\n\n14. **DLN_CFD.UK**: +10.4% up, +5.1% from MA200, +12.2% from MA50, vol 115%. Overbought.\n\n15. **DOM_CFD.UK**: -0.3% down, -15.1% from MA200, +1.1% from MA50, vol 88%. Mildly oversold on longer term.\n\n16. **ONTEX_CFD.BE**: -9% down, -45.8% from MA200, -29.8% from MA50, vol 109%. Very oversold, but low price 3.095 might indicate liquidity issues.\n\n17. **DHER_CFD.DE**: +0.1% up, -26.6% from MA200, -15.2% from MA50, vol 144%. Oversold on longer timeframe but flat today.\n\n18. **IEP_CFD.BE**: 0% change, +1% from MA200, +0.6% from MA50, vol 138%. No movement.\n\n19. **BIG_CFD.FR**: +7% up, -71.8% from MA200, -47.2% from MA50, vol 208%. Price 0.29 - extremely low, likely illiquid.\n\n20. **OCDO_CFD.UK**: -27.7% down, -25.4% from MA200, -16.5% from MA50, vol 249%. Very oversold, good candidate.\n\n21. **ESNT_CFD.UK**: -10.6% down, -10.7% from MA200, -8.5% from MA50, vol 126%. Oversold.\n\n22. **CMCX_CFD.UK**: +6.5% up, +33.7% from MA200, +13.4% from MA50, vol 207%. Overbought.\n\n23. **MC_CFD.FR**: +6.9% up, -8.1% from MA200, -1.4% from MA50, vol 62%. Mixed signals.\n\n24. **GROW_CFD.UK**: +1.6% up, +22.6% from MA200, -4.3% from MA50, vol 116%. Mixed.\n\n25. **CDI_CFD.FR**: +2.9% up, -10.8% from MA200, -5.1% from MA50, vol 63%. Mixed.\n\n26. **AIXA_CFD.DE**: +12.3% up, +94.3% from MA200, +30.4% from MA50, vol 121%. Strongly overbought.\n\n27. **SPX_CFD.UK**: -0.3% down, +4.6% from MA200, -2.2% from MA50, vol 124%. Not significant.\n\n28. **VIRI_CFD.FR**: +32.3% up, +86.9% from MA200, +29.1% from MA50, vol 298%. Extremely overbought.\n\n29. **WKP_CFD.UK**: +3.7% up, +1.9% from MA200, +5.8% from MA50, vol 70%. Mild.\n\n30. **CAP_CFD.FR**: -0.4% down, -20% from MA200, -5.8% from MA50, vol 64%. Oversold on longer term.\n\n31. **BYW6_CFD.DE**: +1.9% up, -53.4% from MA200, -9.1% from MA50, vol 156%. Oversold on longer term.\n\n32. **ZIL2_CFD.DE**: -0.3% down, +25.2% from MA200, +21.9% from MA50, EXTREME vol 5416% (data issue). Price 5.47.\n\n33. **SMIN_CFD.UK**: -2.9% down, +8.7% from MA200, -1.2% from MA50, vol 89%. Mixed.\n\n34. **BPOST_CFD.BE**: 0% change, +7% from MA50, vol 2622% (data issue). Price 2.245.\n\n35. **DOCS_CFD.UK**: -3.5% down, -14.8% from MA200, -11.3% from MA50, vol 128%. Oversold.\n\n36. **VXXB_CFD.ETF**: -9% down, -6.2% from MA200, +3.8% from MA50, vol 181%. This is a VIX ETF, not a stock. Should avoid ETFs for equity mean reversion.\n\n37. **CRDA_CFD.UK**: -0.3% down, null from MA200, -0.6% from MA50, EXTREME vol 5232% (data issue). Price 2839.\n\n38. **DEZ_CFD.DE**: +7% up, +2.3% from MA200, -11% from MA50, vol 124%. Mixed.\n\n39. **HUBS_CFD.US**: -9.6% down, -44.8% from MA200, -12.7% from MA50, vol 129%. Very oversold, but it's a US stock in EU scan? Symbol says .US. Should probably avoid as region is EU.\n\n40. **ATG_CFD.UK**: +0.3% up, null from MA200, +0.8% from MA50, EXTREME vol 2871% (data issue).\n\n41. **BOSS_CFD.DE**: +1% up, -5.8% from MA200, +0.1% from MA50, vol 44%. Low vol, not significant.\n\n42. **CLARI_CFD.FR**: -2.4% down, null from MA200, +0.9% from MA50, EXTREME vol 3109% (data issue). Price 3.874.\n\n43. **COTY_CFD.US**: -0.7% down, null from MA200, -12.4% from MA50, EXTREME vol 7661% (data issue). US stock.\n\n44. **VTY_CFD.UK**: -52.2% down, -45.8% from MA200, -43.6% from MA50, vol 220%. EXTREMELY oversold but huge drop might be event-driven. Price 336.5.\n\n45. **MDV_CFD.PL**: -5.6% down, -41.5% from MA200, -18% from MA50, vol 81%. Oversold. Polish stock.\n\n46. **HMSO_CFD.UK**: +14.1% up, +22.5% from MA200, +10% from MA50, vol 87%. Overbought.\n\n47. **SGL_CFD.DE**: +5.7% up, +3.4% from MA200, -9.1% from MA50, vol 92%. Mixed.\n\n48. **WDAY_CFD.US**: -7.4% down, -41% from MA200, -15.3% from MA50, vol 86%. Oversold but US stock.\n\n49. **OR_CFD.FR**: +0.9% up, -4.3% from MA200, -3.8% from MA50, vol 47%. Not significant.\n\n50. **BRBY_CFD.UK**: +1.5% up, null from MA200, -10.2% from MA50, EXTREME vol 3625% (data issue).