MarketWeatherForecast

Arena run #1130

meanrev-v1 • moonshotai • moonshotai/kimi-k2-thinking • US • failed
Arena
Run status
as_of: 2026-04-08T18:35:49.666210+00:00
started_at: 2026-04-08T18:43:26.261767+00:00
finished_at: 2026-04-08T18:48:07.199004+00:00
duration_ms: 280936
error: result expired
Inputs
{
  "as_of": "2026-04-08T18:35:49.666210+00:00",
  "dry_run": false,
  "selected": [
    {
      "symbol": "VTY_CFD.UK",
      "selection_reason": "52% single-day collapse, 44% below MA50, 221% vol - extreme oversold",
      "mean_reversion_score": 95
    },
    {
      "symbol": "VIRI_CFD.FR",
      "selection_reason": "32% single-day spike, 29% above MA50, 298% vol - extreme overbought",
      "mean_reversion_score": 94
    },
    {
      "symbol": "AUTO_CFD.UK",
      "selection_reason": "39% single-day crash, 32% below MA50, 130% vol - heavily oversold",
      "mean_reversion_score": 92
    },
    {
      "symbol": "IWG_CFD.UK",
      "selection_reason": "27% single-day drop, 22% below MA50, 154% vol - strongly oversold",
      "mean_reversion_score": 88
    },
    {
      "symbol": "BOY_CFD.UK",
      "selection_reason": "24% single-day surge, 19% above MA50, 103% vol - significantly overbought",
      "mean_reversion_score": 87
    }
  ],
  "simulate_only": false,
  "strict_replay": false,
  "universe_symbols": [
    "GEN_CFD.UK",
    "JUP_CFD.UK",
    "BOY_CFD.UK",
    "THG_CFD.UK",
    "CRST_CFD.UK",
    "FGP_CFD.UK",
    "VCT_CFD.UK",
    "DLN_CFD.UK",
    "TPK_CFD.UK",
    "DOM_CFD.UK",
    "BBY_CFD.UK",
    "IEP_CFD.BE",
    "MAB_CFD.UK",
    "WDAY_CFD.US",
    "IPO_CFD.UK",
    "IWG_CFD.UK",
    "VIRI_CFD.FR",
    "WKP_CFD.UK",
    "DOCS_CFD.UK",
    "ATG_CFD.UK",
    "TTK_CFD.DE",
    "VTY_CFD.UK",
    "HMSO_CFD.UK",
    "BRNK_CFD.DE",
    "MELE_CFD.BE",
    "LIO_CFD.UK",
    "MDV_CFD.PL",
    "AUTO_CFD.UK",
    "FRES_CFD.UK",
    "TEAM_CFD.US",
    "EXPN_CFD.UK",
    "III_CFD.UK",
    "CO_CFD.FR",
    "LTA_CFD.FR",
    "CPG_CFD.UK",
    "LLOY_CFD.UK",
    "BAR_CFD.BE",
    "SYNA_CFD.US",
    "TUI1_CFD.DE",
    "ITRK_CFD.UK",
    "IMI_CFD.UK",
    "VEEV_CFD.US",
    "CRBN_CFD.NL",
    "WEW_CFD.DE",
    "BYIT_CFD.UK",
    "UBI_CFD.FR",
    "TMUS_CFD.US",
    "LIGHT_CFD.NL",
    "WIZZ_CFD.UK",
    "LGEN_CFD.UK"
  ]
}
Outputs
{
  "actions": {
    "buy": [
      {
        "reason": "Strong oversold signal (score 88: 27% drop, 22% below MA50, 154% vol). Not in portfolio. Adding 3000 position.",
        "symbol": "IWG_CFD.UK",
        "position_size": 3000
      }
    ],
    "hold": [
      {
        "reason": "Positive momentum (+8.9% PnL). No overbought signal. Hold.",
        "symbol": "AML_CFD.UK"
      },
      {
        "reason": "Oversold candidate (score 92). Hold for mean reversion bounce.",
        "symbol": "AUTO_CFD.UK"
      },
      {
        "reason": "Flat price. No overbought signal. Hold.",
        "symbol": "CBG_CFD.UK"
      },
      {
        "reason": "Positive momentum (+4.7% PnL). No overbought signal. Hold.",
        "symbol": "FUTR_CFD.UK"
      },
      {
        "reason": "Strong positive momentum (+15.8% PnL). No overbought signal. Hold.",
        "symbol": "MCG_CFD.UK"
      },
      {
        "reason": "Small drawdown (-2.6%). No overbought signal. Hold for recovery.",
        "symbol": "MSLH_CFD.UK"
      },
      {
        "reason": "Drawdown (-9%) but no overbought signal. Mean reversion favors hold.",
        "symbol": "OCDO_CFD.UK"
      },
      {
        "reason": "Positive momentum (+4.5% PnL). No overbought signal. Hold.",
        "symbol": "PSN_CFD.UK"
      },
      {
        "reason": "Top oversold candidate (score 95). Hold for mean reversion.",
        "symbol": "VTY_CFD.UK"
      }
    ],
    "sell": []
  },
  "portfolio_rationale": "Portfolio has 9/10 positions. Top oversold candidate IWG not yet held (score 88). Adding 3000 position. All existing positions show no overbought signals; oversold holdings (AUTO score 92, VTY score 95) held for mean reversion bounce. No sells triggered."
}
Prompts & responses
#2185 • openrouter • moonshotai/kimi-k2-thinking • 2026-04-08T18:43:26.299753+00:00
System prompt
You are an Arena strategy executor. You must follow the strategy rules strictly and output ONLY valid JSON. You are NOT allowed to invent prices, fundamentals, earnings dates, or sentiment. If a field is null/empty, treat it as unknown. You are a constrained selector (no narrative).
