Arena run #1128
meanrev-v1 • z-ai • z-ai/glm-4.7 • US • success
Run status
as_of: 2026-04-08T18:35:49.666210+00:00
started_at: 2026-04-08T18:41:57.361915+00:00
finished_at: 2026-04-08T18:43:11.208907+00:00
duration_ms: 73845
Inputs
{
"as_of": "2026-04-08T18:35:49.666210+00:00",
"dry_run": false,
"selected": [],
"simulate_only": false,
"strict_replay": false,
"universe_symbols": [
"GEN_CFD.UK",
"JUP_CFD.UK",
"BOY_CFD.UK",
"THG_CFD.UK",
"CRST_CFD.UK",
"FGP_CFD.UK",
"VCT_CFD.UK",
"DLN_CFD.UK",
"TPK_CFD.UK",
"DOM_CFD.UK",
"BBY_CFD.UK",
"IEP_CFD.BE",
"MAB_CFD.UK",
"WDAY_CFD.US",
"IPO_CFD.UK",
"IWG_CFD.UK",
"VIRI_CFD.FR",
"WKP_CFD.UK",
"DOCS_CFD.UK",
"ATG_CFD.UK",
"TTK_CFD.DE",
"VTY_CFD.UK",
"HMSO_CFD.UK",
"BRNK_CFD.DE",
"MELE_CFD.BE",
"LIO_CFD.UK",
"MDV_CFD.PL",
"AUTO_CFD.UK",
"FRES_CFD.UK",
"TEAM_CFD.US",
"EXPN_CFD.UK",
"III_CFD.UK",
"CO_CFD.FR",
"LTA_CFD.FR",
"CPG_CFD.UK",
"LLOY_CFD.UK",
"BAR_CFD.BE",
"SYNA_CFD.US",
"TUI1_CFD.DE",
"ITRK_CFD.UK",
"IMI_CFD.UK",
"VEEV_CFD.US",
"CRBN_CFD.NL",
"WEW_CFD.DE",
"BYIT_CFD.UK",
"UBI_CFD.FR",
"TMUS_CFD.US",
"LIGHT_CFD.NL",
"WIZZ_CFD.UK",
"LGEN_CFD.UK"
]
}Outputs
{
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"content": "{\n \"actions\": {\n \"sell\": [],\n \"hold\": [\n {\n \"symbol\": \"AUTO_CFD.UK\",\n \"reason\": \"No clear sell signal. Price is at entry.\"\n },\n {\n \"symbol\": \"CBG_CFD.UK\",\n \"reason\": \"No clear sell signal. Price is at entry.\"\n },\n {\n \"symbol\": \"FUTR_CFD.UK\",\n \"reason\": \"Marginal gain (~4.7%). Avoiding overtrading.\"\n },\n {\n \"symbol\": \"HIK_CFD.UK\",\n \"reason\": \"Marginal gain (~3.9%). Avoiding overtrading.\"\n },\n {\n \"symbol\": \"IWG_CFD.UK\",\n \"reason\": \"No clear sell signal. Price is at entry.\"\n },\n {\n \"symbol\": \"KGF_CFD.UK\",\n \"reason\": \"Marginal gain (~5.2%). Avoiding overtrading.\"\n },\n {\n \"symbol\": \"PAGE_CFD.UK\",\n \"reason\": \"No clear sell signal. Price is at",
"refusal": null,
"reasoning": "1. **Analyze the Request:**\n * **Role:** Arena portfolio manager.\n * **Task:** Stage 2 portfolio management.\n * **Strategy:** Two-Stage LLM Mean-Reversion (Arena v1).\n * **Rules:**\n * Max positions: 10.\n * Max buys per run: 2.\n * Max sells per run: 2.\n * Avoid overtrading (prefer HOLD if marginal).\n * Max gross leverage: 3.0.\n * Fixed position size: $3000.0.\n * Universe: US and EU symbols provided in the strategy (though the input lists specific symbols in `current_portfolio` and `candidates` is empty). Wait, the strategy says `universe_symbols_eu` and `universe_symbols_us` are empty lists `[]`. This is a bit contradictory if I'm supposed to trade, but I must stick to the provided data. The `current_portfolio` has many symbols.\n * **Current Portfolio State:**\n * Total positions listed: 23.\n * Active positions (qty > 0): AUTO, CBG, FUTR, HIK, IWG, KGF, PAGE, RMV, TRST. (9 positions).\n * Closed positions (qty = 0): ADBE, BIG, BTRW, BYIT, CCL, CRWD, ERA, FICO, OCDO, THG, TUI1, VTY, XRX, ZS.\n * **Constraints:**\n * Max positions is 10. I currently have 9 active positions.\n * Max sells: 2.\n * Max buys: 2.\n * Fixed position size: $3000.\n * **Strategy Logic (Mean-Reversion):**\n * Generally, buy low (oversold) and sell high (overbought) relative to some mean, or close positions that have reverted.\n * Since I don't have historical data or indicators (RSI, Bollinger Bands, Moving Averages) provided in the prompt, I have to infer \"mean reversion\" signals from the *current* state provided: `last_price` vs `avg_price` and `unrealized_pnl`.\n * *However*, the prompt explicitly says: \"You are NOT allowed to invent prices/fundamentals/news/earnings.\"\n * This makes it very hard to apply a standard mean-reversion strategy which relies on historical context. I must rely on the provided `current_portfolio` data.\n * Let's look at the active positions:\n * AUTO: PnL 0. Price = Avg.\n * CBG: PnL 0. Price = Avg.\n * FUTR: PnL +141.45. Price (297.6) > Avg (284.2). Up ~4.7%.\n * HIK: PnL +117.65. Price (1325) > Avg (1275). Up ~3.9%.\n * IWG: PnL 0. Price = Avg.\n * KGF: PnL +155.76. Price (303.9) > Avg (288.9). Up ~5.2%.\n * PAGE: PnL 0. Price = Avg.\n * RMV: PnL 0. Price = Avg.\n * TRST: PnL 0. Price = Avg.\n * Let's look at the closed positions (qty 0) to see if there are \"buy\" opportunities (assuming they dropped or are available). The `candidates` list is empty. Usually, in these tasks, if `candidates` is empty, I shouldn't initiate new buys on random symbols unless they were recently closed and look attractive, or I just manage the existing portfolio.\n * *Crucial Observation:* The prompt says `candidates` is `[]`. This implies I have no new buy signals generated by Stage 1. Therefore, I should likely focus on managing existing positions (Selling winners that have \"reverted\" or hit targets, or holding).\n * *Wait*, if the strategy is Mean Reversion, and I have winners (FUTR, HIK, KGF), these might be candidates to SELL to lock in profits (reversion completed). The flat positions (AUTO, CBG, IWG, PAGE, RMV, TRST) are just sitting there.\n * Without specific \"Buy\" candidates provided in the `candidates` field, I cannot execute a BUY action because I don't know *what* to buy. I cannot invent a symbol. I can only buy symbols that are in the universe or candidates. Since `candidates` is empty, I will assume no BUYs are possible or recommended by the upstream signal generator.\n * Therefore, the decision space is limited to SELL or HOLD existing positions.\n\n2. **Evaluate Active Positions for SELL (Mean Reversion - Taking Profits):**\n * **FUTR:** +4.7% gain. Is this a \"reversion\"? It's a modest gain. Without a defined target, it's hard to say. But given \"Avoid overtrading\", selling a 4.7% gainer might be premature unless the strategy is very short-term.\n * **HIK:** +3.9% gain. Similar to FUTR.\n * **KGF:** +5.2% gain. Similar to FUTR.\n * **Others:** Flat (0 PnL). No reason to sell unless to free up capital for a better trade, but I have no better trades (candidates empty).\n\n * *Alternative Interpretation:* Maybe the \"Mean Reversion\" implies buying the losers?\n * Let's check the closed positions (qty 0) with negative PnL or lower current price than avg price.\n * ADBE: Last 236.65, Avg 249.47. Down ~5.1%. (Qty 0).\n * BIG: Last 0.3, Avg 0.453. Down ~33%. (Qty 0).\n * BTRW: Last 255.0, Avg 259.8. Down ~1.8%. (Qty 0).\n * CCL: Last 1988.5, Avg 1946. Up. (Qty 0).\n * CRWD: Last 374.67, Avg 349.425. Up. (Qty 0).\n * ERA: Last 52.1, Avg 47.4. Up. (Qty 0).\n * FICO: Last 1160.8, Avg 1127.4. Up. (Qty 0).\n * OCDO: Last 204.3, Avg 217.0. Down ~5.8%. (Qty 0).\n * TUI1: Last 6.723, Avg 7.398. Down ~9.1%. (Qty 0).\n * VTY: Last 330.2, Avg 338.75. Down ~2.5%. (Qty 0).\n * ZS: Last 133.07, Avg 141.32. Down ~5.8%. (Qty 0).\n * XRX: Last 1.83, Avg 1.73. Up. (Qty 0).\n\n * *Dilemma:* I have 9 positions. Max is 10. I have room for 1 more. I have 2 buy slots. I have 2 sell slots.\n * If I buy a \"loser\" (Mean Reversion strategy: buy low), which one?\n * ADBE (-5%), OCDO (-5.8%), TUI1 (-9%), ZS (-5.8%).\n * However, the `candidates` list is empty. In the Arena workflow, Stage 1 usually populates `candidates`. If it's empty, it usually means \"No new trade signals\". I should probably respect that and not initiate new trades on closed positions unless explicitly told to look there. The prompt says \"candidates\": [].\n * If I strictly follow \"You are NOT allowed to invent...\", and the list of candidates is empty, I have no valid targets for BUY.\n * Therefore, I should focus on SELLING the winners (reversion) or HOLDING.\n\n * *Re-evaluating SELLs:*\n * FUTR, HIK, KGF are showing profits.\n * Is 4-5% enough for a mean reversion trade? It's a reasonable short-term swing.\n * However, the rule \"Avoid overtrading: if changes are marginal, prefer HOLD\" applies.\n * Is 5% marginal? It's not huge, but it's positive.\n * Let's look at the \"flat\" positions. AUTO, CBG, IWG, PAGE, RMV, TRST. These are doing nothing.\n * If I sell the winners, I go to cash or wait.\n * If I hold, I keep exposure.\n * Without a strong signal to sell (e.g., \"Overbought\" indicator), and given the \"Avoid overtrading\" rule, selling a 4% gain might be considered churning if the trend continues.\n * Conversely, Mean Reversion implies selling when price deviates *above* the mean. Since I don't have the mean, I use the entry price as a proxy. The price is above entry.\n * Let's look at the losers in the closed list again. If I can't buy them because `candidates` is empty, I can't buy them.\n * So, the only logical action is HOLD everything, or SELL the top performers if we assume the reversion is done.\n * Given the strict instruction \"If no clear improvement vs current holdings, output HOLD for everything\", and the fact that I have no candidates to buy into, selling winners just to sit in cash is not necessarily an \"improvement\".\n * However, if I look at the positions, many are flat. The portfolio is stagnant.