Arena run #1000

meanrev-v1moonshotaimoonshotai/kimi-k2-thinkingEUsuccess
Arena
Run status
as_of: 2026-04-02T10:01:24.938009+00:00
started_at: 2026-04-02T11:03:03.371141+00:00
finished_at: 2026-04-02T11:05:22.609419+00:00
duration_ms: 139237
Inputs
{
  "as_of": "2026-04-02T10:01:24.938009+00:00",
  "dry_run": false,
  "selected": [
    {
      "symbol": "FUTR_CFD.UK",
      "selection_reason": "Extreme oversold: -30.7% daily, -45% vs MA200, high vol 170%",
      "mean_reversion_score": 95
    },
    {
      "symbol": "CRST_CFD.UK",
      "selection_reason": "Extreme overbought: +24.9% daily, +18% vs MA50, high vol 158%",
      "mean_reversion_score": 92
    },
    {
      "symbol": "MCG_CFD.UK",
      "selection_reason": "Severe oversold: -21.6% daily, -29% vs MA200, very high vol 260%",
      "mean_reversion_score": 90
    },
    {
      "symbol": "CBG_CFD.UK",
      "selection_reason": "Strong oversold: -26.6% daily, -13% vs MA200, high vol 169%",
      "mean_reversion_score": 88
    },
    {
      "symbol": "RSW_CFD.UK",
      "selection_reason": "Strong overbought: +18.2% daily, +37% vs MA200, elevated vol 93%",
      "mean_reversion_score": 85
    }
  ],
  "simulate_only": false,
  "strict_replay": false,
  "universe_symbols": [
    "CRST_CFD.UK",
    "FUTR_CFD.UK",
    "MSLH_CFD.UK",
    "BOY_CFD.UK",
    "SPX_CFD.UK",
    "ESNT_CFD.UK",
    "ICG_CFD.UK",
    "JDW_CFD.UK",
    "MCG_CFD.UK",
    "SHC_CFD.UK",
    "SAFE_CFD.UK",
    "LIO_CFD.UK",
    "RHIM_CFD.UK",
    "UTG_CFD.UK",
    "CBG_CFD.UK",
    "RSW_CFD.UK",
    "DLN_CFD.UK",
    "PZC_CFD.UK",
    "DOM_CFD.UK",
    "FRES_CFD.UK",
    "HWDN_CFD.UK",
    "LRE_CFD.UK",
    "WIZZ_CFD.UK",
    "STJ_CFD.UK",
    "BBY_CFD.UK",
    "AAL_CFD.UK",
    "IEP_CFD.BE",
    "UMI_CFD.BE",
    "MAB_CFD.UK",
    "AGFB_CFD.BE",
    "EL_CFD.US",
    "MRN_CFD.FR",
    "EGL_CFD.PT",
    "IPO_CFD.UK",
    "CMCX_CFD.UK",
    "IDL_CFD.FR",
    "IWG_CFD.UK",
    "BPOST_CFD.BE",
    "AAD_CFD.DE",
    "SRP_CFD.UK",
    "SKB_CFD.DE",
    "BYIT_CFD.UK",
    "VIRI_CFD.FR",
    "APAM_CFD.NL",
    "WEW_CFD.DE",
    "EZJ_CFD.UK",
    "WKP_CFD.UK",
    "CLARI_CFD.FR",
    "PSN_CFD.UK"
  ]
}
Outputs
{
  "actions": {
    "buy": [
      {
        "reason": "Extreme oversold signal (score 95): -30.7% daily, -45% vs MA200, high vol 170%",
        "symbol": "FUTR_CFD.UK",
        "position_size": 3000
      },
      {
        "reason": "Severe oversold signal (score 90): -21.6% daily, -29% vs MA200, very high vol 260%",
        "symbol": "MCG_CFD.UK",
        "position_size": 3000
      }
    ],
    "hold": [
      {
        "reason": "Small unrealized loss (-0.9%); no overbought signal. Holding per mean-reversion thesis.",
        "symbol": "AML_CFD.UK"
      },
      {
        "reason": "Price flat vs entry; no signal. Maintaining position.",
        "symbol": "AUTO_CFD.UK"
      },
      {
        "reason": "Position flat; candidate data shows oversold but holding existing exposure.",
        "symbol": "CBG_CFD.UK"
      },
      {
        "reason": "Price flat vs entry; no signal. Maintaining position.",
        "symbol": "LRE_CFD.UK"
      },
      {
        "reason": "Price flat vs entry; no signal. Maintaining position.",
        "symbol": "MSLH_CFD.UK"
      },
      {
        "reason": "Price flat vs entry; no signal. Maintaining position.",
        "symbol": "OCDO_CFD.UK"
      },
      {
        "reason": "Down -5.8% but no overbought signal; holding for mean reversion.",
        "symbol": "PSN_CFD.UK"
      },
      {
        "reason": "Small unrealized loss (-0.7%); no overbought signal. Holding per thesis.",
        "symbol": "VTY_CFD.UK"
      }
    ],
    "sell": []
  },
  "portfolio_rationale": "Portfolio at 8/10 positions and 2.38x leverage (capacity to 3.0x). Two highest-scoring mean-reversion signals are oversold: FUTR (95) and MCG (90). Adding both positions uses remaining capacity (would reach 9-10 positions, 2.98x leverage). No current holdings show overbought signals requiring exit; small losses on AML/PSN/VTY held per mean-reversion strategy. Action constrained to 2 buys per run to avoid overtrading."
}
Prompts & responses
#1941openroutermoonshotai/kimi-k2-thinking2026-04-02T11:03:03.416989+00:00
System prompt
You are an Arena strategy executor. You must follow the strategy rules strictly and output ONLY valid JSON. You are NOT allowed to invent prices, fundamentals, earnings dates, or sentiment. If a field is null/empty, treat it as unknown. You are a constrained selector (no narrative).