User prompt
{"task": "stage1_universe_scan", "region": "US", "strategy": {"key": "meanrev-v1", "name": "Two-Stage LLM Mean-Reversion (Arena v1)", "rules": {"max_positions": 10, "max_buys_per_run": 2, "avoid_overtrading": true, "max_sells_per_run": 2, "max_gross_leverage": 3.0, "fixed_position_size": 3000.0, "universe_symbols_eu": [], "universe_symbols_us": []}}, "selection_rules": {"horizon": "2-10 trading days", "target": "short-term mean reversion in liquid equities", "constraints": ["Select exactly 5 candidates", "Avoid earnings within 5 trading days (if known)", "Avoid highly binary/event-driven moves (if known)", "Avoid sector concentration: max 1 per sector unless clearly justified (sector may be unknown)"]}, "universe": [{"symbol": "GEN_CFD.UK", "name": "GENUIT GROUP PLC", "sector": "", "last_price": 370.0, "change_1d_pct": 13.671274961597547, "distance_from_ma200_pct": 1.1384913963945476, "distance_from_ma50_pct": 7.521632190000593, "volatility_20d_pct": 112.82453945409682, "market_cap_usd": null, "avg_daily_volume_usd": null, "days_to_next_earnings": null, "earnings_confirmed": null, "news_sentiment_score": null, "news_headlines_last_3": [], "data_quality_note": "snapshot_ok_prices_technicals_only"}, {"symbol": "JUP_CFD.UK", "name": "JUPITER FUND MANAGEMENT", "sector": "", "last_price": 193.6, "change_1d_pct": 22.06809583858764, "distance_from_ma200_pct": 57.65825374753912, "distance_from_ma50_pct": 19.274691586205538, "volatility_20d_pct": 96.15961444303547, "market_cap_usd": null, "avg_daily_volume_usd": null, "days_to_next_earnings": null, "earnings_confirmed": null, "news_sentiment_score": null, "news_headlines_last_3": [], "data_quality_note": "snapshot_ok_prices_technicals_only"}, {"symbol": "BOY_CFD.UK", "name": "BODYCOTE PLC", "sector": "", "last_price": 775.4, "change_1d_pct": 24.163330664531625, "distance_from_ma200_pct": 28.652243313347768, "distance_from_ma50_pct": 18.63612217470385, "volatility_20d_pct": 103.46484337510964, "market_cap_usd": null, "avg_daily_volume_usd": null, "days_to_next_earnings": null, "earnings_confirmed": null, "news_sentiment_score": null, "news_headlines_last_3": [], "data_quality_note": "snapshot_ok_prices_technicals_only"}, {"symbol": "THG_CFD.UK", "name": "THG PLC", "sector": "", "last_price": 34.98, "change_1d_pct": -21.463852716659193, "distance_from_ma200_pct": 2.6990050116409536, "distance_from_ma50_pct": -18.650784422253118, "volatility_20d_pct": 150.5308117928466, "market_cap_usd": null, "avg_daily_volume_usd": null, "days_to_next_earnings": null, "earnings_confirmed": null, "news_sentiment_score": null, "news_headlines_last_3": [], "data_quality_note": "snapshot_ok_prices_technicals_only"}, {"symbol": "CRST_CFD.UK", "name": "CREST NICHOLSON HOLDINGS", "sector": "", "last_price": 118.83, "change_1d_pct": -12.817314746881891, "distance_from_ma200_pct": -28.150055914529826, "distance_from_ma50_pct": -15.848139991077058, "volatility_20d_pct": 236.5351415372937, "market_cap_usd": null, "avg_daily_volume_usd": null, "days_to_next_earnings": null, "earnings_confirmed": null, "news_sentiment_score": null, "news_headlines_last_3": [], "data_quality_note": "snapshot_ok_prices_technicals_only"}, {"symbol": "FGP_CFD.UK", "name": "FIRSTGROUP PLC", "sector": "", "last_price": 193.2, "change_1d_pct": 1.3109596224436304, "distance_from_ma200_pct": -4.044842646206826, "distance_from_ma50_pct": 1.7250076083144883, "volatility_20d_pct": 88.3516119820011, "market_cap_usd": null, "avg_daily_volume_usd": null, "days_to_next_earnings": null, "earnings_confirmed": null, "news_sentiment_score": null, "news_headlines_last_3": [], "data_quality_note": "snapshot_ok_prices_technicals_only"}, {"symbol": "VCT_CFD.UK", "name": "VICTREX PLC", "sector": "", "last_price": 635.0, "change_1d_pct": -9.285714285714286, "distance_from_ma200_pct": -11.261564295119154, "distance_from_ma50_pct": -2.9181133396627645, "volatility_20d_pct": 130.4010909373053, "market_cap_usd": null, "avg_daily_volume_usd": null, "days_to_next_earnings": null, "earnings_confirmed": null, "news_sentiment_score": null, "news_headlines_last_3": [], "data_quality_note": "snapshot_ok_prices_technicals_only"}, {"symbol": "DLN_CFD.UK", "name": "DERWENT LONDON PLC", "sector": "", "last_price": 1953.0, "change_1d_pct": 10.401356698699837, "distance_from_ma200_pct": 5.069478604951705, "distance_from_ma50_pct": 12.150447212111025, "volatility_20d_pct": 115.39088732649292, "market_cap_usd": null, "avg_daily_volume_usd": null, "days_to_next_earnings": null, "earnings_confirmed": null, "news_sentiment_score": null, "news_headlines_last_3": [], "data_quality_note": "snapshot_ok_prices_technicals_only"}, {"symbol": "TPK_CFD.UK", "name": "TRAVIS PERKINS PLC", "sector": "", "last_price": 601.57, "change_1d_pct": -1.21029986533977, "distance_from_ma200_pct": 0.5267641208837714, "distance_from_ma50_pct": -4.983077425595306, "volatility_20d_pct": 108.19399806448348, "market_cap_usd": null, "avg_daily_volume_usd": null, "days_to_next_earnings": null, "earnings_confirmed": null, "news_sentiment_score": null, "news_headlines_last_3": [], "data_quality_note": "snapshot_ok_prices_technicals_only"}, {"symbol": "DOM_CFD.UK", "name": "DOMINO'S PIZZA GROUP PLC", "sector": "", "last_price": 183.13, "change_1d_pct": -0.3102885138813294, "distance_from_ma200_pct": -15.070952368916624, "distance_from_ma50_pct": 1.0777282376278619, "volatility_20d_pct": 