\n * Let's check if any of the flat positions should be cut? No, they are at break-even.\n * Let's check if any of the winners are \"hot\". KGF (+5%), FUTR (+4.7%), HIK (+3.9%).\n * If I sell KGF and FUTR, I realize ~$300 profit.\n * If I hold, I risk it dropping back.\n * Given the strategy is \"Mean Reversion\", the expectation is that prices return to the mean. If they are above the entry (mean proxy), they should revert down. So selling is theoretically correct.\n * But \"Avoid overtrading\" is a strong constraint. 4-5% is a tight range for transaction costs/slippage to eat into, though CFDs usually have tight spreads.\n * Let's look at the `candidates` field again. It is explicitly `[]`. This is the strongest signal. The system did not find any new setups. It did not flag any existing positions for immediate exit.\n * Therefore, the safest and most compliant action is to HOLD all existing positions.\n\n * *Wait, let's double check the `current_portfolio` logic.*\n * Some positions have `qty: 0.0`. These are effectively closed.\n * I should only output actions for `qty > 0` (Active) or `buy` actions.\n * Since `candidates` is empty, no `buy` actions.\n * For `sell` actions: I need a reason.\n * Reason for selling FUTR: \"Price reverted above mean, taking profit.\"\n * Reason for selling KGF: \"Price reverted above mean, taking profit.\"\n * Is 5% a \"reversion\"? It's a start.\n * However, looking at the \"Avoid overtrading\" rule again: \"If no clear improvement vs current holdings, output HOLD for everything\".\n * Selling FUTR and KGF to hold cash is not an improvement over holding FUTR and KGF if they might go higher or stay flat.\n * Also, I have 9 positions. Max is 10. I have room.\n * I will stick to HOLD for all active positions. The lack of candidates suggests the market isn't offering clear mean-reversion setups elsewhere, and the current winners aren't extreme enough to force a sell given the \"avoid overtrading\" rule.\n\n * *Refining the decision:*\n * Active: AUTO, CBG, FUTR, HIK, IWG, KGF, PAGE, RMV, TRST.\n * All are held.\n * No buys (candidates empty).\n * No sells (marginal gains, avoid overtrading).\n\n * *Wait, is there a risk event?* No news provided.\n * *Are any positions hitting a stop loss?* No data on stops.\n * *Are any positions hitting a take profit?* No data on targets.\n\n * *Conclusion:* Do nothing. Output HOLD for all active symbols.\n\n * *Structure of Output:*\n * `actions`:\n * `sell`: []\n * `hold`: [List of active symbols]\n * `buy`: []\n * `portfolio_rationale`: Explanation.\n\n * *Active Symbols List:*\n * AUTO_CFD.UK\n * CBG_CFD.UK\n * FUTR_CFD.UK\n * HIK_CFD.UK\n * IWG_CFD.UK\n * KGF_CFD.UK\n * PAGE_CFD.UK\n * RMV_CFD.UK\n * TRST_CFD.UK\n\n * *Rationale Draft:* The candidates list is empty, indicating no new mean-reversion entry signals. Existing positions show marginal performance (FUTR, HIK, KGF slightly up; others flat). Per the \"avoid overtrading\" rule and the instruction to prefer HOLD when changes are marginal, no trades are executed. The portfolio remains fully invested within the 10-position limit.\n\n * *Check constraints:*\n * Max positions: 10 (Current: 9). OK.\n * Max buys: 2 (Current: 0). OK.\n * Max sells: 2 (Current: 0). OK.\n * Leverage: Fixed size 3000. 9 * 3000 = 27000 exposure. Equity 10000. Leverage 2.7. Max 3.0. OK.\n\n * *Final check:* Did I miss anything?\n * \"You are NOT allowed to invent prices/fundamentals/news/earnings.\" -> I didn't.\n * \"If unsure, please default to using {\"answer\":\"$your_answer\"}.\" -> I am using the specified schema.\n * \"Ensure to always use '```'End the code block to indicate the end of the JSON object.\" -> Will do.\n\n * *Wait, what about the symbols with qty 0?*\n * The prompt lists them in `current_portfolio`. Usually, these are historical records. I should not include them in the `hold` list if they are closed, or I should just ignore them. The `hold` action usually applies to active positions. I will list the active ones.\n\n * *One edge case:* What if the \"Mean Reversion\" strategy implies I *must* sell the winners because they are no longer \"mean\"?\n * Without a specific \"Sell Signal\" or \"Overbought\" flag in the input data, I am guessing the threshold. 4-5% is low.\n * The prompt says \"If no clear improvement vs current holdings, output HOLD for everything\".\n * Selling winners to hold cash is rarely an \"improvement\" in a vacuum unless the cash is needed for a better trade. Since no better trades exist (candidates empty), HOLD is the correct path.\n\n * *Constructing JSON:*\n * `sell`: []\n * `hold`: AUTO_CFD.UK, CBG_CFD.UK, FUTR_CFD.UK, HIK_CFD.UK, IWG_CFD.UK, KGF_CFD.UK, PAGE_CFD.UK, RMV_CFD.UK, TRST_CFD.UK\n * `buy`: []\n * `portfolio_rationale`: \"No new candidates provided. Existing positions show marginal performance (FUTR, HIK, KGF slightly positive; others flat). Adhering to overtrading rules, holding all positions to avoid churning on small moves.\"\n\n * Let's verify the symbol strings.\n * AUTO_CFD.UK\n * CBG_CFD.UK\n * FUTR_CFD.UK\n * HIK_CFD.UK\n * IWG_CFD.UK\n * KGF_CFD.UK\n * PAGE_CFD.UK\n * RMV_CFD.UK\n * TRST_CFD.UK\n\n * Looks correct.",
"reasoning_details": [
{
"text": "1. **Analyze the Request:**\n * **Role:** Arena portfolio manager.\n * **Task:** Stage 2 portfolio management.\n * **Strategy:** Two-Stage LLM Mean-Reversion (Arena v1).\n * **Rules:**\n * Max positions: 10.\n * Max buys per run: 2.\n * Max sells per run: 2.\n * Avoid overtrading (prefer HOLD if marginal).\n * Max gross leverage: 3.0.\n * Fixed position size: $3000.0.\n * Universe: US and EU symbols provided in the strategy (though the input lists specific symbols in `current_portfolio` and `candidates` is empty). Wait, the strategy says `universe_symbols_eu` and `universe_symbols_us` are empty lists `[]`. This is a bit contradictory if I'm supposed to trade, but I must stick to the provided data. The `current_portfolio` has many symbols.\n * **Current Portfolio State:**\n * Total positions listed: 23.\n * Active positions (qty > 0): AUTO, CBG, FUTR, HIK, IWG, KGF, PAGE, RMV, TRST. (9 positions).\n * Closed positions (qty = 0): ADBE, BIG, BTRW, BYIT, CCL, CRWD, ERA, FICO, OCDO, THG, TUI1, VTY, XRX, ZS.\n * **Constraints:**\n * Max positions is 10. I currently have 9 active positions.\n * Max sells: 2.\n * Max buys: 2.\n * Fixed position size: $3000.\n * **Strategy Logic (Mean-Reversion):**\n * Generally, buy low (oversold) and sell high (overbought) relative to some mean, or close positions that have reverted.\n * Since I don't have historical data or indicators (RSI, Bollinger Bands, Moving Averages) provided in the prompt, I have to infer \"mean reversion\" signals from the *current* state provided: `last_price` vs `avg_price` and `unrealized_pnl`.\n * *However*, the prompt explicitly says: \"You are NOT allowed to invent prices/fundamentals/news/earnings.\"\n * This makes it very hard to apply a standard mean-reversion strategy which relies on historical context. I must rely on the provided `current_portfolio` data.\n * Let's look at the active positions:\n * AUTO: PnL 0. Price = Avg.\n * CBG: PnL 0. Price = Avg.\n * FUTR: PnL +141.45. Price (297.6) > Avg (284.2). Up ~4.7%.\n * HIK: PnL +117.65. Price (1325) > Avg (1275). Up ~3.9%.\n * IWG: PnL 0. Price = Avg.\n * KGF: PnL +155.76. Price (303.9) > Avg (288.9). Up ~5.2%.\n * PAGE: PnL 0. Price = Avg.\n * RMV: PnL 0. Price = Avg.\n * TRST: PnL 0. Price = Avg.\n * Let's look at the closed positions (qty 0) to see if there are \"buy\" opportunities (assuming they dropped or are available). The `candidates` list is empty. Usually, in these tasks, if `candidates` is empty, I shouldn't initiate new buys on random symbols unless they were recently closed and look attractive, or I just manage the existing portfolio.\n * *Crucial Observation:* The prompt says `candidates` is `[]`. This implies I have no new buy signals generated by Stage 1. Therefore, I should likely focus on managing existing positions (Selling winners that have \"reverted\" or hit targets, or holding).\n * *Wait*, if the strategy is Mean Reversion, and I have winners (FUTR, HIK, KGF), these might be candidates to SELL to lock in profits (reversion completed). The flat positions (AUTO, CBG, IWG, PAGE, RMV, TRST) are just sitting there.\n * Without specific \"Buy\" candidates provided in the `candidates` field, I cannot execute a BUY action because I don't know *what* to buy. I cannot invent a symbol. I can only buy symbols that are in the universe or candidates. Since `candidates` is empty, I will assume no BUYs are possible or recommended by the upstream signal generator.\n * Therefore, the decision space is limited to SELL or HOLD existing positions.\n\n2. **Evaluate Active Positions for SELL (Mean Reversion - Taking Profits):**\n * **FUTR:** +4.7% gain. Is this a \"reversion\"? It's a modest gain. Without a defined target, it's hard to say. But given \"Avoid overtrading\", selling a 4.7% gainer might be premature unless the strategy is very short-term.