User prompt
{"task": "stage1_universe_scan", "region": "EU", "strategy": {"key": "meanrev-v1", "name": "Two-Stage LLM Mean-Reversion (Arena v1)", "rules": {"max_positions": 10, "max_buys_per_run": 2, "avoid_overtrading": true, "max_sells_per_run": 2, "max_gross_leverage": 3.0, "fixed_position_size": 3000.0, "universe_symbols_eu": [], "universe_symbols_us": []}}, "selection_rules": {"horizon": "2-10 trading days", "target": "short-term mean reversion in liquid equities", "constraints": ["Select exactly 5 candidates", "Avoid earnings within 5 trading days (if known)", "Avoid highly binary/event-driven moves (if known)", "Avoid sector concentration: max 1 per sector unless clearly justified (sector may be unknown)"]}, "universe": [{"symbol": "CRST_CFD.UK", "name": "CREST NICHOLSON HOLDINGS", "sector": "", "last_price": 167.8, "change_1d_pct": 24.85119047619049, "distance_from_ma200_pct": 1.2720261375977815, "distance_from_ma50_pct": 17.82963155418549, "volatility_20d_pct": 158.46878099582966, "market_cap_usd": null, "avg_daily_volume_usd": null, "days_to_next_earnings": null, "earnings_confirmed": null, "news_sentiment_score": null, "news_headlines_last_3": [], "data_quality_note": "snapshot_ok_prices_technicals_only"}, {"symbol": "FUTR_CFD.UK", "name": "FUTURE PLC", "sector": "", "last_price": 368.42, "change_1d_pct": -30.74812030075188, "distance_from_ma200_pct": -45.17933560634293, "distance_from_ma50_pct": -32.26659626501075, "volatility_20d_pct": 170.38116786538166, "market_cap_usd": null, "avg_daily_volume_usd": null, "days_to_next_earnings": null, "earnings_confirmed": null, "news_sentiment_score": null, "news_headlines_last_3": [], "data_quality_note": "snapshot_ok_prices_technicals_only"}, {"symbol": "MSLH_CFD.UK", "name": "MARSHALLS PLC", "sector": "", "last_price": 179.0, "change_1d_pct": 2.052451539338662, "distance_from_ma200_pct": -18.41965657865713, "distance_from_ma50_pct": 4.539832012082234, "volatility_20d_pct": 102.90810964969117, "market_cap_usd": null, "avg_daily_volume_usd": null, "days_to_next_earnings": null, "earnings_confirmed": null, "news_sentiment_score": null, "news_headlines_last_3": [], "data_quality_note": "snapshot_ok_prices_technicals_only"}, {"symbol": "BOY_CFD.UK", "name": "BODYCOTE PLC", "sector": "", "last_price": 775.4, "change_1d_pct": 24.163330664531625, "distance_from_ma200_pct": 28.652243313347768, "distance_from_ma50_pct": 18.63612217470385, "volatility_20d_pct": 103.46484337510964, "market_cap_usd": null, "avg_daily_volume_usd": null, "days_to_next_earnings": null, "earnings_confirmed": null, "news_sentiment_score": null, "news_headlines_last_3": [], "data_quality_note": "snapshot_ok_prices_technicals_only"}, {"symbol": "SPX_CFD.UK", "name": "SPIRAX-SARCO ENGINEERING PLC", "sector": "", "last_price": 7608.71, "change_1d_pct": 10.91413994169097, "distance_from_ma200_pct": 15.905097055024719, "distance_from_ma50_pct": 8.459177525660632, "volatility_20d_pct": 84.71063298478786, "market_cap_usd": null, "avg_daily_volume_usd": null, "days_to_next_earnings": null, "earnings_confirmed": null, "news_sentiment_score": null, "news_headlines_last_3": [], "data_quality_note": "snapshot_ok_prices_technicals_only"}, {"symbol": "ESNT_CFD.UK", "name": "ESSENTRA PLC", "sector": "", "last_price": 108.4, "change_1d_pct": 4.230769230769238, "distance_from_ma200_pct": 7.40452119530135, "distance_from_ma50_pct": 9.771484932749797, "volatility_20d_pct": 98.9832071461764, "market_cap_usd": null, "avg_daily_volume_usd": null, "days_to_next_earnings": null, "earnings_confirmed": null, "news_sentiment_score": null, "news_headlines_last_3": [], "data_quality_note": "snapshot_ok_prices_technicals_only"}, {"symbol": "ICG_CFD.UK", "name": "ICG Plc", "sector": "", "last_price": 1693.0, "change_1d_pct": -15.18545979199647, "distance_from_ma200_pct": -16.18296530905513, "distance_from_ma50_pct": -12.256151916578562, "volatility_20d_pct": 73.10253575454833, "market_cap_usd": null, "avg_daily_volume_usd": null, "days_to_next_earnings": null, "earnings_confirmed": null, "news_sentiment_score": null, "news_headlines_last_3": [], "data_quality_note": "snapshot_ok_prices_technicals_only"}, {"symbol": "JDW_CFD.UK", "name": "WETHERSPOON (J.D.) PLC", "sector": "", "last_price": 748.5, "change_1d_pct": 9.750733137829904, "distance_from_ma200_pct": 6.242631058659898, "distance_from_ma50_pct": 5.290077328071208, "volatility_20d_pct": 98.2373545531062, "market_cap_usd": null, "avg_daily_volume_usd": null, "days_to_next_earnings": null, "earnings_confirmed": null, "news_sentiment_score": null, "news_headlines_last_3": [], "data_quality_note": "snapshot_ok_prices_technicals_only"}, {"symbol": "MCG_CFD.UK", "name": "MOBICO GROUP PLC", "sector": "", "last_price": 19.51, "change_1d_pct": -21.646586345381515, "distance_from_ma200_pct": -29.294942649537013, "distance_from_ma50_pct": -17.188746837807088, "volatility_20d_pct": 260.52106739031456, "market_cap_usd": null, "avg_daily_volume_usd": null, "days_to_next_earnings": null, "earnings_confirmed": null, "news_sentiment_score": null, "news_headlines_last_3": [], "data_quality_note": "snapshot_ok_prices_technicals_only"}, {"symbol": "SHC_CFD.UK", "name": "SHAFTESBURY CAPITAL PLC", "sector": "", "last_price": 140.4, "change_1d_pct": -2.9045643153526868, "distance_from_ma200_pct": 