Arena run #1138
meanrev-v1 • z-ai • z-ai/glm-4.7 • EU • success
Run status
as_of: 2026-04-09T10:04:16.483403+00:00
started_at: 2026-04-09T12:31:31.868760+00:00
finished_at: 2026-04-09T12:32:32.283197+00:00
duration_ms: 60413
Inputs
{
"as_of": "2026-04-09T10:04:16.483403+00:00",
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"selected": [
{
"symbol": "VTY_CFD.UK",
"selection_reason": "Extreme 1-day drop -52.2%, heavily oversold vs MA50 (-43.6%) and MA200 (-45.8%).",
"mean_reversion_score": 95
},
{
"symbol": "PAGE_CFD.UK",
"selection_reason": "Severe 1-day drop -36.8%, significantly below MA50 (-31.7%) and MA200 (-40.6%).",
"mean_reversion_score": 90
},
{
"symbol": "OCDO_CFD.UK",
"selection_reason": "Large 1-day decline -27.7%, trading well below MA50 (-16.5%) and MA200 (-25.4%).",
"mean_reversion_score": 88
},
{
"symbol": "CBG_CFD.UK",
"selection_reason": "Sharp 1-day drop -26.6%, extended below MA50 (-22.1%) and MA200 (-13.4%).",
"mean_reversion_score": 85
},
{
"symbol": "MDM_CFD.FR",
"selection_reason": "Significant 1-day drop -23.8%, deeply oversold vs MA50 (-33.4%) and MA200 (-52.2%).",
"mean_reversion_score": 82
}
],
"simulate_only": false,
"strict_replay": false,
"universe_symbols": [
"HAS_CFD.UK",
"MDM_CFD.FR",
"MGNS_CFD.UK",
"GEN_CFD.UK",
"BOY_CFD.UK",
"CRST_CFD.UK",
"PAGE_CFD.UK",
"FGP_CFD.UK",
"ICG_CFD.UK",
"SHC_CFD.UK",
"PAG_CFD.UK",
"CBG_CFD.UK",
"VCT_CFD.UK",
"DLN_CFD.UK",
"DOM_CFD.UK",
"ONTEX_CFD.BE",
"DHER_CFD.DE",
"IEP_CFD.BE",
"BIG_CFD.FR",
"OCDO_CFD.UK",
"ESNT_CFD.UK",
"CMCX_CFD.UK",
"MC_CFD.FR",
"GROW_CFD.UK",
"CDI_CFD.FR",
"AIXA_CFD.DE",
"SPX_CFD.UK",
"VIRI_CFD.FR",
"WKP_CFD.UK",
"CAP_CFD.FR",
"BYW6_CFD.DE",
"ZIL2_CFD.DE",
"SMIN_CFD.UK",
"BPOST_CFD.BE",
"DOCS_CFD.UK",
"VXXB_CFD.ETF",
"CRDA_CFD.UK",
"DEZ_CFD.DE",
"HUBS_CFD.US",
"ATG_CFD.UK",
"BOSS_CFD.DE",
"CLARI_CFD.FR",
"COTY_CFD.US",
"VTY_CFD.UK",
"MDV_CFD.PL",
"HMSO_CFD.UK",
"SGL_CFD.DE",
"WDAY_CFD.US",
"OR_CFD.FR",
"BRBY_CFD.UK"
]
}Outputs
{
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"id": "gen-1775737907-uDr4x7l6sV3EIIxkWvAx",
"model": "z-ai/glm-4.7-20251222",
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"reasoning": "1. **Analyze the Request:**\n * **Role:** Arena portfolio manager.\n * **Task:** Stage 2 portfolio management.\n * **Region:** EU (though the portfolio contains UK and US symbols, the strategy seems to handle a mixed universe or the user provided a specific list).\n * **Strategy:** Two-Stage LLM Mean-Reversion (Arena v1).\n * **Rules:**\n * Max positions: 10.\n * Max buys per run: 2.\n * Max sells per run: 2.\n * Avoid overtrading (prefer HOLD if marginal).\n * Max gross leverage: 3.0.\n * Fixed position size: 3000.0 (currency amount).\n * Output: ONLY valid JSON.\n * No inventing prices/fundamentals/news.\n * **Current Portfolio:**\n * Active positions (qty > 0): AUTO_CFD.UK, CBG_CFD.UK, FUTR_CFD.UK, HIK_CFD.UK, IWG_CFD.UK, KGF_CFD.UK, PAGE_CFD.UK, RMV_CFD.UK, TRST_CFD.UK.\n * Inactive positions (qty = 0): ADBE_CFD.US, BIG_CFD.FR, BTRW_CFD.UK, BYIT_CFD.UK, CCL_CFD.UK, CRWD_CFD.US, ERA_CFD.FR, FICO_CFD.US, OCDO_CFD.UK, THG_CFD.UK, TUI1_CFD.DE, VTY_CFD.UK, XRX_CFD.US, ZS_CFD.US.\n * Total Active Positions: 9.\n * **Candidates (Mean Reversion Signals):**\n * VTY_CFD.UK (Score 95): Extreme drop -52.2%.\n * PAGE_CFD.UK (Score 90): Severe drop -36.8%. (Already held).\n * OCDO_CFD.UK (Score 88): Large decline -27.7%.\n * CBG_CFD.UK (Score 85): Sharp drop -26.6%. (Already held).\n * MDM_CFD.FR (Score 82): Significant drop -23.8%.\n\n2. **Evaluate Current Holdings vs. Strategy:**\n * The strategy is \"Mean Reversion\". This implies buying oversold assets and selling overbought ones (or closing positions that have reverted).\n * *Constraint Check:* Max positions = 10. Current active = 9. We have room for 1 more position.\n * *Constraint Check:* Max buys = 2. We can buy up to 2.\n * *Constraint Check:* Max sells = 2.\n\n3. **Analyze Candidates:**\n * **VTY_CFD.UK (Score 95):** Not currently held. Extreme oversold signal. Strong buy candidate.\n * **PAGE_CFD.UK (Score 90):** Currently held (Qty ~45). The signal says \"Severe 1-day drop -36.8%\". Wait, looking at the portfolio data: `avg_price: 132.9`, `last_price: 132.9`, `unrealized_pnl: 0`. This suggests the price hasn't moved since opening, or the data is static. However, the *candidate* data says \"Severe 1-day drop -36.8%\". This implies a fresh signal. Since we already hold it, we might want to add to it (if allowed) or just hold. The strategy usually implies entering new positions or exiting existing ones. Since it's already held, and the signal is strong, we should likely HOLD it (unless we want to double down, but fixed position size usually implies one entry per ticker or strict sizing). Let's assume we keep it.\n * **OCDO_CFD.UK (Score 88):** Not currently held. Strong signal. Buy candidate.\n * **CBG_CFD.UK (Score 85):** Currently held. Similar to PAGE. Hold.\n * **MDM_CFD.FR (Score 82):** Not currently held. Buy candidate.\n\n4. **Analyze Existing Holdings for Sells:**\n * We need to check if any existing holdings have \"reverted\" (i.e., gone up too much) or if we need to free up slots.\n * Current active holdings: AUTO, CBG, FUTR, HIK, IWG, KGF, PAGE, RMV, TRST.\n * We have 9 slots. We can buy 1 new one without selling (Max 10).\n * Let's look at PnL:\n * FUTR: +141\n * HIK: +117\n * KGF: +155\n * RMV: +39\n * Others: 0 PnL (likely just opened or flat).\n * The strategy is \"Mean Reversion\". Usually, you sell when the price reverts to the mean or becomes overbought. The PnLs are positive but relatively small compared to the position size (3000). The \"last_price\" vs \"avg_price\" for the profitable ones:\n * FUTR: 297.6 vs 284.2 (+4.7%)\n * HIK: 1325 vs 1275 (+3.9%)\n * KGF: 303.9 vs 288.9 (+5.2%)\n * These are modest gains. They haven't \"exploded\" upwards to justify a sell based on mean reversion *exit* logic (selling high). However, we might need to sell to make room for a *better* opportunity if we are full.\n * We are not full (9/10). We can add one.\n * Which buy is best? VTY (95) is the highest score.\n * Should we sell anything to buy OCDO (88) or MDM (82) as well?\n * Max buys is 2. We can buy VTY and OCDO if we sell 1 (to make room for the 2nd buy).\n * Or we just buy VTY and hold the rest.\n * Let's look at the \"avoid overtrading\" rule. \"If no clear improvement vs current holdings, output HOLD\".\n * VTY (95) is a very strong signal. It's an extreme drop. It fits the strategy perfectly.\n * OCDO (88) is also strong.\n * Let's check the \"universe\" logic. The prompt lists `universe_symbols_eu` and `us` as empty, but the portfolio has specific symbols. I must stick to the provided list.\n * **Decision on Buys:**\n * Buy VTY_CFD.UK (Score 95). It's the top candidate.\n * Buy OCDO_CFD.UK (Score 88). It's the next best candidate not held.\n * **Decision on Sells (to make room):**\n * We have 9 positions. Max 10. To buy 2, we need to sell 1.\n * Which one to sell? We should sell the one that is least likely to revert further or has already reverted.\n * Looking at PnL: KGF (+5.2%), FUTR (+4.7%), HIK (+3.9%).\n * Looking at flat positions: AUTO, CBG, IWG, PAGE, TRST.\n * PAGE and CBG are also in the candidate list with high scores (90 and 85), meaning they are dropping (or just dropped). We should keep them because they are currently \"oversold\" according to the candidate list (even though portfolio data shows flat PnL, the candidate signal implies recent action).\n * The flat ones (AUTO, IWG, TRST) are not in the candidate list. They might be stagnant.\n * However, selling a flat position to buy a dropping one (mean reversion) is the strategy.\n * Let's look at the \"candidates\" list again. It highlights specific drops.\n * If I have to sell one to make room for VTY and OCDO.\n * Which holding is the weakest? The ones with 0 PnL and no signal.\n * Let's pick one of the flat ones. AUTO_CFD.UK, IWG_CFD.UK, TRST_CFD.UK.\n * Let's pick AUTO_CFD.UK or TRST_CFD.UK. Let's go with TRST_CFD.UK (arbitrary choice among flat non-candidates) or maybe one with a slight profit that has \"reverted\".\n * Actually, looking at the constraints: \"Max 2 BUY actions per run\". \"Max 2 SELL actions per run\".\n * If I buy VTY (95), I fill the 10th slot.\n * If I also want to buy OCDO (88), I must sell one.\n * Is OCDO (88) better than my worst holding?\n * My worst holdings are likely the flat ones (AUTO, IWG, TRST) or the ones that have already moved up (KGF, FUTR, HIK). Since it's mean reversion, we want to buy low. The flat ones are neutral. The up ones are high risk (might revert down).\n * Selling a winner (FUTR/HIK/KGF) locks in profit but misses further upside. Selling a flat one (AUTO/IWG/TRST) cuts a neutral position for a potentially high-upside oversold position.\n * Let's look at the candidate list again. PAGE and CBG are held and are candidates (dropping). This suggests the market is moving down for these.\n * Let's prioritize the Buy of VTY (95).\n * Should I buy OCDO (88)? It requires a sell.\n * Let's check the \"avoid overtrading\" rule. \"If no clear improvement... output HOLD\".\n * VTY is a clear improvement (Score 95 vs no signal for others).\n * OCDO (88) is also good.\n * Let's try to execute 2 buys and 1 sell.\n * Sell: AUTO_CFD.UK (Qty 6.2, Flat PnL, not in candidate list). It's taking up a slot.\n * Buy: VTY_CFD.UK.\n * Buy: OCDO_CFD.UK.\n * Wait, let's re-read the \"avoid overtrading\" rule carefully. \"If no clear improvement vs current holdings, output HOLD for everything\".\n * Is VTY a clear improvement? Yes, score 95.\n * Is OCDO a clear improvement? Yes, score 88.\n * Is selling AUTO justified? It has no signal and is flat.\n * Let's refine the selection.\n * **Buy 1:** VTY_CFD.UK. Score 95. Extreme drop.\n * **Buy 2:** OCDO_CFD.UK. Score 88. Large decline.\n * **Sell 1:** AUTO_CFD.UK. Flat, no signal.\n * **Alternative Sell:** FUTR_CFD.UK or HIK_CFD.UK. They have positive PnL. In mean reversion, you buy low, sell high. These have gone up. They might be candidates to sell to lock in the \"reversion\". However, the gains are small (~4-5%). Usually, mean reversion sells happen when RSI is high or price is far above MA. We don't have that data, only PnL. But PnL indicates they moved up.\n * Let's look at the \"candidates\" list again. It only lists *buy* signals (oversold). It doesn't list *sell* signals (overbought).\n * Without explicit sell signals, I should be careful about selling winners unless I need the slot.\n * I need 1 slot to buy 2.\n * I will sell one of the flat, non-candidate positions. AUTO_CFD.UK seems like a good candidate to exit to free up capital/slot for the high-probability mean reversion plays (VTY, OCDO).\n\n * **Let's check the position sizing.**\n * Fixed position size: 3000.0.\n * Buy VTY: 3000.\n * Buy OCDO: 3000.\n * Sell AUTO: Current value is approx 6.21 * 482.8 = 3000. (Matches fixed size).\n * This works perfectly.\n\n * **What about PAGE and CBG?**\n * They are in the portfolio and in the candidate list.