\n * **HIK:** +3.9% gain. Similar to FUTR.\n * **KGF:** +5.2% gain. Similar to FUTR.\n * **Others:** Flat (0 PnL). No reason to sell unless to free up capital for a better trade, but I have no better trades (candidates empty).\n\n * *Alternative Interpretation:* Maybe the \"Mean Reversion\" implies buying the losers?\n * Let's check the closed positions (qty 0) with negative PnL or lower current price than avg price.\n * ADBE: Last 236.65, Avg 249.47. Down ~5.1%. (Qty 0).\n * BIG: Last 0.3, Avg 0.453. Down ~33%. (Qty 0).\n * BTRW: Last 255.0, Avg 259.8. Down ~1.8%. (Qty 0).\n * CCL: Last 1988.5, Avg 1946. Up. (Qty 0).\n * CRWD: Last 374.67, Avg 349.425. Up. (Qty 0).\n * ERA: Last 52.1, Avg 47.4. Up. (Qty 0).\n * FICO: Last 1160.8, Avg 1127.4. Up. (Qty 0).\n * OCDO: Last 204.3, Avg 217.0. Down ~5.8%. (Qty 0).\n * TUI1: Last 6.723, Avg 7.398. Down ~9.1%. (Qty 0).\n * VTY: Last 330.2, Avg 338.75. Down ~2.5%. (Qty 0).\n * ZS: Last 133.07, Avg 141.32. Down ~5.8%. (Qty 0).\n * XRX: Last 1.83, Avg 1.73. Up. (Qty 0).\n\n * *Dilemma:* I have 9 positions. Max is 10. I have room for 1 more. I have 2 buy slots. I have 2 sell slots.\n * If I buy a \"loser\" (Mean Reversion strategy: buy low), which one?\n * ADBE (-5%), OCDO (-5.8%), TUI1 (-9%), ZS (-5.8%).\n * However, the `candidates` list is empty. In the Arena workflow, Stage 1 usually populates `candidates`. If it's empty, it usually means \"No new trade signals\". I should probably respect that and not initiate new trades on closed positions unless explicitly told to look there. The prompt says \"candidates\": [].\n * If I strictly follow \"You are NOT allowed to invent...\", and the list of candidates is empty, I have no valid targets for BUY.\n * Therefore, I should focus on SELLING the winners (reversion) or HOLDING.\n\n * *Re-evaluating SELLs:*\n * FUTR, HIK, KGF are showing profits.\n * Is 4-5% enough for a mean reversion trade? It's a reasonable short-term swing.\n * However, the rule \"Avoid overtrading: if changes are marginal, prefer HOLD\" applies.\n * Is 5% marginal? It's not huge, but it's positive.\n * Let's look at the \"flat\" positions. AUTO, CBG, IWG, PAGE, RMV, TRST. These are doing nothing.\n * If I sell the winners, I go to cash or wait.\n * If I hold, I keep exposure.\n * Without a strong signal to sell (e.g., \"Overbought\" indicator), and given the \"Avoid overtrading\" rule, selling a 4% gain might be considered churning if the trend continues.\n * Conversely, Mean Reversion implies selling when price deviates *above* the mean. Since I don't have the mean, I use the entry price as a proxy. The price is above entry.\n * Let's look at the losers in the closed list again. If I can't buy them because `candidates` is empty, I can't buy them.\n * So, the only logical action is HOLD everything, or SELL the top performers if we assume the reversion is done.\n * Given the strict instruction \"If no clear improvement vs current holdings, output HOLD for everything\", and the fact that I have no candidates to buy into, selling winners just to sit in cash is not necessarily an \"improvement\".\n * However, if I look at the positions, many are flat. The portfolio is stagnant.\n * Let's check if any of the flat positions should be cut? No, they are at break-even.\n * Let's check if any of the winners are \"hot\". KGF (+5%), FUTR (+4.7%), HIK (+3.9%).\n * If I sell KGF and FUTR, I realize ~$300 profit.\n * If I hold, I risk it dropping back.\n * Given the strategy is \"Mean Reversion\", the expectation is that prices return to the mean. If they are above the entry (mean proxy), they should revert down. So selling is theoretically correct.\n * But \"Avoid overtrading\" is a strong constraint. 4-5% is a tight range for transaction costs/slippage to eat into, though CFDs usually have tight spreads.\n * Let's look at the `candidates` field again. It is explicitly `[]`. This is the strongest signal. The system did not find any new setups. It did not flag any existing positions for immediate exit.\n * Therefore, the safest and most compliant action is to HOLD all existing positions.\n\n * *Wait, let's double check the `current_portfolio` logic.*\n * Some positions have `qty: 0.0`. These are effectively closed.\n * I should only output actions for `qty > 0` (Active) or `buy` actions.\n * Since `candidates` is empty, no `buy` actions.\n * For `sell` actions: I need a reason.\n * Reason for selling FUTR: \"Price reverted above mean, taking profit.\"\n * Reason for selling KGF: \"Price reverted above mean, taking profit.\"\n * Is 5% a \"reversion\"? It's a start.\n * However, looking at the \"Avoid overtrading\" rule again: \"If no clear improvement vs current holdings, output HOLD for everything\".\n * Selling FUTR and KGF to hold cash is not an improvement over holding FUTR and KGF if they might go higher or stay flat.\n * Also, I have 9 positions. Max is 10. I have room.\n * I will stick to HOLD for all active positions. The lack of candidates suggests the market isn't offering clear mean-reversion setups elsewhere, and the current winners aren't extreme enough to force a sell given the \"avoid overtrading\" rule.\n\n * *Refining the decision:*\n * Active: AUTO, CBG, FUTR, HIK, IWG, KGF, PAGE, RMV, TRST.\n * All are held.\n * No buys (candidates empty).\n * No sells (marginal gains, avoid overtrading).\n\n * *Wait, is there a risk event?* No news provided.\n * *Are any positions hitting a stop loss?* No data on stops.\n * *Are any positions hitting a take profit?* No data on targets.\n\n * *Conclusion:* Do nothing. Output HOLD for all active symbols.\n\n * *Structure of Output:*\n * `actions`:\n * `sell`: []\n * `hold`: [List of active symbols]\n * `buy`: []\n * `portfolio_rationale`: Explanation.\n\n * *Active Symbols List:*\n * AUTO_CFD.UK\n * CBG_CFD.UK\n * FUTR_CFD.UK\n * HIK_CFD.UK\n * IWG_CFD.UK\n * KGF_CFD.UK\n * PAGE_CFD.UK\n * RMV_CFD.UK\n * TRST_CFD.UK\n\n * *Rationale Draft:* The candidates list is empty, indicating no new mean-reversion entry signals. Existing positions show marginal performance (FUTR, HIK, KGF slightly up; others flat). Per the \"avoid overtrading\" rule and the instruction to prefer HOLD when changes are marginal, no trades are executed. The portfolio remains fully invested within the 10-position limit.\n\n * *Check constraints:*\n * Max positions: 10 (Current: 9). OK.\n * Max buys: 2 (Current: 0). OK.\n * Max sells: 2 (Current: 0). OK.\n * Leverage: Fixed size 3000. 9 * 3000 = 27000 exposure. Equity 10000. Leverage 2.7. Max 3.0. OK.\n\n * *Final check:* Did I miss anything?\n * \"You are NOT allowed to invent prices/fundamentals/news/earnings.\" -> I didn't.\n * \"If unsure, please default to using {\"answer\":\"$your_answer\"}.\" -> I am using the specified schema.\n * \"Ensure to always use '```'End the code block to indicate the end of the JSON object.\" -> Will do.\n\n * *Wait, what about the symbols with qty 0?*\n * The prompt lists them in `current_portfolio`. Usually, these are historical records. I should not include them in the `hold` list if they are closed, or I should just ignore them. The `hold` action usually applies to active positions. I will list the active ones.\n\n * *One edge case:* What if the \"Mean Reversion\" strategy implies I *must* sell the winners because they are no longer \"mean\"?\n * Without a specific \"Sell Signal\" or \"Overbought\" flag in the input data, I am guessing the threshold. 4-5% is low.\n * The prompt says \"If no clear improvement vs current holdings, output HOLD for everything\".\n * Selling winners to hold cash is rarely an \"improvement\" in a vacuum unless the cash is needed for a better trade. Since no better trades exist (candidates empty), HOLD is the correct path.\n\n * *Constructing JSON:*\n * `sell`: []\n * `hold`: AUTO_CFD.UK, CBG_CFD.UK, FUTR_CFD.UK, HIK_CFD.UK, IWG_CFD.UK, KGF_CFD.UK, PAGE_CFD.UK, RMV_CFD.UK, TRST_CFD.UK\n * `buy`: []\n * `portfolio_rationale`: \"No new candidates provided. Existing positions show marginal performance (FUTR, HIK, KGF slightly positive; others flat). Adhering to overtrading rules, holding all positions to avoid churning on small moves.\"\n\n * Let's verify the symbol strings.\n * AUTO_CFD.UK\n * CBG_CFD.UK\n * FUTR_CFD.UK\n * HIK_CFD.UK\n * IWG_CFD.UK\n * KGF_CFD.UK\n * PAGE_CFD.UK\n * RMV_CFD.UK\n * TRST_CFD.UK\n\n * Looks correct.",
"type": "reasoning.text",
"index": 0,
"format": "unknown"
}
]
},
"logprobs": null,
"finish_reason": "length",
"native_finish_reason": "length"
}
],
"created": 1775673745,
"provider": "Z.AI",
"system_fingerprint": null
}
}Prompts & responses
#2181 • openrouter • z-ai/glm-4.7 • 2026-04-08T18:41:57.404429+00:00
System prompt
You are an Arena strategy executor. You must follow the strategy rules strictly and output ONLY valid JSON. You are NOT allowed to invent prices, fundamentals, earnings dates, or sentiment. If a field is null/empty, treat it as unknown. You are a constrained selector (no narrative).