0.26963533347688085, "distance_from_ma50_pct": -0.771073778544229, "volatility_20d_pct": 63.75522821252001, "market_cap_usd": null, "avg_daily_volume_usd": null, "days_to_next_earnings": null, "earnings_confirmed": null, "news_sentiment_score": null, "news_headlines_last_3": [], "data_quality_note": "snapshot_ok_prices_technicals_only"}, {"symbol": "SAFE_CFD.UK", "name": "SAFESTORE HOLDINGS PLC", "sector": "", "last_price": 708.0, "change_1d_pct": 0.14144271570013522, "distance_from_ma200_pct": 7.079918522466522, "distance_from_ma50_pct": -2.535991476029087, "volatility_20d_pct": 107.99712610776675, "market_cap_usd": null, "avg_daily_volume_usd": null, "days_to_next_earnings": null, "earnings_confirmed": null, "news_sentiment_score": null, "news_headlines_last_3": [], "data_quality_note": "snapshot_ok_prices_technicals_only"}, {"symbol": "LIO_CFD.UK", "name": "LIONTRUST ASSET MANAGEMENT", "sector": "", "last_price": 257.5, "change_1d_pct": 3.8306451612903247, "distance_from_ma200_pct": -20.8874735683513, "distance_from_ma50_pct": 0.10846703807232405, "volatility_20d_pct": 141.21527367452939, "market_cap_usd": null, "avg_daily_volume_usd": null, "days_to_next_earnings": null, "earnings_confirmed": null, "news_sentiment_score": null, "news_headlines_last_3": [], "data_quality_note": "snapshot_ok_prices_technicals_only"}, {"symbol": "RHIM_CFD.UK", "name": "RHI MAGNESITA NV", "sector": "", "last_price": 2550.0, "change_1d_pct": -6.764168190127973, "distance_from_ma200_pct": -2.35709026809392, "distance_from_ma50_pct": 0.9429816244979738, "volatility_20d_pct": 151.25590362229855, "market_cap_usd": null, "avg_daily_volume_usd": null, "days_to_next_earnings": null, "earnings_confirmed": null, "news_sentiment_score": null, "news_headlines_last_3": [], "data_quality_note": "snapshot_ok_prices_technicals_only"}, {"symbol": "UTG_CFD.UK", "name": "UNITE GROUP PLC/THE", "sector": "", "last_price": 505.0, "change_1d_pct": -8.265213442325159, "distance_from_ma200_pct": -32.12786599325862, "distance_from_ma50_pct": -13.548388422126267, "volatility_20d_pct": 98.87339279796446, "market_cap_usd": null, "avg_daily_volume_usd": null, "days_to_next_earnings": null, "earnings_confirmed": null, "news_sentiment_score": null, "news_headlines_last_3": [], "data_quality_note": "snapshot_ok_prices_technicals_only"}, {"symbol": "CBG_CFD.UK", "name": "CLOSE BROTHERS GROUP PLC", "sector": "", "last_price": 372.74, "change_1d_pct": -26.625984251968504, "distance_from_ma200_pct": -13.365429078084645, "distance_from_ma50_pct": -22.129222788055436, "volatility_20d_pct": 169.0552301316783, "market_cap_usd": null, "avg_daily_volume_usd": null, "days_to_next_earnings": null, "earnings_confirmed": null, "news_sentiment_score": null, "news_headlines_last_3": [], "data_quality_note": "snapshot_ok_prices_technicals_only"}, {"symbol": "RSW_CFD.UK", "name": "RENISHAW PLC", "sector": "", "last_price": 4100.0, "change_1d_pct": 18.155619596541793, "distance_from_ma200_pct": 36.779911314574385, "distance_from_ma50_pct": 14.333028240759926, "volatility_20d_pct": 92.61568245477878, "market_cap_usd": null, "avg_daily_volume_usd": null, "days_to_next_earnings": null, "earnings_confirmed": null, "news_sentiment_score": null, "news_headlines_last_3": [], "data_quality_note": "snapshot_ok_prices_technicals_only"}, {"symbol": "DLN_CFD.UK", "name": "DERWENT LONDON PLC", "sector": "", "last_price": 1953.0, "change_1d_pct": 10.401356698699837, "distance_from_ma200_pct": 5.069478604951705, "distance_from_ma50_pct": 12.150447212111025, "volatility_20d_pct": 115.39088732649292, "market_cap_usd": null, "avg_daily_volume_usd": null, "days_to_next_earnings": null, "earnings_confirmed": null, "news_sentiment_score": null, "news_headlines_last_3": [], "data_quality_note": "snapshot_ok_prices_technicals_only"}, {"symbol": "PZC_CFD.UK", "name": "PZ CUSSONS PLC", "sector": "", "last_price": 77.7, "change_1d_pct": -13.858093126385807, "distance_from_ma200_pct": 2.9808107121248817, "distance_from_ma50_pct": 2.5905093876257723, "volatility_20d_pct": 92.73478468401771, "market_cap_usd": null, "avg_daily_volume_usd": null, "days_to_next_earnings": null, "earnings_confirmed": null, "news_sentiment_score": null, "news_headlines_last_3": [], "data_quality_note": "snapshot_ok_prices_technicals_only"}, {"symbol": "DOM_CFD.UK", "name": "DOMINO'S PIZZA GROUP PLC", "sector": "", "last_price": 183.13, "change_1d_pct": -0.3102885138813294, "distance_from_ma200_pct": -15.070952368916624, "distance_from_ma50_pct": 1.0777282376278619, "volatility_20d_pct": 87.92203351330001, "market_cap_usd": null, "avg_daily_volume_usd": null, "days_to_next_earnings": null, "earnings_confirmed": null, "news_sentiment_score": null, "news_headlines_last_3": [], "data_quality_note": "snapshot_ok_prices_technicals_only"}, {"symbol": "FRES_CFD.UK", "name": "FRESNILLO PLC", "sector": "", "last_price": 3494.0, "change_1d_pct": 9.874213836477995, "distance_from_ma200_pct": 32.60847028444005, "distance_from_ma50_pct": -5.295273561947766, "volatility_20d_pct": 123.12648079806692, "market_cap_usd": null, "avg_daily_volume_usd": null, "days_to_next_earnings": null, "earnings_confirmed": null, "news_sentiment_score": null, "news_headlines_last_3": [], "data_quality_note": "snapshot_ok_prices_technicals_only"}, {"symbol": "HWDN_CFD.UK", "name": "HOWDEN JOINERY