Arena run #1122
meanrev-v1 • x-ai • x-ai/grok-4.1-fast • EU • success
Run status
as_of: 2026-04-08T10:08:21.944296+00:00
started_at: 2026-04-08T11:48:15.712290+00:00
finished_at: 2026-04-08T11:49:05.072628+00:00
duration_ms: 49359
Inputs
{
"as_of": "2026-04-08T10:08:21.944296+00:00",
"dry_run": false,
"selected": [
{
"symbol": "PAGE_CFD.UK",
"selection_reason": "-37% 1d change, -41% from MA200, -32% from MA50, vol 193%",
"mean_reversion_score": 100
},
{
"symbol": "OCDO_CFD.UK",
"selection_reason": "-28% 1d change, -25% from MA200, -17% from MA50, vol 249%",
"mean_reversion_score": 98
},
{
"symbol": "CBG_CFD.UK",
"selection_reason": "-27% 1d change, -13% from MA200, -22% from MA50, vol 169%",
"mean_reversion_score": 96
},
{
"symbol": "BOY_CFD.UK",
"selection_reason": "+24% 1d change, +29% from MA200, +19% from MA50, vol 103%",
"mean_reversion_score": 94
},
{
"symbol": "RS1_CFD.UK",
"selection_reason": "+24% 1d change, +26% from MA200, +24% from MA50, vol 103%",
"mean_reversion_score": 92
}
],
"simulate_only": false,
"strict_replay": false,
"universe_symbols": [
"HAS_CFD.UK",
"RS1_CFD.UK",
"JUP_CFD.UK",
"BOY_CFD.UK",
"THG_CFD.UK",
"CRST_CFD.UK",
"PAGE_CFD.UK",
"FGP_CFD.UK",
"JDW_CFD.UK",
"SHC_CFD.UK",
"PAG_CFD.UK",
"SAFE_CFD.UK",
"RHIM_CFD.UK",
"HBR_CFD.UK",
"PNN_CFD.UK",
"CBG_CFD.UK",
"RSW_CFD.UK",
"DLN_CFD.UK",
"TPK_CFD.UK",
"DOM_CFD.UK",
"MAB_CFD.UK",
"CNA_CFD.UK",
"HUBS_CFD.US",
"OCDO_CFD.UK",
"ESNT_CFD.UK",
"IPO_CFD.UK",
"VXXB_CFD.ETF",
"GROW_CFD.UK",
"SMG_CFD.US",
"BME_CFD.UK",
"IWG_CFD.UK",
"COTY_CFD.US",
"ATG_CFD.UK",
"CABO_CFD.US"
]
}Outputs
{
"actions": {
"buy": [
{
"reason": "High meanrev score 98, oversold (-28% 1d change, -25% from MA200, -17% from MA50, vol 249%)",
"symbol": "OCDO_CFD.UK",
"position_size": 3000
}
],
"hold": [
{
"reason": "Flat PnL, recently opened, no strong sell signal, hold to avoid overtrading",
"symbol": "AUTO_CFD.UK"
},
{
"reason": "High meanrev score 96, oversold (-27% 1d, -13% MA200, -22% MA50), strong hold",
"symbol": "CBG_CFD.UK"
},
{
"reason": "Profitable (+141 PnL), no overbought signal, hold",
"symbol": "FUTR_CFD.UK"
},
{
"reason": "Flat PnL, recently opened, no signal, hold to avoid overtrading",
"symbol": "HAS_CFD.UK"
},
{
"reason": "Flat PnL, no signal, hold to avoid overtrading",
"symbol": "IWG_CFD.UK"
},
{
"reason": "Strongly profitable (+474 PnL), no overbought signal, hold",
"symbol": "MCG_CFD.UK"
},
{
"reason": "Top meanrev score 100, oversold (-37% 1d, -41% MA200, -32% MA50), strong hold",
"symbol": "PAGE_CFD.UK"
},
{
"reason": "Flat PnL, no signal, hold to avoid overtrading",
"symbol": "THG_CFD.UK"
}
],
"sell": []
},
"portfolio_rationale": "Mean-reversion strategy: Buy top new oversold candidate OCDO_CFD.UK (score 98). Hold all 8 current positions (no overbought signals in portfolio, PAGE/CBG reinforced as oversold; profitable FUTR/MCG held). Ignore overbought candidates BOY/RS1 as not held and long-only implied. 1 buy < max 2, positions 8->9 <=10, avoids overtrading, leverage safe."
}Prompts & responses
#2170 • openrouter • x-ai/grok-4.1-fast • 2026-04-08T11:48:15.747129+00:00
System prompt
You are an Arena strategy executor. You must follow the strategy rules strictly and output ONLY valid JSON. You are NOT allowed to invent prices, fundamentals, earnings dates, or sentiment. If a field is null/empty, treat it as unknown. You are a constrained selector (no narrative).