User prompt
{"task": "stage1_universe_scan", "region": "US", "strategy": {"key": "meanrev-v1", "name": "Two-Stage LLM Mean-Reversion (Arena v1)", "rules": {"max_positions": 10, "max_buys_per_run": 2, "avoid_overtrading": true, "max_sells_per_run": 2, "max_gross_leverage": 3.0, "fixed_position_size": 3000.0, "universe_symbols_eu": [], "universe_symbols_us": []}}, "selection_rules": {"horizon": "2-10 trading days", "target": "short-term mean reversion in liquid equities", "constraints": ["Select exactly 5 candidates", "Avoid earnings within 5 trading days (if known)", "Avoid highly binary/event-driven moves (if known)", "Avoid sector concentration: max 1 per sector unless clearly justified (sector may be unknown)"]}, "universe": [{"symbol": "GEN_CFD.UK", "name": "GENUIT GROUP PLC", "sector": "", "last_price": 370.0, "change_1d_pct": 13.671274961597547, "distance_from_ma200_pct": 1.1384913963945476, "distance_from_ma50_pct": 7.521632190000593, "volatility_20d_pct": 112.82453945409682, "market_cap_usd": null, "avg_daily_volume_usd": null, "days_to_next_earnings": null, "earnings_confirmed": null, "news_sentiment_score": null, "news_headlines_last_3": [], "data_quality_note": "snapshot_ok_prices_technicals_only"}, {"symbol": "JUP_CFD.UK", "name": "JUPITER FUND MANAGEMENT", "sector": "", "last_price": 193.6, "change_1d_pct": 22.06809583858764, "distance_from_ma200_pct": 57.65825374753912, "distance_from_ma50_pct": 19.274691586205538, "volatility_20d_pct": 96.15961444303547, "market_cap_usd": null, "avg_daily_volume_usd": null, "days_to_next_earnings": null, "earnings_confirmed": null, "news_sentiment_score": null, "news_headlines_last_3": [], "data_quality_note": "snapshot_ok_prices_technicals_only"}, {"symbol": "BOY_CFD.UK", "name": "BODYCOTE PLC", "sector": "", "last_price": 775.4, "change_1d_pct": 24.163330664531625, "distance_from_ma200_pct": 28.652243313347768, "distance_from_ma50_pct": 18.63612217470385, "volatility_20d_pct": 103.46484337510964, "market_cap_usd": null, "avg_daily_volume_usd": null, "days_to_next_earnings": null, "earnings_confirmed": null, "news_sentiment_score": null, "news_headlines_last_3": [], "data_quality_note": "snapshot_ok_prices_technicals_only"}, {"symbol": "THG_CFD.UK", "name": "THG PLC", "sector": "", "last_price": 34.98, "change_1d_pct": -21.463852716659193, "distance_from_ma200_pct": 2.6990050116409536, "distance_from_ma50_pct": -18.650784422253118, "volatility_20d_pct": 150.5308117928466, "market_cap_usd": null, "avg_daily_volume_usd": null, "days_to_next_earnings": null, "earnings_confirmed": null, "news_sentiment_score": null, "news_headlines_last_3": [], "data_quality_note": "snapshot_ok_prices_technicals_only"}, {"symbol": "CRST_CFD.UK", "name": "CREST NICHOLSON HOLDINGS", "sector": "", "last_price": 118.83, "change_1d_pct": -12.817314746881891, "distance_from_ma200_pct": -28.150055914529826, "distance_from_ma50_pct": -15.848139991077058, "volatility_20d_pct": 236.5351415372937, "market_cap_usd": null, "avg_daily_volume_usd": null, "days_to_next_earnings": null, "earnings_confirmed": null, "news_sentiment_score": null, "news_headlines_last_3": [], "data_quality_note": "snapshot_ok_prices_technicals_only"}, {"symbol": "FGP_CFD.UK", "name": "FIRSTGROUP PLC", "sector": "", "last_price": 193.2, "change_1d_pct": 1.3109596224436304, "distance_from_ma200_pct": -4.044842646206826, "distance_from_ma50_pct": 1.7250076083144883, "volatility_20d_pct": 88.3516119820011, "market_cap_usd": null, "avg_daily_volume_usd": null, "days_to_next_earnings": null, "earnings_confirmed": null, "news_sentiment_score": null, "news_headlines_last_3": [], "data_quality_note": "snapshot_ok_prices_technicals_only"}, {"symbol": "VCT_CFD.UK", "name": "VICTREX PLC", "sector": "", "last_price": 635.0, "change_1d_pct": -9.285714285714286, "distance_from_ma200_pct": -11.261564295119154, "distance_from_ma50_pct": -2.9181133396627645, "volatility_20d_pct": 130.4010909373053, "market_cap_usd": null, "avg_daily_volume_usd": null, "days_to_next_earnings": null, "earnings_confirmed": null, "news_sentiment_score": null, "news_headlines_last_3": [], "data_quality_note": "snapshot_ok_prices_technicals_only"}, {"symbol": "DLN_CFD.UK", "name": "DERWENT LONDON PLC", "sector": "", "last_price": 1953.0, "change_1d_pct": 10.401356698699837, "distance_from_ma200_pct": 5.069478604951705, "distance_from_ma50_pct": 12.150447212111025, "volatility_20d_pct": 115.39088732649292, "market_cap_usd": null, "avg_daily_volume_usd": null, "days_to_next_earnings": null, "earnings_confirmed": null, "news_sentiment_score": null, "news_headlines_last_3": [], "data_quality_note": "snapshot_ok_prices_technicals_only"}, {"symbol": "TPK_CFD.UK", "name": "TRAVIS PERKINS PLC", "sector": "", "last_price": 601.57, "change_1d_pct": -1.21029986533977, "distance_from_ma200_pct": 0.5267641208837714, "distance_from_ma50_pct": -4.983077425595306, "volatility_20d_pct": 108.19399806448348, "market_cap_usd": null, "avg_daily_volume_usd": null, "days_to_next_earnings": null, "earnings_confirmed": null, "news_sentiment_score": null, "news_headlines_last_3": [], "data_quality_note": "snapshot_ok_prices_technicals_only"}, {"symbol": "DOM_CFD.UK", "name": "DOMINO'S PIZZA GROUP PLC", "sector": "", "last_price": 183.13, "change_1d_pct": -0.3102885138813294, "distance_from_ma200_pct": -15.070952368916624, "distance_from_ma50_pct": 1.0777282376278619, "volatility_20d_pct": 87.92203351330001, "market_cap_usd": null, "avg_daily_volume_usd": null, "days_to_next_earnings": null, "earnings_confirmed": null, "news_sentiment_score": null, "news_headlines_last_3": [], "data_quality_note": "snapshot_ok_prices_technicals_only"}, {"symbol": "BBY_CFD.UK", "name": "BALFOUR BEATTY PLC", "sector": "", "last_price": 759.18, "change_1d_pct": 5.222453222453205, "distance_from_ma200_pct": 33.313724414201815, "distance_from_ma50_pct": 8.832962232591, "volatility_20d_pct": 54.25956465831767, "market_cap_usd": null, "avg_daily_volume_usd": null, "days_to_next_earnings": null, "earnings_confirmed": null, "news_sentiment_score": null, "news_headlines_last_3": [], "data_quality_note": "snapshot_ok_prices_technicals_only"}, {"symbol": "IEP_CFD.BE", "name": "IEP Invest NV", "sector": "", "last_price": 5.4, "change_1d_pct": 0.0, "distance_from_ma200_pct": 0.9951765451794659, "distance_from_ma50_pct": 0.5657756042326989, "volatility_20d_pct": 138.39532879660115, "market_cap_usd": null, "avg_daily_volume_usd": null, "days_to_next_earnings": null, "earnings_confirmed": null, "news_sentiment_score": null, "news_headlines_last_3": [], "data_quality_note": "snapshot_ok_prices_technicals_only"}, {"symbol": "MAB_CFD.UK", "name": "MITCHELLS & BUTLERS PLC", "sector": "", "last_price": 292.81, "change_1d_pct": 14.37890625, "distance_from_ma200_pct": 11.595067041457764, "distance_from_ma50_pct": 10.935906392690597, "volatility_20d_pct": 118.87119977937589, "market_cap_usd": null, "avg_daily_volume_usd": null, "days_to_next_earnings": null, "earnings_confirmed": null, "news_sentiment_score": null, "news_headlines_last_3": [], "data_quality_note": "snapshot_ok_prices_technicals_only"}, {"symbol": "WDAY_CFD.US", "name": "", "sector": "", "last_price": 122.27, "change_1d_pct": -6.664122137404583, "distance_from_ma200_pct": -40.48215925099131, "distance_from_ma50_pct": -14.528062365783834, "volatility_20d_pct": 85.73404610436025, "market_cap_usd": null, "avg_daily_volume_usd": null, "days_to_next_earnings": null, "earnings_confirmed": null, "news_sentiment_score": null, "news_headlines_last_3": [], "data_quality_note": "snapshot_ok_prices_technicals_only"}, {"symbol": "IPO_CFD.UK", "name": "IP GROUP PLC", "sector": "", "last_price": 57.6, "change_1d_pct": -1.873935264054516, "distance_from_ma200_pct": 10.233643652522883, "distance_from_ma50_pct": -2.027486732888828, "volatility_20d_pct": 89.82123635439407, "market_cap_usd": null, "avg_daily_volume_usd": null, "days_to_next_earnings": null, "earnings_confirmed": null, "news_sentiment_score": null, "news_headlines_last_3": [], "data_quality_note": "snapshot_ok_prices_technicals_only"}, {"symbol": "IWG_CFD.UK", "name": "IWG PLC", "sector": "", "last_price": 177.0, "change_1d_pct": -26.786896095301127, "distance_from_ma200_pct": -17.645939421376646, "distance_from_ma50_pct": -22.14236071400294, "volatility_20d_pct": 154.02502086657427, "market_cap_usd": null, "avg_daily_volume_usd": null, "days_to_next_earnings": null, "earnings_confirmed": null, "news_sentiment_score": null, "news_headlines_last_3": [], "data_quality_note": "snapshot_ok_prices_technicals_only"}, {"symbol": "VIRI_CFD.FR", "name": "VIRIDIEN", "sector": "", "last_price": 127.1, "change_1d_pct": 32.258064516129025, "distance_from_ma200_pct": 86.88026988392838, "distance_from_ma50_pct": 29.097132641971314, "volatility_20d_pct": 297.97668648307325, "market_cap_usd": null, "avg_daily_volume_usd": null, "days_to_next_earnings": null, "earnings_confirmed": null, "news_sentiment_score": null, "news_headlines_last_3": [], "data_quality_note": "snapshot_ok_prices_technicals_only"}, {"symbol": "WKP_CFD.UK", "name": "WORKSPACE