87.92203351330001, "market_cap_usd": null, "avg_daily_volume_usd": null, "days_to_next_earnings": null, "earnings_confirmed": null, "news_sentiment_score": null, "news_headlines_last_3": [], "data_quality_note": "snapshot_ok_prices_technicals_only"}, {"symbol": "BBY_CFD.UK", "name": "BALFOUR BEATTY PLC", "sector": "", "last_price": 759.18, "change_1d_pct": 5.222453222453205, "distance_from_ma200_pct": 33.313724414201815, "distance_from_ma50_pct": 8.832962232591, "volatility_20d_pct": 54.25956465831767, "market_cap_usd": null, "avg_daily_volume_usd": null, "days_to_next_earnings": null, "earnings_confirmed": null, "news_sentiment_score": null, "news_headlines_last_3": [], "data_quality_note": "snapshot_ok_prices_technicals_only"}, {"symbol": "IEP_CFD.BE", "name": "IEP Invest NV", "sector": "", "last_price": 5.4, "change_1d_pct": 0.0, "distance_from_ma200_pct": 0.9951765451794659, "distance_from_ma50_pct": 0.5657756042326989, "volatility_20d_pct": 138.39532879660115, "market_cap_usd": null, "avg_daily_volume_usd": null, "days_to_next_earnings": null, "earnings_confirmed": null, "news_sentiment_score": null, "news_headlines_last_3": [], "data_quality_note": "snapshot_ok_prices_technicals_only"}, {"symbol": "MAB_CFD.UK", "name": "MITCHELLS & BUTLERS PLC", "sector": "", "last_price": 292.81, "change_1d_pct": 14.37890625, "distance_from_ma200_pct": 11.595067041457764, "distance_from_ma50_pct": 10.935906392690597, "volatility_20d_pct": 118.87119977937589, "market_cap_usd": null, "avg_daily_volume_usd": null, "days_to_next_earnings": null, "earnings_confirmed": null, "news_sentiment_score": null, "news_headlines_last_3": [], "data_quality_note": "snapshot_ok_prices_technicals_only"}, {"symbol": "WDAY_CFD.US", "name": "", "sector": "", "last_price": 122.27, "change_1d_pct": -6.664122137404583, "distance_from_ma200_pct": -40.48215925099131, "distance_from_ma50_pct": -14.528062365783834, "volatility_20d_pct": 85.73404610436025, "market_cap_usd": null, "avg_daily_volume_usd": null, "days_to_next_earnings": null, "earnings_confirmed": null, "news_sentiment_score": null, "news_headlines_last_3": [], "data_quality_note": "snapshot_ok_prices_technicals_only"}, {"symbol": "IPO_CFD.UK", "name": "IP GROUP PLC", "sector": "", "last_price": 57.6, "change_1d_pct": -1.873935264054516, "distance_from_ma200_pct": 10.233643652522883, "distance_from_ma50_pct": -2.027486732888828, "volatility_20d_pct": 89.82123635439407, "market_cap_usd": null, "avg_daily_volume_usd": null, "days_to_next_earnings": null, "earnings_confirmed": null, "news_sentiment_score": null, "news_headlines_last_3": [], "data_quality_note": "snapshot_ok_prices_technicals_only"}, {"symbol": "IWG_CFD.UK", "name": "IWG PLC", "sector": "", "last_price": 177.0, "change_1d_pct": -26.786896095301127, "distance_from_ma200_pct": -17.645939421376646, "distance_from_ma50_pct": -22.14236071400294, "volatility_20d_pct": 154.02502086657427, "market_cap_usd": null, "avg_daily_volume_usd": null, "days_to_next_earnings": null, "earnings_confirmed": null, "news_sentiment_score": null, "news_headlines_last_3": [], "data_quality_note": "snapshot_ok_prices_technicals_only"}, {"symbol": "VIRI_CFD.FR", "name": "VIRIDIEN", "sector": "", "last_price": 127.1, "change_1d_pct": 32.258064516129025, "distance_from_ma200_pct": 86.88026988392838, "distance_from_ma50_pct": 29.097132641971314, "volatility_20d_pct": 297.97668648307325, "market_cap_usd": null, "avg_daily_volume_usd": null, "days_to_next_earnings": null, "earnings_confirmed": null, "news_sentiment_score": null, "news_headlines_last_3": [], "data_quality_note": "snapshot_ok_prices_technicals_only"}, {"symbol": "WKP_CFD.UK", "name": "WORKSPACE GROUP PLC", "sector": "", "last_price": 423.0, "change_1d_pct": 3.6764705882353033, "distance_from_ma200_pct": 1.8640028868691871, "distance_from_ma50_pct": 5.808194506978848, "volatility_20d_pct": 70.2233148398582, "market_cap_usd": null, "avg_daily_volume_usd": null, "days_to_next_earnings": null, "earnings_confirmed": null, "news_sentiment_score": null, "news_headlines_last_3": [], "data_quality_note": "snapshot_ok_prices_technicals_only"}, {"symbol": "DOCS_CFD.UK", "name": "DR. MARTENS PLC", "sector": "", "last_price": 64.5, "change_1d_pct": -3.5153328347045543, "distance_from_ma200_pct": -14.829841246785492, "distance_from_ma50_pct": -11.320702834987761, "volatility_20d_pct": 128.30568371469687, "market_cap_usd": null, "avg_daily_volume_usd": null, "days_to_next_earnings": null, "earnings_confirmed": null, "news_sentiment_score": null, "news_headlines_last_3": [], "data_quality_note": "snapshot_ok_prices_technicals_only"}, {"symbol": "ATG_CFD.UK", "name": "AUCTION TECHNOLOGY GROUP", "sector": "", "last_price": 326.5, "change_1d_pct": 12.006861063464846, "distance_from_ma200_pct": -24.987260470422935, "distance_from_ma50_pct": 5.84429056770146, "volatility_20d_pct": 172.45012969704524, "market_cap_usd": null, "avg_daily_volume_usd": null, "days_to_next_earnings": null, "earnings_confirmed": null, "news_sentiment_score": null, "news_headlines_last_3": [], "data_quality_note": "snapshot_ok_prices_technicals_only"}, {"symbol": "TTK_CFD.DE", "name": "TAKKT AG", "sector": "", "last_price": 2.57, "change_1d_pct": -0.7338740826574042, "distance_from_ma200_pct": -40.87128576194365, "distance_from_ma50_pct": -16.848930360170332, "volatility_20d_pct": 