\n * PAGE: Score 90. We hold it. Action: HOLD.\n * CBG: Score 85. We hold it. Action: HOLD.\n\n * **Summary of Actions:**\n * Sell: AUTO_CFD.UK (Reason: Freeing up slot for higher-scoring mean reversion opportunities; current position is flat with no signal).\n * Buy: VTY_CFD.UK (Reason: Highest mean reversion score (95), extreme oversold conditions).\n * Buy: OCDO_CFD.UK (Reason: High mean reversion score (88), significant decline).\n\n * **Wait, check constraints again.**\n * Max positions: 10.\n * Current: 9.\n * Sell 1 -> 8.\n * Buy 2 -> 10.\n * Fits.\n\n * **Are there any other considerations?**\n * \"Avoid overtrading\". Is selling a flat position overtrading? No, it's portfolio rotation.\n * Is buying two overtrading? Max is 2.\n * Are the signals strong enough? 95 and 88 are very high scores.\n\n * **Let's double check the symbols.**\n * VTY_CFD.UK: Candidate.\n * OCDO_CFD.UK: Candidate.\n * AUTO_CFD.UK: Holding.\n\n * **Let's check the \"Hold\" list.**\n * All other holdings should be held.\n\n * **Refining the \"Sell\" choice:**\n * AUTO, IWG, TRST are all flat.\n * AUTO: Opened 2026-03-19.\n * IWG: Opened 2026-03-17.\n * TRST: Opened 2026-02-16.\n * TRST has been held the longest without movement (based on PnL=0). It might be \"dead money\". Selling TRST might be better than AUTO.\n * However, AUTO is also flat.\n * Let's stick with AUTO or TRST. I'll pick AUTO as it's arbitrary among the flat ones. Or maybe TRST because it's older.\n * Let's look at the \"Candidates\" list again. It mentions \"Extreme 1-day drop\". This implies volatility.\n * Let's just pick AUTO_CFD.UK to sell.\n\n * **Final check on JSON structure.**\n * `actions`: `sell` (list), `hold` (list), `buy` (list).\n * `portfolio_rationale`: string.\n\n * **Drafting the rationale:**\n * Strategy is Mean Reversion.\n * VTY (Score 95) and OCDO (Score 88) present strong oversold opportunities.\n * To accommodate these buys within the max 10 position limit, one existing position must be closed.\n * AUTO_CFD.UK is selected for sale as it is currently flat with no mean reversion signal, whereas the new entries offer higher expected upside based on the strategy scores.\n * Existing positions PAGE and CBG also show strong signals but are already held, so they are retained.\n\n * **Wait, one detail.**\n * The prompt says: \"You are NOT allowed to invent prices/fundamentals/news/earnings.\"\n * I am using the provided `candidates` data for the scores and reasons.\n * I am using the provided `current_portfolio` for holdings.\n\n * **Constructing the JSON.**\n * Sell: AUTO_CFD.UK.\n * Buy: VTY_CFD.UK (3000).\n * Buy: OCDO_CFD.UK (3000).\n * Hold: Everything else.\n\n * **Wait, is there any reason NOT to buy OCDO?**\n * Score 88 is high.\n * Max buys is 2.\n * If I only buy VTY, I have 10 positions.\n * If I buy VTY and OCDO, I have 11 positions (if I don't sell).\n * So I *must* sell one to buy both.\n * Is OCDO (88) better than AUTO (no score)? Yes.\n * Is OCDO (88) better than TRST (no score)? Yes.\n * Is OCDO (88) better than IWG (no score)? Yes.\n * Is OCDO (88) better than FUTR (+4.7% PnL)? FUTR has gone up. Mean reversion strategy usually sells things that go up. But FUTR isn't in the \"sell\" list (we don't have one). However, holding a winner is generally okay unless we need the slot. Selling a winner to buy a loser (mean reversion) is the core mechanic. But selling a flat position is safer for capital preservation if the loser keeps dropping.\n * Given the \"avoid overtrading\" rule, maybe I should just buy VTY and hold everything else?\n * \"If no clear improvement vs current holdings, output HOLD for everything\".\n * VTY is a clear improvement.\n * OCDO is a clear improvement over the flat holdings.\n * I will proceed with 1 sell, 2 buys.\n\n * **Wait, I need to list \"Hold\" for the others?**\n * The schema asks for `sell`, `hold`, `buy`.\n * It's cleaner to list the specific actions and maybe",
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{
"text": "1. **Analyze the Request:**\n * **Role:** Arena portfolio manager.\n * **Task:** Stage 2 portfolio management.\n * **Region:** EU (though the portfolio contains UK and US symbols, the strategy seems to handle a mixed universe or the user provided a specific list).\n * **Strategy:** Two-Stage LLM Mean-Reversion (Arena v1).\n * **Rules:**\n * Max positions: 10.\n * Max buys per run: 2.\n * Max sells per run: 2.\n * Avoid overtrading (prefer HOLD if marginal).\n * Max gross leverage: 3.0.\n * Fixed position size: 3000.0 (currency amount).\n * Output: ONLY valid JSON.\n * No inventing prices/fundamentals/news.\n * **Current Portfolio:**\n * Active positions (qty > 0): AUTO_CFD.UK, CBG_CFD.UK, FUTR_CFD.UK, HIK_CFD.UK, IWG_CFD.UK, KGF_CFD.UK, PAGE_CFD.UK, RMV_CFD.UK, TRST_CFD.UK.\n * Inactive positions (qty = 0): ADBE_CFD.US, BIG_CFD.FR, BTRW_CFD.UK, BYIT_CFD.UK, CCL_CFD.UK, CRWD_CFD.US, ERA_CFD.FR, FICO_CFD.US, OCDO_CFD.UK, THG_CFD.UK, TUI1_CFD.DE, VTY_CFD.UK, XRX_CFD.US, ZS_CFD.US.\n * Total Active Positions: 9.\n * **Candidates (Mean Reversion Signals):**\n * VTY_CFD.UK (Score 95): Extreme drop -52.2%.\n * PAGE_CFD.UK (Score 90): Severe drop -36.8%. (Already held).\n * OCDO_CFD.UK (Score 88): Large decline -27.7%.\n * CBG_CFD.UK (Score 85): Sharp drop -26.6%. (Already held).\n * MDM_CFD.FR (Score 82): Significant drop -23.8%.\n\n2. **Evaluate Current Holdings vs. Strategy:**\n * The strategy is \"Mean Reversion\". This implies buying oversold assets and selling overbought ones (or closing positions that have reverted).\n * *Constraint Check:* Max positions = 10. Current active = 9. We have room for 1 more position.\n * *Constraint Check:* Max buys = 2. We can buy up to 2.\n * *Constraint Check:* Max sells = 2.\n\n3. **Analyze Candidates:**\n * **VTY_CFD.UK (Score 95):** Not currently held. Extreme oversold signal. Strong buy candidate.\n * **PAGE_CFD.UK (Score 90):** Currently held (Qty ~45). The signal says \"Severe 1-day drop -36.8%\". Wait, looking at the portfolio data: `avg_price: 132.9`, `last_price: 132.9`, `unrealized_pnl: 0`. This suggests the price hasn't moved since opening, or the data is static. However, the *candidate* data says \"Severe 1-day drop -36.8%\". This implies a fresh signal. Since we already hold it, we might want to add to it (if allowed) or just hold. The strategy usually implies entering new positions or exiting existing ones. Since it's already held, and the signal is strong, we should likely HOLD it (unless we want to double down, but fixed position size usually implies one entry per ticker or strict sizing). Let's assume we keep it.\n * **OCDO_CFD.UK (Score 88):** Not currently held. Strong signal. Buy candidate.\n * **CBG_CFD.UK (Score 85):** Currently held. Similar to PAGE. Hold.\n * **MDM_CFD.FR (Score 82):** Not currently held. Buy candidate.\n\n4. **Analyze Existing Holdings for Sells:**\n * We need to check if any existing holdings have \"reverted\" (i.e., gone up too much) or if we need to free up slots.\n * Current active holdings: AUTO, CBG, FUTR, HIK, IWG, KGF, PAGE, RMV, TRST.\n * We have 9 slots. We can buy 1 new one without selling (Max 10).\n * Let's look at PnL:\n * FUTR: +141\n * HIK: +117\n * KGF: +155\n * RMV: +39\n * Others: 0 PnL (likely just opened or flat).\n * The strategy is \"Mean Reversion\". Usually, you sell when the price reverts to the mean or becomes overbought. The PnLs are positive but relatively small compared to the position size (3000). The \"last_price\" vs \"avg_price\" for the profitable ones:\n * FUTR: 297.6 vs 284.2 (+4.7%)\n * HIK: 1325 vs 1275 (+3.9%)\n * KGF: 303.9 vs 288.9 (+5.2%)\n * These are modest gains. They haven't \"exploded\" upwards to justify a sell based on mean reversion *exit* logic (selling high). However, we might need to sell to make room for a *better* opportunity if we are full.\n * We are not full (9/10). We can add one.\n * Which buy is best? VTY (95) is the highest score.\n * Should we sell anything to buy OCDO (88) or MDM (82) as well?\n * Max buys is 2. We can buy VTY and OCDO if we sell 1 (to make room for the 2nd buy).\n * Or we just buy VTY and hold the rest.\n * Let's look at the \"avoid overtrading\" rule. \"If no clear improvement vs current holdings, output HOLD\".\n * VTY (95) is a very strong signal. It's an extreme drop. It fits the strategy perfectly.\n * OCDO (88) is also strong.\n * Let's check the \"universe\" logic. The prompt lists `universe_symbols_eu` and `us` as empty, but the portfolio has specific symbols. I must stick to the provided list.\n * **Decision on Buys:**\n * Buy VTY_CFD.UK (Score 95). It's the top candidate.\n * Buy OCDO_CFD.UK (Score 88). It's the next best candidate not held.\n * **Decision on Sells (to make room):**\n * We have 9 positions. Max 10. To buy 2, we need to sell 1.\n * Which one to sell? We should sell the one that is least likely to revert further or has already reverted.\n * Looking at PnL: KGF (+5.2%), FUTR (+4.7%), HIK (+3.9%).\n * Looking at flat positions: AUTO, CBG, IWG, PAGE, TRST.\n * PAGE and CBG are also in the candidate list with high scores (90 and 85), meaning they are dropping (or just dropped). We should keep them because they are currently \"oversold\" according to the candidate list (even though portfolio data shows flat PnL, the candidate signal implies recent action).\n * The flat ones (AUTO, IWG, TRST) are not in the candidate list. They might be stagnant.\n * However, selling a flat position to buy a dropping one (mean reversion) is the strategy.\n * Let's look at the \"candidates\" list again. It highlights specific drops.\n * If I have to sell one to make room for VTY and OCDO.\n * Which holding is the weakest? The ones with 0 PnL and no signal.\n * Let's pick one of the flat ones. AUTO_CFD.UK, IWG_CFD.UK, TRST_CFD.UK.\n * Let's pick AUTO_CFD.UK or TRST_CFD.UK. Let's go with TRST_CFD.UK (arbitrary choice among flat non-candidates) or maybe one with a slight profit that has \"reverted\".\n * Actually, looking at the constraints: \"Max 2 BUY actions per run\". \"Max 2 SELL actions per run\".\n * If I buy VTY (95), I fill the 10th slot.\n * If I also want to buy OCDO (88), I must sell one.\n * Is OCDO (88) better than my worst holding?\n * My worst holdings are likely the flat ones (AUTO, IWG, TRST) or the ones that have already moved up (KGF, FUTR, HIK). Since it's mean reversion, we want to buy low. The flat ones are neutral. The up ones are high risk (might revert down).\n * Selling a winner (FUTR/HIK/KGF) locks in profit but misses further upside. Selling a flat one (AUTO/IWG/TRST) cuts a neutral position for a potentially high-upside oversold position.\n * Let's look at the candidate list again. PAGE and CBG are held and are candidates (dropping). This suggests the market is moving down for these.\n * Let's prioritize the Buy of VTY (95).\n * Should I buy OCDO (88)? It requires a sell.\n * Let's check the \"avoid overtrading\" rule. \"If no clear improvement... output HOLD\".\n * VTY is a clear improvement (Score 95 vs no signal for others).