User prompt
{"task": "stage1_universe_scan", "region": "EU", "strategy": {"key": "meanrev-v1", "name": "Two-Stage LLM Mean-Reversion (Arena v1)", "rules": {"max_positions": 10, "max_buys_per_run": 2, "avoid_overtrading": true, "max_sells_per_run": 2, "max_gross_leverage": 3.0, "fixed_position_size": 3000.0, "universe_symbols_eu": [], "universe_symbols_us": []}}, "selection_rules": {"horizon": "2-10 trading days", "target": "short-term mean reversion in liquid equities", "constraints": ["Select exactly 5 candidates", "Avoid earnings within 5 trading days (if known)", "Avoid highly binary/event-driven moves (if known)", "Avoid sector concentration: max 1 per sector unless clearly justified (sector may be unknown)"]}, "universe": [{"symbol": "HAS_CFD.UK", "name": "HAYS PLC", "sector": "", "last_price": 47.66, "change_1d_pct": -17.213826645822483, "distance_from_ma200_pct": -26.546854506980832, "distance_from_ma50_pct": -12.888674431016456, "volatility_20d_pct": 117.95597135078918, "market_cap_usd": null, "avg_daily_volume_usd": null, "days_to_next_earnings": null, "earnings_confirmed": null, "news_sentiment_score": null, "news_headlines_last_3": [], "data_quality_note": "snapshot_ok_prices_technicals_only"}, {"symbol": "RS1_CFD.UK", "name": "RS GROUP PLC", "sector": "", "last_price": 725.5, "change_1d_pct": 23.91118701964132, "distance_from_ma200_pct": 26.42587431420933, "distance_from_ma50_pct": 23.74236481466445, "volatility_20d_pct": 102.67597620645313, "market_cap_usd": null, "avg_daily_volume_usd": null, "days_to_next_earnings": null, "earnings_confirmed": null, "news_sentiment_score": null, "news_headlines_last_3": [], "data_quality_note": "snapshot_ok_prices_technicals_only"}, {"symbol": "JUP_CFD.UK", "name": "JUPITER FUND MANAGEMENT", "sector": "", "last_price": 193.6, "change_1d_pct": 22.06809583858764, "distance_from_ma200_pct": 57.65825374753912, "distance_from_ma50_pct": 19.274691586205538, "volatility_20d_pct": 96.15961444303547, "market_cap_usd": null, "avg_daily_volume_usd": null, "days_to_next_earnings": null, "earnings_confirmed": null, "news_sentiment_score": null, "news_headlines_last_3": [], "data_quality_note": "snapshot_ok_prices_technicals_only"}, {"symbol": "BOY_CFD.UK", "name": "BODYCOTE PLC", "sector": "", "last_price": 775.4, "change_1d_pct": 24.163330664531625, "distance_from_ma200_pct": 28.652243313347768, "distance_from_ma50_pct": 18.63612217470385, "volatility_20d_pct": 103.46484337510964, "market_cap_usd": null, "avg_daily_volume_usd": null, "days_to_next_earnings": null, "earnings_confirmed": null, "news_sentiment_score": null, "news_headlines_last_3": [], "data_quality_note": "snapshot_ok_prices_technicals_only"}, {"symbol": "THG_CFD.UK", "name": "THG PLC", "sector": "", "last_price": 34.98, "change_1d_pct": -21.463852716659193, "distance_from_ma200_pct": 2.6990050116409536, "distance_from_ma50_pct": -18.650784422253118, "volatility_20d_pct": 150.5308117928466, "market_cap_usd": null, "avg_daily_volume_usd": null, "days_to_next_earnings": null, "earnings_confirmed": null, "news_sentiment_score": null, "news_headlines_last_3": [], "data_quality_note": "snapshot_ok_prices_technicals_only"}, {"symbol": "CRST_CFD.UK", "name": "CREST NICHOLSON HOLDINGS", "sector": "", "last_price": 118.83, "change_1d_pct": -12.817314746881891, "distance_from_ma200_pct": -28.150055914529826, "distance_from_ma50_pct": -15.848139991077058, "volatility_20d_pct": 236.5351415372937, "market_cap_usd": null, "avg_daily_volume_usd": null, "days_to_next_earnings": null, "earnings_confirmed": null, "news_sentiment_score": null, "news_headlines_last_3": [], "data_quality_note": "snapshot_ok_prices_technicals_only"}, {"symbol": "PAGE_CFD.UK", "name": "PAGEGROUP PLC", "sector": "", "last_price": 152.7, "change_1d_pct": -36.79635761589404, "distance_from_ma200_pct": -40.61156091058385, "distance_from_ma50_pct": -31.72721647345812, "volatility_20d_pct": 193.22753953431183, "market_cap_usd": null, "avg_daily_volume_usd": null, "days_to_next_earnings": null, "earnings_confirmed": null, "news_sentiment_score": null, "news_headlines_last_3": [], "data_quality_note": "snapshot_ok_prices_technicals_only"}, {"symbol": "FGP_CFD.UK", "name": "FIRSTGROUP PLC", "sector": "", "last_price": 193.2, "change_1d_pct": 1.3109596224436304, "distance_from_ma200_pct": -4.044842646206826, "distance_from_ma50_pct": 1.7250076083144883, "volatility_20d_pct": 88.3516119820011, "market_cap_usd": null, "avg_daily_volume_usd": null, "days_to_next_earnings": null, "earnings_confirmed": null, "news_sentiment_score": null, "news_headlines_last_3": [], "data_quality_note": "snapshot_ok_prices_technicals_only"}, {"symbol": "JDW_CFD.UK", "name": "WETHERSPOON (J.D.) PLC", "sector": "", "last_price": 