129.01714408762436, "market_cap_usd": null, "avg_daily_volume_usd": null, "days_to_next_earnings": null, "earnings_confirmed": null, "news_sentiment_score": null, "news_headlines_last_3": [], "data_quality_note": "snapshot_ok_prices_technicals_only"}, {"symbol": "VTY_CFD.UK", "name": "VISTRY GROUP PLC", "sector": "", "last_price": 336.5, "change_1d_pct": -52.24240703945502, "distance_from_ma200_pct": -45.76092188057602, "distance_from_ma50_pct": -43.644091924608695, "volatility_20d_pct": 220.52645545975528, "market_cap_usd": null, "avg_daily_volume_usd": null, "days_to_next_earnings": null, "earnings_confirmed": null, "news_sentiment_score": null, "news_headlines_last_3": [], "data_quality_note": "snapshot_ok_prices_technicals_only"}, {"symbol": "HMSO_CFD.UK", "name": "HAMMERSON PLC", "sector": "", "last_price": 355.4, "change_1d_pct": 14.129736673089276, "distance_from_ma200_pct": 22.516025502913806, "distance_from_ma50_pct": 10.006914897239172, "volatility_20d_pct": 87.54938293511039, "market_cap_usd": null, "avg_daily_volume_usd": null, "days_to_next_earnings": null, "earnings_confirmed": null, "news_sentiment_score": null, "news_headlines_last_3": [], "data_quality_note": "snapshot_ok_prices_technicals_only"}, {"symbol": "BRNK_CFD.DE", "name": "Branicks Group AG", "sector": "", "last_price": 1.4, "change_1d_pct": -0.7795889440113446, "distance_from_ma200_pct": -25.976449936286873, "distance_from_ma50_pct": -16.890271412627932, "volatility_20d_pct": 210.0912237919874, "market_cap_usd": null, "avg_daily_volume_usd": null, "days_to_next_earnings": null, "earnings_confirmed": null, "news_sentiment_score": null, "news_headlines_last_3": [], "data_quality_note": "snapshot_ok_prices_technicals_only"}, {"symbol": "MELE_CFD.BE", "name": "Melexis", "sector": "", "last_price": 56.7, "change_1d_pct": 2.8105167724388203, "distance_from_ma200_pct": -7.6282226570375204, "distance_from_ma50_pct": 1.7787040178355085, "volatility_20d_pct": 86.76068560618484, "market_cap_usd": null, "avg_daily_volume_usd": null, "days_to_next_earnings": null, "earnings_confirmed": null, "news_sentiment_score": null, "news_headlines_last_3": [], "data_quality_note": "snapshot_ok_prices_technicals_only"}, {"symbol": "LIO_CFD.UK", "name": "LIONTRUST ASSET MANAGEMENT", "sector": "", "last_price": 259.0, "change_1d_pct": 9.282700421940927, "distance_from_ma200_pct": -20.255122030446227, "distance_from_ma50_pct": 1.3575652269196326, "volatility_20d_pct": 159.60042022323034, "market_cap_usd": null, "avg_daily_volume_usd": null, "days_to_next_earnings": null, "earnings_confirmed": null, "news_sentiment_score": null, "news_headlines_last_3": [], "data_quality_note": "snapshot_ok_prices_technicals_only"}, {"symbol": "MDV_CFD.PL", "name": "Modivo S.A.", "sector": "", "last_price": 87.48, "change_1d_pct": -5.671770541298249, "distance_from_ma200_pct": -40.86640051589807, "distance_from_ma50_pct": -17.445841527723783, "volatility_20d_pct": 81.27094889486109, "market_cap_usd": null, "avg_daily_volume_usd": null, "days_to_next_earnings": null, "earnings_confirmed": null, "news_sentiment_score": null, "news_headlines_last_3": [], "data_quality_note": "snapshot_ok_prices_technicals_only"}, {"symbol": "AUTO_CFD.UK", "name": "AUTOTRADER GROUP PLC", "sector": "", "last_price": 490.4, "change_1d_pct": -38.63326367424575, "distance_from_ma200_pct": -37.426260695289436, "distance_from_ma50_pct": -31.896720766000808, "volatility_20d_pct": 130.06763966702516, "market_cap_usd": null, "avg_daily_volume_usd": null, "days_to_next_earnings": null, "earnings_confirmed": null, "news_sentiment_score": null, "news_headlines_last_3": [], "data_quality_note": "snapshot_ok_prices_technicals_only"}, {"symbol": "FRES_CFD.UK", "name": "FRESNILLO PLC", "sector": "", "last_price": 3647.0, "change_1d_pct": 10.114734299516904, "distance_from_ma200_pct": 37.324458289936224, "distance_from_ma50_pct": -0.3138405663245303, "volatility_20d_pct": 135.84729509818166, "market_cap_usd": null, "avg_daily_volume_usd": null, "days_to_next_earnings": null, "earnings_confirmed": null, "news_sentiment_score": null, "news_headlines_last_3": [], "data_quality_note": "snapshot_ok_prices_technicals_only"}, {"symbol": "TEAM_CFD.US", "name": "", "sector": "", "last_price": 64.54, "change_1d_pct": -5.588063194850779, "distance_from_ma200_pct": -55.746311306940875, "distance_from_ma50_pct": -21.663539196147006, "volatility_20d_pct": 127.56293520968964, "market_cap_usd": null, "avg_daily_volume_usd": null, "days_to_next_earnings": null, "earnings_confirmed": null, "news_sentiment_score": null, "news_headlines_last_3": [], "data_quality_note": "snapshot_ok_prices_technicals_only"}, {"symbol": "EXPN_CFD.UK", "name": "EXPERIAN PLC", "sector": "", "last_price": 2630.0, "change_1d_pct": -2.66469282013323, "distance_from_ma200_pct": -23.735371889742517, "distance_from_ma50_pct": -3.814856398872113, "volatility_20d_pct": 116.50608780776388, "market_cap_usd": null, "avg_daily_volume_usd": null, "days_to_next_earnings": null, "earnings_confirmed": null, "news_sentiment_score": null, "news_headlines_last_3": [], "data_quality_note": "snapshot_ok_prices_technicals_only"}, {"symbol": "III_CFD.UK", "name": "3I GROUP PLC", "sector": "", "last_price": 2715.5, "change_1d_pct": 9.18777643747486, "distance_from_ma200_pct": -25.498347602459738, "distance_from_ma50_pct": -11.210002811982978, "volatility_20d_pct": 