\n\nNow I need to select exactly 5 candidates. I should focus on:\n- Significant 1-day moves (large absolute change)\n- Significant distance from moving averages\n- Reasonable volatility (not extreme data errors)\n- Avoid extremely low-priced stocks (liquidity concerns)\n- Avoid ETFs and non-EU stocks\n- Avoid stocks with extreme volatility readings that look like data errors\n\nGood candidates for oversold (potential long):\n- HAS_CFD.UK: -17.2%, solid price level\n- PAGE_CFD.UK: -36.8%, very strong signal\n- CBG_CFD.UK: -26.6%, strong signal\n- OCDO_CFD.UK: -27.7%, strong signal\n- CRST_CFD.UK: -12.8%, decent signal\n- ICG_CFD.UK: -15.2%, decent signal\n- VCT_CFD.UK: -9.3%, moderate\n\nGood candidates for overbought (potential short):\n- MGNS_CFD.UK: +19.6%\n- BOY_CFD.UK: +24.2%\n- VIRI_CFD.FR: +32.3% (but vol 298% is high)\n- AIXA_CFD.DE: +12.3% (but +94% from MA200 seems extended)\n\nGiven the strategy is \"mean-reversion\" and typically these strategies focus on oversold conditions for long positions, I'll prioritize the most oversold candidates with:\n1. Large negative 1-day change\n2. Large negative distance from MAs\n3. Reasonable price level (not too low)\n4. Volatility not indicating data errors\n\nLet me filter out problematic stocks:\n- MDM_CFD.FR: price 0.881, vol 18104% - reject (illiquid, data issues)\n- BIG_CFD.FR: price 0.29 - reject (illiquid)\n- ONTEX_CFD.BE: price 3.095 - borderline but might be ok\n- ZIL2_CFD.DE: vol 5416% - reject (data issue)\n- BPOST_CFD.BE: vol 2622% - reject (data issue)\n- ATG_CFD.UK: vol 2871% - reject (data issue)\n- CLARI_CFD.FR: vol 3109% - reject (data issue)\n- COTY_CFD.US: vol 7661%, US stock - reject\n- CRDA_CFD.UK: vol 5232% - reject (data issue)\n- BRBY_CFD.UK: vol 3625% - reject (data issue)\n- VXXB_CFD.ETF: ETF - reject\n- HUBS_CFD.US: US stock - reject\n- WDAY_CFD.US: US stock - reject\n\nRemaining strong oversold candidates:\n1. **PAGE_CFD.UK**: -36.8% change, -40.6% from MA200, -31.7% from MA50, vol 193%, price 152.7 - EXCELLENT\n2. **OCDO_CFD.UK**: -27.7% change, -25.4% from MA200, -16.5% from MA50, vol 249%, price 191.8 - EXCELLENT\n3. **CBG_CFD.UK**: -26.6% change, -13.4% from MA200, -22.1% from MA50, vol 169%, price 372.74 - EXCELLENT\n4. **HAS_CFD.UK**: -17.2% change, -26.5% from MA200, -12.9% from MA50, vol 118%, price 47.66 - Good\n5. **CRST_CFD.UK**: -12.8% change, -28.2% from MA200, -15.8% from MA50, vol 236%, price 118.83 - Good\n6. **ICG_CFD.UK**: -15.2% change, -16.2% from MA200, -12.3% from MA50, vol 73%, price 1693 - Good but higher price\n7. **VTY_CFD.UK**: -52.2% change, -45.8% from MA200, -43.6% from MA50, vol 220%, price 336.5 - EXTREME but might be event-driven\n\nI need to select exactly 5. Let me rank them by strength of signal:\n\nTop 5 oversold:\n1. PAGE_CFD.UK (strongest 1-day drop, far from MAs)\n2. OCDO_CFD.UK (strong drop, far from MAs)\n3. CBG_CFD.UK (strong drop, far from MAs)\n4. HAS_CFD.UK (solid drop, far from MAs)\n5. CRST_CFD.UK (good drop, far from MAs)\n\nVTY_CFD.UK has an extreme -52% drop which might be event-driven/binary risk, so I'll avoid it despite the strong technical signal.\n\nI should also consider if I need any overbought candidates for balance. But the strategy doesn't explicitly require both sides, and given the selection rules focus on \"short-term mean reversion in liquid equities\", I can select all oversold candidates expecting a bounce.\n\nLet me double-check for any constraints I might have missed:\n- Sector concentration: Cannot apply as all sectors are empty\n- Earnings: All null, so no constraint\n- Event-driven: I'm avoiding VTY due to extreme move that looks event-driven\n- Liquidity: I'm avoiding very low-priced stocks\n\nThe 5 selected are all UK stocks. Is that a problem? The region is EU which includes UK. There's no explicit constraint against having multiple from same country. Since sectors are unknown, I cannot diversify by sector, so selecting the strongest signals regardless of country seems appropriate.\n\nLet me assign mean_reversion_scores based on:\n- Magnitude of 1-day change (absolute)\n- Distance from MA50 (absolute)\n- Distance from MA200 (absolute)\n- Volatility level (higher vol gets slightly higher score for mean reversion opportunity)\n\nScoring framework (0-100):\n- 1-day change: >20% = 30 points, 15-20%",
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    "created": 1775738074,
    "provider": "Google",
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}