664.5, "change_1d_pct": -2.9927007299270114, "distance_from_ma200_pct": -5.6847404935860375, "distance_from_ma50_pct": -6.433911223030586, "volatility_20d_pct": 119.51576459001842, "market_cap_usd": null, "avg_daily_volume_usd": null, "days_to_next_earnings": null, "earnings_confirmed": null, "news_sentiment_score": null, "news_headlines_last_3": [], "data_quality_note": "snapshot_ok_prices_technicals_only"}, {"symbol": "SHC_CFD.UK", "name": "SHAFTESBURY CAPITAL PLC", "sector": "", "last_price": 140.4, "change_1d_pct": -2.9045643153526868, "distance_from_ma200_pct": 0.26963533347688085, "distance_from_ma50_pct": -0.771073778544229, "volatility_20d_pct": 63.75522821252001, "market_cap_usd": null, "avg_daily_volume_usd": null, "days_to_next_earnings": null, "earnings_confirmed": null, "news_sentiment_score": null, "news_headlines_last_3": [], "data_quality_note": "snapshot_ok_prices_technicals_only"}, {"symbol": "PAG_CFD.UK", "name": "PARAGON BANKING GROUP PLC", "sector": "", "last_price": 852.5, "change_1d_pct": -3.399433427762044, "distance_from_ma200_pct": -1.3404962254783492, "distance_from_ma50_pct": 0.699141440891915, "volatility_20d_pct": 71.52779356208148, "market_cap_usd": null, "avg_daily_volume_usd": null, "days_to_next_earnings": null, "earnings_confirmed": null, "news_sentiment_score": null, "news_headlines_last_3": [], "data_quality_note": "snapshot_ok_prices_technicals_only"}, {"symbol": "SAFE_CFD.UK", "name": "SAFESTORE HOLDINGS PLC", "sector": "", "last_price": 708.0, "change_1d_pct": 0.14144271570013522, "distance_from_ma200_pct": 7.079918522466522, "distance_from_ma50_pct": -2.535991476029087, "volatility_20d_pct": 107.99712610776675, "market_cap_usd": null, "avg_daily_volume_usd": null, "days_to_next_earnings": null, "earnings_confirmed": null, "news_sentiment_score": null, "news_headlines_last_3": [], "data_quality_note": "snapshot_ok_prices_technicals_only"}, {"symbol": "RHIM_CFD.UK", "name": "RHI MAGNESITA NV", "sector": "", "last_price": 2550.0, "change_1d_pct": -6.764168190127973, "distance_from_ma200_pct": -2.35709026809392, "distance_from_ma50_pct": 0.9429816244979738, "volatility_20d_pct": 151.25590362229855, "market_cap_usd": null, "avg_daily_volume_usd": null, "days_to_next_earnings": null, "earnings_confirmed": null, "news_sentiment_score": null, "news_headlines_last_3": [], "data_quality_note": "snapshot_ok_prices_technicals_only"}, {"symbol": "HBR_CFD.UK", "name": "HARBOUR ENERGY PLC", "sector": "", "last_price": 293.4, "change_1d_pct": -2.3172193367958616, "distance_from_ma200_pct": 32.20661812632039, "distance_from_ma50_pct": 13.726219824177853, "volatility_20d_pct": 156.34190016756523, "market_cap_usd": null, "avg_daily_volume_usd": null, "days_to_next_earnings": null, "earnings_confirmed": null, "news_sentiment_score": null, "news_headlines_last_3": [], "data_quality_note": "snapshot_ok_prices_technicals_only"}, {"symbol": "PNN_CFD.UK", "name": "PENNON GROUP PLC", "sector": "", "last_price": 599.27, "change_1d_pct": 16.58722592945663, "distance_from_ma200_pct": 23.75684537859759, "distance_from_ma50_pct": 16.983140154106113, "volatility_20d_pct": 84.07433118596934, "market_cap_usd": null, "avg_daily_volume_usd": null, "days_to_next_earnings": null, "earnings_confirmed": null, "news_sentiment_score": null, "news_headlines_last_3": [], "data_quality_note": "snapshot_ok_prices_technicals_only"}, {"symbol": "CBG_CFD.UK", "name": "CLOSE BROTHERS GROUP PLC", "sector": "", "last_price": 372.74, "change_1d_pct": -26.625984251968504, "distance_from_ma200_pct": -13.365429078084645, "distance_from_ma50_pct": -22.129222788055436, "volatility_20d_pct": 169.0552301316783, "market_cap_usd": null, "avg_daily_volume_usd": null, "days_to_next_earnings": null, "earnings_confirmed": null, "news_sentiment_score": null, "news_headlines_last_3": [], "data_quality_note": "snapshot_ok_prices_technicals_only"}, {"symbol": "RSW_CFD.UK", "name": "RENISHAW PLC", "sector": "", "last_price": 4100.0, "change_1d_pct": 18.155619596541793, "distance_from_ma200_pct": 36.779911314574385, "distance_from_ma50_pct": 14.333028240759926, "volatility_20d_pct": 92.61568245477878, "market_cap_usd": null, "avg_daily_volume_usd": null, "days_to_next_earnings": null, "earnings_confirmed": null, "news_sentiment_score": null, "news_headlines_last_3": [], "data_quality_note": "snapshot_ok_prices_technicals_only"}, {"symbol": "DLN_CFD.UK", "name": "DERWENT LONDON PLC", "sector": "", "last_price": 1953.0, "change_1d_pct": 10.401356698699837, "distance_from_ma200_pct": 5.069478604951705, "distance_from_ma50_pct": 12.150447212111025, "volatility_20d_pct": 115.39088732649292, "market_cap_usd": null, "avg_daily_volume_usd": null, "days_to_next_earnings": null, "earnings_confirmed": null, "news_sentiment_score": null, "news_headlines_last_3": [], "data_quality_note": "snapshot_ok_prices_technicals_only"}, {"symbol": "TPK_CFD.UK", "name": "TRAVIS