107.76093142350246, "market_cap_usd": null, "avg_daily_volume_usd": null, "days_to_next_earnings": null, "earnings_confirmed": null, "news_sentiment_score": null, "news_headlines_last_3": [], "data_quality_note": "snapshot_ok_prices_technicals_only"}, {"symbol": "CO_CFD.FR", "name": "Casino Guichard Perrachon", "sector": "", "last_price": 0.162, "change_1d_pct": -0.6134969325153339, "distance_from_ma200_pct": -54.01907356948228, "distance_from_ma50_pct": -20.400943396226413, "volatility_20d_pct": 149.7796191854023, "market_cap_usd": null, "avg_daily_volume_usd": null, "days_to_next_earnings": null, "earnings_confirmed": null, "news_sentiment_score": null, "news_headlines_last_3": [], "data_quality_note": "snapshot_ok_prices_technicals_only"}, {"symbol": "LTA_CFD.FR", "name": "ALTAMIR", "sector": "", "last_price": 24.3, "change_1d_pct": -5.263157894736836, "distance_from_ma200_pct": -13.983001200344214, "distance_from_ma50_pct": -12.497263288892979, "volatility_20d_pct": 84.62992206881624, "market_cap_usd": null, "avg_daily_volume_usd": null, "days_to_next_earnings": null, "earnings_confirmed": null, "news_sentiment_score": null, "news_headlines_last_3": [], "data_quality_note": "snapshot_ok_prices_technicals_only"}, {"symbol": "CPG_CFD.UK", "name": "COMPASS GROUP PLC", "sector": "", "last_price": 29.67, "change_1d_pct": -98.59183673469389, "distance_from_ma200_pct": -98.77568763223537, "distance_from_ma50_pct": -98.59212699574421, "volatility_20d_pct": 601.9386788356263, "market_cap_usd": null, "avg_daily_volume_usd": null, "days_to_next_earnings": null, "earnings_confirmed": null, "news_sentiment_score": null, "news_headlines_last_3": [], "data_quality_note": "snapshot_ok_prices_technicals_only"}, {"symbol": "LLOY_CFD.UK", "name": "LLOYDS BANKING GROUP PLC", "sector": "", "last_price": 103.58, "change_1d_pct": 12.17240632445311, "distance_from_ma200_pct": 14.827846916897824, "distance_from_ma50_pct": 3.528856744768083, "volatility_20d_pct": 90.07258422165947, "market_cap_usd": null, "avg_daily_volume_usd": null, "days_to_next_earnings": null, "earnings_confirmed": null, "news_sentiment_score": null, "news_headlines_last_3": [], "data_quality_note": "snapshot_ok_prices_technicals_only"}, {"symbol": "BAR_CFD.BE", "name": "Barco", "sector": "", "last_price": 9.72, "change_1d_pct": 1.6204913748039784, "distance_from_ma200_pct": -21.893362743857235, "distance_from_ma50_pct": -8.395910612503387, "volatility_20d_pct": 63.24890264439872, "market_cap_usd": null, "avg_daily_volume_usd": null, "days_to_next_earnings": null, "earnings_confirmed": null, "news_sentiment_score": null, "news_headlines_last_3": [], "data_quality_note": "snapshot_ok_prices_technicals_only"}, {"symbol": "SYNA_CFD.US", "name": "SYNAPTICS INC", "sector": "", "last_price": 76.34, "change_1d_pct": 4.862637362637368, "distance_from_ma200_pct": 4.86991199252147, "distance_from_ma50_pct": -3.5760478557859354, "volatility_20d_pct": 104.14240803201646, "market_cap_usd": null, "avg_daily_volume_usd": null, "days_to_next_earnings": null, "earnings_confirmed": null, "news_sentiment_score": null, "news_headlines_last_3": [], "data_quality_note": "snapshot_ok_prices_technicals_only"}, {"symbol": "TUI1_CFD.DE", "name": "Tui AG", "sector": "", "last_price": 7.29, "change_1d_pct": 8.449866111276405, "distance_from_ma200_pct": -8.832094104287835, "distance_from_ma50_pct": -5.536420957697419, "volatility_20d_pct": 105.90099658136496, "market_cap_usd": null, "avg_daily_volume_usd": null, "days_to_next_earnings": null, "earnings_confirmed": null, "news_sentiment_score": null, "news_headlines_last_3": [], "data_quality_note": "snapshot_ok_prices_technicals_only"}, {"symbol": "ITRK_CFD.UK", "name": "INTERTEK GROUP PLC", "sector": "", "last_price": 3883.0, "change_1d_pct": -12.97624383684447, "distance_from_ma200_pct": -17.024253385492727, "distance_from_ma50_pct": -12.63260527771063, "volatility_20d_pct": 103.20771331354975, "market_cap_usd": null, "avg_daily_volume_usd": null, "days_to_next_earnings": null, "earnings_confirmed": null, "news_sentiment_score": null, "news_headlines_last_3": [], "data_quality_note": "snapshot_ok_prices_technicals_only"}, {"symbol": "IMI_CFD.UK", "name": "IMI PLC", "sector": "", "last_price": 2630.0, "change_1d_pct": -4.014598540145986, "distance_from_ma200_pct": 18.232876148230037, "distance_from_ma50_pct": 0.6097101453378162, "volatility_20d_pct": 99.14910574361261, "market_cap_usd": null, "avg_daily_volume_usd": null, "days_to_next_earnings": null, "earnings_confirmed": null, "news_sentiment_score": null, "news_headlines_last_3": [], "data_quality_note": "snapshot_ok_prices_technicals_only"}, {"symbol": "VEEV_CFD.US", "name": "", "sector": "", "last_price": 169.64, "change_1d_pct": -2.9630477062121074, "distance_from_ma200_pct": -31.523507107302105, "distance_from_ma50_pct": -8.030971508250861, "volatility_20d_pct": 85.43764940929834, "market_cap_usd": null, "avg_daily_volume_usd": null, "days_to_next_earnings": null, "earnings_confirmed": null, "news_sentiment_score": null, "news_headlines_last_3": [], "data_quality_note": "snapshot_ok_prices_technicals_only"}, {"symbol": "CRBN_CFD.NL", "name": "Corbion", "sector": "", "last_price": 21.32, "change_1d_pct": 0.0, "distance_from_ma200_pct": null, "distance_from_ma50_pct": 10.465176526668118, "volatility_20d_pct": 1678.2965924693424, "market_cap_usd": null, "avg_daily_volume_usd": null, "days_to_next_earnings": null, "earnings_confirmed": null, "news_sentiment_score": null, "news_headlines_last_3": [], "data_quality_note": "snapshot_ok_prices_technicals_only"}, {"symbol": "WEW_CFD.DE", "name": "Westwing