GROUP PLC", "sector": "", "last_price": 423.0, "change_1d_pct": 3.6764705882353033, "distance_from_ma200_pct": 1.8640028868691871, "distance_from_ma50_pct": 5.808194506978848, "volatility_20d_pct": 70.2233148398582, "market_cap_usd": null, "avg_daily_volume_usd": null, "days_to_next_earnings": null, "earnings_confirmed": null, "news_sentiment_score": null, "news_headlines_last_3": [], "data_quality_note": "snapshot_ok_prices_technicals_only"}, {"symbol": "DOCS_CFD.UK", "name": "DR. MARTENS PLC", "sector": "", "last_price": 64.5, "change_1d_pct": -3.5153328347045543, "distance_from_ma200_pct": -14.829841246785492, "distance_from_ma50_pct": -11.320702834987761, "volatility_20d_pct": 128.30568371469687, "market_cap_usd": null, "avg_daily_volume_usd": null, "days_to_next_earnings": null, "earnings_confirmed": null, "news_sentiment_score": null, "news_headlines_last_3": [], "data_quality_note": "snapshot_ok_prices_technicals_only"}, {"symbol": "ATG_CFD.UK", "name": "AUCTION TECHNOLOGY GROUP", "sector": "", "last_price": 326.5, "change_1d_pct": 12.006861063464846, "distance_from_ma200_pct": -24.987260470422935, "distance_from_ma50_pct": 5.84429056770146, "volatility_20d_pct": 172.45012969704524, "market_cap_usd": null, "avg_daily_volume_usd": null, "days_to_next_earnings": null, "earnings_confirmed": null, "news_sentiment_score": null, "news_headlines_last_3": [], "data_quality_note": "snapshot_ok_prices_technicals_only"}, {"symbol": "TTK_CFD.DE", "name": "TAKKT AG", "sector": "", "last_price": 2.57, "change_1d_pct": -0.7338740826574042, "distance_from_ma200_pct": -40.87128576194365, "distance_from_ma50_pct": -16.848930360170332, "volatility_20d_pct": 129.01714408762436, "market_cap_usd": null, "avg_daily_volume_usd": null, "days_to_next_earnings": null, "earnings_confirmed": null, "news_sentiment_score": null, "news_headlines_last_3": [], "data_quality_note": "snapshot_ok_prices_technicals_only"}, {"symbol": "VTY_CFD.UK", "name": "VISTRY GROUP PLC", "sector": "", "last_price": 336.5, "change_1d_pct": -52.24240703945502, "distance_from_ma200_pct": -45.76092188057602, "distance_from_ma50_pct": -43.644091924608695, "volatility_20d_pct": 220.52645545975528, "market_cap_usd": null, "avg_daily_volume_usd": null, "days_to_next_earnings": null, "earnings_confirmed": null, "news_sentiment_score": null, "news_headlines_last_3": [], "data_quality_note": "snapshot_ok_prices_technicals_only"}, {"symbol": "HMSO_CFD.UK", "name": "HAMMERSON PLC", "sector": "", "last_price": 355.4, "change_1d_pct": 14.129736673089276, "distance_from_ma200_pct": 22.516025502913806, "distance_from_ma50_pct": 10.006914897239172, "volatility_20d_pct": 87.54938293511039, "market_cap_usd": null, "avg_daily_volume_usd": null, "days_to_next_earnings": null, "earnings_confirmed": null, "news_sentiment_score": null, "news_headlines_last_3": [], "data_quality_note": "snapshot_ok_prices_technicals_only"}, {"symbol": "BRNK_CFD.DE", "name": "Branicks Group AG", "sector": "", "last_price": 1.4, "change_1d_pct": -0.7795889440113446, "distance_from_ma200_pct": -25.976449936286873, "distance_from_ma50_pct": -16.890271412627932, "volatility_20d_pct": 210.0912237919874, "market_cap_usd": null, "avg_daily_volume_usd": null, "days_to_next_earnings": null, "earnings_confirmed": null, "news_sentiment_score": null, "news_headlines_last_3": [], "data_quality_note": "snapshot_ok_prices_technicals_only"}, {"symbol": "MELE_CFD.BE", "name": "Melexis", "sector": "", "last_price": 56.7, "change_1d_pct": 2.8105167724388203, "distance_from_ma200_pct": -7.6282226570375204, "distance_from_ma50_pct": 1.7787040178355085, "volatility_20d_pct": 86.76068560618484, "market_cap_usd": null, "avg_daily_volume_usd": null, "days_to_next_earnings": null, "earnings_confirmed": null, "news_sentiment_score": null, "news_headlines_last_3": [], "data_quality_note": "snapshot_ok_prices_technicals_only"}, {"symbol": "LIO_CFD.UK", "name": "LIONTRUST ASSET MANAGEMENT", "sector": "", "last_price": 259.0, "change_1d_pct": 9.282700421940927, "distance_from_ma200_pct": -20.255122030446227, "distance_from_ma50_pct": 1.3575652269196326, "volatility_20d_pct": 159.60042022323034, "market_cap_usd": null, "avg_daily_volume_usd": null, "days_to_next_earnings": null, "earnings_confirmed": null, "news_sentiment_score": null, "news_headlines_last_3": [], "data_quality_note": "snapshot_ok_prices_technicals_only"}, {"symbol": "MDV_CFD.PL", "name": "Modivo S.A.", "sector": "", "last_price": 87.48, 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"market_cap_usd": null, "avg_daily_volume_usd": null, "days_to_next_earnings": null, "earnings_confirmed": null, "news_sentiment_score": null, "news_headlines_last_3": [], "data_quality_note": "snapshot_ok_prices_technicals_only"}, {"symbol": "LGEN_CFD.UK", "name": "LEGAL & GENERAL GROUP PLC", "sector": "", "last_price": 263.45, "change_1d_pct": 6.272690601048803, "distance_from_ma200_pct": 4.92575541963729, "distance_from_ma50_pct": 1.9227004621630517, "volatility_20d_pct": 74.46258537750292, "market_cap_usd": null, "avg_daily_volume_usd": null, "days_to_next_earnings": null, "earnings_confirmed": null, "news_sentiment_score": null, "news_headlines_last_3": [], "data_quality_note": "snapshot_ok_prices_technicals_only"}], "output_schema": {"selected_stocks": [{"symbol": "string", "mean_reversion_score": "integer 0-100", "selection_reason": "short, concrete, indicator-based"}], "rejected_common_reasons": ["string"]}}Output JSON
{
"raw": {
"id": "gen-1775673717-Kf1eYXNfGiXK6Xpus5Xv",
"model": "z-ai/glm-4.7-20251222",
"usage": {
"cost": 0.00421093,
"is_byok": false,
"cost_details": {
"upstream_inference_cost": 0.00421093,
"upstream_inference_prompt_cost": 0.00363168,
"upstream_inference_completions_cost": 0.00057925
},
"total_tokens": 9643,
"prompt_tokens": 9312,
"completion_tokens": 331,
"prompt_tokens_details": {
"audio_tokens": 0,
"video_tokens": 0,
"cached_tokens": 0,
"cache_write_tokens": 0
},
"completion_tokens_details": {
"audio_tokens": 0,
"image_tokens": 0,
"reasoning_tokens": 331
}
},
"object": "chat.completion",
"choices": [
{
"index": 0,
"message": {
"role": "assistant",
"content": null,
"refusal": null,
"reasoning": "```json\n{\n \"selected_stocks\": [\n {\n \"symbol\": \"VIRI_CFD.FR\",\n \"mean_reversion_score\": 85,\n \"selection_reason\": \"Extreme 1d gain 32.26% vs MA50 29.10% suggests overextension.\"\n },\n {\n \"symbol\": \"VTY_CFD.UK\",\n \"mean_reversion_score\": 82,\n \"selection_reason\": \"Massive 1d drop -52.24% far exceeds typical volatility, likely snapback.\"\n },\n {\n \"symbol\": \"AUTO_CFD.UK\",\n \"mean_reversion_score\": 80,\n \"selection_reason\": \"Severe 1d drop -38.63% with price -31.90% below MA50 indicates oversold.\"\n },\n {\n \"symbol\": \"JUP_CFD.UK\",\n \"mean_reversion_score\": 78,\n \"selection_reason\": \"Strong 1d gain 22.07% while 19.27% above MA50 signals short-term exhaustion.\"\n },\n {\n \"symbol\": \"BOY_CFD.UK\",\n \"mean_reversion_score\": 75,\n \"selection_reason\": \"Significant 1d gain 24.16% and 18.64% above MA50 suggests mean reversion.\"\n }\n ],\n \"rejected_common_reasons\": [\n \"Insufficient price deviation from moving averages.\",\n \"Low volatility or lack of directional momentum.\",\n \"Region mismatch (non-US symbols excluded).\"\n ]\n}",
"reasoning_details": [
{
"text": "```json\n{\n \"selected_stocks\": [\n {\n \"symbol\": \"VIRI_CFD.FR\",\n \"mean_reversion_score\": 85,\n \"selection_reason\": \"Extreme 1d gain 32.26% vs MA50 29.10% suggests overextension.\"\n },\n {\n \"symbol\": \"VTY_CFD.UK\",\n \"mean_reversion_score\": 82,\n \"selection_reason\": \"Massive 1d drop -52.24% far exceeds typical volatility, likely snapback.\"\n },\n {\n \"symbol\": \"AUTO_CFD.UK\",\n \"mean_reversion_score\": 80,\n \"selection_reason\": \"Severe 1d drop -38.63% with price -31.90% below MA50 indicates oversold.\"\n },\n {\n \"symbol\": \"JUP_CFD.UK\",\n \"mean_reversion_score\": 78,\n \"selection_reason\": \"Strong 1d gain 22.07% while 19.27% above MA50 signals short-term exhaustion.\"\n },\n {\n \"symbol\": \"BOY_CFD.UK\",\n \"mean_reversion_score\": 75,\n \"selection_reason\": \"Significant 1d gain 24.16% and 18.64% above MA50 suggests mean reversion.\"\n }\n ],\n \"rejected_common_reasons\": [\n \"Insufficient price deviation from moving averages.\",\n \"Low volatility or lack of directional momentum.\",\n \"Region mismatch (non-US symbols excluded).\"\n ]\n}",
"type": "reasoning.text",
"index": 0,
"format": "unknown"
}
]
},
"logprobs": null,
"finish_reason": "stop",
"native_finish_reason": "stop"
}
],
"created": 1775673717,
"provider": "Chutes",
"system_fingerprint": null
}
}#2182 • openrouter • z-ai/glm-4.7 • 2026-04-08T18:42:25.225521+00:00
System prompt
You are an Arena portfolio manager. You must follow the strategy rules strictly and output ONLY valid JSON. You are NOT allowed to invent prices/fundamentals/news/earnings. If a field is null/empty, treat it as unknown. Avoid overtrading: if changes are marginal, prefer HOLD. Do not churn.