PERKINS PLC", "sector": "", "last_price": 601.57, "change_1d_pct": -1.21029986533977, "distance_from_ma200_pct": 0.5267641208837714, "distance_from_ma50_pct": -4.983077425595306, "volatility_20d_pct": 108.19399806448348, "market_cap_usd": null, "avg_daily_volume_usd": null, "days_to_next_earnings": null, "earnings_confirmed": null, "news_sentiment_score": null, "news_headlines_last_3": [], "data_quality_note": "snapshot_ok_prices_technicals_only"}, {"symbol": "DOM_CFD.UK", "name": "DOMINO'S PIZZA GROUP PLC", "sector": "", "last_price": 183.13, "change_1d_pct": -0.3102885138813294, "distance_from_ma200_pct": -15.070952368916624, "distance_from_ma50_pct": 1.0777282376278619, "volatility_20d_pct": 87.92203351330001, "market_cap_usd": null, "avg_daily_volume_usd": null, "days_to_next_earnings": null, "earnings_confirmed": null, "news_sentiment_score": null, "news_headlines_last_3": [], "data_quality_note": "snapshot_ok_prices_technicals_only"}, {"symbol": "MAB_CFD.UK", "name": "MITCHELLS & BUTLERS PLC", "sector": "", "last_price": 292.81, "change_1d_pct": 14.37890625, "distance_from_ma200_pct": 11.595067041457764, "distance_from_ma50_pct": 10.935906392690597, "volatility_20d_pct": 118.87119977937589, "market_cap_usd": null, "avg_daily_volume_usd": null, "days_to_next_earnings": null, "earnings_confirmed": null, "news_sentiment_score": null, "news_headlines_last_3": [], "data_quality_note": "snapshot_ok_prices_technicals_only"}, {"symbol": "CNA_CFD.UK", "name": "CENTRICA PLC", "sector": "", "last_price": 219.4, "change_1d_pct": 8.452792881858628, "distance_from_ma200_pct": 26.974463027947415, "distance_from_ma50_pct": 12.919213868167589, "volatility_20d_pct": 108.05347024816936, "market_cap_usd": null, "avg_daily_volume_usd": null, "days_to_next_earnings": null, "earnings_confirmed": null, "news_sentiment_score": null, "news_headlines_last_3": [], "data_quality_note": "snapshot_ok_prices_technicals_only"}, {"symbol": "HUBS_CFD.US", "name": "HubSpot Inc", "sector": "", "last_price": 209.29, "change_1d_pct": -9.76934684199181, "distance_from_ma200_pct": null, "distance_from_ma50_pct": -39.141166091198976, "volatility_20d_pct": 7372.220885228378, "market_cap_usd": null, "avg_daily_volume_usd": null, "days_to_next_earnings": null, "earnings_confirmed": null, "news_sentiment_score": null, "news_headlines_last_3": [], "data_quality_note": "snapshot_ok_prices_technicals_only"}, {"symbol": "OCDO_CFD.UK", "name": "OCADO GROUP PLC", "sector": "", "last_price": 191.8, "change_1d_pct": -27.731725697061027, "distance_from_ma200_pct": -25.425914067168765, "distance_from_ma50_pct": -16.54505218327368, "volatility_20d_pct": 249.00720326714767, "market_cap_usd": null, "avg_daily_volume_usd": null, "days_to_next_earnings": null, "earnings_confirmed": null, "news_sentiment_score": null, "news_headlines_last_3": [], "data_quality_note": "snapshot_ok_prices_technicals_only"}, {"symbol": "ESNT_CFD.UK", "name": "ESSENTRA PLC", "sector": "", "last_price": 90.1, "change_1d_pct": -10.61507936507937, "distance_from_ma200_pct": -10.657490467074904, "distance_from_ma50_pct": -8.545188421272742, "volatility_20d_pct": 126.22890829663649, "market_cap_usd": null, "avg_daily_volume_usd": null, "days_to_next_earnings": null, "earnings_confirmed": null, "news_sentiment_score": null, "news_headlines_last_3": [], "data_quality_note": "snapshot_ok_prices_technicals_only"}, {"symbol": "IPO_CFD.UK", "name": "IP GROUP PLC", "sector": "", "last_price": 57.6, "change_1d_pct": -1.873935264054516, "distance_from_ma200_pct": 10.233643652522883, "distance_from_ma50_pct": -2.027486732888828, "volatility_20d_pct": 89.82123635439407, "market_cap_usd": null, "avg_daily_volume_usd": null, "days_to_next_earnings": null, "earnings_confirmed": null, "news_sentiment_score": null, "news_headlines_last_3": [], "data_quality_note": "snapshot_ok_prices_technicals_only"}, {"symbol": "VXXB_CFD.ETF", "name": "IPATH SERIES B S&P 500 VIX", "sector": "", "last_price": 36.18, "change_1d_pct": 5.4810495626822275, "distance_from_ma200_pct": 4.488258788941213, "distance_from_ma50_pct": 16.413761149079107, "volatility_20d_pct": 169.75949201361448, "market_cap_usd": null, "avg_daily_volume_usd": null, "days_to_next_earnings": null, "earnings_confirmed": null, "news_sentiment_score": null, "news_headlines_last_3": [], "data_quality_note": "snapshot_ok_prices_technicals_only"}, {"symbol": "GROW_CFD.UK", "name": "MOLTEN VENTURES PLC", "sector": "", "last_price": 465.0, "change_1d_pct": 1.572739187418093, "distance_from_ma200_pct": 22.569628774815076, "distance_from_ma50_pct": -4.275686024250158, "volatility_20d_pct": 115.72658030340939, "market_cap_usd": null, "avg_daily_volume_usd": null, "days_to_next_earnings": null, "earnings_confirmed": null, "news_sentiment_score": null, "news_headlines_last_3": [], "data_quality_note": "snapshot_ok_prices_technicals_only"}, {"symbol": "SMG_CFD.US", "name": "", "sector": "", "last_price": 