Group AG", "sector": "", "last_price": 14.35, "change_1d_pct": 5.128205128205132, "distance_from_ma200_pct": 14.103330704053318, "distance_from_ma50_pct": -10.396391378571824, "volatility_20d_pct": 107.88117479279897, "market_cap_usd": null, "avg_daily_volume_usd": null, "days_to_next_earnings": null, "earnings_confirmed": null, "news_sentiment_score": null, "news_headlines_last_3": [], "data_quality_note": "snapshot_ok_prices_technicals_only"}, {"symbol": "BYIT_CFD.UK", "name": "BYTES TECHNOLOGY GROUP PLC", "sector": "", "last_price": 292.6, "change_1d_pct": -15.67723342939481, "distance_from_ma200_pct": -29.736098535636412, "distance_from_ma50_pct": -16.205740966343107, "volatility_20d_pct": 89.06390671800419, "market_cap_usd": null, "avg_daily_volume_usd": null, "days_to_next_earnings": null, "earnings_confirmed": null, "news_sentiment_score": null, "news_headlines_last_3": [], "data_quality_note": "snapshot_ok_prices_technicals_only"}, {"symbol": "UBI_CFD.FR", "name": "UBISoft Entertainment", "sector": "", "last_price": 4.033, "change_1d_pct": 3.5961983046493895, "distance_from_ma200_pct": -43.34922261451835, "distance_from_ma50_pct": -2.2364650955333576, "volatility_20d_pct": 112.31820070188787, "market_cap_usd": null, "avg_daily_volume_usd": null, "days_to_next_earnings": null, "earnings_confirmed": null, "news_sentiment_score": null, "news_headlines_last_3": [], "data_quality_note": "snapshot_ok_prices_technicals_only"}, {"symbol": "TMUS_CFD.US", "name": "", "sector": "", "last_price": 197.57, "change_1d_pct": -2.318797587263921, "distance_from_ma200_pct": -10.15955920570082, "distance_from_ma50_pct": -5.488434926369279, "volatility_20d_pct": 49.48007005655536, "market_cap_usd": null, "avg_daily_volume_usd": null, "days_to_next_earnings": null, "earnings_confirmed": null, "news_sentiment_score": null, "news_headlines_last_3": [], "data_quality_note": "snapshot_ok_prices_technicals_only"}, {"symbol": "LIGHT_CFD.NL", "name": "SIGNIFY NV", "sector": "", "last_price": 19.315, "change_1d_pct": 4.2926565874730205, "distance_from_ma200_pct": -8.476155230885063, "distance_from_ma50_pct": 0.5146725922533957, "volatility_20d_pct": 63.103018017765514, "market_cap_usd": null, "avg_daily_volume_usd": null, "days_to_next_earnings": null, "earnings_confirmed": null, "news_sentiment_score": null, "news_headlines_last_3": [], "data_quality_note": "snapshot_ok_prices_technicals_only"}, {"symbol": "WIZZ_CFD.UK", "name": "WIZZ AIR HOLDINGS PLC", "sector": "", "last_price": 956.5, "change_1d_pct": 8.87877063175868, "distance_from_ma200_pct": -18.339005990621494, "distance_from_ma50_pct": -15.753192879123413, "volatility_20d_pct": 214.84880940333238, "market_cap_usd": null, "avg_daily_volume_usd": null, "days_to_next_earnings": null, "earnings_confirmed": null, "news_sentiment_score": null, "news_headlines_last_3": [], "data_quality_note": "snapshot_ok_prices_technicals_only"}, {"symbol": "LGEN_CFD.UK", "name": "LEGAL & GENERAL GROUP PLC", "sector": "", "last_price": 263.45, "change_1d_pct": 6.272690601048803, "distance_from_ma200_pct": 4.92575541963729, "distance_from_ma50_pct": 1.9227004621630517, "volatility_20d_pct": 74.46258537750292, "market_cap_usd": null, "avg_daily_volume_usd": null, "days_to_next_earnings": null, "earnings_confirmed": null, "news_sentiment_score": null, "news_headlines_last_3": [], "data_quality_note": "snapshot_ok_prices_technicals_only"}], "output_schema": {"selected_stocks": [{"symbol": "string", "mean_reversion_score": "integer 0-100", "selection_reason": "short, concrete, indicator-based"}], "rejected_common_reasons": ["string"]}}
Output JSON
{
  "selected_stocks": [
    {
      "symbol": "VTY_CFD.UK",
      "selection_reason": "52% single-day collapse, 44% below MA50, 221% vol - extreme oversold",
      "mean_reversion_score": 95
    },
    {
      "symbol": "VIRI_CFD.FR",
      "selection_reason": "32% single-day spike, 29% above MA50, 298% vol - extreme overbought",
      "mean_reversion_score": 94
    },
    {
      "symbol": "AUTO_CFD.UK",
      "selection_reason": "39% single-day crash, 32% below MA50, 130% vol - heavily oversold",
      "mean_reversion_score": 92
    },
    {
      "symbol": "IWG_CFD.UK",
      "selection_reason": "27% single-day drop, 22% below MA50, 154% vol - strongly oversold",
      "mean_reversion_score": 88
    },
    {
      "symbol": "BOY_CFD.UK",
      "selection_reason": "24% single-day surge, 19% above MA50, 103% vol - significantly overbought",
      "mean_reversion_score": 87
    }
  ],
  "rejected_common_reasons": [
    "Insufficient magnitude of 1-day move (<20%) for high-conviction mean reversion setup",
    "Distance from MA50 too small (<15%) to indicate clear oversold/overbought condition",
    "Volatility too low (<100%) to provide adequate 2-10 day reversion opportunity",
    "Less extreme compared to selected candidates with superior technical setups",
    "Earnings timing unknown - cannot verify 5-day buffer requirement"
  ]
}
#2186 • openrouter • moonshotai/kimi-k2-thinking • 2026-04-08T18:45:13.260014+00:00
System prompt
You are an Arena portfolio manager. You must follow the strategy rules strictly and output ONLY valid JSON. You are NOT allowed to invent prices/fundamentals/news/earnings. If a field is null/empty, treat it as unknown. Avoid overtrading: if changes are marginal, prefer HOLD. Do not churn.