\n * OCDO (88) is also good.\n * Let's try to execute 2 buys and 1 sell.\n * Sell: AUTO_CFD.UK (Qty 6.2, Flat PnL, not in candidate list). It's taking up a slot.\n * Buy: VTY_CFD.UK.\n * Buy: OCDO_CFD.UK.\n * Wait, let's re-read the \"avoid overtrading\" rule carefully. \"If no clear improvement vs current holdings, output HOLD for everything\".\n * Is VTY a clear improvement? Yes, score 95.\n * Is OCDO a clear improvement? Yes, score 88.\n * Is selling AUTO justified? It has no signal and is flat.\n * Let's refine the selection.\n * **Buy 1:** VTY_CFD.UK. Score 95. Extreme drop.\n * **Buy 2:** OCDO_CFD.UK. Score 88. Large decline.\n * **Sell 1:** AUTO_CFD.UK. Flat, no signal.\n * **Alternative Sell:** FUTR_CFD.UK or HIK_CFD.UK. They have positive PnL. In mean reversion, you buy low, sell high. These have gone up. They might be candidates to sell to lock in the \"reversion\". However, the gains are small (~4-5%). Usually, mean reversion sells happen when RSI is high or price is far above MA. We don't have that data, only PnL. But PnL indicates they moved up.\n * Let's look at the \"candidates\" list again. It only lists *buy* signals (oversold). It doesn't list *sell* signals (overbought).\n * Without explicit sell signals, I should be careful about selling winners unless I need the slot.\n * I need 1 slot to buy 2.\n * I will sell one of the flat, non-candidate positions. AUTO_CFD.UK seems like a good candidate to exit to free up capital/slot for the high-probability mean reversion plays (VTY, OCDO).\n\n * **Let's check the position sizing.**\n * Fixed position size: 3000.0.\n * Buy VTY: 3000.\n * Buy OCDO: 3000.\n * Sell AUTO: Current value is approx 6.21 * 482.8 = 3000. (Matches fixed size).\n * This works perfectly.\n\n * **What about PAGE and CBG?**\n * They are in the portfolio and in the candidate list.\n * PAGE: Score 90. We hold it. Action: HOLD.\n * CBG: Score 85. We hold it. Action: HOLD.\n\n * **Summary of Actions:**\n * Sell: AUTO_CFD.UK (Reason: Freeing up slot for higher-scoring mean reversion opportunities; current position is flat with no signal).\n * Buy: VTY_CFD.UK (Reason: Highest mean reversion score (95), extreme oversold conditions).\n * Buy: OCDO_CFD.UK (Reason: High mean reversion score (88), significant decline).\n\n * **Wait, check constraints again.**\n * Max positions: 10.\n * Current: 9.\n * Sell 1 -> 8.\n * Buy 2 -> 10.\n * Fits.\n\n * **Are there any other considerations?**\n * \"Avoid overtrading\". Is selling a flat position overtrading? No, it's portfolio rotation.\n * Is buying two overtrading? Max is 2.\n * Are the signals strong enough? 95 and 88 are very high scores.\n\n * **Let's double check the symbols.**\n * VTY_CFD.UK: Candidate.\n * OCDO_CFD.UK: Candidate.\n * AUTO_CFD.UK: Holding.\n\n * **Let's check the \"Hold\" list.**\n * All other holdings should be held.\n\n * **Refining the \"Sell\" choice:**\n * AUTO, IWG, TRST are all flat.\n * AUTO: Opened 2026-03-19.\n * IWG: Opened 2026-03-17.\n * TRST: Opened 2026-02-16.\n * TRST has been held the longest without movement (based on PnL=0). It might be \"dead money\". Selling TRST might be better than AUTO.\n * However, AUTO is also flat.\n * Let's stick with AUTO or TRST. I'll pick AUTO as it's arbitrary among the flat ones. Or maybe TRST because it's older.\n * Let's look at the \"Candidates\" list again. It mentions \"Extreme 1-day drop\". This implies volatility.\n * Let's just pick AUTO_CFD.UK to sell.\n\n * **Final check on JSON structure.**\n * `actions`: `sell` (list), `hold` (list), `buy` (list).\n * `portfolio_rationale`: string.\n\n * **Drafting the rationale:**\n * Strategy is Mean Reversion.\n * VTY (Score 95) and OCDO (Score 88) present strong oversold opportunities.\n * To accommodate these buys within the max 10 position limit, one existing position must be closed.\n * AUTO_CFD.UK is selected for sale as it is currently flat with no mean reversion signal, whereas the new entries offer higher expected upside based on the strategy scores.\n * Existing positions PAGE and CBG also show strong signals but are already held, so they are retained.\n\n * **Wait, one detail.**\n * The prompt says: \"You are NOT allowed to invent prices/fundamentals/news/earnings.\"\n * I am using the provided `candidates` data for the scores and reasons.\n * I am using the provided `current_portfolio` for holdings.\n\n * **Constructing the JSON.**\n * Sell: AUTO_CFD.UK.\n * Buy: VTY_CFD.UK (3000).\n * Buy: OCDO_CFD.UK (3000).\n * Hold: Everything else.\n\n * **Wait, is there any reason NOT to buy OCDO?**\n * Score 88 is high.\n * Max buys is 2.\n * If I only buy VTY, I have 10 positions.\n * If I buy VTY and OCDO, I have 11 positions (if I don't sell).\n * So I *must* sell one to buy both.\n * Is OCDO (88) better than AUTO (no score)? Yes.\n * Is OCDO (88) better than TRST (no score)? Yes.\n * Is OCDO (88) better than IWG (no score)? Yes.\n * Is OCDO (88) better than FUTR (+4.7% PnL)? FUTR has gone up. Mean reversion strategy usually sells things that go up. But FUTR isn't in the \"sell\" list (we don't have one). However, holding a winner is generally okay unless we need the slot. Selling a winner to buy a loser (mean reversion) is the core mechanic. But selling a flat position is safer for capital preservation if the loser keeps dropping.\n * Given the \"avoid overtrading\" rule, maybe I should just buy VTY and hold everything else?\n * \"If no clear improvement vs current holdings, output HOLD for everything\".\n * VTY is a clear improvement.\n * OCDO is a clear improvement over the flat holdings.\n * I will proceed with 1 sell, 2 buys.\n\n * **Wait, I need to list \"Hold\" for the others?**\n * The schema asks for `sell`, `hold`, `buy`.\n * It's cleaner to list the specific actions and maybe",
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}Prompts & responses
#2200 • openrouter • z-ai/glm-4.7 • 2026-04-09T12:31:31.914778+00:00
System prompt
You are an Arena strategy executor. You must follow the strategy rules strictly and output ONLY valid JSON. You are NOT allowed to invent prices, fundamentals, earnings dates, or sentiment. If a field is null/empty, treat it as unknown. You are a constrained selector (no narrative).
User prompt
{"task": "stage1_universe_scan", "region": "EU", "strategy": {"key": "meanrev-v1", "name": "Two-Stage LLM Mean-Reversion (Arena v1)", "rules": {"max_positions": 10, "max_buys_per_run": 2, "avoid_overtrading": true, "max_sells_per_run": 2, "max_gross_leverage": 3.0, "fixed_position_size": 3000.0, "universe_symbols_eu": [], "universe_symbols_us": []}}, "selection_rules": {"horizon": "2-10 trading days", "target": "short-term mean reversion in liquid equities", "constraints": ["Select exactly 5 candidates", "Avoid earnings within 5 trading days (if known)", "Avoid highly binary/event-driven moves (if known)", "Avoid sector concentration: max 1 per sector unless clearly justified (sector may be unknown)"]}, "universe": [{"symbol": "HAS_CFD.UK", "name": "HAYS PLC", "sector": "", "last_price": 47.66, "change_1d_pct": -17.213826645822483, "distance_from_ma200_pct": -26.546854506980832, "distance_from_ma50_pct": -12.888674431016456, "volatility_20d_pct": 117.95597135078918, "market_cap_usd": null, "avg_daily_volume_usd": null, "days_to_next_earnings": null, "earnings_confirmed": null, "news_sentiment_score": null, "news_headlines_last_3": [], "data_quality_note": "snapshot_ok_prices_technicals_only"}, {"symbol": "MDM_CFD.FR", "name": "Maisons Du Monde", "sector": "", "last_price": 0.881, "change_1d_pct": -23.788927335640132, "distance_from_ma200_pct": -52.221224948004654, "distance_from_ma50_pct": -33.44312824851928, "volatility_20d_pct": 18104.93330731392, "market_cap_usd": null, "avg_daily_volume_usd": null, "days_to_next_earnings": null, "earnings_confirmed": null, "news_sentiment_score": null, "news_headlines_last_3": [], "data_quality_note": "snapshot_ok_prices_technicals_only"}, {"symbol": "MGNS_CFD.UK", "name": "MORGAN SINDALL GROUP PLC", "sector": "", "last_price": 5370.0, "change_1d_pct": 19.599109131403125, "distance_from_ma200_pct": 32.00382943846654, "distance_from_ma50_pct": 15.63012691493826, "volatility_20d_pct": 90.38530398603771, "market_cap_usd": null, "avg_daily_volume_usd": null, "days_to_next_earnings": null, "earnings_confirmed": null, "news_sentiment_score": null, "news_headlines_last_3": [], "data_quality_note": "snapshot_ok_prices_technicals_only"}, {"symbol": "GEN_CFD.UK", "name": "GENUIT GROUP PLC", "sector": "", "last_price": 370.0, "change_1d_pct": 13.671274961597547, "distance_from_ma200_pct": 1.1384913963945476, "distance_from_ma50_pct": 7.521632190000593, "volatility_20d_pct": 112.82453945409682, "market_cap_usd": null, "avg_daily_volume_usd": null, "days_to_next_earnings": null, "earnings_confirmed": null, "news_sentiment_score": null, "news_headlines_last_3": [], "data_quality_note": "snapshot_ok_prices_technicals_only"}, {"symbol": "BOY_CFD.UK", "name": "BODYCOTE PLC", "sector": "", "last_price": 775.4, "change_1d_pct": 24.163330664531625, "distance_from_ma200_pct": 28.652243313347768, "distance_from_ma50_pct": 18.63612217470385, "volatility_20d_pct": 103.46484337510964, "market_cap_usd": null, "avg_daily_volume_usd": null, "days_to_next_earnings": null, "earnings_confirmed": null, "news_sentiment_score": null, "news_headlines_last_3": [], "data_quality_note": "snapshot_ok_prices_technicals_only"}, {"symbol": "CRST_CFD.UK", "name": "CREST NICHOLSON HOLDINGS", "sector": "", "last_price": 118.83, "change_1d_pct": -12.817314746881891, "distance_from_ma200_pct": -28.150055914529826, "distance_from_ma50_pct": -15.848139991077058, "volatility_20d_pct": 236.5351415372937, "market_cap_usd": null, "avg_daily_volume_usd": null, "days_to_next_earnings": null, "earnings_confirmed": null, "news_sentiment_score": null, "news_headlines_last_3": [], "data_quality_note": "snapshot_ok_prices_technicals_only"}, {"symbol": "PAGE_CFD.UK", "name": "PAGEGROUP PLC", "sector": "", "last_price": 152.7, "change_1d_pct": -36.79635761589404, "distance_from_ma200_pct": -40.61156091058385, "distance_from_ma50_pct": -31.72721647345812, "volatility_20d_pct": 193.22753953431183, "market_cap_usd": null, "avg_daily_volume_usd": null, "days_to_next_earnings": null, "earnings_confirmed": null, "news_sentiment_score": null, "news_headlines_last_3": [], "data_quality_note": "snapshot_ok_prices_technicals_only"}, {"symbol": "FGP_CFD.UK", "name": "FIRSTGROUP PLC", "sector": "", "last_price": 193.2, "change_1d_pct": 1.3109596224436304, "distance_from_ma200_pct": -4.044842646206826, "distance_from_ma50_pct": 1.7250076083144883, "volatility_20d_pct": 88.3516119820011, "market_cap_usd": null, "avg_daily_volume_usd": null, "days_to_next_earnings": null, "earnings_confirmed": null, "news_sentiment_score": null, "news_headlines_last_3": [], "data_quality_note": "snapshot_ok_prices_technicals_only"}, {"symbol": "ICG_CFD.UK", "name": "ICG Plc", "sector": "", "last_price": 