GROUP PLC", "sector": "", "last_price": 843.0, "change_1d_pct": -2.686229466563539, "distance_from_ma200_pct": 2.9144756901175572, "distance_from_ma50_pct": 0.6796292983215046, "volatility_20d_pct": 44.16384759940265, "market_cap_usd": null, "avg_daily_volume_usd": null, "days_to_next_earnings": null, "earnings_confirmed": null, "news_sentiment_score": null, "news_headlines_last_3": [], "data_quality_note": "snapshot_ok_prices_technicals_only"}, {"symbol": "LRE_CFD.UK", "name": "LANCASHIRE HOLDINGS LTD", "sector": "", "last_price": 611.0, "change_1d_pct": -7.424242424242422, "distance_from_ma200_pct": 0.4068944205071867, "distance_from_ma50_pct": -6.396619125545266, "volatility_20d_pct": 86.32350801127552, "market_cap_usd": null, "avg_daily_volume_usd": null, "days_to_next_earnings": null, "earnings_confirmed": null, "news_sentiment_score": null, "news_headlines_last_3": [], "data_quality_note": "snapshot_ok_prices_technicals_only"}, {"symbol": "WIZZ_CFD.UK", "name": "WIZZ AIR HOLDINGS PLC", "sector": "", "last_price": 906.21, "change_1d_pct": 2.165727170236753, "distance_from_ma200_pct": -22.830319651563403, "distance_from_ma50_pct": -21.16928444038726, "volatility_20d_pct": 194.9261168436724, "market_cap_usd": null, "avg_daily_volume_usd": null, "days_to_next_earnings": null, "earnings_confirmed": null, "news_sentiment_score": null, "news_headlines_last_3": [], "data_quality_note": "snapshot_ok_prices_technicals_only"}, {"symbol": "STJ_CFD.UK", "name": "ST JAMES'S PLACE PLC", "sector": "", "last_price": 1280.0, "change_1d_pct": -14.836992681304062, "distance_from_ma200_pct": 4.633703562254432, "distance_from_ma50_pct": -6.669417974449299, "volatility_20d_pct": 125.87476157380789, "market_cap_usd": null, "avg_daily_volume_usd": null, "days_to_next_earnings": null, "earnings_confirmed": null, "news_sentiment_score": null, "news_headlines_last_3": [], "data_quality_note": "snapshot_ok_prices_technicals_only"}, {"symbol": "BBY_CFD.UK", "name": "BALFOUR BEATTY PLC", "sector": "", "last_price": 722.5, "change_1d_pct": -1.0951403148528382, "distance_from_ma200_pct": null, "distance_from_ma50_pct": -1.628407265201648, "volatility_20d_pct": 2239.4661443465884, "market_cap_usd": null, "avg_daily_volume_usd": null, "days_to_next_earnings": null, "earnings_confirmed": null, "news_sentiment_score": null, "news_headlines_last_3": [], "data_quality_note": "snapshot_ok_prices_technicals_only"}, {"symbol": "AAL_CFD.UK", "name": "ANGLO AMERICAN PLC", "sector": "", "last_price": 3586.0, "change_1d_pct": 0.055803571428580945, "distance_from_ma200_pct": null, "distance_from_ma50_pct": 11.748904636364198, "volatility_20d_pct": 4209.946938281094, "market_cap_usd": null, "avg_daily_volume_usd": null, "days_to_next_earnings": null, "earnings_confirmed": null, "news_sentiment_score": null, "news_headlines_last_3": [], "data_quality_note": "snapshot_ok_prices_technicals_only"}, {"symbol": "IEP_CFD.BE", "name": "IEP Invest NV", "sector": "", "last_price": 5.4, "change_1d_pct": 0.0, "distance_from_ma200_pct": 0.9951765451794659, "distance_from_ma50_pct": 0.5657756042326989, "volatility_20d_pct": 138.39532879660115, "market_cap_usd": null, "avg_daily_volume_usd": null, "days_to_next_earnings": null, "earnings_confirmed": null, "news_sentiment_score": null, "news_headlines_last_3": [], "data_quality_note": "snapshot_ok_prices_technicals_only"}, {"symbol": "UMI_CFD.BE", "name": "Umicore", "sector": "", "last_price": 16.7, "change_1d_pct": 4.1147132169575995, "distance_from_ma200_pct": 3.49407140099367, "distance_from_ma50_pct": -7.589911695797058, "volatility_20d_pct": 84.62085258767603, "market_cap_usd": null, "avg_daily_volume_usd": null, "days_to_next_earnings": null, "earnings_confirmed": null, "news_sentiment_score": null, "news_headlines_last_3": [], "data_quality_note": "snapshot_ok_prices_technicals_only"}, {"symbol": "MAB_CFD.UK", "name": "MITCHELLS & BUTLERS PLC", "sector": "", "last_price": 292.81, "change_1d_pct": 14.37890625, "distance_from_ma200_pct": 11.595067041457764, "distance_from_ma50_pct": 10.935906392690597, "volatility_20d_pct": 118.87119977937589, "market_cap_usd": null, "avg_daily_volume_usd": null, "days_to_next_earnings": null, "earnings_confirmed": null, "news_sentiment_score": null, "news_headlines_last_3": [], "data_quality_note": "snapshot_ok_prices_technicals_only"}, {"symbol": "AGFB_CFD.BE", "name": "Agfa-Gevaert", "sector": "", "last_price": 0.49, "change_1d_pct": 4.255319148936176, "distance_from_ma200_pct": -34.941646640200744, "distance_from_ma50_pct": 1.491300745650359, "volatility_20d_pct": 106.27247086566986, "market_cap_usd": null, "avg_daily_volume_usd": null, "days_to_next_earnings": null, "earnings_confirmed": null, "news_sentiment_score": null, "news_headlines_last_3": [], "data_quality_note": "snapshot_ok_prices_technicals_only"}, {"symbol": "EL_CFD.US", "name": "Estee Lauder Companies Inc", "sector": "", "last_price": 72.69, "change_1d_pct": 6.1167883211678875, "distance_from_ma200_pct": -23.440450699715733, "distance_from_ma50_pct": -26.7152207314565, "volatility_20d_pct": 133.36185414921857, "market_cap_usd": null, "avg_daily_volume_usd": null, "days_to_next_earnings": null, "earnings_confirmed": null, "news_sentiment_score": null, "news_headlines_last_3": [], "data_quality_note": "snapshot_ok_prices_technicals_only"}, {"symbol": "MRN_CFD.FR", "name": "Mersen", "sector": "", "last_price": 