User prompt
{"task": "stage2_portfolio_management", "region": "US", "strategy": {"key": "meanrev-v1", "name": "Two-Stage LLM Mean-Reversion (Arena v1)", "rules": {"max_positions": 10, "max_buys_per_run": 2, "avoid_overtrading": true, "max_sells_per_run": 2, "max_gross_leverage": 3.0, "fixed_position_size": 3000.0, "universe_symbols_eu": [], "universe_symbols_us": []}}, "portfolio_constraints": {"initial_equity": 10000.0, "max_positions": 10, "fixed_position_size": 3000.0, "max_gross_leverage": 3.0, "overtrading_rules": ["Max 2 SELL actions per run unless risk event forces more", "Max 2 BUY actions per run", "If no clear improvement vs current holdings, output HOLD for everything"]}, "current_portfolio": [{"symbol": "AML_CFD.UK", "qty": 82.14676889375684, "avg_price": 36.52, "last_price": 40.5, "unrealized_pnl": 326.94414019715197, "opened_at": "2026-03-09T10:19:46.508085+00:00"}, {"symbol": "AUTO_CFD.UK", "qty": 6.2137531068765535, "avg_price": 482.8, "last_price": 482.8, "unrealized_pnl": 0.0, "opened_at": "2026-03-19T18:04:14.272849+00:00"}, {"symbol": "BTRW_CFD.UK", "qty": 0.0, "avg_price": 250.8, "last_price": 263.2, "unrealized_pnl": 0.0, "opened_at": "2026-03-23T18:04:09.108429+00:00"}, {"symbol": "BYIT_CFD.UK", "qty": 0.0, "avg_price": 292.6, "last_price": 292.6, "unrealized_pnl": 0.0, "opened_at": "2026-03-01T10:30:13.622938+00:00"}, {"symbol": "CBG_CFD.UK", "qty": 8.748396127376648, "avg_price": 342.92, "last_price": 342.92, "unrealized_pnl": 0.0, "opened_at": "2026-03-18T17:58:33.497657+00:00"}, {"symbol": "CRST_CFD.UK", "qty": 0.0, "avg_price": 118.83, "last_price": 118.83, "unrealized_pnl": 0.0, "opened_at": "2026-03-23T10:03:51.599067+00:00"}, {"symbol": "FUTR_CFD.UK", "qty": 10.55594651653765, "avg_price": 284.2, "last_price": 297.6, "unrealized_pnl": 141.44968332160488, "opened_at": "2026-03-12T10:21:39.078796+00:00"}, {"symbol": "ICG_CFD.UK", "qty": 0.0, "avg_price": 1700.0, "last_price": 1693.0, "unrealized_pnl": 0.0, "opened_at": "2026-02-16T09:30:55.514112+00:00"}, {"symbol": "IWG_CFD.UK", "qty": 0.0, "avg_price": 177.0, "last_price": 172.2, "unrealized_pnl": 0.0, "opened_at": "2026-03-19T18:04:14.272849+00:00"}, {"symbol": "LRE_CFD.UK", "qty": 0.0, "avg_price": 576.0, "last_price": 593.0, "unrealized_pnl": 0.0, "opened_at": "2026-03-20T10:26:40.341409+00:00"}, {"symbol": "LSS_CFD.FR", "qty": 0.0, "avg_price": 17.72, "last_price": 16.0, "unrealized_pnl": -291.19638826185087, "opened_at": "2026-02-16T09:30:55.514112+00:00"}, {"symbol": "MCG_CFD.UK", "qty": 172.51293847038528, "avg_price": 17.39, "last_price": 20.14, "unrealized_pnl": 474.4105807935595, "opened_at": "2026-04-02T10:01:24.938009+00:00"}, {"symbol": "MSLH_CFD.UK", "qty": 21.30681818181818, "avg_price": 140.8, "last_price": 137.2, "unrealized_pnl": -76.70454545454594, "opened_at": "2026-03-26T17:55:26.602359+00:00"}, {"symbol": "OCDO_CFD.UK", "qty": 14.684287812041115, "avg_price": 204.3, "last_price": 186.0, "unrealized_pnl": -268.72246696035256, "opened_at": "2026-03-12T18:01:52.554929+00:00"}, {"symbol": "PAGE_CFD.UK", "qty": 0.0, "avg_price": 132.9, "last_price": 132.9, "unrealized_pnl": 0.0, "opened_at": "2026-02-28T10:51:05.818250+00:00"}, {"symbol": "PSN_CFD.UK", "qty": 2.6455026455026456, "avg_price": 1134.0, "last_price": 1184.5, "unrealized_pnl": 133.5978835978836, "opened_at": "2026-03-12T18:01:52.554929+00:00"}, {"symbol": "SYNT_CFD.UK", "qty": 0.0, "avg_price": 34.9, "last_price": 45.0, "unrealized_pnl": 0.0, "opened_at": "2026-03-23T10:03:51.599067+00:00"}, {"symbol": "TRST_CFD.UK", "qty": 0.0, "avg_price": 151.8, "last_price": 173.4, "unrealized_pnl": 0.0, "opened_at": "2026-03-14T10:03:26.036362+00:00"}, {"symbol": "UTG_CFD.UK", "qty": 0.0, "avg_price": 505.0, "last_price": 461.2, "unrealized_pnl": 0.0, "opened_at": "2026-03-26T17:55:26.602359+00:00"}, {"symbol": "VTY_CFD.UK", "qty": 8.85608856088561, "avg_price": 338.75, "last_price": 330.2, "unrealized_pnl": -75.71955719557207, "opened_at": "2026-03-12T10:21:39.078796+00:00"}, {"symbol": "WIZZ_CFD.UK", "qty": 0.0, "avg_price": 872.0, "last_price": 976.5, "unrealized_pnl": 0.0, "opened_at": "2026-03-09T10:19:46.508085+00:00"}, {"symbol": "WPP_CFD.UK", "qty": 0.0, "avg_price": 253.97436099095557, "last_price": 262.8, "unrealized_pnl": 