1693.0, "change_1d_pct": -15.18545979199647, "distance_from_ma200_pct": -16.18296530905513, "distance_from_ma50_pct": -12.256151916578562, "volatility_20d_pct": 73.10253575454833, "market_cap_usd": null, "avg_daily_volume_usd": null, "days_to_next_earnings": null, "earnings_confirmed": null, "news_sentiment_score": null, "news_headlines_last_3": [], "data_quality_note": "snapshot_ok_prices_technicals_only"}, {"symbol": "SHC_CFD.UK", "name": "SHAFTESBURY CAPITAL PLC", "sector": "", "last_price": 140.4, "change_1d_pct": -2.9045643153526868, "distance_from_ma200_pct": 0.26963533347688085, "distance_from_ma50_pct": -0.771073778544229, "volatility_20d_pct": 63.75522821252001, "market_cap_usd": null, "avg_daily_volume_usd": null, "days_to_next_earnings": null, "earnings_confirmed": null, "news_sentiment_score": null, "news_headlines_last_3": [], "data_quality_note": "snapshot_ok_prices_technicals_only"}, {"symbol": "PAG_CFD.UK", "name": "PARAGON BANKING GROUP PLC", "sector": "", "last_price": 852.5, "change_1d_pct": -3.399433427762044, "distance_from_ma200_pct": -1.3404962254783492, "distance_from_ma50_pct": 0.699141440891915, "volatility_20d_pct": 71.52779356208148, "market_cap_usd": null, "avg_daily_volume_usd": null, "days_to_next_earnings": null, "earnings_confirmed": null, "news_sentiment_score": null, "news_headlines_last_3": [], "data_quality_note": "snapshot_ok_prices_technicals_only"}, {"symbol": "CBG_CFD.UK", "name": "CLOSE BROTHERS GROUP PLC", "sector": "", "last_price": 372.74, "change_1d_pct": -26.625984251968504, "distance_from_ma200_pct": -13.365429078084645, "distance_from_ma50_pct": -22.129222788055436, "volatility_20d_pct": 169.0552301316783, "market_cap_usd": null, "avg_daily_volume_usd": null, "days_to_next_earnings": null, "earnings_confirmed": null, "news_sentiment_score": null, "news_headlines_last_3": [], "data_quality_note": "snapshot_ok_prices_technicals_only"}, {"symbol": "VCT_CFD.UK", "name": "VICTREX PLC", "sector": "", "last_price": 635.0, "change_1d_pct": -9.285714285714286, "distance_from_ma200_pct": -11.261564295119154, "distance_from_ma50_pct": -2.9181133396627645, "volatility_20d_pct": 130.4010909373053, "market_cap_usd": null, "avg_daily_volume_usd": null, "days_to_next_earnings": null, "earnings_confirmed": null, "news_sentiment_score": null, "news_headlines_last_3": [], "data_quality_note": "snapshot_ok_prices_technicals_only"}, {"symbol": "DLN_CFD.UK", "name": "DERWENT LONDON PLC", "sector": "", "last_price": 1953.0, "change_1d_pct": 10.401356698699837, "distance_from_ma200_pct": 5.069478604951705, "distance_from_ma50_pct": 12.150447212111025, "volatility_20d_pct": 115.39088732649292, "market_cap_usd": null, "avg_daily_volume_usd": null, "days_to_next_earnings": null, "earnings_confirmed": null, "news_sentiment_score": null, "news_headlines_last_3": [], "data_quality_note": "snapshot_ok_prices_technicals_only"}, {"symbol": "DOM_CFD.UK", "name": "DOMINO'S PIZZA GROUP PLC", "sector": "", "last_price": 183.13, "change_1d_pct": -0.3102885138813294, "distance_from_ma200_pct": -15.070952368916624, "distance_from_ma50_pct": 1.0777282376278619, "volatility_20d_pct": 87.92203351330001, "market_cap_usd": null, "avg_daily_volume_usd": null, "days_to_next_earnings": null, "earnings_confirmed": null, "news_sentiment_score": null, "news_headlines_last_3": [], "data_quality_note": "snapshot_ok_prices_technicals_only"}, {"symbol": "ONTEX_CFD.BE", "name": "Ontex Group NV", "sector": "", "last_price": 3.095, "change_1d_pct": -8.970588235294109, "distance_from_ma200_pct": -45.776050709466496, "distance_from_ma50_pct": -29.82368626312829, "volatility_20d_pct": 108.69637170664194, "market_cap_usd": null, "avg_daily_volume_usd": null, "days_to_next_earnings": null, "earnings_confirmed": null, "news_sentiment_score": null, "news_headlines_last_3": [], "data_quality_note": "snapshot_ok_prices_technicals_only"}, {"symbol": "DHER_CFD.DE", "name": "DELIVERY HERO SE", "sector": "", "last_price": 16.289, "change_1d_pct": 0.10447394296952961, "distance_from_ma200_pct": -26.599410956780655, "distance_from_ma50_pct": -15.23633290593308, "volatility_20d_pct": 143.60854945931146, "market_cap_usd": null, "avg_daily_volume_usd": null, "days_to_next_earnings": null, "earnings_confirmed": null, "news_sentiment_score": null, "news_headlines_last_3": [], "data_quality_note": "snapshot_ok_prices_technicals_only"}, {"symbol": "IEP_CFD.BE", "name": "IEP Invest NV", "sector": "", "last_price": 5.4, "change_1d_pct": 0.0, "distance_from_ma200_pct": 0.9951765451794659, "distance_from_ma50_pct": 0.5657756042326989, "volatility_20d_pct": 138.39532879660115, "market_cap_usd": null, "avg_daily_volume_usd": null, "days_to_next_earnings": null, "earnings_confirmed": null, "news_sentiment_score": null, "news_headlines_last_3": [], "data_quality_note": "snapshot_ok_prices_technicals_only"}, {"symbol": "BIG_CFD.FR", "name": "Bigben Interactive", "sector": "", "last_price": 0.29, "change_1d_pct": 7.011070110701101, "distance_from_ma200_pct": -71.8461635543733, "distance_from_ma50_pct": -47.19976695069551, "volatility_20d_pct": 208.2394066644476, "market_cap_usd": null, "avg_daily_volume_usd": null, "days_to_next_earnings": null, "earnings_confirmed": null, "news_sentiment_score": null, "news_headlines_last_3": [], "data_quality_note": "snapshot_ok_prices_technicals_only"}, {"symbol": "OCDO_CFD.UK", "name": "OCADO GROUP PLC", "sector": "", "last_price": 191.8, "change_1d_pct": -27.731725697061027, "distance_from_ma200_pct": -25.425914067168765, "distance_from_ma50_pct": -16.54505218327368, "volatility_20d_pct": 249.00720326714767, "market_cap_usd": null, "avg_daily_volume_usd": null, "days_to_next_earnings": null, "earnings_confirmed": null, "news_sentiment_score": null, "news_headlines_last_3": [], "data_quality_note": "snapshot_ok_prices_technicals_only"}, {"symbol": "ESNT_CFD.UK", "name": "ESSENTRA PLC", "sector": "", "last_price": 90.1, "change_1d_pct": -10.61507936507937, "distance_from_ma200_pct": -10.657490467074904, "distance_from_ma50_pct": -8.545188421272742, "volatility_20d_pct": 126.22890829663649, "market_cap_usd": null, "avg_daily_volume_usd": null, "days_to_next_earnings": null, "earnings_confirmed": null, "news_sentiment_score": null, "news_headlines_last_3": [], "data_quality_note": "snapshot_ok_prices_technicals_only"}, {"symbol": "CMCX_CFD.UK", "name": "CMC MARKETS PLC", "sector": "", "last_price": 336.5, "change_1d_pct": 6.487341772151889, "distance_from_ma200_pct": 33.727269096422944, "distance_from_ma50_pct": 13.399699398122245, "volatility_20d_pct": 207.2492443353413, "market_cap_usd": null, "avg_daily_volume_usd": null, "days_to_next_earnings": null, "earnings_confirmed": null, "news_sentiment_score": null, "news_headlines_last_3": [], "data_quality_note": "snapshot_ok_prices_technicals_only"}, {"symbol": "MC_CFD.FR", "name": "LVMH Moet Hennessy Louis Vuitton", "sector": "", "last_price": 499.65, "change_1d_pct": 6.89987163029524, "distance_from_ma200_pct": -8.075237598557983, "distance_from_ma50_pct": -1.441139046521478, "volatility_20d_pct": 62.212159342265885, "market_cap_usd": null, "avg_daily_volume_usd": null, "days_to_next_earnings": null, "earnings_confirmed": null, "news_sentiment_score": null, "news_headlines_last_3": [], "data_quality_note": "snapshot_ok_prices_technicals_only"}, {"symbol": "GROW_CFD.UK", "name": "MOLTEN VENTURES PLC", "sector": "", "last_price": 465.0, "change_1d_pct": 1.572739187418093, "distance_from_ma200_pct": 22.569628774815076, "distance_from_ma50_pct": -4.275686024250158, "volatility_20d_pct": 115.72658030340939, "market_cap_usd": null, "avg_daily_volume_usd": null, "days_to_next_earnings": null, "earnings_confirmed": null, "news_sentiment_score": null, "news_headlines_last_3": [], "data_quality_note": "snapshot_ok_prices_technicals_only"}, {"symbol": "CDI_CFD.FR", "name": "Christian Dior SE", "sector": "", "last_price": 456.8, "change_1d_pct": 2.8828828828828756, "distance_from_ma200_pct": -10.829294200979934, "distance_from_ma50_pct": -5.120025037678855, "volatility_20d_pct": 63.182632135450476, "market_cap_usd": null, "avg_daily_volume_usd": null, "days_to_next_earnings": null, "earnings_confirmed": null, "news_sentiment_score": null, "news_headlines_last_3": [], "data_quality_note": "snapshot_ok_prices_technicals_only"}, {"symbol": "AIXA_CFD.DE", "name": "Aixtron AG NA", "sector": "", "last_price": 36.38, "change_1d_pct": 12.280485170210786, "distance_from_ma200_pct": 94.25293248242221, "distance_from_ma50_pct": 30.37333073398969, "volatility_20d_pct": 121.0421912167388, "market_cap_usd": null, "avg_daily_volume_usd": null, "days_to_next_earnings": null, "earnings_confirmed": null, "news_sentiment_score": null, "news_headlines_last_3": [], "data_quality_note": "snapshot_ok_prices_technicals_only"}, {"symbol": "SPX_CFD.UK", "name": "SPIRAX-SARCO ENGINEERING PLC", "sector": "", "last_price": 6862.0, "change_1d_pct": -0.3340595497458243, "distance_from_ma200_pct": 4.60751035733642, "distance_from_ma50_pct": -2.1558703469177654, "volatility_20d_pct": 123.56004816253518, "market_cap_usd": null, "avg_daily_volume_usd": null, "days_to_next_earnings": null, "earnings_confirmed": null, "news_sentiment_score": null, "news_headlines_last_3": [], "data_quality_note": "snapshot_ok_prices_technicals_only"}, {"symbol": "VIRI_CFD.FR", "name": "VIRIDIEN", "sector": "", "last_price": 127.1, "change_1d_pct": 32.258064516129025, "distance_from_ma200_pct": 86.88026988392838, "distance_from_ma50_pct": 29.097132641971314, "volatility_20d_pct": 297.97668648307325, "market_cap_usd": null, "avg_daily_volume_usd": null, "days_to_next_earnings": null, "earnings_confirmed": null, "news_sentiment_score": null, "news_headlines_last_3": [], "data_quality_note": "snapshot_ok_prices_technicals_only"}, {"symbol": "WKP_CFD.UK", "name": "WORKSPACE GROUP PLC", "sector": "", "last_price": 423.0, "change_1d_pct": 3.6764705882353033, "distance_from_ma200_pct": 1.8640028868691871, "distance_from_ma50_pct": 5.808194506978848, "volatility_20d_pct": 70.2233148398582, "market_cap_usd": null, "avg_daily_volume_usd": null, "days_to_next_earnings": null, "earnings_confirmed": null, "news_sentiment_score": null, "news_headlines_last_3": [], "data_quality_note": "snapshot_ok_prices_technicals_only"}, {"symbol": "CAP_CFD.FR", "name": "Capgemini", "sector": "", "last_price": 100.8, "change_1d_pct": -0.4444444444444473, "distance_from_ma200_pct": -20.008491162148466, "distance_from_ma50_pct": -5.819812372137334, "volatility_20d_pct": 63.88001546108049, "market_cap_usd": null, "avg_daily_volume_usd": null, "days_to_next_earnings": null, "earnings_confirmed": null, "news_sentiment_score": null, "news_headlines_last_3": [], "data_quality_note": "snapshot_ok_prices_technicals_only"}, {"symbol": "BYW6_CFD.DE", "name": "BayWa AG vNa", "sector": "", "last_price": 2.701, "change_1d_pct": 1.9245283018868076, "distance_from_ma200_pct": -53.425855116646595, "distance_from_ma50_pct": -9.078056202620266, "volatility_20d_pct": 