22.85, "change_1d_pct": 4.10022779043282, "distance_from_ma200_pct": -4.206528209814953, "distance_from_ma50_pct": -9.61620310524709, "volatility_20d_pct": 88.76493092868468, "market_cap_usd": null, "avg_daily_volume_usd": null, "days_to_next_earnings": null, "earnings_confirmed": null, "news_sentiment_score": null, "news_headlines_last_3": [], "data_quality_note": "snapshot_ok_prices_technicals_only"}, {"symbol": "EGL_CFD.PT", "name": "Mota-Engil SGPS SA", "sector": "", "last_price": 4.72, "change_1d_pct": 7.762557077625565, "distance_from_ma200_pct": -3.2219702530581484, "distance_from_ma50_pct": 0.8090352233603548, "volatility_20d_pct": 99.94399510320801, "market_cap_usd": null, "avg_daily_volume_usd": null, "days_to_next_earnings": null, "earnings_confirmed": null, "news_sentiment_score": null, "news_headlines_last_3": [], "data_quality_note": "snapshot_ok_prices_technicals_only"}, {"symbol": "IPO_CFD.UK", "name": "IP GROUP PLC", "sector": "", "last_price": 57.6, "change_1d_pct": -1.873935264054516, "distance_from_ma200_pct": 10.233643652522883, "distance_from_ma50_pct": -2.027486732888828, "volatility_20d_pct": 89.82123635439407, "market_cap_usd": null, "avg_daily_volume_usd": null, "days_to_next_earnings": null, "earnings_confirmed": null, "news_sentiment_score": null, "news_headlines_last_3": [], "data_quality_note": "snapshot_ok_prices_technicals_only"}, {"symbol": "CMCX_CFD.UK", "name": "CMC MARKETS PLC", "sector": "", "last_price": 336.5, "change_1d_pct": 6.487341772151889, "distance_from_ma200_pct": 33.727269096422944, "distance_from_ma50_pct": 13.399699398122245, "volatility_20d_pct": 207.2492443353413, "market_cap_usd": null, "avg_daily_volume_usd": null, "days_to_next_earnings": null, "earnings_confirmed": null, "news_sentiment_score": null, "news_headlines_last_3": [], "data_quality_note": "snapshot_ok_prices_technicals_only"}, {"symbol": "IDL_CFD.FR", "name": "", "sector": "", "last_price": 325.0, "change_1d_pct": 2.0408163265306145, "distance_from_ma200_pct": -18.920591076375317, "distance_from_ma50_pct": -13.377134474029429, "volatility_20d_pct": 98.79615587582798, "market_cap_usd": null, "avg_daily_volume_usd": null, "days_to_next_earnings": null, "earnings_confirmed": null, "news_sentiment_score": null, "news_headlines_last_3": [], "data_quality_note": "snapshot_ok_prices_technicals_only"}, {"symbol": "IWG_CFD.UK", "name": "IWG PLC", "sector": "", "last_price": 177.0, "change_1d_pct": -26.786896095301127, "distance_from_ma200_pct": -17.645939421376646, "distance_from_ma50_pct": -22.14236071400294, "volatility_20d_pct": 154.02502086657427, "market_cap_usd": null, "avg_daily_volume_usd": null, "days_to_next_earnings": null, "earnings_confirmed": null, "news_sentiment_score": null, "news_headlines_last_3": [], "data_quality_note": "snapshot_ok_prices_technicals_only"}, {"symbol": "BPOST_CFD.BE", "name": "Bpost", "sector": "", "last_price": 1.8559999999999999, "change_1d_pct": 0.5417118093174356, "distance_from_ma200_pct": -11.943598356533547, "distance_from_ma50_pct": -9.673149175572815, "volatility_20d_pct": 98.05183037189238, "market_cap_usd": null, "avg_daily_volume_usd": null, "days_to_next_earnings": null, "earnings_confirmed": null, "news_sentiment_score": null, "news_headlines_last_3": [], "data_quality_note": "snapshot_ok_prices_technicals_only"}, {"symbol": "AAD_CFD.DE", "name": "AMADEUS FIRE AG", "sector": "", "last_price": 23.689, "change_1d_pct": 5.991051454138696, "distance_from_ma200_pct": -52.327747790461856, "distance_from_ma50_pct": -20.72182661409344, "volatility_20d_pct": 72.98703710542877, "market_cap_usd": null, "avg_daily_volume_usd": null, "days_to_next_earnings": null, "earnings_confirmed": null, "news_sentiment_score": null, "news_headlines_last_3": [], "data_quality_note": "snapshot_ok_prices_technicals_only"}, {"symbol": "SRP_CFD.UK", "name": "SERCO GROUP PLC", "sector": "", "last_price": 300.0, "change_1d_pct": -0.3984063745019917, "distance_from_ma200_pct": 34.11120814305375, "distance_from_ma50_pct": 6.89280433272168, "volatility_20d_pct": 77.89780733903845, "market_cap_usd": null, "avg_daily_volume_usd": null, "days_to_next_earnings": null, "earnings_confirmed": null, "news_sentiment_score": null, "news_headlines_last_3": [], "data_quality_note": "snapshot_ok_prices_technicals_only"}, {"symbol": "SKB_CFD.DE", "name": "Koenig & Bauer AG", "sector": "", "last_price": 8.451, "change_1d_pct": 2.7602140077821025, "distance_from_ma200_pct": -28.569556989254576, "distance_from_ma50_pct": -6.41859270217836, "volatility_20d_pct": 100.05173444339124, "market_cap_usd": null, "avg_daily_volume_usd": null, "days_to_next_earnings": null, "earnings_confirmed": null, "news_sentiment_score": null, "news_headlines_last_3": [], "data_quality_note": "snapshot_ok_prices_technicals_only"}, {"symbol": "BYIT_CFD.UK", "name": "BYTES TECHNOLOGY GROUP PLC", "sector": "", "last_price": 300.4, "change_1d_pct": -12.674418604651173, "distance_from_ma200_pct": -28.03446775272175, "distance_from_ma50_pct": -14.34777426817815, "volatility_20d_pct": 87.82535981934274, "market_cap_usd": null, "avg_daily_volume_usd": null, "days_to_next_earnings": null, "earnings_confirmed": null, "news_sentiment_score": null, "news_headlines_last_3": [], "data_quality_note": "snapshot_ok_prices_technicals_only"}, {"symbol": "VIRI_CFD.FR", "name": "VIRIDIEN", "sector": "", "last_price": 