User prompt
{"task": "stage2_portfolio_management", "region": "US", "strategy": {"key": "meanrev-v1", "name": "Two-Stage LLM Mean-Reversion (Arena v1)", "rules": {"max_positions": 10, "max_buys_per_run": 2, "avoid_overtrading": true, "max_sells_per_run": 2, "max_gross_leverage": 3.0, "fixed_position_size": 3000.0, "universe_symbols_eu": [], "universe_symbols_us": []}}, "portfolio_constraints": {"initial_equity": 10000.0, "max_positions": 10, "fixed_position_size": 3000.0, "max_gross_leverage": 3.0, "overtrading_rules": ["Max 2 SELL actions per run unless risk event forces more", "Max 2 BUY actions per run", "If no clear improvement vs current holdings, output HOLD for everything"]}, "current_portfolio": [{"symbol": "ADBE_CFD.US", "qty": 0.0, "avg_price": 249.47, "last_price": 236.65, "unrealized_pnl": 0.0, "opened_at": "2026-03-14T18:06:47.909233+00:00"}, {"symbol": "AUTO_CFD.UK", "qty": 6.2137531068765535, "avg_price": 482.8, "last_price": 482.8, "unrealized_pnl": 0.0, "opened_at": "2026-03-19T18:04:14.272849+00:00"}, {"symbol": "BIG_CFD.FR", "qty": 0.0, "avg_price": 0.453, "last_price": 0.3, "unrealized_pnl": 0.0, "opened_at": "2026-02-26T18:07:22.382508+00:00"}, {"symbol": "BTRW_CFD.UK", "qty": 0.0, "avg_price": 259.8, "last_price": 255.0, "unrealized_pnl": 0.0, "opened_at": "2026-04-04T18:08:49.555685+00:00"}, {"symbol": "BYIT_CFD.UK", "qty": 0.0, "avg_price": 292.6, "last_price": 292.6, "unrealized_pnl": 0.0, "opened_at": "2026-02-19T00:47:27.070066+00:00"}, {"symbol": "CBG_CFD.UK", "qty": 8.748396127376648, "avg_price": 342.92, "last_price": 342.92, "unrealized_pnl": 0.0, "opened_at": "2026-03-19T18:04:14.272849+00:00"}, {"symbol": "CCL_CFD.UK", "qty": 0.0, "avg_price": 1945.9999999999998, "last_price": 1988.5, "unrealized_pnl": 0.0, "opened_at": "2026-03-06T18:02:13.212382+00:00"}, {"symbol": "CRWD_CFD.US", "qty": 0.0, "avg_price": 349.425, "last_price": 374.67, "unrealized_pnl": 0.0, "opened_at": "2026-02-24T18:14:37.115518+00:00"}, {"symbol": "ERA_CFD.FR", "qty": 0.0, "avg_price": 47.4, "last_price": 52.1, "unrealized_pnl": 0.0, "opened_at": "2026-02-19T17:33:27.020111+00:00"}, {"symbol": "FICO_CFD.US", "qty": 0.0, "avg_price": 1127.4099999999999, "last_price": 1160.795, "unrealized_pnl": 0.0, "opened_at": "2026-03-14T18:06:47.909233+00:00"}, {"symbol": "FUTR_CFD.UK", "qty": 10.55594651653765, "avg_price": 284.2, "last_price": 297.6, "unrealized_pnl": 141.44968332160488, "opened_at": "2026-02-19T00:47:27.070066+00:00"}, {"symbol": "HIK_CFD.UK", "qty": 2.3529411764705883, "avg_price": 1275.0, "last_price": 1325.0, "unrealized_pnl": 117.64705882352942, "opened_at": "2026-03-02T10:31:26.559356+00:00"}, {"symbol": "IWG_CFD.UK", "qty": 17.421602787456447, "avg_price": 172.2, "last_price": 172.2, "unrealized_pnl": 0.0, "opened_at": "2026-03-17T10:04:29.123574+00:00"}, {"symbol": "KGF_CFD.UK", "qty": 10.384215991692628, "avg_price": 288.9, "last_price": 303.9, "unrealized_pnl": 155.76323987538942, "opened_at": "2026-03-26T10:11:44.579260+00:00"}, {"symbol": "OCDO_CFD.UK", "qty": 0.0, "avg_price": 217.0, "last_price": 204.3, "unrealized_pnl": 0.0, "opened_at": "2026-02-16T17:30:52.485845+00:00"}, {"symbol": "PAGE_CFD.UK", "qty": 45.14672686230248, "avg_price": 132.9, "last_price": 132.9, "unrealized_pnl": 0.0, "opened_at": "2026-02-21T09:33:26.900894+00:00"}, {"symbol": "RMV_CFD.UK", "qty": 6.8807339449541285, "avg_price": 436.0, "last_price": 436.0, "unrealized_pnl": 0.0, "opened_at": "2026-02-21T09:33:26.900894+00:00"}, {"symbol": "THG_CFD.UK", "qty": 0.0, "avg_price": 34.98, "last_price": 34.98, "unrealized_pnl": 0.0, "opened_at": "2026-02-24T18:14:37.115518+00:00"}, {"symbol": "TRST_CFD.UK", "qty": 14.111006585136407, "avg_price": 212.6, "last_price": 212.6, "unrealized_pnl": 0.0, "opened_at": "2026-02-16T17:30:52.485845+00:00"}, {"symbol": "TUI1_CFD.DE", "qty": 0.0, "avg_price": 7.398000000000001, "last_price": 6.723, "unrealized_pnl": 0.0, "opened_at": "2026-03-02T10:31:26.559356+00:00"}, {"symbol": "VTY_CFD.UK", "qty": 0.0, "avg_price": 338.75, "last_price": 330.2, "unrealized_pnl": 0.0, "opened_at": "2026-03-17T10:04:29.123574+00:00"}, {"symbol": "XRX_CFD.US", "qty": 0.0, "avg_price": 1.73, "last_price": 1.83, "unrealized_pnl": 0.0, "opened_at": "2026-02-26T18:07:22.382508+00:00"}, {"symbol": "ZS_CFD.US", "qty": 0.0, "avg_price": 141.32, "last_price": 133.07, "unrealized_pnl": 0.0, "opened_at": "2026-02-22T17:33:48.338981+00:00"}], "candidates": [], "output_schema": {"actions": {"sell": [{"symbol": "string", "reason": "string"}], "hold": [{"symbol": "string", "reason": "string"}], "buy": [{"symbol": "string", "position_size": "number (currency amount)", "reason": "string"}]}, "portfolio_rationale": "string"}}Output JSON
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"content": "{\n \"actions\": {\n \"sell\": [],\n \"hold\": [\n {\n \"symbol\": \"AUTO_CFD.UK\",\n \"reason\": \"No clear sell signal. Price is at entry.\"\n },\n {\n \"symbol\": \"CBG_CFD.UK\",\n \"reason\": \"No clear sell signal. Price is at entry.\"\n },\n {\n \"symbol\": \"FUTR_CFD.UK\",\n \"reason\": \"Marginal gain (~4.7%). Avoiding overtrading.\"\n },\n {\n \"symbol\": \"HIK_CFD.UK\",\n \"reason\": \"Marginal gain (~3.9%). Avoiding overtrading.\"\n },\n {\n \"symbol\": \"IWG_CFD.UK\",\n \"reason\": \"No clear sell signal. Price is at entry.\"\n },\n {\n \"symbol\": \"KGF_CFD.UK\",\n \"reason\": \"Marginal gain (~5.2%). Avoiding overtrading.\"\n },\n {\n \"symbol\": \"PAGE_CFD.UK\",\n \"reason\": \"No clear sell signal. Price is at",
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"reasoning": "1. **Analyze the Request:**\n * **Role:** Arena portfolio manager.\n * **Task:** Stage 2 portfolio management.\n * **Strategy:** Two-Stage LLM Mean-Reversion (Arena v1).\n * **Rules:**\n * Max positions: 10.\n * Max buys per run: 2.\n * Max sells per run: 2.\n * Avoid overtrading (prefer HOLD if marginal).\n * Max gross leverage: 3.0.\n * Fixed position size: $3000.0.\n * Universe: US and EU symbols provided in the strategy (though the input lists specific symbols in `current_portfolio` and `candidates` is empty). Wait, the strategy says `universe_symbols_eu` and `universe_symbols_us` are empty lists `[]`. This is a bit contradictory if I'm supposed to trade, but I must stick to the provided data. The `current_portfolio` has many symbols.\n * **Current Portfolio State:**\n * Total positions listed: 23.\n * Active positions (qty > 0): AUTO, CBG, FUTR, HIK, IWG, KGF, PAGE, RMV, TRST. (9 positions).\n * Closed positions (qty = 0): ADBE, BIG, BTRW, BYIT, CCL, CRWD, ERA, FICO, OCDO, THG, TUI1, VTY, XRX, ZS.\n * **Constraints:**\n * Max positions is 10. I currently have 9 active positions.\n * Max sells: 2.\n * Max buys: 2.\n * Fixed position size: $3000.\n * **Strategy Logic (Mean-Reversion):**\n * Generally, buy low (oversold) and sell high (overbought) relative to some mean, or close positions that have reverted.\n * Since I don't have historical data or indicators (RSI, Bollinger Bands, Moving Averages) provided in the prompt, I have to infer \"mean reversion\" signals from the *current* state provided: `last_price` vs `avg_price` and `unrealized_pnl`.\n * *However*, the prompt explicitly says: \"You are NOT allowed to invent prices/fundamentals/news/earnings.\"\n * This makes it very hard to apply a standard mean-reversion strategy which relies on historical context. I must rely on the provided `current_portfolio` data.\n * Let's look at the active positions:\n * AUTO: PnL 0. Price = Avg.\n * CBG: PnL 0. Price = Avg.\n * FUTR: PnL +141.45. Price (297.6) > Avg (284.2). Up ~4.7%.\n * HIK: PnL +117.65. Price (1325) > Avg (1275). Up ~3.9%.\n * IWG: PnL 0. Price = Avg.\n * KGF: PnL +155.76. Price (303.9) > Avg (288.9). Up ~5.2%.\n * PAGE: PnL 0. Price = Avg.\n * RMV: PnL 0. Price = Avg.\n * TRST: PnL 0. Price = Avg.\n * Let's look at the closed positions (qty 0) to see if there are \"buy\" opportunities (assuming they dropped or are available). The `candidates` list is empty. Usually, in these tasks, if `candidates` is empty, I shouldn't initiate new buys on random symbols unless they were recently closed and look attractive, or I just manage the existing portfolio.\n * *Crucial Observation:* The prompt says `candidates` is `[]`. This implies I have no new buy signals generated by Stage 1. Therefore, I should likely focus on managing existing positions (Selling winners that have \"reverted\" or hit targets, or holding).\n * *Wait*, if the strategy is Mean Reversion, and I have winners (FUTR, HIK, KGF), these might be candidates to SELL to lock in profits (reversion completed). The flat positions (AUTO, CBG, IWG, PAGE, RMV, TRST) are just sitting there.\n * Without specific \"Buy\" candidates provided in the `candidates` field, I cannot execute a BUY action because I don't know *what* to buy. I cannot invent a symbol. I can only buy symbols that are in the universe or candidates. Since `candidates` is empty, I will assume no BUYs are possible or recommended by the upstream signal generator.\n * Therefore, the decision space is limited to SELL or HOLD existing positions.\n\n2. **Evaluate Active Positions for SELL (Mean Reversion - Taking Profits):**\n * **FUTR:** +4.7% gain. Is this a \"reversion\"? It's a modest gain. Without a defined target, it's hard to say. But given \"Avoid overtrading\", selling a 4.7% gainer might be premature unless the strategy is very short-term.\n * **HIK:** +3.9% gain. Similar to FUTR.\n * **KGF:** +5.2% gain. Similar to FUTR.\n * **Others:** Flat (0 PnL). No reason to sell unless to free up capital for a better trade, but I have no better trades (candidates empty).\n\n * *Alternative Interpretation:* Maybe the \"Mean Reversion\" implies buying the losers?\n * Let's check the closed positions (qty 0) with negative PnL or lower current price than avg price.\n * ADBE: Last 236.65, Avg 249.47. Down ~5.1%. (Qty 0).\n * BIG: Last 0.3, Avg 0.453. Down ~33%. (Qty 0).\n * BTRW: Last 255.0, Avg 259.8. Down ~1.8%. (Qty 0).\n * CCL: Last 1988.5, Avg 1946. Up. (Qty 0).\n * CRWD: Last 374.67, Avg 349.425. Up. (Qty 0).\n * ERA: Last 52.1, Avg 47.4. Up. (Qty 0).\n * FICO: Last 1160.8, Avg 1127.4. Up. (Qty 0).\n * OCDO: Last 204.3, Avg 217.0. Down ~5.8%. (Qty 0).\n * TUI1: Last 6.723, Avg 7.398. Down ~9.1%. (Qty 0).\n * VTY: Last 330.2, Avg 338.75. Down ~2.5%. (Qty 0).\n * ZS: Last 133.07, Avg 141.32. Down ~5.8%. (Qty 0).\n * XRX: Last 1.83, Avg 1.73. Up. (Qty 0).