63.15, "change_1d_pct": 4.001976284584985, "distance_from_ma200_pct": 2.9045480877108565, "distance_from_ma50_pct": -3.3721069012054516, "volatility_20d_pct": 87.1544710211987, "market_cap_usd": null, "avg_daily_volume_usd": null, "days_to_next_earnings": null, "earnings_confirmed": null, "news_sentiment_score": null, "news_headlines_last_3": [], "data_quality_note": "snapshot_ok_prices_technicals_only"}, {"symbol": "BME_CFD.UK", "name": "B&M EUROPEAN VALUE RETAIL SA", "sector": "", "last_price": 183.5, "change_1d_pct": -5.534105534105538, "distance_from_ma200_pct": -13.158231617644445, "distance_from_ma50_pct": 5.595587888329945, "volatility_20d_pct": 140.16230415606387, "market_cap_usd": null, "avg_daily_volume_usd": null, "days_to_next_earnings": null, "earnings_confirmed": null, "news_sentiment_score": null, "news_headlines_last_3": [], "data_quality_note": "snapshot_ok_prices_technicals_only"}, {"symbol": "IWG_CFD.UK", "name": "IWG PLC", "sector": "", "last_price": 172.2, "change_1d_pct": -2.7118644067796627, "distance_from_ma200_pct": -19.879269877746097, "distance_from_ma50_pct": -24.25375432175879, "volatility_20d_pct": 8127.791425139084, "market_cap_usd": null, "avg_daily_volume_usd": null, "days_to_next_earnings": null, "earnings_confirmed": null, "news_sentiment_score": null, "news_headlines_last_3": [], "data_quality_note": "snapshot_ok_prices_technicals_only"}, {"symbol": "COTY_CFD.US", "name": "Coty Inc", "sector": "", "last_price": 2.65, "change_1d_pct": -0.7490636704119868, "distance_from_ma200_pct": null, "distance_from_ma50_pct": -12.425644415069403, "volatility_20d_pct": 7661.46272234243, "market_cap_usd": null, "avg_daily_volume_usd": null, "days_to_next_earnings": null, "earnings_confirmed": null, "news_sentiment_score": null, "news_headlines_last_3": [], "data_quality_note": "snapshot_ok_prices_technicals_only"}, {"symbol": "ATG_CFD.UK", "name": "AUCTION TECHNOLOGY GROUP", "sector": "", "last_price": 313.0, "change_1d_pct": 0.3205128205128194, "distance_from_ma200_pct": null, "distance_from_ma50_pct": 0.8343803356850588, "volatility_20d_pct": 2871.9337920464413, "market_cap_usd": null, "avg_daily_volume_usd": null, "days_to_next_earnings": null, "earnings_confirmed": null, "news_sentiment_score": null, "news_headlines_last_3": [], "data_quality_note": "snapshot_ok_prices_technicals_only"}, {"symbol": "CABO_CFD.US", "name": "Cable One Inc", "sector": "", "last_price": 109.96, "change_1d_pct": -4.7222944285590485, "distance_from_ma200_pct": null, "distance_from_ma50_pct": 10.582579924977598, "volatility_20d_pct": 9205.89183144133, "market_cap_usd": null, "avg_daily_volume_usd": null, "days_to_next_earnings": null, "earnings_confirmed": null, "news_sentiment_score": null, "news_headlines_last_3": [], "data_quality_note": "snapshot_ok_prices_technicals_only"}], "output_schema": {"selected_stocks": [{"symbol": "string", "mean_reversion_score": "integer 0-100", "selection_reason": "short, concrete, indicator-based"}], "rejected_common_reasons": ["string"]}}Output JSON
{
"selected_stocks": [
{
"symbol": "PAGE_CFD.UK",
"selection_reason": "-37% 1d change, -41% from MA200, -32% from MA50, vol 193%",
"mean_reversion_score": 100
},
{
"symbol": "OCDO_CFD.UK",
"selection_reason": "-28% 1d change, -25% from MA200, -17% from MA50, vol 249%",
"mean_reversion_score": 98
},
{
"symbol": "CBG_CFD.UK",
"selection_reason": "-27% 1d change, -13% from MA200, -22% from MA50, vol 169%",
"mean_reversion_score": 96
},
{
"symbol": "BOY_CFD.UK",
"selection_reason": "+24% 1d change, +29% from MA200, +19% from MA50, vol 103%",
"mean_reversion_score": 94
},
{
"symbol": "RS1_CFD.UK",
"selection_reason": "+24% 1d change, +26% from MA200, +24% from MA50, vol 103%",
"mean_reversion_score": 92
}
],
"rejected_common_reasons": [
"small 1d price moves",
"close to MA50/MA200",
"low volatility",
"insufficient deviation for short-term reversion"
]
}#2171 • openrouter • x-ai/grok-4.1-fast • 2026-04-08T11:48:27.028826+00:00
System prompt
You are an Arena portfolio manager. You must follow the strategy rules strictly and output ONLY valid JSON. You are NOT allowed to invent prices/fundamentals/news/earnings. If a field is null/empty, treat it as unknown. Avoid overtrading: if changes are marginal, prefer HOLD. Do not churn.
User prompt