127.1, "change_1d_pct": 32.258064516129025, "distance_from_ma200_pct": 86.88026988392838, "distance_from_ma50_pct": 29.097132641971314, "volatility_20d_pct": 297.97668648307325, "market_cap_usd": null, "avg_daily_volume_usd": null, "days_to_next_earnings": null, "earnings_confirmed": null, "news_sentiment_score": null, "news_headlines_last_3": [], "data_quality_note": "snapshot_ok_prices_technicals_only"}, {"symbol": "APAM_CFD.NL", "name": "Aperam SA", "sector": "", "last_price": 33.98, "change_1d_pct": 2.5347012673506253, "distance_from_ma200_pct": 13.229433054763806, "distance_from_ma50_pct": -9.772311836237025, "volatility_20d_pct": 107.27141164278213, "market_cap_usd": null, "avg_daily_volume_usd": null, "days_to_next_earnings": null, "earnings_confirmed": null, "news_sentiment_score": null, "news_headlines_last_3": [], "data_quality_note": "snapshot_ok_prices_technicals_only"}, {"symbol": "WEW_CFD.DE", "name": "Westwing Group AG", "sector": "", "last_price": 14.0, "change_1d_pct": 3.7651941891491125, "distance_from_ma200_pct": 11.846814602720102, "distance_from_ma50_pct": -12.710368013088457, "volatility_20d_pct": 101.88568059283736, "market_cap_usd": null, "avg_daily_volume_usd": null, "days_to_next_earnings": null, "earnings_confirmed": null, "news_sentiment_score": null, "news_headlines_last_3": [], "data_quality_note": "snapshot_ok_prices_technicals_only"}, {"symbol": "EZJ_CFD.UK", "name": "EASYJET PLC", "sector": "", "last_price": 362.85, "change_1d_pct": -0.3159340659340648, "distance_from_ma200_pct": -24.167583266752256, "distance_from_ma50_pct": -16.124990753753977, "volatility_20d_pct": 106.20041289549162, "market_cap_usd": null, "avg_daily_volume_usd": null, "days_to_next_earnings": null, "earnings_confirmed": null, "news_sentiment_score": null, "news_headlines_last_3": [], "data_quality_note": "snapshot_ok_prices_technicals_only"}, {"symbol": "WKP_CFD.UK", "name": "WORKSPACE GROUP PLC", "sector": "", "last_price": 423.0, "change_1d_pct": 3.6764705882353033, "distance_from_ma200_pct": 1.8640028868691871, "distance_from_ma50_pct": 5.808194506978848, "volatility_20d_pct": 70.2233148398582, "market_cap_usd": null, "avg_daily_volume_usd": null, "days_to_next_earnings": null, "earnings_confirmed": null, "news_sentiment_score": null, "news_headlines_last_3": [], "data_quality_note": "snapshot_ok_prices_technicals_only"}, {"symbol": "CLARI_CFD.FR", "name": "Clariane SE", "sector": "", "last_price": 3.7119999999999997, "change_1d_pct": 10.279263220439683, "distance_from_ma200_pct": -10.1218270547344, "distance_from_ma50_pct": -2.49693989587767, "volatility_20d_pct": 77.3621836086101, "market_cap_usd": null, "avg_daily_volume_usd": null, "days_to_next_earnings": null, "earnings_confirmed": null, "news_sentiment_score": null, "news_headlines_last_3": [], "data_quality_note": "snapshot_ok_prices_technicals_only"}, {"symbol": "PSN_CFD.UK", "name": "PERSIMMON PLC", "sector": "", "last_price": 1094.5, "change_1d_pct": -14.990291262135925, "distance_from_ma200_pct": -12.659800346448124, "distance_from_ma50_pct": -19.09340856328078, "volatility_20d_pct": 125.96745311555702, "market_cap_usd": null, "avg_daily_volume_usd": null, "days_to_next_earnings": null, "earnings_confirmed": null, "news_sentiment_score": null, "news_headlines_last_3": [], "data_quality_note": "snapshot_ok_prices_technicals_only"}], "output_schema": {"selected_stocks": [{"symbol": "string", "mean_reversion_score": "integer 0-100", "selection_reason": "short, concrete, indicator-based"}], "rejected_common_reasons": ["string"]}}
Output JSON
{
  "selected_stocks": [
    {
      "symbol": "FUTR_CFD.UK",
      "selection_reason": "Extreme oversold: -30.7% daily, -45% vs MA200, high vol 170%",
      "mean_reversion_score": 95
    },
    {
      "symbol": "CRST_CFD.UK",
      "selection_reason": "Extreme overbought: +24.9% daily, +18% vs MA50, high vol 158%",
      "mean_reversion_score": 92
    },
    {
      "symbol": "MCG_CFD.UK",
      "selection_reason": "Severe oversold: -21.6% daily, -29% vs MA200, very high vol 260%",
      "mean_reversion_score": 90
    },
    {
      "symbol": "CBG_CFD.UK",
      "selection_reason": "Strong oversold: -26.6% daily, -13% vs MA200, high vol 169%",
      "mean_reversion_score": 88
    },
    {
      "symbol": "RSW_CFD.UK",
      "selection_reason": "Strong overbought: +18.2% daily, +37% vs MA200, elevated vol 93%",
      "mean_reversion_score": 85
    }
  ],
  "rejected_common_reasons": [
    "Insufficient deviation from moving averages (<10% daily move)",
    "Mixed technical signals (not clearly overbought/oversold)",
    "Data quality issues: extreme volatility readings (>1000%)",
    "Sector concentration risk cannot be assessed (sector data missing)",
    "Earnings proximity unknown (cannot verify 5-day buffer)"
  ]
}
#1942openroutermoonshotai/kimi-k2-thinking2026-04-02T11:03:34.385791+00:00
System prompt
You are an Arena portfolio manager. You must follow the strategy rules strictly and output ONLY valid JSON. You are NOT allowed to invent prices/fundamentals/news/earnings. If a field is null/empty, treat it as unknown. Avoid overtrading: if changes are marginal, prefer HOLD. Do not churn.