\n\n * *Dilemma:* I have 9 positions. Max is 10. I have room for 1 more. I have 2 buy slots. I have 2 sell slots.\n * If I buy a \"loser\" (Mean Reversion strategy: buy low), which one?\n * ADBE (-5%), OCDO (-5.8%), TUI1 (-9%), ZS (-5.8%).\n * However, the `candidates` list is empty. In the Arena workflow, Stage 1 usually populates `candidates`. If it's empty, it usually means \"No new trade signals\". I should probably respect that and not initiate new trades on closed positions unless explicitly told to look there. The prompt says \"candidates\": [].\n * If I strictly follow \"You are NOT allowed to invent...\", and the list of candidates is empty, I have no valid targets for BUY.\n * Therefore, I should focus on SELLING the winners (reversion) or HOLDING.\n\n * *Re-evaluating SELLs:*\n * FUTR, HIK, KGF are showing profits.\n * Is 4-5% enough for a mean reversion trade? It's a reasonable short-term swing.\n * However, the rule \"Avoid overtrading: if changes are marginal, prefer HOLD\" applies.\n * Is 5% marginal? It's not huge, but it's positive.\n * Let's look at the \"flat\" positions. AUTO, CBG, IWG, PAGE, RMV, TRST. These are doing nothing.\n * If I sell the winners, I go to cash or wait.\n * If I hold, I keep exposure.\n * Without a strong signal to sell (e.g., \"Overbought\" indicator), and given the \"Avoid overtrading\" rule, selling a 4% gain might be considered churning if the trend continues.\n * Conversely, Mean Reversion implies selling when price deviates *above* the mean. Since I don't have the mean, I use the entry price as a proxy. The price is above entry.\n * Let's look at the losers in the closed list again. If I can't buy them because `candidates` is empty, I can't buy them.\n * So, the only logical action is HOLD everything, or SELL the top performers if we assume the reversion is done.\n * Given the strict instruction \"If no clear improvement vs current holdings, output HOLD for everything\", and the fact that I have no candidates to buy into, selling winners just to sit in cash is not necessarily an \"improvement\".\n * However, if I look at the positions, many are flat. The portfolio is stagnant.\n * Let's check if any of the flat positions should be cut? No, they are at break-even.\n * Let's check if any of the winners are \"hot\". KGF (+5%), FUTR (+4.7%), HIK (+3.9%).\n * If I sell KGF and FUTR, I realize ~$300 profit.\n * If I hold, I risk it dropping back.\n * Given the strategy is \"Mean Reversion\", the expectation is that prices return to the mean. If they are above the entry (mean proxy), they should revert down. So selling is theoretically correct.\n * But \"Avoid overtrading\" is a strong constraint. 4-5% is a tight range for transaction costs/slippage to eat into, though CFDs usually have tight spreads.\n * Let's look at the `candidates` field again. It is explicitly `[]`. This is the strongest signal. The system did not find any new setups. It did not flag any existing positions for immediate exit.\n * Therefore, the safest and most compliant action is to HOLD all existing positions.\n\n * *Wait, let's double check the `current_portfolio` logic.*\n * Some positions have `qty: 0.0`. These are effectively closed.\n * I should only output actions for `qty > 0` (Active) or `buy` actions.\n * Since `candidates` is empty, no `buy` actions.\n * For `sell` actions: I need a reason.\n * Reason for selling FUTR: \"Price reverted above mean, taking profit.\"\n * Reason for selling KGF: \"Price reverted above mean, taking profit.\"\n * Is 5% a \"reversion\"? It's a start.\n * However, looking at the \"Avoid overtrading\" rule again: \"If no clear improvement vs current holdings, output HOLD for everything\".\n * Selling FUTR and KGF to hold cash is not an improvement over holding FUTR and KGF if they might go higher or stay flat.\n * Also, I have 9 positions. Max is 10. I have room.\n * I will stick to HOLD for all active positions. The lack of candidates suggests the market isn't offering clear mean-reversion setups elsewhere, and the current winners aren't extreme enough to force a sell given the \"avoid overtrading\" rule.\n\n * *Refining the decision:*\n * Active: AUTO, CBG, FUTR, HIK, IWG, KGF, PAGE, RMV, TRST.\n * All are held.\n * No buys (candidates empty).\n * No sells (marginal gains, avoid overtrading).\n\n * *Wait, is there a risk event?* No news provided.\n * *Are any positions hitting a stop loss?* No data on stops.\n * *Are any positions hitting a take profit?* No data on targets.\n\n * *Conclusion:* Do nothing. Output HOLD for all active symbols.\n\n * *Structure of Output:*\n * `actions`:\n * `sell`: []\n * `hold`: [List of active symbols]\n * `buy`: []\n * `portfolio_rationale`: Explanation.\n\n * *Active Symbols List:*\n * AUTO_CFD.UK\n * CBG_CFD.UK\n * FUTR_CFD.UK\n * HIK_CFD.UK\n * IWG_CFD.UK\n * KGF_CFD.UK\n * PAGE_CFD.UK\n * RMV_CFD.UK\n * TRST_CFD.UK\n\n * *Rationale Draft:* The candidates list is empty, indicating no new mean-reversion entry signals. Existing positions show marginal performance (FUTR, HIK, KGF slightly up; others flat). Per the \"avoid overtrading\" rule and the instruction to prefer HOLD when changes are marginal, no trades are executed. The portfolio remains fully invested within the 10-position limit.\n\n * *Check constraints:*\n * Max positions: 10 (Current: 9). OK.\n * Max buys: 2 (Current: 0). OK.\n * Max sells: 2 (Current: 0). OK.\n * Leverage: Fixed size 3000. 9 * 3000 = 27000 exposure. Equity 10000. Leverage 2.7. Max 3.0. OK.\n\n * *Final check:* Did I miss anything?\n * \"You are NOT allowed to invent prices/fundamentals/news/earnings.\" -> I didn't.\n * \"If unsure, please default to using {\"answer\":\"$your_answer\"}.\" -> I am using the specified schema.\n * \"Ensure to always use '```'End the code block to indicate the end of the JSON object.\" -> Will do.\n\n * *Wait, what about the symbols with qty 0?*\n * The prompt lists them in `current_portfolio`. Usually, these are historical records. I should not include them in the `hold` list if they are closed, or I should just ignore them. The `hold` action usually applies to active positions. I will list the active ones.\n\n * *One edge case:* What if the \"Mean Reversion\" strategy implies I *must* sell the winners because they are no longer \"mean\"?\n * Without a specific \"Sell Signal\" or \"Overbought\" flag in the input data, I am guessing the threshold. 4-5% is low.\n * The prompt says \"If no clear improvement vs current holdings, output HOLD for everything\".\n * Selling winners to hold cash is rarely an \"improvement\" in a vacuum unless the cash is needed for a better trade. Since no better trades exist (candidates empty), HOLD is the correct path.\n\n * *Constructing JSON:*\n * `sell`: []\n * `hold`: AUTO_CFD.UK, CBG_CFD.UK, FUTR_CFD.UK, HIK_CFD.UK, IWG_CFD.UK, KGF_CFD.UK, PAGE_CFD.UK, RMV_CFD.UK, TRST_CFD.UK\n * `buy`: []\n * `portfolio_rationale`: \"No new candidates provided. Existing positions show marginal performance (FUTR, HIK, KGF slightly positive; others flat). Adhering to overtrading rules, holding all positions to avoid churning on small moves.\"\n\n * Let's verify the symbol strings.\n * AUTO_CFD.UK\n * CBG_CFD.UK\n * FUTR_CFD.UK\n * HIK_CFD.UK\n * IWG_CFD.UK\n * KGF_CFD.UK\n * PAGE_CFD.UK\n * RMV_CFD.UK\n * TRST_CFD.UK\n\n * Looks correct.",
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"text": "1. **Analyze the Request:**\n * **Role:** Arena portfolio manager.\n * **Task:** Stage 2 portfolio management.\n * **Strategy:** Two-Stage LLM Mean-Reversion (Arena v1).\n * **Rules:**\n * Max positions: 10.\n * Max buys per run: 2.\n * Max sells per run: 2.\n * Avoid overtrading (prefer HOLD if marginal).\n * Max gross leverage: 3.0.\n * Fixed position size: $3000.0.\n * Universe: US and EU symbols provided in the strategy (though the input lists specific symbols in `current_portfolio` and `candidates` is empty). Wait, the strategy says `universe_symbols_eu` and `universe_symbols_us` are empty lists `[]`. This is a bit contradictory if I'm supposed to trade, but I must stick to the provided data. The `current_portfolio` has many symbols.\n * **Current Portfolio State:**\n * Total positions listed: 23.\n * Active positions (qty > 0): AUTO, CBG, FUTR, HIK, IWG, KGF, PAGE, RMV, TRST. (9 positions).\n * Closed positions (qty = 0): ADBE, BIG, BTRW, BYIT, CCL, CRWD, ERA, FICO, OCDO, THG, TUI1, VTY, XRX, ZS.\n * **Constraints:**\n * Max positions is 10. I currently have 9 active positions.\n * Max sells: 2.\n * Max buys: 2.\n * Fixed position size: $3000.\n * **Strategy Logic (Mean-Reversion):**\n * Generally, buy low (oversold) and sell high (overbought) relative to some mean, or close positions that have reverted.\n * Since I don't have historical data or indicators (RSI, Bollinger Bands, Moving Averages) provided in the prompt, I have to infer \"mean reversion\" signals from the *current* state provided: `last_price` vs `avg_price` and `unrealized_pnl`.\n * *However*, the prompt explicitly says: \"You are NOT allowed to invent prices/fundamentals/news/earnings.\"\n * This makes it very hard to apply a standard mean-reversion strategy which relies on historical context. I must rely on the provided `current_portfolio` data.\n * Let's look at the active positions:\n * AUTO: PnL 0. Price = Avg.\n * CBG: PnL 0. Price = Avg.\n * FUTR: PnL +141.45. Price (297.6) > Avg (284.2). Up ~4.7%.\n * HIK: PnL +117.65. Price (1325) > Avg (1275). Up ~3.9%.\n * IWG: PnL 0. Price = Avg.\n * KGF: PnL +155.76. Price (303.9) > Avg (288.9). Up ~5.2%.\n * PAGE: PnL 0. Price = Avg.\n * RMV: PnL 0. Price = Avg.\n * TRST: PnL 0. Price = Avg.\n * Let's look at the closed positions (qty 0) to see if there are \"buy\" opportunities (assuming they dropped or are available). The `candidates` list is empty. Usually, in these tasks, if `candidates` is empty, I shouldn't initiate new buys on random symbols unless they were recently closed and look attractive, or I just manage the existing portfolio.\n * *Crucial Observation:* The prompt says `candidates` is `[]`. This implies I have no new buy signals generated by Stage 1. Therefore, I should likely focus on managing existing positions (Selling winners that have \"reverted\" or hit targets, or holding).\n * *Wait*, if the strategy is Mean Reversion, and I have winners (FUTR, HIK, KGF), these might be candidates to SELL to lock in profits (reversion completed). The flat positions (AUTO, CBG, IWG, PAGE, RMV, TRST) are just sitting there.