{"task": "stage2_portfolio_management", "region": "EU", "strategy": {"key": "meanrev-v1", "name": "Two-Stage LLM Mean-Reversion (Arena v1)", "rules": {"max_positions": 10, "max_buys_per_run": 2, "avoid_overtrading": true, "max_sells_per_run": 2, "max_gross_leverage": 3.0, "fixed_position_size": 3000.0, "universe_symbols_eu": [], "universe_symbols_us": []}}, "portfolio_constraints": {"initial_equity": 10000.0, "max_positions": 10, "fixed_position_size": 3000.0, "max_gross_leverage": 3.0, "overtrading_rules": ["Max 2 SELL actions per run unless risk event forces more", "Max 2 BUY actions per run", "If no clear improvement vs current holdings, output HOLD for everything"]}, "current_portfolio": [{"symbol": "ABF_CFD.UK", "qty": 0.0, "avg_price": 1868.5, "last_price": 1846.0, "unrealized_pnl": 0.0, "opened_at": "2026-03-06T18:02:13.212382+00:00"}, {"symbol": "ADBE_CFD.US", "qty": 0.0, "avg_price": 249.47, "last_price": 249.47, "unrealized_pnl": 0.0, "opened_at": "2026-03-14T18:06:47.909233+00:00"}, {"symbol": "AMCX_CFD.US", "qty": 0.0, "avg_price": 7.07, "last_price": 6.93, "unrealized_pnl": 0.0, "opened_at": "2026-03-16T18:18:58.833148+00:00"}, {"symbol": "AML_CFD.UK", "qty": 0.0, "avg_price": 39.78, "last_price": 39.78, "unrealized_pnl": 0.0, "opened_at": "2026-03-04T10:26:53.527562+00:00"}, {"symbol": "ARCAD_CFD.NL", "qty": 0.0, "avg_price": 29.7, "last_price": 28.06, "unrealized_pnl": 0.0, "opened_at": "2026-02-21T09:33:26.900894+00:00"}, {"symbol": "AUTO_CFD.UK", "qty": 6.2137531068765535, "avg_price": 482.8, "last_price": 482.8, "unrealized_pnl": 0.0, "opened_at": "2026-03-24T18:12:08.252730+00:00"}, {"symbol": "BEI_CFD.DE", "qty": 0.0, "avg_price": 72.36, "last_price": 73.18, "unrealized_pnl": 33.996683250414904, "opened_at": "2026-03-19T10:09:24.325041+00:00"}, {"symbol": "BIG_CFD.FR", "qty": 0.0, "avg_price": 0.275, "last_price": 0.282, "unrealized_pnl": 0.0, "opened_at": "2026-02-20T09:33:44.817899+00:00"}, {"symbol": "BLND_CFD.UK", "qty": 0.0, "avg_price": 364.2, "last_price": 361.4, "unrealized_pnl": 0.0, "opened_at": "2026-03-10T10:41:24.306870+00:00"}, {"symbol": "BTRW_CFD.UK", "qty": 0.0, "avg_price": 259.8, "last_price": 255.0, "unrealized_pnl": 0.0, "opened_at": "2026-03-21T10:00:02.317290+00:00"}, {"symbol": "BXP_CFD.US", "qty": 0.0, "avg_price": 60.835, "last_price": 59.405, "unrealized_pnl": 0.0, "opened_at": "2026-02-22T17:33:48.338981+00:00"}, {"symbol": "BYIT_CFD.UK", "qty": 0.0, "avg_price": 292.6, "last_price": 289.6, "unrealized_pnl": 0.0, "opened_at": "2026-02-25T17:57:28.313088+00:00"}, {"symbol": "CABO_CFD.US", "qty": 0.0, "avg_price": 94.6, "last_price": 96.44, "unrealized_pnl": 58.3509513742073, "opened_at": "2026-02-24T18:14:37.115518+00:00"}, {"symbol": "CAR_CFD.US", "qty": 0.0, "avg_price": 92.465, "last_price": 97.54, "unrealized_pnl": 164.65689720434767, "opened_at": "2026-02-25T17:57:28.313088+00:00"}, {"symbol": "CBG_CFD.UK", "qty": 8.748396127376648, "avg_price": 342.92, "last_price": 342.92, "unrealized_pnl": 0.0, "opened_at": "2026-03-18T17:58:33.497657+00:00"}, {"symbol": "CCL_CFD.UK", "qty": 0.0, "avg_price": 1945.9999999999998, "last_price": 1858.65, "unrealized_pnl": 0.0, "opened_at": "2026-03-06T18:02:13.212382+00:00"}, {"symbol": "COIN_CFD.US", "qty": 0.0, "avg_price": 168.575, "last_price": 171.13, "unrealized_pnl": 0.0, "opened_at": "2026-02-20T17:33:34.647633+00:00"}, {"symbol": "CO_CFD.FR", "qty": 0.0, "avg_price": 0.171, "last_price": 0.2196, "unrealized_pnl": 0.0, "opened_at": "2026-03-06T10:33:43.857578+00:00"}, {"symbol": "CRWD_CFD.US", "qty": 0.0, "avg_price": 350.79999999999995, "last_price": 350.055, "unrealized_pnl": 0.0, "opened_at": "2026-02-23T18:14:12.978497+00:00"}, {"symbol": "DKNG_CFD.US", "qty": 0.0, "avg_price": 25.185000000000002, "last_price": 25.115000000000002, "unrealized_pnl": 0.0, "opened_at": "2026-03-05T18:20:59.102726+00:00"}, {"symbol": "ESNT_CFD.UK", "qty": 0.0, "avg_price": 95.5, "last_price": 90.3, "unrealized_pnl": 0.0, "opened_at": "2026-03-20T10:26:40.341409+00:00"}, {"symbol": "ESTC_CFD.US", "qty": 0.0, "avg_price": 58.085, "last_price": 55.28, "unrealized_pnl": -144.87389171042437, "opened_at": "2026-02-20T17:33:34.647633+00:00"}, {"symbol": "EVT_CFD.DE", "qty": 0.0, "avg_price": 4.502, "last_price": 4.369, "unrealized_pnl": 0.0, "opened_at": "2026-03-11T10:11:17.665074+00:00"}, {"symbol": "EXPO_CFD.US", "qty": 0.0, "avg_price": 66.815, "last_price": 70.025, "unrealized_pnl": 0.0, "opened_at": "2026-02-16T17:30:52.485845+00:00"}, {"symbol": "EZJ_CFD.UK", "qty": 0.0, "avg_price": 405.2, "last_price": 394.1, "unrealized_pnl": 0.0, "opened_at": "2026-03-08T10:05:58.226220+00:00"}, {"symbol": "FBIN_CFD.US", "qty": 0.0, "avg_price": 50.974999999999994, "last_price": 54.35, "unrealized_pnl": 0.0, "opened_at": "2026-02-16T17:30:52.485845+00:00"}, {"symbol": "FICO_CFD.US", "qty": 0.0, "avg_price": 1127.4099999999999, "last_price": 1127.4099999999999, "unrealized_pnl": 0.0, "opened_at": "2026-02-24T18:14:37.115518+00:00"}, {"symbol": "FLO_CFD.US", "qty": 0.0, "avg_price": 9.875, "last_price": 10.055, "unrealized_pnl": 0.0, "opened_at": "2026-02-19T00:47:27.070066+00:00"}, {"symbol": "FRVIA_CFD.FR", "qty": 0.0, "avg_price": 