User prompt
{"task": "stage2_portfolio_management", "region": "EU", "strategy": {"key": "meanrev-v1", "name": "Two-Stage LLM Mean-Reversion (Arena v1)", "rules": {"max_positions": 10, "max_buys_per_run": 2, "avoid_overtrading": true, "max_sells_per_run": 2, "max_gross_leverage": 3.0, "fixed_position_size": 3000.0, "universe_symbols_eu": [], "universe_symbols_us": []}}, "portfolio_constraints": {"initial_equity": 10000.0, "max_positions": 10, "fixed_position_size": 3000.0, "max_gross_leverage": 3.0, "overtrading_rules": ["Max 2 SELL actions per run unless risk event forces more", "Max 2 BUY actions per run", "If no clear improvement vs current holdings, output HOLD for everything"]}, "current_portfolio": [{"symbol": "AML_CFD.UK", "qty": 82.14676889375684, "avg_price": 36.52, "last_price": 36.2, "unrealized_pnl": -26.286966046002213, "opened_at": "2026-03-09T10:19:46.508085+00:00"}, {"symbol": "AUTO_CFD.UK", "qty": 6.2137531068765535, "avg_price": 482.8, "last_price": 482.8, "unrealized_pnl": 0.0, "opened_at": "2026-03-19T18:04:14.272849+00:00"}, {"symbol": "BTRW_CFD.UK", "qty": 0.0, "avg_price": 250.8, "last_price": 263.2, "unrealized_pnl": 0.0, "opened_at": "2026-03-23T18:04:09.108429+00:00"}, {"symbol": "BYIT_CFD.UK", "qty": 0.0, "avg_price": 292.6, "last_price": 292.6, "unrealized_pnl": 0.0, "opened_at": "2026-03-01T10:30:13.622938+00:00"}, {"symbol": "CBG_CFD.UK", "qty": 8.748396127376648, "avg_price": 342.92, "last_price": 342.92, "unrealized_pnl": 0.0, "opened_at": "2026-03-18T17:58:33.497657+00:00"}, {"symbol": "CRST_CFD.UK", "qty": 0.0, "avg_price": 118.83, "last_price": 118.83, "unrealized_pnl": 0.0, "opened_at": "2026-03-23T10:03:51.599067+00:00"}, {"symbol": "FUTR_CFD.UK", "qty": 0.0, "avg_price": 414.2, "last_price": 419.8, "unrealized_pnl": 0.0, "opened_at": "2026-03-12T10:21:39.078796+00:00"}, {"symbol": "ICG_CFD.UK", "qty": 0.0, "avg_price": 1700.0, "last_price": 1693.0, "unrealized_pnl": 0.0, "opened_at": "2026-02-16T09:30:55.514112+00:00"}, {"symbol": "IWG_CFD.UK", "qty": 0.0, "avg_price": 177.0, "last_price": 172.2, "unrealized_pnl": 0.0, "opened_at": "2026-03-19T18:04:14.272849+00:00"}, {"symbol": "LRE_CFD.UK", "qty": 5.208333333333333, "avg_price": 576.0, "last_price": 576.0, "unrealized_pnl": 0.0, "opened_at": "2026-03-20T10:26:40.341409+00:00"}, {"symbol": "LSS_CFD.FR", "qty": 0.0, "avg_price": 17.72, "last_price": 16.0, "unrealized_pnl": -291.19638826185087, "opened_at": "2026-02-16T09:30:55.514112+00:00"}, {"symbol": "MSLH_CFD.UK", "qty": 21.30681818181818, "avg_price": 140.8, "last_price": 140.8, "unrealized_pnl": 0.0, "opened_at": "2026-03-26T17:55:26.602359+00:00"}, {"symbol": "OCDO_CFD.UK", "qty": 14.684287812041115, "avg_price": 204.3, "last_price": 204.3, "unrealized_pnl": 0.0, "opened_at": "2026-03-12T18:01:52.554929+00:00"}, {"symbol": "PAGE_CFD.UK", "qty": 0.0, "avg_price": 132.9, "last_price": 132.9, "unrealized_pnl": 0.0, "opened_at": "2026-02-28T10:51:05.818250+00:00"}, {"symbol": "PSN_CFD.UK", "qty": 2.6455026455026456, "avg_price": 1134.0, "last_price": 1068.0, "unrealized_pnl": -174.6031746031746, "opened_at": "2026-03-12T18:01:52.554929+00:00"}, {"symbol": "SYNT_CFD.UK", "qty": 0.0, "avg_price": 34.9, "last_price": 45.0, "unrealized_pnl": 0.0, "opened_at": "2026-03-23T10:03:51.599067+00:00"}, {"symbol": "TRST_CFD.UK", "qty": 0.0, "avg_price": 151.8, "last_price": 173.4, "unrealized_pnl": 0.0, "opened_at": "2026-03-14T10:03:26.036362+00:00"}, {"symbol": "UTG_CFD.UK", "qty": 0.0, "avg_price": 505.0, "last_price": 461.2, "unrealized_pnl": 0.0, "opened_at": "2026-03-26T17:55:26.602359+00:00"}, {"symbol": "VTY_CFD.UK", "qty": 8.85608856088561, "avg_price": 338.75, "last_price": 336.5, "unrealized_pnl": -19.926199261992622, "opened_at": "2026-03-12T10:21:39.078796+00:00"}, {"symbol": "WIZZ_CFD.UK", "qty": 0.0, "avg_price": 872.0, "last_price": 976.5, "unrealized_pnl": 0.0, "opened_at": "2026-03-09T10:19:46.508085+00:00"}, {"symbol": "WPP_CFD.UK", "qty": 0.0, "avg_price": 253.97436099095557, "last_price": 262.8, "unrealized_pnl": 0.0, "opened_at": "2026-02-28T10:51:05.818250+00:00"}], "candidates": [{"symbol": "FUTR_CFD.UK", "mean_reversion_score": 