156.3034682583357, "market_cap_usd": null, "avg_daily_volume_usd": null, "days_to_next_earnings": null, "earnings_confirmed": null, "news_sentiment_score": null, "news_headlines_last_3": [], "data_quality_note": "snapshot_ok_prices_technicals_only"}, {"symbol": "ZIL2_CFD.DE", "name": "ELRINGKLINGER AG", "sector": "", "last_price": 5.47, "change_1d_pct": -0.30982321851650285, "distance_from_ma200_pct": 25.153725153725137, "distance_from_ma50_pct": 21.93925775328589, "volatility_20d_pct": 5416.880074540502, "market_cap_usd": null, "avg_daily_volume_usd": null, "days_to_next_earnings": null, "earnings_confirmed": null, "news_sentiment_score": null, "news_headlines_last_3": [], "data_quality_note": "snapshot_ok_prices_technicals_only"}, {"symbol": "SMIN_CFD.UK", "name": "SMITHS GROUP PLC", "sector": "", "last_price": 2410.0, "change_1d_pct": -2.900886381950041, "distance_from_ma200_pct": 8.724723729236384, "distance_from_ma50_pct": -1.2150629239554345, "volatility_20d_pct": 88.62035790812207, "market_cap_usd": null, "avg_daily_volume_usd": null, "days_to_next_earnings": null, "earnings_confirmed": null, "news_sentiment_score": null, "news_headlines_last_3": [], "data_quality_note": "snapshot_ok_prices_technicals_only"}, {"symbol": "BPOST_CFD.BE", "name": "Bpost", "sector": "", "last_price": 2.245, "change_1d_pct": 0.0, "distance_from_ma200_pct": null, "distance_from_ma50_pct": 7.002592846793276, "volatility_20d_pct": 2622.8624681176075, "market_cap_usd": null, "avg_daily_volume_usd": null, "days_to_next_earnings": null, "earnings_confirmed": null, "news_sentiment_score": null, "news_headlines_last_3": [], "data_quality_note": "snapshot_ok_prices_technicals_only"}, {"symbol": "DOCS_CFD.UK", "name": "DR. MARTENS PLC", "sector": "", "last_price": 64.5, "change_1d_pct": -3.5153328347045543, "distance_from_ma200_pct": -14.829841246785492, "distance_from_ma50_pct": -11.320702834987761, "volatility_20d_pct": 128.30568371469687, "market_cap_usd": null, "avg_daily_volume_usd": null, "days_to_next_earnings": null, "earnings_confirmed": null, "news_sentiment_score": null, "news_headlines_last_3": [], "data_quality_note": "snapshot_ok_prices_technicals_only"}, {"symbol": "VXXB_CFD.ETF", "name": "IPATH SERIES B S&P 500 VIX", "sector": "", "last_price": 32.36, "change_1d_pct": -9.024458813606973, "distance_from_ma200_pct": -6.246921735301103, "distance_from_ma50_pct": 3.784477228992933, "volatility_20d_pct": 180.71815564662478, "market_cap_usd": null, "avg_daily_volume_usd": null, "days_to_next_earnings": null, "earnings_confirmed": null, "news_sentiment_score": null, "news_headlines_last_3": [], "data_quality_note": "snapshot_ok_prices_technicals_only"}, {"symbol": "CRDA_CFD.UK", "name": "CRODA INTERNATIONAL PLC", "sector": "", "last_price": 2839.0, "change_1d_pct": -0.28099754127151044, "distance_from_ma200_pct": null, "distance_from_ma50_pct": -0.572261096752058, "volatility_20d_pct": 5232.645582727379, "market_cap_usd": null, "avg_daily_volume_usd": null, "days_to_next_earnings": null, "earnings_confirmed": null, "news_sentiment_score": null, "news_headlines_last_3": [], "data_quality_note": "snapshot_ok_prices_technicals_only"}, {"symbol": "DEZ_CFD.DE", "name": "Deutz AG", "sector": "", "last_price": 9.345, "change_1d_pct": 7.0079010649261475, "distance_from_ma200_pct": 2.2851901552283227, "distance_from_ma50_pct": -11.038465273110464, "volatility_20d_pct": 124.59838290952874, "market_cap_usd": null, "avg_daily_volume_usd": null, "days_to_next_earnings": null, "earnings_confirmed": null, "news_sentiment_score": null, "news_headlines_last_3": [], "data_quality_note": "snapshot_ok_prices_technicals_only"}, {"symbol": "HUBS_CFD.US", "name": "HubSpot Inc", "sector": "", "last_price": 221.6, "change_1d_pct": -9.606363450948407, "distance_from_ma200_pct": -44.79525916832166, "distance_from_ma50_pct": -12.659211694206352, "volatility_20d_pct": 129.34490404762084, "market_cap_usd": null, "avg_daily_volume_usd": null, "days_to_next_earnings": null, "earnings_confirmed": null, "news_sentiment_score": null, "news_headlines_last_3": [], "data_quality_note": "snapshot_ok_prices_technicals_only"}, {"symbol": "ATG_CFD.UK", "name": "AUCTION TECHNOLOGY GROUP", "sector": "", "last_price": 313.0, "change_1d_pct": 0.3205128205128194, "distance_from_ma200_pct": null, "distance_from_ma50_pct": 0.8343803356850588, "volatility_20d_pct": 2871.9337920464413, "market_cap_usd": null, "avg_daily_volume_usd": null, "days_to_next_earnings": null, "earnings_confirmed": null, "news_sentiment_score": null, "news_headlines_last_3": [], "data_quality_note": "snapshot_ok_prices_technicals_only"}, {"symbol": "BOSS_CFD.DE", "name": "Hugo Boss AG", "sector": "", "last_price": 36.365, "change_1d_pct": 0.9858372674257154, "distance_from_ma200_pct": -5.824458759322382, "distance_from_ma50_pct": 0.09126980631866122, "volatility_20d_pct": 44.082244703993894, "market_cap_usd": null, "avg_daily_volume_usd": null, "days_to_next_earnings": null, "earnings_confirmed": null, "news_sentiment_score": null, "news_headlines_last_3": [], "data_quality_note": "snapshot_ok_prices_technicals_only"}, {"symbol": "CLARI_CFD.FR", "name": "Clariane SE", "sector": "", "last_price": 3.874, "change_1d_pct": -2.4181360201511404, "distance_from_ma200_pct": null, "distance_from_ma50_pct": 0.9358846089711603, "volatility_20d_pct": 3109.006288666479, "market_cap_usd": null, "avg_daily_volume_usd": null, "days_to_next_earnings": null, "earnings_confirmed": null, "news_sentiment_score": null, "news_headlines_last_3": [], "data_quality_note": "snapshot_ok_prices_technicals_only"}, {"symbol": "COTY_CFD.US", "name": "Coty Inc", "sector": "", "last_price": 2.65, "change_1d_pct": -0.7490636704119868, "distance_from_ma200_pct": null, "distance_from_ma50_pct": -12.425644415069403, "volatility_20d_pct": 7661.46272234243, "market_cap_usd": null, "avg_daily_volume_usd": null, "days_to_next_earnings": null, "earnings_confirmed": null, "news_sentiment_score": null, "news_headlines_last_3": [], "data_quality_note": "snapshot_ok_prices_technicals_only"}, {"symbol": "VTY_CFD.UK", "name": "VISTRY GROUP PLC", "sector": "", "last_price": 336.5, "change_1d_pct": -52.24240703945502, "distance_from_ma200_pct": -45.76092188057602, "distance_from_ma50_pct": -43.644091924608695, "volatility_20d_pct": 220.52645545975528, "market_cap_usd": null, "avg_daily_volume_usd": null, "days_to_next_earnings": null, "earnings_confirmed": null, "news_sentiment_score": null, "news_headlines_last_3": [], "data_quality_note": "snapshot_ok_prices_technicals_only"}, {"symbol": "MDV_CFD.PL", "name": "Modivo S.A.", "sector": "", "last_price": 86.3, "change_1d_pct": -5.621172353455817, "distance_from_ma200_pct": -41.47482094889456, "distance_from_ma50_pct": -17.96468774299278, "volatility_20d_pct": 81.26543963924402, "market_cap_usd": null, "avg_daily_volume_usd": null, "days_to_next_earnings": null, "earnings_confirmed": null, "news_sentiment_score": null, "news_headlines_last_3": [], "data_quality_note": "snapshot_ok_prices_technicals_only"}, {"symbol": "HMSO_CFD.UK", "name": "HAMMERSON PLC", "sector": "", "last_price": 355.4, "change_1d_pct": 14.129736673089276, "distance_from_ma200_pct": 22.516025502913806, "distance_from_ma50_pct": 10.006914897239172, "volatility_20d_pct": 87.54938293511039, "market_cap_usd": null, "avg_daily_volume_usd": null, "days_to_next_earnings": null, "earnings_confirmed": null, "news_sentiment_score": null, "news_headlines_last_3": [], "data_quality_note": "snapshot_ok_prices_technicals_only"}, {"symbol": "SGL_CFD.DE", "name": "SGL Carbon SE", "sector": "", "last_price": 3.545, "change_1d_pct": 5.663189269746649, "distance_from_ma200_pct": 3.398741422935836, "distance_from_ma50_pct": -9.100699501528242, "volatility_20d_pct": 92.29220096966039, "market_cap_usd": null, "avg_daily_volume_usd": null, "days_to_next_earnings": null, "earnings_confirmed": null, "news_sentiment_score": null, "news_headlines_last_3": [], "data_quality_note": "snapshot_ok_prices_technicals_only"}, {"symbol": "WDAY_CFD.US", "name": "", "sector": "", "last_price": 121.19, "change_1d_pct": -7.3612597462161755, "distance_from_ma200_pct": -41.004888430649224, "distance_from_ma50_pct": -15.258385357230765, "volatility_20d_pct": 85.7260973003909, "market_cap_usd": null, "avg_daily_volume_usd": null, "days_to_next_earnings": null, "earnings_confirmed": null, "news_sentiment_score": null, "news_headlines_last_3": [], "data_quality_note": "snapshot_ok_prices_technicals_only"}, {"symbol": "OR_CFD.FR", "name": "", "sector": "", "last_price": 358.961, "change_1d_pct": 0.8742447660531116, "distance_from_ma200_pct": -4.312852384046395, "distance_from_ma50_pct": -3.76420945799798, "volatility_20d_pct": 47.03890159793636, "market_cap_usd": null, "avg_daily_volume_usd": null, "days_to_next_earnings": null, "earnings_confirmed": null, "news_sentiment_score": null, "news_headlines_last_3": [], "data_quality_note": "snapshot_ok_prices_technicals_only"}, {"symbol": "BRBY_CFD.UK", "name": "BURBERRY GROUP PLC", "sector": "", "last_price": 1090.0, "change_1d_pct": 1.5370284117373068, "distance_from_ma200_pct": null, "distance_from_ma50_pct": -10.223781637880636, "volatility_20d_pct": 3625.500236594713, "market_cap_usd": null, "avg_daily_volume_usd": null, "days_to_next_earnings": null, "earnings_confirmed": null, "news_sentiment_score": null, "news_headlines_last_3": [], "data_quality_note": "snapshot_ok_prices_technicals_only"}], "output_schema": {"selected_stocks": [{"symbol": "string", "mean_reversion_score": "integer 0-100", "selection_reason": "short, concrete, indicator-based"}], "rejected_common_reasons": ["string"]}}Output JSON
{
"selected_stocks": [
{
"symbol": "VTY_CFD.UK",
"selection_reason": "Extreme 1-day drop -52.2%, heavily oversold vs MA50 (-43.6%) and MA200 (-45.8%).",
"mean_reversion_score": 95
},
{
"symbol": "PAGE_CFD.UK",
"selection_reason": "Severe 1-day drop -36.8%, significantly below MA50 (-31.7%) and MA200 (-40.6%).",
"mean_reversion_score": 90
},
{
"symbol": "OCDO_CFD.UK",
"selection_reason": "Large 1-day decline -27.7%, trading well below MA50 (-16.5%) and MA200 (-25.4%).",
"mean_reversion_score": 88
},
{
"symbol": "CBG_CFD.UK",
"selection_reason": "Sharp 1-day drop -26.6%, extended below MA50 (-22.1%) and MA200 (-13.4%).",
"mean_reversion_score": 85
},
{
"symbol": "MDM_CFD.FR",
"selection_reason": "Significant 1-day drop -23.8%, deeply oversold vs MA50 (-33.4%) and MA200 (-52.2%).",
"mean_reversion_score": 82
}
],
"rejected_common_reasons": [
"Insufficient price deviation for mean reversion setup",
"Positive daily momentum (not a short-term pullback)",
"High volatility outliers without clear directional mean-reversion signal",
"Data quality issues or missing technical indicators"
]
}#2201 • openrouter • z-ai/glm-4.7 • 2026-04-09T12:31:47.626854+00:00
System prompt
You are an Arena portfolio manager. You must follow the strategy rules strictly and output ONLY valid JSON. You are NOT allowed to invent prices/fundamentals/news/earnings. If a field is null/empty, treat it as unknown. Avoid overtrading: if changes are marginal, prefer HOLD. Do not churn.