\n * Without specific \"Buy\" candidates provided in the `candidates` field, I cannot execute a BUY action because I don't know *what* to buy. I cannot invent a symbol. I can only buy symbols that are in the universe or candidates. Since `candidates` is empty, I will assume no BUYs are possible or recommended by the upstream signal generator.\n * Therefore, the decision space is limited to SELL or HOLD existing positions.\n\n2. **Evaluate Active Positions for SELL (Mean Reversion - Taking Profits):**\n * **FUTR:** +4.7% gain. Is this a \"reversion\"? It's a modest gain. Without a defined target, it's hard to say. But given \"Avoid overtrading\", selling a 4.7% gainer might be premature unless the strategy is very short-term.\n * **HIK:** +3.9% gain. Similar to FUTR.\n * **KGF:** +5.2% gain. Similar to FUTR.\n * **Others:** Flat (0 PnL). No reason to sell unless to free up capital for a better trade, but I have no better trades (candidates empty).\n\n * *Alternative Interpretation:* Maybe the \"Mean Reversion\" implies buying the losers?\n * Let's check the closed positions (qty 0) with negative PnL or lower current price than avg price.\n * ADBE: Last 236.65, Avg 249.47. Down ~5.1%. (Qty 0).\n * BIG: Last 0.3, Avg 0.453. Down ~33%. (Qty 0).\n * BTRW: Last 255.0, Avg 259.8. Down ~1.8%. (Qty 0).\n * CCL: Last 1988.5, Avg 1946. Up. (Qty 0).\n * CRWD: Last 374.67, Avg 349.425. Up. (Qty 0).\n * ERA: Last 52.1, Avg 47.4. Up. (Qty 0).\n * FICO: Last 1160.8, Avg 1127.4. Up. (Qty 0).\n * OCDO: Last 204.3, Avg 217.0. Down ~5.8%. (Qty 0).\n * TUI1: Last 6.723, Avg 7.398. Down ~9.1%. (Qty 0).\n * VTY: Last 330.2, Avg 338.75. Down ~2.5%. (Qty 0).\n * ZS: Last 133.07, Avg 141.32. Down ~5.8%. (Qty 0).\n * XRX: Last 1.83, Avg 1.73. Up. (Qty 0).\n\n * *Dilemma:* I have 9 positions. Max is 10. I have room for 1 more. I have 2 buy slots. I have 2 sell slots.\n * If I buy a \"loser\" (Mean Reversion strategy: buy low), which one?\n * ADBE (-5%), OCDO (-5.8%), TUI1 (-9%), ZS (-5.8%).\n * However, the `candidates` list is empty. In the Arena workflow, Stage 1 usually populates `candidates`. If it's empty, it usually means \"No new trade signals\". I should probably respect that and not initiate new trades on closed positions unless explicitly told to look there. The prompt says \"candidates\": [].\n * If I strictly follow \"You are NOT allowed to invent...\", and the list of candidates is empty, I have no valid targets for BUY.\n * Therefore, I should focus on SELLING the winners (reversion) or HOLDING.\n\n * *Re-evaluating SELLs:*\n * FUTR, HIK, KGF are showing profits.\n * Is 4-5% enough for a mean reversion trade? It's a reasonable short-term swing.\n * However, the rule \"Avoid overtrading: if changes are marginal, prefer HOLD\" applies.\n * Is 5% marginal? It's not huge, but it's positive.\n * Let's look at the \"flat\" positions. AUTO, CBG, IWG, PAGE, RMV, TRST. These are doing nothing.\n * If I sell the winners, I go to cash or wait.\n * If I hold, I keep exposure.\n * Without a strong signal to sell (e.g., \"Overbought\" indicator), and given the \"Avoid overtrading\" rule, selling a 4% gain might be considered churning if the trend continues.\n * Conversely, Mean Reversion implies selling when price deviates *above* the mean. Since I don't have the mean, I use the entry price as a proxy. The price is above entry.\n * Let's look at the losers in the closed list again. If I can't buy them because `candidates` is empty, I can't buy them.\n * So, the only logical action is HOLD everything, or SELL the top performers if we assume the reversion is done.\n * Given the strict instruction \"If no clear improvement vs current holdings, output HOLD for everything\", and the fact that I have no candidates to buy into, selling winners just to sit in cash is not necessarily an \"improvement\".\n * However, if I look at the positions, many are flat. The portfolio is stagnant.\n * Let's check if any of the flat positions should be cut? No, they are at break-even.\n * Let's check if any of the winners are \"hot\". KGF (+5%), FUTR (+4.7%), HIK (+3.9%).\n * If I sell KGF and FUTR, I realize ~$300 profit.\n * If I hold, I risk it dropping back.\n * Given the strategy is \"Mean Reversion\", the expectation is that prices return to the mean. If they are above the entry (mean proxy), they should revert down. So selling is theoretically correct.\n * But \"Avoid overtrading\" is a strong constraint. 4-5% is a tight range for transaction costs/slippage to eat into, though CFDs usually have tight spreads.\n * Let's look at the `candidates` field again. It is explicitly `[]`. This is the strongest signal. The system did not find any new setups. It did not flag any existing positions for immediate exit.\n * Therefore, the safest and most compliant action is to HOLD all existing positions.\n\n * *Wait, let's double check the `current_portfolio` logic.*\n * Some positions have `qty: 0.0`. These are effectively closed.\n * I should only output actions for `qty > 0` (Active) or `buy` actions.\n * Since `candidates` is empty, no `buy` actions.\n * For `sell` actions: I need a reason.\n * Reason for selling FUTR: \"Price reverted above mean, taking profit.\"\n * Reason for selling KGF: \"Price reverted above mean, taking profit.\"\n * Is 5% a \"reversion\"? It's a start.\n * However, looking at the \"Avoid overtrading\" rule again: \"If no clear improvement vs current holdings, output HOLD for everything\".\n * Selling FUTR and KGF to hold cash is not an improvement over holding FUTR and KGF if they might go higher or stay flat.\n * Also, I have 9 positions. Max is 10. I have room.\n * I will stick to HOLD for all active positions. The lack of candidates suggests the market isn't offering clear mean-reversion setups elsewhere, and the current winners aren't extreme enough to force a sell given the \"avoid overtrading\" rule.\n\n * *Refining the decision:*\n * Active: AUTO, CBG, FUTR, HIK, IWG, KGF, PAGE, RMV, TRST.\n * All are held.\n * No buys (candidates empty).\n * No sells (marginal gains, avoid overtrading).\n\n * *Wait, is there a risk event?* No news provided.\n * *Are any positions hitting a stop loss?* No data on stops.\n * *Are any positions hitting a take profit?* No data on targets.\n\n * *Conclusion:* Do nothing. Output HOLD for all active symbols.\n\n * *Structure of Output:*\n * `actions`:\n * `sell`: []\n * `hold`: [List of active symbols]\n * `buy`: []\n * `portfolio_rationale`: Explanation.\n\n * *Active Symbols List:*\n * AUTO_CFD.UK\n * CBG_CFD.UK\n * FUTR_CFD.UK\n * HIK_CFD.UK\n * IWG_CFD.UK\n * KGF_CFD.UK\n * PAGE_CFD.UK\n * RMV_CFD.UK\n * TRST_CFD.UK\n\n * *Rationale Draft:* The candidates list is empty, indicating no new mean-reversion entry signals. Existing positions show marginal performance (FUTR, HIK, KGF slightly up; others flat). Per the \"avoid overtrading\" rule and the instruction to prefer HOLD when changes are marginal, no trades are executed. The portfolio remains fully invested within the 10-position limit.\n\n * *Check constraints:*\n * Max positions: 10 (Current: 9). OK.\n * Max buys: 2 (Current: 0). OK.\n * Max sells: 2 (Current: 0). OK.\n * Leverage: Fixed size 3000. 9 * 3000 = 27000 exposure. Equity 10000. Leverage 2.7. Max 3.0. OK.\n\n * *Final check:* Did I miss anything?\n * \"You are NOT allowed to invent prices/fundamentals/news/earnings.\" -> I didn't.\n * \"If unsure, please default to using {\"answer\":\"$your_answer\"}.\" -> I am using the specified schema.\n * \"Ensure to always use '```'End the code block to indicate the end of the JSON object.\" -> Will do.\n\n * *Wait, what about the symbols with qty 0?*\n * The prompt lists them in `current_portfolio`. Usually, these are historical records. I should not include them in the `hold` list if they are closed, or I should just ignore them. The `hold` action usually applies to active positions. I will list the active ones.\n\n * *One edge case:* What if the \"Mean Reversion\" strategy implies I *must* sell the winners because they are no longer \"mean\"?\n * Without a specific \"Sell Signal\" or \"Overbought\" flag in the input data, I am guessing the threshold. 4-5% is low.\n * The prompt says \"If no clear improvement vs current holdings, output HOLD for everything\".\n * Selling winners to hold cash is rarely an \"improvement\" in a vacuum unless the cash is needed for a better trade. Since no better trades exist (candidates empty), HOLD is the correct path.\n\n * *Constructing JSON:*\n * `sell`: []\n * `hold`: AUTO_CFD.UK, CBG_CFD.UK, FUTR_CFD.UK, HIK_CFD.UK, IWG_CFD.UK, KGF_CFD.UK, PAGE_CFD.UK, RMV_CFD.UK, TRST_CFD.UK\n * `buy`: []\n * `portfolio_rationale`: \"No new candidates provided. Existing positions show marginal performance (FUTR, HIK, KGF slightly positive; others flat). Adhering to overtrading rules, holding all positions to avoid churning on small moves.\"\n\n * Let's verify the symbol strings.\n * AUTO_CFD.UK\n * CBG_CFD.UK\n * FUTR_CFD.UK\n * HIK_CFD.UK\n * IWG_CFD.UK\n * KGF_CFD.UK\n * PAGE_CFD.UK\n * RMV_CFD.UK\n * TRST_CFD.UK\n\n * Looks correct.",
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#1058 • stage1 • 2026-04-08T18:42:25.223018+00:00
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"reasoning": "```json\n{\n \"selected_stocks\": [\n {\n \"symbol\": \"VIRI_CFD.FR\",\n \"mean_reversion_score\": 85,\n \"selection_reason\": \"Extreme 1d gain 32.26% vs MA50 29.10% suggests overextension.\"\n },\n {\n \"symbol\": \"VTY_CFD.UK\",\n \"mean_reversion_score\": 82,\n \"selection_reason\": \"Massive 1d drop -52.24% far exceeds typical volatility, likely snapback.\"\n },\n {\n \"symbol\": \"AUTO_CFD.UK\",\n \"mean_reversion_score\": 80,\n \"selection_reason\": \"Severe 1d drop -38.63% with price -31.90% below MA50 indicates oversold.\"\n },\n {\n \"symbol\": \"JUP_CFD.UK\",\n \"mean_reversion_score\": 78,\n \"selection_reason\": \"Strong 1d gain 22.07% while 19.27% above MA50 signals short-term exhaustion.\"\n },\n {\n \"symbol\": \"BOY_CFD.UK\",\n \"mean_reversion_score\": 75,\n \"selection_reason\": \"Significant 1d gain 24.16% and 18.64% above MA50 suggests mean reversion.\"\n }\n ],\n \"rejected_common_reasons\": [\n \"Insufficient price deviation from moving averages.\",\n \"Low volatility or lack of directional momentum.\",\n \"Region mismatch (non-US symbols excluded).\"\n ]\n}",
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