95, "selection_reason": "Extreme oversold: -30.7% daily, -45% vs MA200, high vol 170%"}, {"symbol": "CRST_CFD.UK", "mean_reversion_score": 92, "selection_reason": "Extreme overbought: +24.9% daily, +18% vs MA50, high vol 158%"}, {"symbol": "MCG_CFD.UK", "mean_reversion_score": 90, "selection_reason": "Severe oversold: -21.6% daily, -29% vs MA200, very high vol 260%"}, {"symbol": "CBG_CFD.UK", "mean_reversion_score": 88, "selection_reason": "Strong oversold: -26.6% daily, -13% vs MA200, high vol 169%"}, {"symbol": "RSW_CFD.UK", "mean_reversion_score": 85, "selection_reason": "Strong overbought: +18.2% daily, +37% vs MA200, elevated vol 93%"}], "output_schema": {"actions": {"sell": [{"symbol": "string", "reason": "string"}], "hold": [{"symbol": "string", "reason": "string"}], "buy": [{"symbol": "string", "position_size": "number (currency amount)", "reason": "string"}]}, "portfolio_rationale": "string"}}
Output JSON
{
  "actions": {
    "buy": [
      {
        "reason": "Extreme oversold signal (score 95): -30.7% daily, -45% vs MA200, high vol 170%",
        "symbol": "FUTR_CFD.UK",
        "position_size": 3000
      },
      {
        "reason": "Severe oversold signal (score 90): -21.6% daily, -29% vs MA200, very high vol 260%",
        "symbol": "MCG_CFD.UK",
        "position_size": 3000
      }
    ],
    "hold": [
      {
        "reason": "Small unrealized loss (-0.9%); no overbought signal. Holding per mean-reversion thesis.",
        "symbol": "AML_CFD.UK"
      },
      {
        "reason": "Price flat vs entry; no signal. Maintaining position.",
        "symbol": "AUTO_CFD.UK"
      },
      {
        "reason": "Position flat; candidate data shows oversold but holding existing exposure.",
        "symbol": "CBG_CFD.UK"
      },
      {
        "reason": "Price flat vs entry; no signal. Maintaining position.",
        "symbol": "LRE_CFD.UK"
      },
      {
        "reason": "Price flat vs entry; no signal. Maintaining position.",
        "symbol": "MSLH_CFD.UK"
      },
      {
        "reason": "Price flat vs entry; no signal. Maintaining position.",
        "symbol": "OCDO_CFD.UK"
      },
      {
        "reason": "Down -5.8% but no overbought signal; holding for mean reversion.",
        "symbol": "PSN_CFD.UK"
      },
      {
        "reason": "Small unrealized loss (-0.7%); no overbought signal. Holding per thesis.",
        "symbol": "VTY_CFD.UK"
      }
    ],
    "sell": []
  },
  "portfolio_rationale": "Portfolio at 8/10 positions and 2.38x leverage (capacity to 3.0x). Two highest-scoring mean-reversion signals are oversold: FUTR (95) and MCG (90). Adding both positions uses remaining capacity (would reach 9-10 positions, 2.98x leverage). No current holdings show overbought signals requiring exit; small losses on AML/PSN/VTY held per mean-reversion strategy. Action constrained to 2 buys per run to avoid overtrading."
}
Selection logs
#946stage12026-04-02T11:03:34.383428+00:00
{
  "selected_stocks": [
    {
      "symbol": "FUTR_CFD.UK",
      "selection_reason": "Extreme oversold: -30.7% daily, -45% vs MA200, high vol 170%",
      "mean_reversion_score": 95
    },
    {
      "symbol": "CRST_CFD.UK",
      "selection_reason": "Extreme overbought: +24.9% daily, +18% vs MA50, high vol 158%",
      "mean_reversion_score": 92
    },
    {
      "symbol": "MCG_CFD.UK",
      "selection_reason": "Severe oversold: -21.6% daily, -29% vs MA200, very high vol 260%",
      "mean_reversion_score": 90
    },
    {
      "symbol": "CBG_CFD.UK",
      "selection_reason": "Strong oversold: -26.6% daily, -13% vs MA200, high vol 169%",
      "mean_reversion_score": 88
    },
    {
      "symbol": "RSW_CFD.UK",
      "selection_reason": "Strong overbought: +18.2% daily, +37% vs MA200, elevated vol 93%",
      "mean_reversion_score": 85
    }
  ],
  "rejected_common_reasons": [
    "Insufficient deviation from moving averages (<10% daily move)",
    "Mixed technical signals (not clearly overbought/oversold)",
    "Data quality issues: extreme volatility readings (>1000%)",
    "Sector concentration risk cannot be assessed (sector data missing)",
    "Earnings proximity unknown (cannot verify 5-day buffer)"
  ]
}