0.0, "opened_at": "2026-02-28T10:51:05.818250+00:00"}], "candidates": [{"symbol": "VTY_CFD.UK", "mean_reversion_score": 95, "selection_reason": "52% single-day collapse, 44% below MA50, 221% vol - extreme oversold"}, {"symbol": "VIRI_CFD.FR", "mean_reversion_score": 94, "selection_reason": "32% single-day spike, 29% above MA50, 298% vol - extreme overbought"}, {"symbol": "AUTO_CFD.UK", "mean_reversion_score": 92, "selection_reason": "39% single-day crash, 32% below MA50, 130% vol - heavily oversold"}, {"symbol": "IWG_CFD.UK", "mean_reversion_score": 88, "selection_reason": "27% single-day drop, 22% below MA50, 154% vol - strongly oversold"}, {"symbol": "BOY_CFD.UK", "mean_reversion_score": 87, "selection_reason": "24% single-day surge, 19% above MA50, 103% vol - significantly overbought"}], "output_schema": {"actions": {"sell": [{"symbol": "string", "reason": "string"}], "hold": [{"symbol": "string", "reason": "string"}], "buy": [{"symbol": "string", "position_size": "number (currency amount)", "reason": "string"}]}, "portfolio_rationale": "string"}}
Output JSON
{
  "actions": {
    "buy": [
      {
        "reason": "Strong oversold signal (score 88: 27% drop, 22% below MA50, 154% vol). Not in portfolio. Adding 3000 position.",
        "symbol": "IWG_CFD.UK",
        "position_size": 3000
      }
    ],
    "hold": [
      {
        "reason": "Positive momentum (+8.9% PnL). No overbought signal. Hold.",
        "symbol": "AML_CFD.UK"
      },
      {
        "reason": "Oversold candidate (score 92). Hold for mean reversion bounce.",
        "symbol": "AUTO_CFD.UK"
      },
      {
        "reason": "Flat price. No overbought signal. Hold.",
        "symbol": "CBG_CFD.UK"
      },
      {
        "reason": "Positive momentum (+4.7% PnL). No overbought signal. Hold.",
        "symbol": "FUTR_CFD.UK"
      },
      {
        "reason": "Strong positive momentum (+15.8% PnL). No overbought signal. Hold.",
        "symbol": "MCG_CFD.UK"
      },
      {
        "reason": "Small drawdown (-2.6%). No overbought signal. Hold for recovery.",
        "symbol": "MSLH_CFD.UK"
      },
      {
        "reason": "Drawdown (-9%) but no overbought signal. Mean reversion favors hold.",
        "symbol": "OCDO_CFD.UK"
      },
      {
        "reason": "Positive momentum (+4.5% PnL). No overbought signal. Hold.",
        "symbol": "PSN_CFD.UK"
      },
      {
        "reason": "Top oversold candidate (score 95). Hold for mean reversion.",
        "symbol": "VTY_CFD.UK"
      }
    ],
    "sell": []
  },
  "portfolio_rationale": "Portfolio has 9/10 positions. Top oversold candidate IWG not yet held (score 88). Adding 3000 position. All existing positions show no overbought signals; oversold holdings (AUTO score 92, VTY score 95) held for mean reversion bounce. No sells triggered."
}
Selection logs
#1060 • stage1 • 2026-04-08T18:45:13.257893+00:00
{
  "selected_stocks": [
    {
      "symbol": "VTY_CFD.UK",
      "selection_reason": "52% single-day collapse, 44% below MA50, 221% vol - extreme oversold",
      "mean_reversion_score": 95
    },
    {
      "symbol": "VIRI_CFD.FR",
      "selection_reason": "32% single-day spike, 29% above MA50, 298% vol - extreme overbought",
      "mean_reversion_score": 94
    },
    {
      "symbol": "AUTO_CFD.UK",
      "selection_reason": "39% single-day crash, 32% below MA50, 130% vol - heavily oversold",
      "mean_reversion_score": 92
    },
    {
      "symbol": "IWG_CFD.UK",
      "selection_reason": "27% single-day drop, 22% below MA50, 154% vol - strongly oversold",
      "mean_reversion_score": 88
    },
    {
      "symbol": "BOY_CFD.UK",
      "selection_reason": "24% single-day surge, 19% above MA50, 103% vol - significantly overbought",
      "mean_reversion_score": 87
    }
  ],
  "rejected_common_reasons": [
    "Insufficient magnitude of 1-day move (<20%) for high-conviction mean reversion setup",
    "Distance from MA50 too small (<15%) to indicate clear oversold/overbought condition",
    "Volatility too low (<100%) to provide adequate 2-10 day reversion opportunity",
    "Less extreme compared to selected candidates with superior technical setups",
    "Earnings timing unknown - cannot verify 5-day buffer requirement"
  ]
}