9.138, "last_price": 9.03, "unrealized_pnl": 0.0, "opened_at": "2026-03-19T10:09:24.325041+00:00"}, {"symbol": "FUTR_CFD.UK", "qty": 10.55594651653765, "avg_price": 284.2, "last_price": 297.6, "unrealized_pnl": 141.44968332160488, "opened_at": "2026-02-18T09:36:37.284518+00:00"}, {"symbol": "GO_CFD.US", "qty": 0.0, "avg_price": 5.71, "last_price": 6.05, "unrealized_pnl": 178.63397548161112, "opened_at": "2026-03-05T18:20:59.102726+00:00"}, {"symbol": "HAIN_CFD.US", "qty": 0.0, "avg_price": 0.6, "last_price": 0.6, "unrealized_pnl": 0.0, "opened_at": "2026-02-27T18:23:55.960577+00:00"}, {"symbol": "HAS_CFD.UK", "qty": 92.36453201970444, "avg_price": 32.48, "last_price": 32.48, "unrealized_pnl": 0.0, "opened_at": "2026-04-07T18:08:48.203875+00:00"}, {"symbol": "HIK_CFD.UK", "qty": 0.0, "avg_price": 1236.0, "last_price": 1266.0, "unrealized_pnl": 0.0, "opened_at": "2026-02-26T10:33:24.101894+00:00"}, {"symbol": "HPP_CFD.US", "qty": 0.0, "avg_price": 5.65, "last_price": 5.89, "unrealized_pnl": 0.0, "opened_at": "2026-03-04T18:49:26.891792+00:00"}, {"symbol": "ICG_CFD.UK", "qty": 0.0, "avg_price": 1700.0, "last_price": 1719.0, "unrealized_pnl": 0.0, "opened_at": "2026-02-16T09:30:55.514112+00:00"}, {"symbol": "ITRK_CFD.UK", "qty": 0.0, "avg_price": 3942.0, "last_price": 3760.0, "unrealized_pnl": 0.0, "opened_at": "2026-03-12T18:01:52.554929+00:00"}, {"symbol": "IWG_CFD.UK", "qty": 17.421602787456447, "avg_price": 172.2, "last_price": 172.2, "unrealized_pnl": 0.0, "opened_at": "2026-03-17T10:04:29.123574+00:00"}, {"symbol": "JBLU_CFD.US", "qty": 0.0, "avg_price": 4.22, "last_price": 4.52, "unrealized_pnl": 213.27014218009467, "opened_at": "2026-03-09T18:18:45.954380+00:00"}, {"symbol": "JUN3_CFD.DE", "qty": 0.0, "avg_price": 31.51, "last_price": 30.167, "unrealized_pnl": 0.0, "opened_at": "2026-03-02T10:31:26.559356+00:00"}, {"symbol": "KSS_CFD.US", "qty": 0.0, "avg_price": 12.71, "last_price": 12.36, "unrealized_pnl": -82.61211644374542, "opened_at": "2026-03-24T18:12:08.252730+00:00"}, {"symbol": "LMND_CFD.US", "qty": 0.0, "avg_price": 61.5, "last_price": 59.89, "unrealized_pnl": 0.0, "opened_at": "2026-02-19T17:33:27.020111+00:00"}, {"symbol": "LPX_CFD.US", "qty": 0.0, "avg_price": 86.45, "last_price": 86.15, "unrealized_pnl": 0.0, "opened_at": "2026-02-19T00:47:27.070066+00:00"}, {"symbol": "LRCX_CFD.US", "qty": 0.0, "avg_price": 199.34, "last_price": 216.7, "unrealized_pnl": 0.0, "opened_at": "2026-03-08T18:08:31.007911+00:00"}, {"symbol": "MCG_CFD.UK", "qty": 172.51293847038528, "avg_price": 17.39, "last_price": 20.14, "unrealized_pnl": 474.4105807935595, "opened_at": "2026-03-30T17:49:05.858690+00:00"}, {"symbol": "MPT_CFD.US", "qty": 0.0, "avg_price": 4.8, "last_price": 4.8, "unrealized_pnl": 0.0, "opened_at": "2026-03-15T18:15:23.812047+00:00"}, {"symbol": "NCLH_CFD.US", "qty": 0.0, "avg_price": 19.89, "last_price": 18.42, "unrealized_pnl": 0.0, "opened_at": "2026-03-26T17:55:26.602359+00:00"}, {"symbol": "NET_CFD.US", "qty": 0.0, "avg_price": 176.96, "last_price": 164.32, "unrealized_pnl": 0.0, "opened_at": "2026-02-21T17:32:49.140800+00:00"}, {"symbol": "OCDO_CFD.UK", "qty": 0.0, "avg_price": 204.3, "last_price": 204.3, "unrealized_pnl": 0.0, "opened_at": "2026-02-21T09:33:26.900894+00:00"}, {"symbol": "OKTA_CFD.US", "qty": 0.0, "avg_price": 70.18, "last_price": 80.05, "unrealized_pnl": 0.0, "opened_at": "2026-02-23T18:14:12.978497+00:00"}, {"symbol": "OPTU_CFD.US", "qty": 0.0, "avg_price": 1.24, "last_price": 1.24, "unrealized_pnl": 0.0, "opened_at": "2026-03-22T18:18:31.438015+00:00"}, {"symbol": "PAGE_CFD.UK", "qty": 22.57336343115124, "avg_price": 132.9, "last_price": 132.9, "unrealized_pnl": 0.0, "opened_at": "2026-03-07T10:14:47.113218+00:00"}, {"symbol": "PAYC_CFD.US", "qty": 0.0, "avg_price": 121.22, "last_price": 119.79, "unrealized_pnl": 0.0, "opened_at": "2026-02-19T17:33:27.020111+00:00"}, {"symbol": "PROX_CFD.BE", "qty": 0.0, "avg_price": 6.98, "last_price": 7.68, "unrealized_pnl": 0.0, "opened_at": "2026-02-28T10:51:05.818250+00:00"}, {"symbol": "RMV_CFD.UK", "qty": 0.0, "avg_price": 424.3, "last_price": 417.16, "unrealized_pnl": 0.0, "opened_at": "2026-02-19T09:33:49.074031+00:00"}, {"symbol": "RVTY_CFD.US", "qty": 0.0, "avg_price": 91.28, "last_price": 91.28, "unrealized_pnl": 0.0, "opened_at": "2026-03-08T18:08:31.007911+00:00"}, {"symbol": "SYNT_CFD.UK", "qty": 0.0, "avg_price": 34.9, "last_price": 45.0, "unrealized_pnl": 0.0, "opened_at": "2026-03-03T18:03:34.247734+00:00"}, {"symbol": "THG_CFD.UK", "qty": 103.8781163434903, "avg_price": 28.88, "last_price": 28.88, "unrealized_pnl": 0.0, "opened_at": "2026-02-19T09:33:49.074031+00:00"}, {"symbol": "TRN_CFD.UK", "qty": 0.0, "avg_price": 184.5, "last_price": 184.5, "unrealized_pnl": 0.0, "opened_at": "2026-02-16T09:30:55.514112+00:00"}, {"symbol": "TRST_CFD.UK", "qty": 