User prompt
{"task": "stage2_portfolio_management", "region": "EU", "strategy": {"key": "meanrev-v1", "name": "Two-Stage LLM Mean-Reversion (Arena v1)", "rules": {"max_positions": 10, "max_buys_per_run": 2, "avoid_overtrading": true, "max_sells_per_run": 2, "max_gross_leverage": 3.0, "fixed_position_size": 3000.0, "universe_symbols_eu": [], "universe_symbols_us": []}}, "portfolio_constraints": {"initial_equity": 10000.0, "max_positions": 10, "fixed_position_size": 3000.0, "max_gross_leverage": 3.0, "overtrading_rules": ["Max 2 SELL actions per run unless risk event forces more", "Max 2 BUY actions per run", "If no clear improvement vs current holdings, output HOLD for everything"]}, "current_portfolio": [{"symbol": "ADBE_CFD.US", "qty": 0.0, "avg_price": 249.47, "last_price": 236.65, "unrealized_pnl": 0.0, "opened_at": "2026-03-14T18:06:47.909233+00:00"}, {"symbol": "AUTO_CFD.UK", "qty": 6.2137531068765535, "avg_price": 482.8, "last_price": 482.8, "unrealized_pnl": 0.0, "opened_at": "2026-03-19T18:04:14.272849+00:00"}, {"symbol": "BIG_CFD.FR", "qty": 0.0, "avg_price": 0.453, "last_price": 0.3, "unrealized_pnl": 0.0, "opened_at": "2026-02-26T18:07:22.382508+00:00"}, {"symbol": "BTRW_CFD.UK", "qty": 0.0, "avg_price": 259.8, "last_price": 255.0, "unrealized_pnl": 0.0, "opened_at": "2026-04-04T18:08:49.555685+00:00"}, {"symbol": "BYIT_CFD.UK", "qty": 0.0, "avg_price": 292.6, "last_price": 292.6, "unrealized_pnl": 0.0, "opened_at": "2026-02-19T00:47:27.070066+00:00"}, {"symbol": "CBG_CFD.UK", "qty": 8.748396127376648, "avg_price": 342.92, "last_price": 342.92, "unrealized_pnl": 0.0, "opened_at": "2026-03-19T18:04:14.272849+00:00"}, {"symbol": "CCL_CFD.UK", "qty": 0.0, "avg_price": 1945.9999999999998, "last_price": 1988.5, "unrealized_pnl": 0.0, "opened_at": "2026-03-06T18:02:13.212382+00:00"}, {"symbol": "CRWD_CFD.US", "qty": 0.0, "avg_price": 349.425, "last_price": 374.67, "unrealized_pnl": 0.0, "opened_at": "2026-02-24T18:14:37.115518+00:00"}, {"symbol": "ERA_CFD.FR", "qty": 0.0, "avg_price": 47.4, "last_price": 52.1, "unrealized_pnl": 0.0, "opened_at": "2026-02-19T17:33:27.020111+00:00"}, {"symbol": "FICO_CFD.US", "qty": 0.0, "avg_price": 1127.4099999999999, "last_price": 1160.795, "unrealized_pnl": 0.0, "opened_at": "2026-03-14T18:06:47.909233+00:00"}, {"symbol": "FUTR_CFD.UK", "qty": 10.55594651653765, "avg_price": 284.2, "last_price": 297.6, "unrealized_pnl": 141.44968332160488, "opened_at": "2026-02-19T00:47:27.070066+00:00"}, {"symbol": "HIK_CFD.UK", "qty": 2.3529411764705883, "avg_price": 1275.0, "last_price": 1325.0, "unrealized_pnl": 117.64705882352942, "opened_at": "2026-03-02T10:31:26.559356+00:00"}, {"symbol": "IWG_CFD.UK", "qty": 17.421602787456447, "avg_price": 172.2, "last_price": 172.2, "unrealized_pnl": 0.0, "opened_at": "2026-03-17T10:04:29.123574+00:00"}, {"symbol": "KGF_CFD.UK", "qty": 10.384215991692628, "avg_price": 288.9, "last_price": 303.9, "unrealized_pnl": 155.76323987538942, "opened_at": "2026-03-26T10:11:44.579260+00:00"}, {"symbol": "OCDO_CFD.UK", "qty": 0.0, "avg_price": 217.0, "last_price": 204.3, "unrealized_pnl": 0.0, "opened_at": "2026-02-16T17:30:52.485845+00:00"}, {"symbol": "PAGE_CFD.UK", "qty": 45.14672686230248, "avg_price": 132.9, "last_price": 132.9, "unrealized_pnl": 0.0, "opened_at": "2026-02-21T09:33:26.900894+00:00"}, {"symbol": "RMV_CFD.UK", "qty": 6.8807339449541285, "avg_price": 436.0, "last_price": 441.8, "unrealized_pnl": 39.90825688073402, "opened_at": "2026-02-21T09:33:26.900894+00:00"}, {"symbol": "THG_CFD.UK", "qty": 0.0, "avg_price": 34.98, "last_price": 34.98, "unrealized_pnl": 0.0, "opened_at": "2026-02-24T18:14:37.115518+00:00"}, {"symbol": "TRST_CFD.UK", "qty": 14.111006585136407, "avg_price": 212.6, "last_price": 212.6, "unrealized_pnl": 0.0, "opened_at": "2026-02-16T17:30:52.485845+00:00"}, {"symbol": "TUI1_CFD.DE", "qty": 0.0, "avg_price": 7.398000000000001, "last_price": 6.723, "unrealized_pnl": 0.0, "opened_at": "2026-03-02T10:31:26.559356+00:00"}, {"symbol": "VTY_CFD.UK", "qty": 0.0, "avg_price": 338.75, "last_price": 330.2, "unrealized_pnl": 0.0, "opened_at": "2026-03-17T10:04:29.123574+00:00"}, {"symbol": "XRX_CFD.US", "qty": 0.0, "avg_price": 1.73, "last_price": 1.83, "unrealized_pnl": 0.0, "opened_at": "2026-02-26T18:07:22.382508+00:00"}, {"symbol": "ZS_CFD.US", "qty": 0.0, "avg_price": 141.32, "last_price": 133.07, "unrealized_pnl": 0.0, "opened_at": "2026-02-22T17:33:48.338981+00:00"}], "candidates": [{"symbol": "VTY_CFD.UK", "mean_reversion_score": 95, "selection_reason": "Extreme 1-day drop -52.2%, heavily oversold vs MA50 (-43.6%) and MA200 (-45.8%)."}, {"symbol": "PAGE_CFD.UK", "mean_reversion_score": 90, "selection_reason": "Severe 1-day drop -36.8%, significantly below MA50 (-31.7%) and MA200 (-40.6%)."}, {"symbol": "OCDO_CFD.UK", "mean_reversion_score": 88, "selection_reason": "Large 1-day decline -27.7%, trading well below MA50 (-16.5%) and MA200 (-25.4%)."}, {"symbol": "CBG_CFD.UK", "mean_reversion_score": 85, "selection_reason": "Sharp 1-day drop -26.6%, extended below MA50 (-22.1%) and MA200 (-13.4%)."}, {"symbol": "MDM_CFD.FR", "mean_reversion_score": 82, "selection_reason": "Significant 1-day drop -23.8%, deeply oversold vs MA50 (-33.4%) and MA200 (-52.2%)."}], "output_schema": {"actions": {"sell": [{"symbol": "string", "reason": "string"}], "hold": [{"symbol": "string", "reason": "string"}], "buy": [{"symbol": "string", "position_size": "number (currency amount)", "reason": "string"}]}, "portfolio_rationale": "string"}}Output JSON
{
"raw": {
"id": "gen-1775737907-uDr4x7l6sV3EIIxkWvAx",
"model": "z-ai/glm-4.7-20251222",
"usage": {
"cost": 0.0103066,
"is_byok": false,
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"reasoning": "1. **Analyze the Request:**\n * **Role:** Arena portfolio manager.\n * **Task:** Stage 2 portfolio management.\n * **Region:** EU (though the portfolio contains UK and US symbols, the strategy seems to handle a mixed universe or the user provided a specific list).\n * **Strategy:** Two-Stage LLM Mean-Reversion (Arena v1).\n * **Rules:**\n * Max positions: 10.\n * Max buys per run: 2.\n * Max sells per run: 2.\n * Avoid overtrading (prefer HOLD if marginal).\n * Max gross leverage: 3.0.\n * Fixed position size: 3000.0 (currency amount).\n * Output: ONLY valid JSON.\n * No inventing prices/fundamentals/news.\n * **Current Portfolio:**\n * Active positions (qty > 0): AUTO_CFD.UK, CBG_CFD.UK, FUTR_CFD.UK, HIK_CFD.UK, IWG_CFD.UK, KGF_CFD.UK, PAGE_CFD.UK, RMV_CFD.UK, TRST_CFD.UK.\n * Inactive positions (qty = 0): ADBE_CFD.US, BIG_CFD.FR, BTRW_CFD.UK, BYIT_CFD.UK, CCL_CFD.UK, CRWD_CFD.US, ERA_CFD.FR, FICO_CFD.US, OCDO_CFD.UK, THG_CFD.UK, TUI1_CFD.DE, VTY_CFD.UK, XRX_CFD.US, ZS_CFD.US.\n * Total Active Positions: 9.\n * **Candidates (Mean Reversion Signals):**\n * VTY_CFD.UK (Score 95): Extreme drop -52.2%.\n * PAGE_CFD.UK (Score 90): Severe drop -36.8%. (Already held).\n * OCDO_CFD.UK (Score 88): Large decline -27.7%.\n * CBG_CFD.UK (Score 85): Sharp drop -26.6%. (Already held).\n * MDM_CFD.FR (Score 82): Significant drop -23.8%.\n\n2. **Evaluate Current Holdings vs. Strategy:**\n * The strategy is \"Mean Reversion\". This implies buying oversold assets and selling overbought ones (or closing positions that have reverted).\n * *Constraint Check:* Max positions = 10. Current active = 9. We have room for 1 more position.\n * *Constraint Check:* Max buys = 2. We can buy up to 2.\n * *Constraint Check:* Max sells = 2.\n\n3. **Analyze Candidates:**\n * **VTY_CFD.UK (Score 95):** Not currently held. Extreme oversold signal. Strong buy candidate.\n * **PAGE_CFD.UK (Score 90):** Currently held (Qty ~45). The signal says \"Severe 1-day drop -36.8%\". Wait, looking at the portfolio data: `avg_price: 132.9`, `last_price: 132.9`, `unrealized_pnl: 0`. This suggests the price hasn't moved since opening, or the data is static. However, the *candidate* data says \"Severe 1-day drop -36.8%\". This implies a fresh signal. Since we already hold it, we might want to add to it (if allowed) or just hold. The strategy usually implies entering new positions or exiting existing ones. Since it's already held, and the signal is strong, we should likely HOLD it (unless we want to double down, but fixed position size usually implies one entry per ticker or strict sizing). Let's assume we keep it.\n * **OCDO_CFD.UK (Score 88):** Not currently held. Strong signal. Buy candidate.\n * **CBG_CFD.UK (Score 85):** Currently held. Similar to PAGE. Hold.\n * **MDM_CFD.FR (Score 82):** Not currently held. Buy candidate.\n\n4. **Analyze Existing Holdings for Sells:**\n * We need to check if any existing holdings have \"reverted\" (i.e., gone up too much) or if we need to free up slots.\n * Current active holdings: AUTO, CBG, FUTR, HIK, IWG, KGF, PAGE, RMV, TRST.\n * We have 9 slots. We can buy 1 new one without selling (Max 10).\n * Let's look at PnL:\n * FUTR: +141\n * HIK: +117\n * KGF: +155\n * RMV: +39\n * Others: 0 PnL (likely just opened or flat).\n * The strategy is \"Mean Reversion\". Usually, you sell when the price reverts to the mean or becomes overbought. The PnLs are positive but relatively small compared to the position size (3000). The \"last_price\" vs \"avg_price\" for the profitable ones:\n * FUTR: 297.6 vs 284.2 (+4.7%)\n * HIK: 1325 vs 1275 (+3.9%)\n * KGF: 303.9 vs 288.9 (+5.2%)\n * These are modest gains. They haven't \"exploded\" upwards to justify a sell based on mean reversion *exit* logic (selling high). However, we might need to sell to make room for a *better* opportunity if we are full.\n * We are not full (9/10). We can add one.\n * Which buy is best? VTY (95) is the highest score.\n * Should we sell anything to buy OCDO (88) or MDM (82) as well?\n * Max buys is 2. We can buy VTY and OCDO if we sell 1 (to make room for the 2nd buy).\n * Or we just buy VTY and hold the rest.\n * Let's look at the \"avoid overtrading\" rule. \"If no clear improvement vs current holdings, output HOLD\".\n * VTY (95) is a very strong signal. It's an extreme drop. It fits the strategy perfectly.\n * OCDO (88) is also strong.\n * Let's check the \"universe\" logic. The prompt lists `universe_symbols_eu` and `us` as empty, but the portfolio has specific symbols. I must stick to the provided list.\n * **Decision on Buys:**\n * Buy VTY_CFD.UK (Score 95). It's the top candidate.\n * Buy OCDO_CFD.UK (Score 88). It's the next best candidate not held.\n * **Decision on Sells (to make room):**\n * We have 9 positions. Max 10. To buy 2, we need to sell 1.\n * Which one to sell? We should sell the one that is least likely to revert further or has already reverted.\n * Looking at PnL: KGF (+5.2%), FUTR (+4.7%), HIK (+3.9%).\n * Looking at flat positions: AUTO, CBG, IWG, PAGE, TRST.\n * PAGE and CBG are also in the candidate list with high scores (90 and 85), meaning they are dropping (or just dropped). We should keep them because they are currently \"oversold\" according to the candidate list (even though portfolio data shows flat PnL, the candidate signal implies recent action).\n * The flat ones (AUTO, IWG, TRST) are not in the candidate list. They might be stagnant.\n * However, selling a flat position to buy a dropping one (mean reversion) is the strategy.\n * Let's look at the \"candidates\" list again. It highlights specific drops.\n * If I have to sell one to make room for VTY and OCDO.\n * Which holding is the weakest? The ones with 0 PnL and no signal.\n * Let's pick one of the flat ones. AUTO_CFD.UK, IWG_CFD.UK, TRST_CFD.UK.\n * Let's pick AUTO_CFD.UK or TRST_CFD.UK. Let's go with TRST_CFD.UK (arbitrary choice among flat non-candidates) or maybe one with a slight profit that has \"reverted\".\n * Actually, looking at the constraints: \"Max 2 BUY actions per run\". \"Max 2 SELL actions per run\".\n * If I buy VTY (95), I fill the 10th slot.\n * If I also want to buy OCDO (88), I must sell one.\n * Is OCDO (88) better than my worst holding?\n * My worst holdings are likely the flat ones (AUTO, IWG, TRST) or the ones that have already moved up (KGF, FUTR, HIK). Since it's mean reversion, we want to buy low. The flat ones are neutral. The up ones are high risk (might revert down).\n * Selling a winner (FUTR/HIK/KGF) locks in profit but misses further upside. Selling a flat one (AUTO/IWG/TRST) cuts a neutral position for a potentially high-upside oversold position.\n * Let's look at the candidate list again. PAGE and CBG are held and are candidates (dropping). This suggests the market is moving down for these.\n * Let's prioritize the Buy of VTY (95).\n * Should I buy OCDO (88)? It requires a sell.\n * Let's check the \"avoid overtrading\" rule. \"If no clear improvement... output HOLD\".\n * VTY is a clear improvement (Score 95 vs no signal for others).\n * OCDO (88) is also good.\n * Let's try to execute 2 buys and 1 sell.\n * Sell: AUTO_CFD.UK (Qty 6.2, Flat PnL, not in candidate list). It's taking up a slot.\n * Buy: VTY_CFD.UK.\n * Buy: OCDO_CFD.UK.\n * Wait, let's re-read the \"avoid overtrading\" rule carefully. \"If no clear improvement vs current holdings, output HOLD for everything\".\n * Is VTY a clear improvement? Yes, score 95.\n * Is OCDO a clear improvement? Yes, score 88.\n * Is selling AUTO justified? It has no signal and is flat.\n * Let's refine the selection.\n * **Buy 1:** VTY_CFD.UK. Score 95. Extreme drop.\n * **Buy 2:** OCDO_CFD.UK. Score 88. Large decline.\n * **Sell 1:** AUTO_CFD.UK. Flat, no signal.\n * **Alternative Sell:** FUTR_CFD.UK or HIK_CFD.UK. They have positive PnL. In mean reversion, you buy low, sell high. These have gone up. They might be candidates to sell to lock in the \"reversion\". However, the gains are small (~4-5%). Usually, mean reversion sells happen when RSI is high or price is far above MA. We don't have that data, only PnL. But PnL indicates they moved up.\n * Let's look at the \"candidates\" list again. It only lists *buy* signals (oversold). It doesn't list *sell* signals (overbought).\n * Without explicit sell signals, I should be careful about selling winners unless I need the slot.\n * I need 1 slot to buy 2.\n * I will sell one of the flat, non-candidate positions. AUTO_CFD.UK seems like a good candidate to exit to free up capital/slot for the high-probability mean reversion plays (VTY, OCDO).\n\n * **Let's check the position sizing.**\n * Fixed position size: 3000.0.\n * Buy VTY: 3000.\n * Buy OCDO: 3000.\n * Sell AUTO: Current value is approx 6.21 * 482.8 = 3000. (Matches fixed size).\n * This works perfectly.\n\n * **What about PAGE and CBG?**\n * They are in the portfolio and in the candidate list.\n * PAGE: Score 90. We hold it. Action: HOLD.\n * CBG: Score 85. We hold it. Action: HOLD.\n\n * **Summary of Actions:**\n * Sell: AUTO_CFD.UK (Reason: Freeing up slot for higher-scoring mean reversion opportunities; current position is flat with no signal).\n * Buy: VTY_CFD.UK (Reason: Highest mean reversion score (95), extreme oversold conditions).\n * Buy: OCDO_CFD.UK (Reason: High mean reversion score (88), significant decline).\n\n * **Wait, check constraints again.**\n * Max positions: 10.\n * Current: 9.\n * Sell 1 -> 8.\n * Buy 2 -> 10.\n * Fits.\n\n * **Are there any other considerations?**\n * \"Avoid overtrading\". Is selling a flat position overtrading? No, it's portfolio rotation.\n * Is buying two overtrading? Max is 2.\n * Are the signals strong enough? 95 and 88 are very high scores.\n\n * **Let's double check the symbols.**\n * VTY_CFD.UK: Candidate.\n * OCDO_CFD.UK: Candidate.\n * AUTO_CFD.UK: Holding.\n\n * **Let's check the \"Hold\" list.**\n * All other holdings should be held.\n\n * **Refining the \"Sell\" choice:**\n * AUTO, IWG, TRST are all flat.\n * AUTO: Opened 2026-03-19.\n * IWG: Opened 2026-03-17.\n * TRST: Opened 2026-02-16.\n * TRST has been held the longest without movement (based on PnL=0). It might be \"dead money\". Selling TRST might be better than AUTO.\n * However, AUTO is also flat.\n * Let's stick with AUTO or TRST. I'll pick AUTO as it's arbitrary among the flat ones. Or maybe TRST because it's older.\n * Let's look at the \"Candidates\" list again. It mentions \"Extreme 1-day drop\". This implies volatility.\n * Let's just pick AUTO_CFD.UK to sell.\n\n * **Final check on JSON structure.**\n * `actions`: `sell` (list), `hold` (list), `buy` (list).\n * `portfolio_rationale`: string.\n\n * **Drafting the rationale:**\n * Strategy is Mean Reversion.\n * VTY (Score 95) and OCDO (Score 88) present strong oversold opportunities.\n * To accommodate these buys within the max 10 position limit, one existing position must be closed.\n * AUTO_CFD.UK is selected for sale as it is currently flat with no mean reversion signal, whereas the new entries offer higher expected upside based on the strategy scores.\n * Existing positions PAGE and CBG also show strong signals but are already held, so they are retained.\n\n * **Wait, one detail.**\n * The prompt says: \"You are NOT allowed to invent prices/fundamentals/news/earnings.\"\n * I am using the provided `candidates` data for the scores and reasons.\n * I am using the provided `current_portfolio` for holdings.\n\n * **Constructing the JSON.**\n * Sell: AUTO_CFD.UK.\n * Buy: VTY_CFD.UK (3000).\n * Buy: OCDO_CFD.UK (3000).\n * Hold: Everything else.\n\n * **Wait, is there any reason NOT to buy OCDO?**\n * Score 88 is high.\n * Max buys is 2.\n * If I only buy VTY, I have 10 positions.\n * If I buy VTY and OCDO, I have 11 positions (if I don't sell).\n * So I *must* sell one to buy both.\n * Is OCDO (88) better than AUTO (no score)? Yes.\n * Is OCDO (88) better than TRST (no score)? Yes.\n * Is OCDO (88) better than IWG (no score)? Yes.\n * Is OCDO (88) better than FUTR (+4.7% PnL)? FUTR has gone up. Mean reversion strategy usually sells things that go up. But FUTR isn't in the \"sell\" list (we don't have one). However, holding a winner is generally okay unless we need the slot. Selling a winner to buy a loser (mean reversion) is the core mechanic. But selling a flat position is safer for capital preservation if the loser keeps dropping.\n * Given the \"avoid overtrading\" rule, maybe I should just buy VTY and hold everything else?\n * \"If no clear improvement vs current holdings, output HOLD for everything\".\n * VTY is a clear improvement.\n * OCDO is a clear improvement over the flat holdings.\n * I will proceed with 1 sell, 2 buys.\n\n * **Wait, I need to list \"Hold\" for the others?**\n * The schema asks for `sell`, `hold`, `buy`.\n * It's cleaner to list the specific actions and maybe",
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"text": "1. **Analyze the Request:**\n * **Role:** Arena portfolio manager.\n * **Task:** Stage 2 portfolio management.\n * **Region:** EU (though the portfolio contains UK and US symbols, the strategy seems to handle a mixed universe or the user provided a specific list).\n * **Strategy:** Two-Stage LLM Mean-Reversion (Arena v1).\n * **Rules:**\n * Max positions: 10.\n * Max buys per run: 2.\n * Max sells per run: 2.\n * Avoid overtrading (prefer HOLD if marginal).\n * Max gross leverage: 3.0.\n * Fixed position size: 3000.0 (currency amount).\n * Output: ONLY valid JSON.\n * No inventing prices/fundamentals/news.\n * **Current Portfolio:**\n * Active positions (qty > 0): AUTO_CFD.UK, CBG_CFD.UK, FUTR_CFD.UK, HIK_CFD.UK, IWG_CFD.UK, KGF_CFD.UK, PAGE_CFD.UK, RMV_CFD.UK, TRST_CFD.UK.\n * Inactive positions (qty = 0): ADBE_CFD.US, BIG_CFD.FR, BTRW_CFD.UK, BYIT_CFD.UK, CCL_CFD.UK, CRWD_CFD.US, ERA_CFD.FR, FICO_CFD.US, OCDO_CFD.UK, THG_CFD.UK, TUI1_CFD.DE, VTY_CFD.UK, XRX_CFD.US, ZS_CFD.US.\n * Total Active Positions: 9.\n * **Candidates (Mean Reversion Signals):**\n * VTY_CFD.UK (Score 95): Extreme drop -52.2%.\n * PAGE_CFD.UK (Score 90): Severe drop -36.8%. (Already held).\n * OCDO_CFD.UK (Score 88): Large decline -27.7%.\n * CBG_CFD.UK (Score 85): Sharp drop -26.6%. (Already held).\n * MDM_CFD.FR (Score 82): Significant drop -23.8%.\n\n2. **Evaluate Current Holdings vs. Strategy:**\n * The strategy is \"Mean Reversion\". This implies buying oversold assets and selling overbought ones (or closing positions that have reverted).\n * *Constraint Check:* Max positions = 10. Current active = 9. We have room for 1 more position.\n * *Constraint Check:* Max buys = 2. We can buy up to 2.\n * *Constraint Check:* Max sells = 2.\n\n3. **Analyze Candidates:**\n * **VTY_CFD.UK (Score 95):** Not currently held. Extreme oversold signal. Strong buy candidate.\n * **PAGE_CFD.UK (Score 90):** Currently held (Qty ~45). The signal says \"Severe 1-day drop -36.8%\". Wait, looking at the portfolio data: `avg_price: 132.9`, `last_price: 132.9`, `unrealized_pnl: 0`. This suggests the price hasn't moved since opening, or the data is static. However, the *candidate* data says \"Severe 1-day drop -36.8%\". This implies a fresh signal. Since we already hold it, we might want to add to it (if allowed) or just hold. The strategy usually implies entering new positions or exiting existing ones. Since it's already held, and the signal is strong, we should likely HOLD it (unless we want to double down, but fixed position size usually implies one entry per ticker or strict sizing). Let's assume we keep it.\n * **OCDO_CFD.UK (Score 88):** Not currently held. Strong signal. Buy candidate.\n * **CBG_CFD.UK (Score 85):** Currently held. Similar to PAGE. Hold.\n * **MDM_CFD.FR (Score 82):** Not currently held. Buy candidate.\n\n4. **Analyze Existing Holdings for Sells:**\n * We need to check if any existing holdings have \"reverted\" (i.e., gone up too much) or if we need to free up slots.\n * Current active holdings: AUTO, CBG, FUTR, HIK, IWG, KGF, PAGE, RMV, TRST.\n * We have 9 slots. We can buy 1 new one without selling (Max 10).\n * Let's look at PnL:\n * FUTR: +141\n * HIK: +117\n * KGF: +155\n * RMV: +39\n * Others: 0 PnL (likely just opened or flat).