0.0, "avg_price": 151.8, "last_price": 173.4, "unrealized_pnl": 0.0, "opened_at": "2026-02-18T09:36:37.284518+00:00"}, {"symbol": "UAL_CFD.US", "qty": 0.0, "avg_price": 92.85, "last_price": 91.28, "unrealized_pnl": 0.0, "opened_at": "2026-03-26T17:55:26.602359+00:00"}, {"symbol": "UKW_CFD.UK", "qty": 0.0, "avg_price": 92.35, "last_price": 94.79, "unrealized_pnl": 79.26367081754236, "opened_at": "2026-02-23T10:32:09.961595+00:00"}, {"symbol": "ULTA_CFD.US", "qty": 0.0, "avg_price": 535.2, "last_price": 523.22, "unrealized_pnl": 0.0, "opened_at": "2026-03-15T18:15:23.812047+00:00"}, {"symbol": "UTG_CFD.UK", "qty": 0.0, "avg_price": 505.0, "last_price": 461.2, "unrealized_pnl": 0.0, "opened_at": "2026-03-13T18:17:31.188931+00:00"}, {"symbol": "VTY_CFD.UK", "qty": 0.0, "avg_price": 385.0, "last_price": 376.6, "unrealized_pnl": 0.0, "opened_at": "2026-03-10T18:24:41.570614+00:00"}, {"symbol": "WIZZ_CFD.UK", "qty": 0.0, "avg_price": 894.0, "last_price": 881.2, "unrealized_pnl": 0.0, "opened_at": "2026-03-09T10:19:46.508085+00:00"}, {"symbol": "WPP_CFD.UK", "qty": 0.0, "avg_price": 263.4, "last_price": 240.8, "unrealized_pnl": 0.0, "opened_at": "2026-02-28T10:51:05.818250+00:00"}, {"symbol": "XRX_CFD.US", "qty": 0.0, "avg_price": 1.35, "last_price": 1.3599999999999999, "unrealized_pnl": 0.0, "opened_at": "2026-03-16T18:18:58.833148+00:00"}, {"symbol": "ZS_CFD.US", "qty": 0.0, "avg_price": 159.76, "last_price": 144.45, "unrealized_pnl": 0.0, "opened_at": "2026-02-21T17:32:49.140800+00:00"}], "candidates": [{"symbol": "PAGE_CFD.UK", "mean_reversion_score": 100, "selection_reason": "-37% 1d change, -41% from MA200, -32% from MA50, vol 193%"}, {"symbol": "OCDO_CFD.UK", "mean_reversion_score": 98, "selection_reason": "-28% 1d change, -25% from MA200, -17% from MA50, vol 249%"}, {"symbol": "CBG_CFD.UK", "mean_reversion_score": 96, "selection_reason": "-27% 1d change, -13% from MA200, -22% from MA50, vol 169%"}, {"symbol": "BOY_CFD.UK", "mean_reversion_score": 94, "selection_reason": "+24% 1d change, +29% from MA200, +19% from MA50, vol 103%"}, {"symbol": "RS1_CFD.UK", "mean_reversion_score": 92, "selection_reason": "+24% 1d change, +26% from MA200, +24% from MA50, vol 103%"}], "output_schema": {"actions": {"sell": [{"symbol": "string", "reason": "string"}], "hold": [{"symbol": "string", "reason": "string"}], "buy": [{"symbol": "string", "position_size": "number (currency amount)", "reason": "string"}]}, "portfolio_rationale": "string"}}Output JSON
{
"actions": {
"buy": [
{
"reason": "High meanrev score 98, oversold (-28% 1d change, -25% from MA200, -17% from MA50, vol 249%)",
"symbol": "OCDO_CFD.UK",
"position_size": 3000
}
],
"hold": [
{
"reason": "Flat PnL, recently opened, no strong sell signal, hold to avoid overtrading",
"symbol": "AUTO_CFD.UK"
},
{
"reason": "High meanrev score 96, oversold (-27% 1d, -13% MA200, -22% MA50), strong hold",
"symbol": "CBG_CFD.UK"
},
{
"reason": "Profitable (+141 PnL), no overbought signal, hold",
"symbol": "FUTR_CFD.UK"
},
{
"reason": "Flat PnL, recently opened, no signal, hold to avoid overtrading",
"symbol": "HAS_CFD.UK"
},
{
"reason": "Flat PnL, no signal, hold to avoid overtrading",
"symbol": "IWG_CFD.UK"
},
{
"reason": "Strongly profitable (+474 PnL), no overbought signal, hold",
"symbol": "MCG_CFD.UK"
},
{
"reason": "Top meanrev score 100, oversold (-37% 1d, -41% MA200, -32% MA50), strong hold",
"symbol": "PAGE_CFD.UK"
},
{
"reason": "Flat PnL, no signal, hold to avoid overtrading",
"symbol": "THG_CFD.UK"
}
],
"sell": []
},
"portfolio_rationale": "Mean-reversion strategy: Buy top new oversold candidate OCDO_CFD.UK (score 98). Hold all 8 current positions (no overbought signals in portfolio, PAGE/CBG reinforced as oversold; profitable FUTR/MCG held). Ignore overbought candidates BOY/RS1 as not held and long-only implied. 1 buy < max 2, positions 8->9 <=10, avoids overtrading, leverage safe."
}Selection logs
#1053 • stage1 • 2026-04-08T11:48:27.025873+00:00
{
"selected_stocks": [
{
"symbol": "PAGE_CFD.UK",
"selection_reason": "-37% 1d change, -41% from MA200, -32% from MA50, vol 193%",
"mean_reversion_score": 100
},
{
"symbol": "OCDO_CFD.UK",
"selection_reason": "-28% 1d change, -25% from MA200, -17% from MA50, vol 249%",
"mean_reversion_score": 98
},
{
"symbol": "CBG_CFD.UK",
"selection_reason": "-27% 1d change, -13% from MA200, -22% from MA50, vol 169%",
"mean_reversion_score": 96
},
{
"symbol": "BOY_CFD.UK",
"selection_reason": "+24% 1d change, +29% from MA200, +19% from MA50, vol 103%",
"mean_reversion_score": 94
},
{
"symbol": "RS1_CFD.UK",
"selection_reason": "+24% 1d change, +26% from MA200, +24% from MA50, vol 103%",
"mean_reversion_score": 92
}
],
"rejected_common_reasons": [
"small 1d price moves",
"close to MA50/MA200",
"low volatility",
"insufficient deviation for short-term reversion"
]
}