\n * The strategy is \"Mean Reversion\". Usually, you sell when the price reverts to the mean or becomes overbought. The PnLs are positive but relatively small compared to the position size (3000). The \"last_price\" vs \"avg_price\" for the profitable ones:\n * FUTR: 297.6 vs 284.2 (+4.7%)\n * HIK: 1325 vs 1275 (+3.9%)\n * KGF: 303.9 vs 288.9 (+5.2%)\n * These are modest gains. They haven't \"exploded\" upwards to justify a sell based on mean reversion *exit* logic (selling high). However, we might need to sell to make room for a *better* opportunity if we are full.\n * We are not full (9/10). We can add one.\n * Which buy is best? VTY (95) is the highest score.\n * Should we sell anything to buy OCDO (88) or MDM (82) as well?\n * Max buys is 2. We can buy VTY and OCDO if we sell 1 (to make room for the 2nd buy).\n * Or we just buy VTY and hold the rest.\n * Let's look at the \"avoid overtrading\" rule. \"If no clear improvement vs current holdings, output HOLD\".\n * VTY (95) is a very strong signal. It's an extreme drop. It fits the strategy perfectly.\n * OCDO (88) is also strong.\n * Let's check the \"universe\" logic. The prompt lists `universe_symbols_eu` and `us` as empty, but the portfolio has specific symbols. I must stick to the provided list.\n * **Decision on Buys:**\n * Buy VTY_CFD.UK (Score 95). It's the top candidate.\n * Buy OCDO_CFD.UK (Score 88). It's the next best candidate not held.\n * **Decision on Sells (to make room):**\n * We have 9 positions. Max 10. To buy 2, we need to sell 1.\n * Which one to sell? We should sell the one that is least likely to revert further or has already reverted.\n * Looking at PnL: KGF (+5.2%), FUTR (+4.7%), HIK (+3.9%).\n * Looking at flat positions: AUTO, CBG, IWG, PAGE, TRST.\n * PAGE and CBG are also in the candidate list with high scores (90 and 85), meaning they are dropping (or just dropped). We should keep them because they are currently \"oversold\" according to the candidate list (even though portfolio data shows flat PnL, the candidate signal implies recent action).\n * The flat ones (AUTO, IWG, TRST) are not in the candidate list. They might be stagnant.\n * However, selling a flat position to buy a dropping one (mean reversion) is the strategy.\n * Let's look at the \"candidates\" list again. It highlights specific drops.\n * If I have to sell one to make room for VTY and OCDO.\n * Which holding is the weakest? The ones with 0 PnL and no signal.\n * Let's pick one of the flat ones. AUTO_CFD.UK, IWG_CFD.UK, TRST_CFD.UK.\n * Let's pick AUTO_CFD.UK or TRST_CFD.UK. Let's go with TRST_CFD.UK (arbitrary choice among flat non-candidates) or maybe one with a slight profit that has \"reverted\".\n * Actually, looking at the constraints: \"Max 2 BUY actions per run\". \"Max 2 SELL actions per run\".\n * If I buy VTY (95), I fill the 10th slot.\n * If I also want to buy OCDO (88), I must sell one.\n * Is OCDO (88) better than my worst holding?\n * My worst holdings are likely the flat ones (AUTO, IWG, TRST) or the ones that have already moved up (KGF, FUTR, HIK). Since it's mean reversion, we want to buy low. The flat ones are neutral. The up ones are high risk (might revert down).\n * Selling a winner (FUTR/HIK/KGF) locks in profit but misses further upside. Selling a flat one (AUTO/IWG/TRST) cuts a neutral position for a potentially high-upside oversold position.\n * Let's look at the candidate list again. PAGE and CBG are held and are candidates (dropping). This suggests the market is moving down for these.\n * Let's prioritize the Buy of VTY (95).\n * Should I buy OCDO (88)? It requires a sell.\n * Let's check the \"avoid overtrading\" rule. \"If no clear improvement... output HOLD\".\n * VTY is a clear improvement (Score 95 vs no signal for others).\n * OCDO (88) is also good.\n * Let's try to execute 2 buys and 1 sell.\n * Sell: AUTO_CFD.UK (Qty 6.2, Flat PnL, not in candidate list). It's taking up a slot.\n * Buy: VTY_CFD.UK.\n * Buy: OCDO_CFD.UK.\n * Wait, let's re-read the \"avoid overtrading\" rule carefully. \"If no clear improvement vs current holdings, output HOLD for everything\".\n * Is VTY a clear improvement? Yes, score 95.\n * Is OCDO a clear improvement? Yes, score 88.\n * Is selling AUTO justified? It has no signal and is flat.\n * Let's refine the selection.\n * **Buy 1:** VTY_CFD.UK. Score 95. Extreme drop.\n * **Buy 2:** OCDO_CFD.UK. Score 88. Large decline.\n * **Sell 1:** AUTO_CFD.UK. Flat, no signal.\n * **Alternative Sell:** FUTR_CFD.UK or HIK_CFD.UK. They have positive PnL. In mean reversion, you buy low, sell high. These have gone up. They might be candidates to sell to lock in the \"reversion\". However, the gains are small (~4-5%). Usually, mean reversion sells happen when RSI is high or price is far above MA. We don't have that data, only PnL. But PnL indicates they moved up.\n * Let's look at the \"candidates\" list again. It only lists *buy* signals (oversold). It doesn't list *sell* signals (overbought).\n * Without explicit sell signals, I should be careful about selling winners unless I need the slot.\n * I need 1 slot to buy 2.\n * I will sell one of the flat, non-candidate positions. AUTO_CFD.UK seems like a good candidate to exit to free up capital/slot for the high-probability mean reversion plays (VTY, OCDO).\n\n * **Let's check the position sizing.**\n * Fixed position size: 3000.0.\n * Buy VTY: 3000.\n * Buy OCDO: 3000.\n * Sell AUTO: Current value is approx 6.21 * 482.8 = 3000. (Matches fixed size).\n * This works perfectly.\n\n * **What about PAGE and CBG?**\n * They are in the portfolio and in the candidate list.\n * PAGE: Score 90. We hold it. Action: HOLD.\n * CBG: Score 85. We hold it. Action: HOLD.\n\n * **Summary of Actions:**\n * Sell: AUTO_CFD.UK (Reason: Freeing up slot for higher-scoring mean reversion opportunities; current position is flat with no signal).\n * Buy: VTY_CFD.UK (Reason: Highest mean reversion score (95), extreme oversold conditions).\n * Buy: OCDO_CFD.UK (Reason: High mean reversion score (88), significant decline).\n\n * **Wait, check constraints again.**\n * Max positions: 10.\n * Current: 9.\n * Sell 1 -> 8.\n * Buy 2 -> 10.\n * Fits.\n\n * **Are there any other considerations?**\n * \"Avoid overtrading\". Is selling a flat position overtrading? No, it's portfolio rotation.\n * Is buying two overtrading? Max is 2.\n * Are the signals strong enough? 95 and 88 are very high scores.\n\n * **Let's double check the symbols.**\n * VTY_CFD.UK: Candidate.\n * OCDO_CFD.UK: Candidate.\n * AUTO_CFD.UK: Holding.\n\n * **Let's check the \"Hold\" list.**\n * All other holdings should be held.\n\n * **Refining the \"Sell\" choice:**\n * AUTO, IWG, TRST are all flat.\n * AUTO: Opened 2026-03-19.\n * IWG: Opened 2026-03-17.\n * TRST: Opened 2026-02-16.\n * TRST has been held the longest without movement (based on PnL=0). It might be \"dead money\". Selling TRST might be better than AUTO.\n * However, AUTO is also flat.\n * Let's stick with AUTO or TRST. I'll pick AUTO as it's arbitrary among the flat ones. Or maybe TRST because it's older.\n * Let's look at the \"Candidates\" list again. It mentions \"Extreme 1-day drop\". This implies volatility.\n * Let's just pick AUTO_CFD.UK to sell.\n\n * **Final check on JSON structure.**\n * `actions`: `sell` (list), `hold` (list), `buy` (list).\n * `portfolio_rationale`: string.\n\n * **Drafting the rationale:**\n * Strategy is Mean Reversion.\n * VTY (Score 95) and OCDO (Score 88) present strong oversold opportunities.\n * To accommodate these buys within the max 10 position limit, one existing position must be closed.\n * AUTO_CFD.UK is selected for sale as it is currently flat with no mean reversion signal, whereas the new entries offer higher expected upside based on the strategy scores.\n * Existing positions PAGE and CBG also show strong signals but are already held, so they are retained.\n\n * **Wait, one detail.**\n * The prompt says: \"You are NOT allowed to invent prices/fundamentals/news/earnings.\"\n * I am using the provided `candidates` data for the scores and reasons.\n * I am using the provided `current_portfolio` for holdings.\n\n * **Constructing the JSON.**\n * Sell: AUTO_CFD.UK.\n * Buy: VTY_CFD.UK (3000).\n * Buy: OCDO_CFD.UK (3000).\n * Hold: Everything else.\n\n * **Wait, is there any reason NOT to buy OCDO?**\n * Score 88 is high.\n * Max buys is 2.\n * If I only buy VTY, I have 10 positions.\n * If I buy VTY and OCDO, I have 11 positions (if I don't sell).\n * So I *must* sell one to buy both.\n * Is OCDO (88) better than AUTO (no score)? Yes.\n * Is OCDO (88) better than TRST (no score)? Yes.\n * Is OCDO (88) better than IWG (no score)? Yes.\n * Is OCDO (88) better than FUTR (+4.7% PnL)? FUTR has gone up. Mean reversion strategy usually sells things that go up. But FUTR isn't in the \"sell\" list (we don't have one). However, holding a winner is generally okay unless we need the slot. Selling a winner to buy a loser (mean reversion) is the core mechanic. But selling a flat position is safer for capital preservation if the loser keeps dropping.\n * Given the \"avoid overtrading\" rule, maybe I should just buy VTY and hold everything else?\n * \"If no clear improvement vs current holdings, output HOLD for everything\".\n * VTY is a clear improvement.\n * OCDO is a clear improvement over the flat holdings.\n * I will proceed with 1 sell, 2 buys.\n\n * **Wait, I need to list \"Hold\" for the others?**\n * The schema asks for `sell`, `hold`, `buy`.\n * It's cleaner to list the specific actions and maybe",
"type": "reasoning.text",
"index": 0,
"format": "unknown"
}
]
},
"logprobs": null,
"finish_reason": "length",
"native_finish_reason": "length"
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],
"created": 1775737907,
"provider": "Google",
"system_fingerprint": null
}
}Selection logs
#1067 • stage1 • 2026-04-09T12:31:47.623895+00:00
{
"selected_stocks": [
{
"symbol": "VTY_CFD.UK",
"selection_reason": "Extreme 1-day drop -52.2%, heavily oversold vs MA50 (-43.6%) and MA200 (-45.8%).",
"mean_reversion_score": 95
},
{
"symbol": "PAGE_CFD.UK",
"selection_reason": "Severe 1-day drop -36.8%, significantly below MA50 (-31.7%) and MA200 (-40.6%).",
"mean_reversion_score": 90
},
{
"symbol": "OCDO_CFD.UK",
"selection_reason": "Large 1-day decline -27.7%, trading well below MA50 (-16.5%) and MA200 (-25.4%).",
"mean_reversion_score": 88
},
{
"symbol": "CBG_CFD.UK",
"selection_reason": "Sharp 1-day drop -26.6%, extended below MA50 (-22.1%) and MA200 (-13.4%).",
"mean_reversion_score": 85
},
{
"symbol": "MDM_CFD.FR",
"selection_reason": "Significant 1-day drop -23.8%, deeply oversold vs MA50 (-33.4%) and MA200 (-52.2%).",
"mean_reversion_score": 82
}
],
"rejected_common_reasons": [
"Insufficient price deviation for mean reversion setup",
"Positive daily momentum (not a short-term pullback)",
"High volatility outliers without clear directional mean-reversion signal",
"Data quality issues or missing technical indicators"
]
}